Get started

WAR

Natural Gas - Set to Fly High with the Dollar?Weekly Long Position on AMEX:BOIL A new major low was observed in this market on May 30th The security of interest is $NYMEX:NG1!. Using a leveraged product AMEX:BOIL to gain exposure to a potential short-term movement, as a continuation of a long-term trend. See below the chart of $NYMEX:NG1!. Commodities, equities, and other assets priced in US Dollars are subject to relative foreign-exchange changes, as realisation of risk is highly complex in globalised markets. The price of NYMEX:NG1! represents some relationship to an almost infinite supply of financial products, as capital moves around the interconnected world. For example, Iran is not apart of SWIFT and must exchange assets to engage in trade with other nations. Their crude oil is paid for in gold. However the 'zero-risk' benchmark for both these commodity products, NYMEX:CL1! and COMEX:GC1! , are priced in US Dollars. As the relative strength of the US Dollar fluctuates, asset prices too will fluctuate even without alteration to any of the fundamental dynamics of the market in question. Martin Armstrong has established himself the foremost expert on 'Capital Flow Analysis'. See below the chart of COMEX:GC1! , FX:USDCHF , ECONOMICS:USCPI Important to note is the lack of direct correlation between Gold priced in US Dollars, and US Dollar domestic inflation (CPI). Contrary to the assertion of many analysts, gold responds directly to sovereign-related risk. The 'relative-value' of gold at the time of each major high reflects price discovery across all asset classes, though we can only view one time-price continuum on a chart. With that in mind, see below the chart of TVC:DXY and a few commodities. All these markets demonstrate various correlations to one another, there is a general trend that can be observed. As the capital flows persisting from Feb 2022 onwards reflect a shifting global investment outlook, towards high-quality assets. Over the course of the last few financial crises, the safe place for capital was US sovereign debt, in the form of Treasuries. As the plumbing of the two-tier global banking system is operated by the US Federal Reserve, highly liquid money markets keep the USD afloat in times of financial stress. However, this has not always been the case. During the Great Depression, the contraction of capital (deflation) was so severe that physical, paper US Dollars were the global asset of choice for security. Capital formation could continue once the price of gold was un-pegged from the dollar, to properly reflect price discovery in the newly minted global economy. Energy markets have become particularly chaotic over the last 16 months, as Russia plays an important role, particularly in Europe where a network of pipelines has become a security issue. Heavy sanctions have been placed on Russia, as well as an outright ban of a large quantity of its exports. Russia, having control over Ukraine's direct access to the ocean, has returned the favour. Resulting in a disruption in markets from wheat, and lumber, to gold and neon. With the Nordstream projects in critical condition, Europe's energy fragility should be of great concern, both domestically and to its allies. Among the sanctions, is a 'price cap' on the price of crude oil for export at $60/barrel. See chart of NYMEX light crude, and European brent crude. For those not aware, these represent relatively "raw" product exchanged on global markets. Crude must be refined to produce products like gasoline, diesel, lubricants, etc. As with any attempt to artificially manipulate the price of an asset, this presents arbitrage opportunity. Since December when this was imposed, China and India have reportedly been buying Russian crude, refining and exporting it. Russia has spent years purging US Dollar exposure from its energy markets, as war in the Middle East has steadily grown tension between the two powers. Foreign exchange markets are very sensitive to volatility, and can respond unpredictably to major shifts in trend. The consequences of capital moving around the globe quickly can be devastating, see FX_IDC:USDRUB , TVC:US10Y , and TVC:MOVE the US bond market volatility index, compared. All markets must respond to price action, as real risk remains deeply concealed. All while this is going on, global shipping has become significantly more expensive. Meaning the logistical element of global energy markets has become very convoluted. From cheap oil sitting on tankers, to arbitrage of diesel products, to ships transferring oil between one another to conceal Russian oil, to leveraged oil ETFs, the dynamics of NYMEX:CL1! have become almost unfathomably complicated. So to return to NYMEX:NG1! , the value of this product lies in simplicity. The current price can only be assumed to properly reflect global monetary conditions, as a dramatic correction can be observed. The art of business, is buying what nobody wants and selling it when everyone wants it. So much focus in finance at the moment is pointed towards the Federal Reserve and its attempted manipulations of the interest rate on US Dollars. Why this is taking place however, is a subject that has avoided capturing attention. The Federal Reserve is attempting to combat WAR INFLATION by creating deflation domestically, supported by capital flows from abroad. Flight to quality will take place independent of any institutional power, by offering a higher rate of return on Treasuries the Fed is more likely to be able to reduce its balance sheet, and support NATO's war efforts. In order to pay troops, send equipment offshore and make loans to