There is another Bearish BPR zone below the current price.BTC/USDT Market Update – Clear, Detailed, and Easy to Understand (Even for Beginners)
Let’s take a look at what’s happening with Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) right now explained in a way that even someone new to trading can follow along and understand.
Recently, Bitcoin hit a new high it was climbing up steadily. But then, due to negative global news related to war, the market took a hit and started dropping sharply.
Currently, BTC is trading at a (BPR) this is a technical area that often acts as a strong resistance zone, where the price tends to face rejection and reverse.
👉 Right now, Bitcoin is struggling to move higher and appears to be getting rejected from this BPR level.
But here’s where it gets more interesting:
🔻 There is another Bearish BPR zone below the current price, and the market has already touched that zone once before bouncing upward.
So what's the current situation?
📍 If Bitcoin is able to break above the current Bearish BPR (the level where it’s trading now) — it would be a bullish sign, and the market may start rising again.
📍 However, if BTC fails to break this resistance level, then we could see another strong move to the downside, possibly heading back to lower support zones.
🚨 Key Takeaway:
This level — the one BTC is currently interacting with — is very important.
📌 Traders should keep a close eye on it.
📌 Let the market reveal its direction before making any decisions.
Remember:
⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
WAR
Market Recap & Outlook – Nifty and S&P 500, Bulls coming?The Indian stock market witnessed a volatile week, with the Nifty 50 closing at 24,718, down nearly 300 points from the previous week's close. The index hit a high of 25,222 and a low of 24,473, moving precisely within the range of 25,500–24,500 that I highlighted last week. I hope some of you took advantage of the cautionary signal!
Key Support Zone in Focus
The 24,400 level continues to act as a strong support—bulls have fiercely defended this zone for the past five weeks. However, if this level cracks, we could see Nifty test deeper supports at 23,900 and 23,700.
Geopolitical Overhang
The ongoing Iran-Israel tensions remain a wildcard. Unless the situation escalates significantly, I expect Nifty to trade in the 24,400–25,200 range this week.
Short-Term Strategy
I believe the current selling pressure might persist for 2–3 more sessions before the bulls regain control. Historically, Nifty tends to stay under pressure until mid-June, followed by a bullish phase leading into mid-July. If we get more dips, I’ll be looking to accumulate quality mid-cap and small-cap stocks for potential short-term gains.
S&P 500 Update
The S&P 500 closed at 5,976, down just 25 points from the previous week. The index made a high of 6,059 and a low of 5,963, forming a bearish candle on the weekly chart.
Watch These Levels
If 5,963 breaks, expect further downside towards 5,899 and 5,875. On the flip side, a sustained move above 6,030 could ignite bullish momentum, targeting resistance zones at 6,090 and 6,142.
Final Take – Bulls Gearing Up?
The broader trend still favors bulls, especially if key support levels hold. Watch for a turnaround by mid-week—"Bulls may soon reclaim the throne!"
PLAINS - LONG TERM BUY OPPORTUNITY FOR 25%+ GAINSPLAINS ALL AMERICAN PIPELINE, L.P. (PAA) has been recovering from all-time lows at $3.00 per share in 2020 with a nice upward channel forming over the past 5 years. Expect some choppy price movements around $20.00 per share but once price breaks above, the next price target is $30.00 per share over the next few years. With uncertainty and war in the middle east, oil and oil stocks can be considered great investments, especially when the U.S. decides to invest more in producing oil domestically. Don't be surprised if the rise moves faster than anticipated if more uncertainty arises in the middle east.
Gold: silence on the charts—because the real money already movedThe gold market isn't reacting — it's confirming. The Israeli strikes on Iran? That’s the trigger. But the move started earlier. Price was already coiled, already positioned. All the market needed was a headline. And it got it.
Price broke out of the accumulation channel and cleared $3,400 — a key structural level that’s acted as a battleground in past rotations. The move from $3,314 was no fluke — it was a textbook build: sweep the lows, reclaim structure, flip the highs. Volume spiked exactly where it needed to — this wasn’t emotional buying. This was smart money pulling the pin.
