GOLD-(XAU): Fundamentals and Technicals Support This Next RUN
Fundamental Analysis:
It was always made clear to me that Gold is the "Safe haven" where money is shifted to in times of uncertainty and fear. Gold is also commonly bought to be used as a hedge. Take the tariff war that is currently going on between World Leaders, the increased tariff rates seem to have no limit. In return, the inflation to the US Dollar will have many people with their sights on Gold. A few examples of recent gold bull trends during down markets would be in 2002-2007 when the dollar fell drastically (40% against the euro). Gold also ran 240% in 2008 when the bank treasuries credit giveaways were discovered where gold found itself surging to $1,895 in 2011.
Technical Analysis:
The Markets were hit hard last week and during this time we saw Gold make a strong move to the upside, breaking out of its 3 month falling wedge to finish the corrective Wave 2/5. As we begin our impulsive wave 3 up, my fib measurement on this completion is sitting around 1450, where I believe we will be rejected for a corrective wave. I would like keep a close eye on the volume to see if it will pick up, However I see clear skies concerning the Volume Profile (VPVR).
WAR
BTC $7200 short targetVery short term, might reach for $11,284 again before retracing.
BTC's meteoric rise over 3 months was driven primarily by the US/China trade war.
Institutional money was pouring into BTC as a hedge against US/China trade war. (not because Wall Street has finally seen the light or whatever)
Immediately following announcement of the "truce" following the G20 meeting, Bitcoin has been in retreat.
Expect the retreat to slowly continue until there is a re-flare up of trade tensions or some sort of escalation. This is also the period where Altcoins should bloom.
Targets:
$9500 is a given (green trend line)
$8500 around July 21 could signal a short term reversal to $9700 before continuing lower.
$7200 target - .618 retace - Sometime during August or September 2019
Red box:
Late October 2019 through End of year:
4800-6200 (orange box) possible Trump's reelection odds look down a year ahead of the election.
$3k and below as some people have been calling for also becomes possible in this scenario.
But, Trump is almost certainly going to be re-elected and BTC will ultimately head to the moon as a result.
From there, it's only a question of when the trade war escalates into a shooting war.
China plays the long game, so my guess is they will attack US around 2022-2025.
Expect BTC to be over a million by then and the entire financial landscape forever changed.
AMD Bullish, Long, Fib+EW PredictionsrThis is not financial advise. For entertainment purposes only. MY OPINION
AMD has had some good news, and solid growth despite the trade war between US and China. Finding support at the .618 Fib retracement at the end of a rising wedge, especially to end the week or month, could spark a full breakout to the ATH of $47.50. However, when adjusted for inflation, that is $70.64 in today's USD. I'm setting next targets to watch between $36 and $42 if resistance is successfully broken here. Of course, this is all bearing that AMD continues to have few issues and the company stays profitable. Anything can happen over the course of a few years.
ARE INVESTORS PREPARING FOR WAR BREAKING OUT?What has Bitcoin and Lockheed Martin got in common? I show how both have been resistant in recent weeks to corrections in the S&P500, and one possible contributing factor. Why is any of this important? Well - war is a serious systematic risk to all traders and investors. (See disclaimer below).
Am I saying there is going to be a war? I am NOT! Am I predicting war? I am NOT !
So what I am saying is:
1. Fears of war - real war - could be one important contributing factor among several others, that drives people to put there value into a very volatile instrument such as Bitcoin. In other words investors and small people are so scared that they willing to sail very 'unpredictable seas'.
2. The gap up on Lockheed Martin at 23rd April was not closed. Price began following a parabolic curve that was resistant to the correction in the S&P500.
3. Lockheed Martin is without doubt about war. This is where the US Government will push their money when preparing for a war. Preparation for war does not mean war will happen!
4. You and I won't be told by the US Govt, ' Hey guys, we're going to war... get ready. '. These are very deep decision-making issues that happen well outside the knowledge of the public.
5. The gap up on 23rd April on LMT may be your only signal of what's possibly coming.
Previous post in April below:
FAT DISCLAIMER: This post is speculative. It is labelled 'long' only because the technical picture suggest further price advancement in the longer term based on the current 8H trend analysis. This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any other instrument. No liabilities accepted for your loss should you make decisions or feel influenced by this post. In other words, sue yourself if you lose your money.
Brink of War?The charts never lie..
Conflict between the West and Iran is brewing.. German jets go down an the media spit out instantly that two high tech military planes crashed into each other (yeah fucking right).. as certain parts of the internet go down (cloudflare and other services). Oil attack after Oil attack.. Digital attacks on Iran already targeting military objectives.
S&P500 looking weaker and weaker.
Bitcoin has been running parabolic for 3 months straight now.
Lockheed Martin about to break out (military contracting/high-tech weaponry defense company) ~ most likely due to Iran tensions / Brink of War?
Gold is absolutely surging now, which I've been saying to watch since Q3 2018. Gold runs during time of uncertainty, usually while S&P500 finds its triple top and retraces.
It's like watching a horror story in slow motion.
The US war machine is in a trade war with China.. Iran is China's biggest exporter for Oil.
Economy looks fucked. Don't get into too much debt hey?
There's a reason banks are barely lending at the moment.