Ukraine, capital must leave the borders of the United States, to the sum of trillions, creating massive inflation globally. So to clarify, global capital is fleeing towards the United States. However, the only sources of capital formation in the United States are financialization, and war. Stagflation, thought to be impossible, has returned to the world. As such, equity and asset prices can continue to rise, without actually rising in relative value globally, since the same will occur in the sum of tanks, aircraft, etc, moved around the world. A zero-sum game. The fact of the matter is that the world is going to need natural gas - and a lot of it at that. The current domestic investment climate can't adequately adjust for this, the dominant psychological trends in markets push capital down paths which are facilitated by political means, for example 'Environmentally Safe Governance'. Exploration of gas reserves and extraction of energy products has become very unpopular in the last decade, to the unfortunate dismay of anyone who hopes to drive car or live in a heated home in the next decade. Of note, that besides the US and Canada the largest producers and exporters of natural gas are apart of, or close to the influence of BRICS. Any global conflict which takes place, will first manifest itself in global financial markets, and there is lengthy historical precedent for this. Europe, which has its gas supplied from abroad is completely exposed to market energy prices, as well as the logistical risk of actually supplying said gas. A precarious position to be in, as war knocks on their door. Immediately after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the world saw a vision of the future flicker as gasoline prices skyrocketed. Reality as we know it in the industrialised depends on simple global logistics, and cheap energy prices. Both of these constructs are crumbling very quickly, and cannot be resolved until a settlement is made between Ukraine and Russia. Money printing and sanctions cannot make more natural gas appear, nor get it across the ocean cheaply. I propose a trade on AMEX:BOIL , to gain exposure to volatility in Natural Gas markets. Lines of support/resistance represent the arbitrary price points I suggest may be relevant, and can be used for entry/exit and position management.
BLong
by FPS_Denny
War Giants Greed: Secret Military Industrial Complex TechnologyThe War on Terror: A Cash Infusion: "The global War on Terror" Massive air quotes , initiated in 2001 following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, led to a substantial surge in defense spending, especially by the U.S. This created an economic windfall for defense companies, fuelling their research and development initiatives. Black Budget Projects: Part of the military's classified "black budget" is allocated to defense companies for top-secret projects. This could include advanced propulsion systems, stealth technology, energy weapons, and yes, even so-called anti-gravity technology. Alien Technology Reverse-Engineering: Some conspiracy theories propose that defense companies have recovered crashed extraterrestrial spacecraft and are reverse-engineering their technology for military purposes. This narrative often ties back to the infamous Roswell incident in 1947, where it's suggested that debris from an alien spacecraft was collected and studied. UFOs as Military Aircraft: Another common theory suggests that some UFO sightings are actually sightings of advanced, top-secret military aircraft developed by defense companies. In this theory, the strange movements and high speeds of these UFOs can be explained by undisclosed technological advancements. Government and Corporate Secrecy: Conspiracy theories often hinge on the idea of widespread secrecy among governments and corporations. Theorists suggest that these entities possess advanced technology (possibly of extraterrestrial origin) but keep it secret for reasons of national security, profit, or control. Area 51 and Skunk Works: Area 51, a classified remote detachment of Edwards Air Force Base, is often mentioned in conspiracy theories. Lockheed Martin's Skunk Works, known for developing groundbreaking aircraft like the SR-71 Blackbird and the F-117 Nighthawk, is also rumored to test new technologies there. These rumors fuel theories of secret advanced technology development. Advanced Technology Suppression: Some theories suggest that highly advanced technologies, such as zero-point energy or anti-gravity, have been discovered and are being suppressed by defense companies, the military, or powerful elites. The rationale behind these theories varies, but common themes include maintaining control over the populace and protecting established industries. 1. Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT): $95 billion 2. Boeing Co (BA): $132 billion 3. Raytheon Technologies Corp (RTX): $134 billion 4. Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC): $57 billion 5. General Dynamics Corp (GD): $44 billion 6. L3Harris Technologies Inc (LHX): $42 billion The U.S. Department of Defense only represents a portion of these companies' business, as they may also have contracts with other parts of the government, as well as with foreign governments and private entities. For example, in 2020, Lockheed Martin reportedly received $75 billion in contract obligations from the U.S. government, --Boeing received about $28 billion --Raytheon about $27 billion --Northrop Grumman about $19 billion --General Dynamics about $15 billion --L3Harris about $9 billion. These figures are for one single year and only for U.S. government contracts.