Technicals are loaded:
— Holding above $3,396–3,398 (0.618 Fibo + demand re-entry zone)
— All major EMAs (including MA200) are now below price
— RSI strong, no sign of exhaustion
— Candles? Clean control bars — breakout, retest, drive
— Volume profile above price = air pocket — resistance is thin to nonexistent up to $3,450+
Targets:
— $3,447 — prior high
— $3,484 — 1.272 extension
— $3,530 — full 1.618 expansion — key upside target
Fundamentals:
Middle East is boiling. Iran is ready to retaliate. Israel is already escalating. In moments like these, gold isn't just a commodity — it's capital preservation. The dollar is rising — and gold still rallies. That means this isn’t about inflation, or rates. It’s about risk-off. Pure, institutional-level flight to safety.
Tactical view:
The breakout is done. Holding above $3,396 confirms the thesis. Pullbacks to that zone? Reloading points. While gold remains in the channel and momentum is clean, the only side that matters right now — is long.
When price moves before the news — that’s not reaction. That’s preparation. Stay sharp.
Israel VS Iran War: Oil Spike!Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated dramatically, with both nations engaging in direct military strikes. Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile factories, and military personnel. In response, Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israel, hitting Tel Aviv and wounding civilians
The conflict stems from long-standing hostilities, particularly over Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel views as an existential threat. The situation has drawn international attention, with the United States distancing itself from Israel’s actions while maintaining strategic interests in the region.
The escalation has raised concerns about a wider regional war, with analysts warning of unintended consequences and further retaliation. The global markets have also reacted, with oil prices surging amid uncertainty.
USOIL || Geopolitical Spike Hits Major Resistance - Watch $77.77🛢️
📅 June 13, 2025
👤 By: MJTRADING
🔍 🧭 Fundamental Context – Risk Premium on the Rise:
Crude oil surged sharply today following reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian territory — a move that reawakens fears of broader Middle East escalation. Iran plays a crucial role in OPEC and controls the strategic Strait of Hormuz , through which ~20% of global oil passes.
While Iran has not officially responded yet, markets are pricing in the potential for:
* Military retaliation
* Disruption of oil exports or maritime routes
* Heightened volatility across global risk assets
=======================================================
📉 📊 Technical Structure – Tag of Key Resistance at $77.7:
Price exploded upward, piercing the descending channel that's been intact since mid-2022.
Today's daily wick tagged the $77.70 level, a major horizontal resistance and channel top.
This zone has repeatedly acted as a pivot in both bullish and bearish phases.
Volume confirmed the move – highest daily volume in months, suggesting institutional reaction.
💡 Trading Outlook:
🔼 Scenario A – Breakout & Close Above $77.7 = Bull Continuation
If tomorrow closes firmly above $77.70:
Target 1: $88.88 supply zone
Target 2: $90.00 psychological resistance
Setup: Conservative entries on retest of $75–77 area with tight invalidation
🔽 Scenario B – Failed Breakout → Fade Back Inside Channel
If this was a headline-driven spike with no follow-through, bears may re-enter strongly
A close below $75 could confirm bull trap
Support zone to watch: $66.66 (mid-channel, EMA confluence)
⚠️ Risk Factors to Monitor:
Iran’s response (military, diplomatic, strategic)
US/NATO reaction to potential escalation
Strait of Hormuz disruption
OPEC commentary or Saudi-led output adjustment
Market sentiment unwind (profit-taking from overbought spike)
💬 Markets love emotion, but traders survive with structure. This is not the time to be reckless — size down, be responsive, and respect both breakouts and fakeouts.
📎 #CrudeOil #Geopolitics #OilSpike #WTI #MiddleEastTensions #Iran #IranIsrael #TechnicalAnalysis #MJTRADING
Uncertainty: The Dollar's Unexpected Ally?The recent strengthening of the US dollar (USD) against the Israeli shekel (ILS) serves as a potent illustration of the dollar's enduring role as a safe-haven currency amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. This trend is particularly pronounced in the context of escalating tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Investors consistently gravitate towards the perceived stability of the dollar during periods of global unrest, leading to its appreciation against more volatile and susceptible currencies, such as the shekel.