BTC update and the week to comeThis an update to my previous ideas:
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin Dominace
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So, either way, BTC will reach all positive targets, it's only a question of which path it takes.
The short path (above green arrow trend line) or the medium path (below green arrow).
Thick red line is the decision line and I'm quite confident BTC will at least reach this level ($9000-93xx).
Positive talks or tweets however will likely be what sends BTC to .382 ($8136).
From there - support levels become
$8100
$7200
$6200
In this path, wave 3 of the larger impulse wave (blue elliot) will begin upon one of those supports with $6200 being the most likely reversal point.
Show me the charts, I'll tell you the news: Iran - US warLockheed Martin stock has often been a leading indicator to significant military escalations involving the United States. Now at the brink of a breakout, we could be dangerously close to a major geopolitical disaster.
My moral compass prevents me from profiting off of humanitarian tragedy and the blood of innocent human beings that will be spilled as collateral damage due to the actions of two arrogant regimes. So I will not be investing in this stock given the circumstances but I can't help but wonder how much John Bolton and Mike Pompeo and war hawks alike secretly own.
USA vs China / TRADE WAR $USDCNH ... Cup & Handle pattern right there in the bigger picture.
We then got a rising wedge shorter term. Why? Look at the #TradeWar and it makes perfect sense. Wait for confirmations and you got a safe setup right there ! The Trade War is going on and it´s getting harder and harder every week for both the USA and China. So guess where this pair might go?
Look at the very least for a 1:1 ratio or much more.
#Forex #Trading #FX #Finance #Money #Investing
THIS COULD BE A SIGN OF WARYou won't find much on this in traditional mainstream media outlets. They're usually late. Events unfolding in relation to the Strait of Hormuz are either hotting up or have already happened.
I've been tracking LMT for some time. I couldn't understand the sudden pulse on daily shares on 23rd April. I had wondered if it meant war started but nothing was in the mainstream media. What does LMT produce? Who fund them? Read up!
Well...well, the chatter come out of that region through non-traditional channels is that something is happening on the ground.
Then strangely yesterday I spotted moves on the eastern and western markets suggesting an about turn - across forex and market indices. You wouldn't have seen that unless you were looking across 10 min time frames.
What's next? Well I'm not a news channel. So, get going and do your own research. This is about systematic risk.
Golden week isn't over yet. Strangely the Yen is powering up madly and AUD is buckling. Think - outside 'the box'.
This post is speculative and may be totally wrong. Do not make financial decisions based on this. But you could get prepared if you find sufficient evidence. Getting prepared is about the biggest thing in trading.
US30 - Looking for SHORT? China over USA? - TRADE WAR - Looking for shorts. Overall strong /Head and Shoulders/ on D chart. In 4H chart we can see strong down move from 26700 and reflection at 25250. Putting a Fibonacci Retracement on those levels we see that it already pass 0.38 looking for 0.50, possiable 0.618.
Shorts from 0.50 and with same amount + 1/2 of the 0.50 volume at 0.618.
Happy Trading,
Cheers love the cavalry's here.
EURJPY: Trade War For My Account Also Welcome everyone to this new trading analysis on this Wednesday!
We are looking at the EURJPY pair on the 4h chart. Trade war between Trump and Xi is real.. Trump stated a few minutes ago that Xi from China offered something good between the deal.
Instantly all XXX/JPY pairs gained momentum to the upside. Good for my positions as im going to the worst trading week since im trading profitable. How is your trading during the trade war going? Any tips for become super focused on anything besides trading?
Comment Below.
Wishing everyone success and great weekend!
GBP/JPY... What is going on??!!The Pound against the Yen has been short for roughly around the beginning of November and puts pressure for the yen over the new year.
From research, this pair may continue to go down, and here is why. Firstly, the Nikkei 225 has significantly dropped by 17.53% from the 2nd of October to the 28th of December. Reasoning behind this is due to other variables affecting the yen such as the US and China trade war which gives concerning to what Japan may have to face when they trade with the United States on new policies. Especially since Japan is the 4th largest trading partner with the United States, rallying up on $204.1 Billion in 2017.
Britain on the other hand is more focused on Brexit, for those who do not know, Britain is wanting to leave the EU for more tougher immigration laws in order to strengthen the safety of the citizens from terrorism. There are many other reasons but this is the main highlight of why. Some people in Britain do not agree with some of the new policies and laws that the government is trying to put in place, including trade. Confident votes have been used in the government but Theresa May (current prime minister) still has passed in the votes.
Overall, both countries are in the downside at the current moment and we will have to see what 2019 awaits for us all but this evidentially results in a short sell position for short and long term.
Happy New Year everyone!
Gold plunges to 13 months low – Well done ABCD pattern!For the moment, gold is trading near $1,173 after placing a low of $1,160. It recently has formed a sort of a hammer candle pattern on the 2-hour chart. The hammered pattern followed by a strong bearish trend often causes a bullish reversal. That being said, can we expect a bullish reversal?
I wish I could say yes, but gold is still bearish and the violation of $1,181 has opened further room for selling until $1,157 and $1,131. But since the metal is in oversold zone, we may see a bullish retracement in it until $1,181 and $1,187. Stay tuned for more updates!