NYSE:NOC
by MichaelBsul
1
What to watch in Q21. Any more bank failure? Bank crisis stabilized after UBS takeover Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank had been injected deposit to restore confidence. We can’t rule out any bank failure in Q2, especially the collapse of Lehman Brother was after the rescue of Bear Stearns. Having said that, the material different between now and the global financial crisis is the asset quality, that the subprime loan is basically at default while the long-term treasury and MBS many banks are holding now can recoup the floating loss if they can be held until maturity. Situation will improve with time. The drop of treasury yield because of risk aversion is also a self-cure mechanism that reduce the floating loss, and lower depositor’s incentive to move money out from banking system. Therefore, the level of Treasure yield is an important factor to determine whether a bank run might occur again, since higher yield means bigger deposit outflow to seek better yield return and a bigger loss of bank asset. The resurge of yield will worsen the sentiment and dampen confidence. Another good indictor is the size of emergency funding facilitates that Fed is providing to banks. If there is a sudden increase on the size, this could imply there might be another bank in trouble. 2. How lending be impacted after the bank crisis? Although Fed set the policy rate, it is the Bank to lend money in a rate they desire to the business and individual. In order to improve and avoid further deterioration of asset quality, Bank might take a more conversative approach in lending. The outflow of deposit also reduced Bank’s ability and willingness to lend. Since FDIC is asking Banks to pay the bill for saving SVC and Signature Bank, together with US government is seeking a tighter regulation for banking sector and many bank need to increase deposit rate to keep deposit, higher capital/operating cost might make Bank more selective and ask for higher lending rate to compensate the cost, that is not good for the whole economy. 3. Inflation trend? Even OPEC+ surprised the market by cutting production that boost price, Energy should still strongly pressure headline inflation downward in Q2, especially on a YOY basis. NYMEX WTI crude oil above $100 most of the time in Q2 2022 and reached $123. Compare to current energy price, there will be an obvious negative impact in headline inflation. The delayed effect of lower property price and rent should also drive the inflation lower. We have seen some signs of lower service inflation, and if banking crisis harm business confidence, we might see a less tight employment market and a less wages growth. Despite OPEC+ action might make thing a little bit complicated, we might still see some decent drop in inflation in Q2. 4. Fed to end hiking cycle after May’s meeting? May could be the last hike in this cycle. As mentioned, the inflation is cooling down and bank crisis will hurt the economy. Fed will also avoid hiking rate too much that will drive the Treasury yield up that might refuel the bank crisis. February Core PCE is trending lower, so as long as inflation doesn’t accelerate, a full stop of hiking cycle after May’s meeting will be a reasonable bet. 5. Recession possibility? Inverted yield curve and ISM survey pointed to recession. Q2 could be the turning point of economy growth and we might see some slowdown. Recession has become base case scenario to many investors and they will allocate their asset and conduct trading strategy accordingly. If inflation under control and GDP growth, probably in Q3, recorded a deeper-than-expected negative growth, Fed might start easing by the end of this year. 6. End of War? Russia-Ukraine war could enter the decisive phase in Q2 when Ukraine could launch the counter attack in Spring. It is very hard to predict the outcome but assuming Russia lost the war, the geopolitical ecosystem might be rewritten as well as the regime. How ally of Russia react is also highly unpredictable. With interest rate hike cycle coming to the end, there might be more rooms for Treasury yield to go lower. This will benefit growth stock so Nasdaq might outperform Dow again, adding to the gap built in Q1. Recession fears is not friendly to most of the commodities (except gold), and any big change on War might mean a lot to many cyclical commodities such as oil, natural gas, nickel and more. Good Luck and Good Trading in Q2. Disclaimers Above information are for illustration only and there is no guarantee on the accuracy of the information. They should not be treated as investment recommendations or advices. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com gopro/