A significant driver of this dollar demand stems from the precarious security landscape in the Middle East. Reports detailing Israel's potential operation into Iran, coupled with the United States' proactive measures like authorizing voluntary departures of military dependents and preparing for a partial evacuation of its Baghdad embassy, signal Washington's anticipation of potential Iranian retaliation. Assertive declarations from Iranian officials, explicitly threatening US military bases and claiming intelligence on Israeli nuclear facilities, further amplify regional risks, compelling investors to seek the dollar's perceived safety.
Compounding this geopolitical volatility is the stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy. Hurdles persist not only over core issues, such as uranium enrichment and sanctions relief, but also over the basic scheduling of talks, with both sides expressing diminishing confidence in a resolution. The recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting, where the US and European allies introduced a non-compliance resolution against Iran, adds another layer of diplomatic tension, threatening increased sanctions or nuclear expansion and reinforcing the perception of a volatile environment that inherently strengthens the dollar.
These escalating tensions have tangible economic repercussions, further fueling investor flight to safety. The immediate aftermath has seen a significant increase in oil prices due to anticipated supply disruptions and a notable depreciation of the Iranian rial against the dollar. Warnings from maritime authorities regarding increased military activity in critical waterways also reflect broad market apprehension. During such periods of instability, capital naturally flows into assets perceived as low-risk, making the US dollar, backed by the world's largest economy and its status as a global reserve currency, the primary beneficiary. This flight-to-safety dynamic during major regional conflicts involving key global players consistently bolsters the dollar's value.
Follow Iran news to take advantage of USDCAD:Dear Traders,
follow Iran news! Really do that! Again, Trump negotiations could change everything!
How? It's all about oil! any war in the Middle east could rise the oil prices and Loonie will pump!
So, any bad news about the US-Iran negotiations, I'll take long trades with cautions. and I'll be ready to take short from any possible Zones.
If everything goes normal, I'm ready to take Long/Short after confirmation from the Green and the Blue zones.
Expectations: (Just for normal situations, A war in middle east I'll short the pair)
The Green zone is not suitable for short trades.
The White zone is not suitable for any trades.
After all, 71Billion $ for Canda economy is considerable. Persian Gulf is one of the most important energy hubs of the world.
Global Calm, Fiscal Storm: The Yen's Challenge?The USD/JPY currency pair has recently experienced a notable surge, driving the Japanese Yen to its weakest level against the US Dollar in a month. This appreciation primarily stems from a significant improvement in global risk sentiment, sparked by a breakthrough trade agreement between the United States and China. This deal, aimed at reducing the US trade deficit, has bolstered investor confidence and diminished the traditional safe-haven appeal of the Yen. Adding to the dollar's strength is the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish stance, signaling no immediate plans for interest rate cuts and reinforcing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets amidst easing concerns about a US recession.
Simultaneously, internal economic pressures in Japan significantly weigh on the Yen. The nation's public debt has reached an unprecedented high, driven by persistent increases in defense spending and social welfare costs due to an aging population. Government subsidies for energy bills and the need to issue more bonds to cover rising expenditures exacerbate this fiscal strain. This challenging domestic backdrop contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's position, creating a widening divergence in monetary policy outlooks that favors the US Dollar through yield differentials, despite the Bank of Japan's cautious consideration of future rate adjustments.
Furthermore, reducing global geopolitical tensions has contributed to the shift away from safe-haven currencies. Recent ceasefires and prospects for diplomatic talks in key conflict areas have encouraged a "risk-on" environment in financial markets. This increased appetite for riskier assets directly reduces demand for the Japanese Yen, amplifying the impact of fundamental economic factors and monetary policy divergence on the USD/JPY exchange rate. The pair's trajectory remains subject to evolving global dynamics, upcoming economic data releases, and central bank communications.
"Nifty 50 Chart Turns Cautious: Downside Risk Builds"1. **Rising Wedge Breakdown:**
* The index had been trading in a **rising wedge** pattern (purple converging lines).
* A **bearish breakdown** has occurred, suggesting potential for further downside.
* The price broke below the lower trendline with strong red candles and rising volume, validating the bearish move.
2. **Bear Flag Breakdown:**
* A smaller **bear flag** or **descending channel** pattern within the wedge broke down as well, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
3. **Support Zone Tested:**
* Price is currently hovering around a critical **horizontal support zone** between **24,081 – 24,240**, marked with black lines.
* The index is sitting just above this zone, and a clean break below could accelerate selling.
4. **Long-Term Uptrend Line:**
* A longer-term ascending trendline lies just below the current price (\~24,050 area).
* This could act as **last-resort dynamic support** before a larger correction.
---
* **Immediate Resistance**:
* 24,240 – Minor horizontal resistance
* 24,400 – Former support now turned resistance
* **Immediate Support**:
* 24,081 – Horizontal support
* 23,900–24,000 zone – Next key demand area
* 23,700 – Long-term trendline & psychological support
---
**Volume Analysis:**
* Recent volume spike on red candles indicates **stronger participation from sellers**.
* Bearish momentum is likely to continue unless volume dries up and bullish candles appear at support.
Review and plan for 9th May 2025 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Quarterly results.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
What is a war chest and lessons we can learn from Blackstone...In case you haven't heard, NYSE:BX is hogging over $100 billion of dry powder that is ready for deployment at the snap of a finger. Now, just because we cant get our hands on hundreds of billions of dollars doesn't mean that we shouldn't have a war chest of our own.
Why a war chest is a must have
Firstly, having dry powder ready for the next trading day could be the determining factor of a make or break trade. Specifically think back to when the current market downturn started. If I had to guess, many of you reading were far too exposed to the market and got scared from the "red wave" that shocked the market heatmaps. I would also like to bet that many of you sold positions for a loss to stop the bleeding and are now looking for a better entry. However, consider what would have happened if you had spare cash on your side to keep your positions alive.
Here is an example of over exposure.
And here's an example of keeping about a 20% war chest by your side...
I understand that it seems like a small amount of money, but trading is a game of pennies and a winning position of pennies is much better than a losing position of $140. This is the same tactic that firms like Blackstone use to protect large positions from poisonous events such as this recent downturn in the market. So in order to make money like a bank, we need to learn to think like a bank...
Gold Hits Fibonacci 3.618! What’s Next?GOLD (XAU/USD) Quick Analysis – April 2025
Gold just surged to $3,329/oz, reaching the Fibonacci 3.618 extension around $3,338 🚀
The trend remains strongly bullish, but the price is now extended far above key moving averages – signaling potential exhaustion.
Key Levels:
Support: $2,856 (Fibo 2.618)
Next Resistance: $3,635 (Fibo 4.236)
🧭 Outlook:
As long as price holds above $2,856 → the bullish structure remains intact
🎯 Strategy:
Wait for a healthy pullback → buy the dip near support
Or enter on a breakout-retest above $3,338 for potential continuation
What Happens to Global Markets When the Ukraine-Russia War Ends?What Happens to Global Markets When the Ukraine-Russia War Ends?
The end of the Ukraine-Russia war will undoubtedly impact major global markets,
here’s what we can expect:
Oil Market : With tensions easing, oil prices could drop as supply concerns lessen and sanctions ease. However, global demand could still keep prices stable or even high.
Gold Market : Gold, a safe-haven asset, might face a decrease in demand as geopolitical uncertainty fades, but if the end of the war leads to global economic instability, gold could remain a strong choice for investors.
Forex Market : The end of the conflict could boost the Euro and USD as stability returns to the market. At the same time, the Russian Ruble might face fluctuations as Russia’s economy adjusts to post-war conditions.
Crypto Market : Cryptocurrencies may see mixed reactions—some may retreat as confidence in traditional markets rises, but others could flow in if economic uncertainty continues to prevail globally.
🔮 The war's end could bring hope, but it also presents new challenges for markets worldwide. Stay tuned to see how it all plays out!
US-China Rift: India's Golden Hour?Heightened trade tensions between the United States and China, characterized by substantial US tariffs on Chinese goods, inadvertently create a favorable environment for India. The significant difference in tariff rates—considerably lower for Indian imports than Chinese ones—positions India as an attractive alternative manufacturing base for corporations seeking to mitigate costs and geopolitical risks when supplying the US market. This tariff advantage presents a unique strategic opening for the Indian economy.
Evidence of this shift is already apparent, with major players like Apple reportedly exploring increased iPhone imports from India and even accelerating shipments ahead of tariff deadlines. This trend extends beyond Apple, as other global electronics manufacturers, including Samsung and potentially even some Chinese firms, evaluate shifting production or export routes through India. Such moves stand to significantly bolster India's "Make in India" initiative and enhance its role within global electronics value chains.
The potential influx of manufacturing activity, investment, and exports translates into substantial tailwinds for India's benchmark Nifty 50 index. Increased economic growth, higher corporate earnings for constituent companies (especially in manufacturing and logistics), greater foreign investment, and positive market sentiment are all likely outcomes. However, realizing this potential requires India to address persistent challenges related to infrastructure, policy stability, and ease of doing business, while also navigating competition from other low-tariff nations and seeking favorable terms in ongoing trade negotiations with the US.
Temu's Price Magic: Shattered by Tariffs?PDD Holdings, the parent entity behind the popular e-commerce platform Temu, confronts a severe operational challenge following the recent imposition of stringent US tariffs targeting Chinese goods. These trade measures, particularly the dismantling of the "de minimis" rule for Chinese shipments, directly threaten the ultra-low-cost business model that fueled Temu's rapid expansion in the US market. The elimination of the previous $800 duty-free threshold for individual packages strikes at the core of Temu's logistical and pricing strategy.
The impact stems from newly enacted, exceptionally high tariffs on these formerly exempt low-value parcels. Reports indicate rates escalating to 90% of the item's value or a significant flat fee, effectively nullifying the cost advantages Temu leveraged by shipping directly from manufacturers in China. This fundamental shift disrupts the financial viability of Temu's model, which relied heavily on tariff-free access to deliver goods at minimal prices to American consumers.
Consequently, significant price increases for products sold on Temu appear almost inevitable as PDD Holdings grapples with these substantial new costs. While the company's official response is pending, economic pressures suggest consumers will likely absorb these charges, potentially eroding Temu's primary competitive advantage and slowing its growth momentum. PDD Holdings now faces the critical task of navigating this disrupted trade landscape and adapting its strategy to maintain its market position amidst heightened protectionism and geopolitical tension.
Will the Fear Gauge Flash Red?The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street's closely watched "fear gauge," is poised for a potential surge due to US President Donald Trump's assertive policy agenda. This article examines the confluence of factors, primarily Trump's planned tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions, that are likely to inject significant uncertainty into the financial markets. Historically, the VIX has proven to be a reliable indicator of investor anxiety, spiking during economic and political instability periods. The current climate, marked by a potential trade war and heightened international risks, suggests a strong likelihood of increased market volatility and a corresponding rise in the VIX.
President Trump's impending "Liberation Day" tariffs, set to target all countries with reciprocal duties, have already sparked considerable concern among economists and financial institutions. Experts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan predict that these tariffs will lead to higher inflation, slower economic growth, and an elevated risk of recession in the US. The sheer scale and breadth of these tariffs, affecting major trading partners and critical industries, create an environment of unpredictability that unsettles investors and compels them to seek protection against potential market downturns, a dynamic that typically drives the VIX upward.
Adding to the market's unease are the growing geopolitical fault lines involving the US and both China and Iran. Trade disputes and strategic rivalry with China, coupled with President Trump's confrontational stance and threats of military action against Iran over its nuclear program, contribute significantly to global instability. These high-stakes international situations, fraught with the potential for escalation, naturally trigger investor anxiety and a flight to safety, further fueling expectations of increased market volatility as measured by the VIX.
In conclusion, the combination of President Trump's aggressive trade policies and the mounting geopolitical risks presents a compelling case for a significant rise in the VIX. Market analysts have already observed this trend, and historical patterns during similar periods of uncertainty reinforce the expectation of heightened volatility. As investors grapple with the potential economic fallout from tariffs and the dangers of international conflicts, the VIX will likely serve as a crucial barometer, reflecting the increasing fear and uncertainty permeating the financial landscape.
Trump Zelensky and Putin Phone Calls
Hi, my name is Andrea Russo and I am a Forex Trader. Today I want to talk to you about how the recent phone calls between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin have had a significant impact on the financial markets, especially the Forex market.
In recent days, US President Donald Trump has had crucial phone conversations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. These talks have mainly focused on finding a truce in the conflict in Ukraine and stabilizing international relations.
Trump-Zelensky Phone Call
The call between Trump and Zelensky was described as "very good" by both leaders. During the conversation, Trump promised support for strengthening Ukraine's air defense, with a focus on the resources available in Europe. In addition, the possibility of the United States taking a role in managing Ukraine's energy infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants, to ensure greater security was discussed2. This has opened up hope for a partial truce, with technical negotiations expected in the coming days in Saudi Arabia.
Trump-Putin Call
The conversation between Trump and Putin, which lasted about three hours, touched on key issues such as the ceasefire and the need for lasting peace. Both leaders agreed on a path that includes a partial ceasefire on energy infrastructure and negotiations to extend the truce to the Black Sea. In addition, they discussed improving bilateral relations between the United States and Russia, with a focus on economic and geopolitical cooperation5.
Impact on the Forex Market
These developments had an immediate impact on the Forex market. The prospect of a truce strengthened the Russian ruble (RUB) and the Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH), while the US dollar (USD) showed slight volatility due to the uncertainties surrounding the negotiations. Investors reacted positively to the possibility of geopolitical stabilization, increasing demand for emerging market currencies. However, the market remains cautious, awaiting further details on the negotiations and the actual implementation of the measures discussed.
Conclusion
The phone calls between Trump, Zelensky and Putin represent a significant step towards resolving the conflict in Ukraine and stabilizing international relations. For Forex traders, these events offer opportunities but also risks, making it essential to closely monitor geopolitical developments and their implications on financial markets.
Europe - America War, Impact on Forex
Hello, my name is Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about an important issue that is shaking up the international market: the trade war between the European Union and the United States. Recently, the European Union responded to the duties imposed by the United States on steel and aluminum with countermeasures worth 26 billion euros. In response, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% duties on all wines, champagnes and spirits from France and other countries represented by the EU2.
This escalation of trade tensions will certainly have a significant impact on the FOREX market. Let's see together what the consequences could be:
Market Volatility: Trade tensions between two of the world's largest economies will increase the volatility of the FOREX market. Investors will seek safe havens, such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY), increasing the demand for these currencies.
Euro (EUR) depreciation: The euro could come under downward pressure due to concerns about the economic impact of tariffs on key EU sectors, such as wine. The reduction in exports of wine and other alcoholic products could negatively impact the EU's trade balance.
US dollar (USD) appreciation: The dollar could strengthen further, as investors view the US as a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty. However, the increase in tariffs could also lead to higher inflation in the US, complicating the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates.
Impact on the currencies of wine exporting countries: The currencies of major European wine exporters, such as the euro (EUR) and the Swedish krona (SEK), could come under downward pressure due to the decrease in exports to the US.
In conclusion, the tariff war between the European Union and the US will have a significant impact on the FOREX market. Investors will need to monitor developments closely and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. Stay tuned for more updates and market analysis!
Happy trading to all!
SPX to dump 30% - 50% for Inflated Expectations in 2026I like to say the narrative follows the price . This was bound to happen after such an overheated year, couple years. Blame whomever you want, in the end its your wallet if you aren't ready to have your expectations met.
Best case scenario, the breakout of macro is confirmed after the retest (blue arrows). Worst, more likely case, it smashes down to confirm a double bottom with a strong foundation to form a macro support. The sawtooth can provide opportunities for volatile scalps, but its gonna get gnarly I can already tell.