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by FOTrading
1
Natural Gas and the Dangers of Swing Trading Leveraged ETFsThinking that the war in Ukraine would cause the price of natural gas to surge higher over the winter, many traders got stuck on the wrong side of a trade. Natural gas futures have plunged more than 90% over the winter. In this video, I explain that regression analysis was warning that a significant price decline was imminent in late 2022, and I explain that it is now suggesting that a bounce in natural gas prices may soon occur. This video also explains the pitfalls that many novice traders experience when trying to swing trading leveraged ETFs that employ derivatives and which undergo volatility drag over time. Here is the link to the risk-reward / win-ratio spreadsheet that is referenced in the video. docs.google.com Shared with permission from @HeWhoMustNotBeNamed Note for stats nerds: The log-linear regression channel indicator does not give negative numbers for the Pearson correlation coefficient (r). The indicator gives the absolute value of the Pearson correlation coefficient |r|. So if the correlation is strongly negative or strongly positive, it will appear near 1 in both cases. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
B
by SpyMasterTrades
54
USA is in serious troubleChina , India, Russia, Iran , Saudi Arabia and Brazil made an agreement contract to ditch U.S. dollar; the United States are in serious trouble.. If other country are joining with them then it will be the End of United States and Biden needs to do something about it and how US will react to it and it won’t end well. More banks are collapsing and more rumors said that US are running out of money. Will the USA will declare war against China ? World War 3 is getting closer. China and Russia became the most dangerous alliance.
N
by JoyBoyVegae
2
GOLD TRIPLE TOP - WAR END?All eyes are on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Russia that begins on Monday. During the three-day visit, the leaders of the two nations will discuss the deepening of economic and political cooperation as well as the war in Ukraine. If this meeting tends to reach a diplomatic solution to end Russia-Ukraine war then Gold will see a massive sell-off. Also, FED is very likely to add a 25BPS to reach 5% interest rate, kinda expected but it brings more pain to markets. I will keep updating this, follow to get alerts 🔔
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by dogofwallstreets
Long term Golds, a cup of moon tea anyone?My idea is given that the Cup and Handle pattern is a classic bullish pattern and is one repeated in golds historical price we appear to be a very bullish long term gold signal in the next coming months.. We can also take into account the convergence of the cups curve and a potential breakout area for the end of a falling wedge and rising upward trend also when we look at the date for when we expect to see the rise in price for Gold there is reported to be planned Military action from Russia against Ukraine, even if war doesn't break out there will be rises in tension especially as Bidden has publicly shown support for the Ukraine and Putin is talking about all out war without Americas capitulation on Ukrainian Sovereignty.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ChimeraBearBull
🧯 There is WAR on Bitcoin 💣🔥I will remain Long no-matter what. That's a personal opinion that won't change. In the video i talk news, inflation, job report today. Let me know yourthoughts. Links: 1. Biden war on BTC miners: cointelegraph.com 2. Powell war on Bitcoin: decrypt.co 3. SEC failure to safeguard the Crypto industry which i cover earlier this week (Silvergate and FTX): Combine the 3 and we have this: OPEN WAR! They hate it and they need the money to go elsewhere. that's their interest...not necessarily mine interest or yours. DATA/METRICS: NFP was positive today but unemployment rose so it evens it out. Dollar failed to rise and was a good day for Gold: www.fxstreet.com Nobody talks about average hourly earnings report today which for me is important: 'wages inflation was lower' if I can say it in a simple way: wages cool www.ft.com Wage price spiral avoided..Great news www.investopedia.com As data came out, the CME revised the possibility of a 0.50% rate hike to lower: www.cmegroup.com At the same time banks taking a beating: twitter.com CPI next week will be HUGE! I expect lower inflation, since energy prices did not pump and wages did not rise. Hopefully next week we have good news..pray! When Banks take a beating I like to hold Bitcoin. personal opinion and experience: Can we revisit 18k? Yes, it's possible now Can BTC go to zero? That also is a possibility Will some ALTS got o zero? For sure some will! Will some ALTS succeed? Again, for sure some will! Do I remain Bullish on BTC? That is a personal statement and mu humble opinion. After all i can wait.... it looks like the Feds and the US government can't. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR PS. Thank GOD i have a forex account...got saved by Gold this week. Still, very unhappy and FED up with people. Never fed up with Bitcoin.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
5
What commodities will move in the 2nd year Russia-Ukraine War Russia-Ukraine War entered the second year. Most of the commodities skyrocketed after the invasion had returned to or below the pre-war level. Energy is the market focus but the price dropped below the pre-war level and might not have enough geopolitical moment to rebound unless the war fully escalates and spreads to other countries. The weakness of wheat price might reverse if Russia refuse to renew the export deal. Energy products are the main focus in this war since Russia is the world’s key energy exporter. NYMEX WTI crude oil price started from USD92.10 as of the close of 23 Feb 2022, and reached an intraday high of USD130.5 per barrel in March. NYMEX Natural gas is even more volatile, jumped from USD4.623 per MMBtu to reach over USD10 in August. However, despite the sanction and price cap imposed by western countries, the energy exports from Russia maintained at high level, and European winter weather is relatively mild together with the effort to secure supply from non-Russia energy sources, the supply and demand situation is much less bad than many had feared, and the energy price retreated significantly and dropped below pre-war level. As of 24 Feb 2023, NYMEX Natural gas closed at USD2.548, while NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at USD76.32. Assuming the war are restricted in Ukraine and haven’t spread to other European countries, the war will no longer have a material impact on energy price. Western countries don’t want to shut down Russia’s energy supply completely, they just don’t want Russia to make a lot of money from energy exports to finance the war. The ideal situation is Russia selling cheap oil and gas to global market. In fact, Russia is still exporting a lot of their energy products to China and India, and the reduced demand from them in the global market pressured the price. I can’t predict the outcome of a war, but a win by Ukraine might further pressure the energy price since Russia might probably need to aggressively sell their energy for war compensation and rebuilding the country. Even the war maintains the status quo for an extended period of time, it will not stimulus the energy price like last year since many countries had already reduced the reliance on Russia’s energy. What I worry more is grain price. Russia and Ukraine together are supplying one third of global wheat. Many of the Ukrainian grain planted in the Southern and Central part of the country, that had been seriously affected by war. Ukrainian grain exports dropped nearly 30% in the last marketing year. Not only the plantation area will be affected, all the input including labour, fertilizer and chemical supply are also affected, not to mention the harvest and the logistic to export the grain. Grain export deal with Russia is expiring on 19 March, whether Russia will renew it could be a catalyst for market movement, and the lower price of Ukrainian grain because of this uncertainty might also reduce farmer’s willingness to plant wheat. Russian grain production hasn’t been affected yet; in fact, the harvest of wheat is pretty good. When energy crisis didn’t realize, whether Russia will weaponize grain will need further monitor. At this moment, grain export is not targeted by western countries, so Russia might try to export as many grains as possible to improve their financial situation, but if the war situation turned sour, I can’t rule out the possibility of some form of export ban which might make the inflation situation in western countries more complicated. CBOT wheat price started from USX 884.75 as of the close of Feb 23, and reached an intraday high of USX 1363.5 per bushel in March. As of 24 Feb 2023, it closed at USX 721.75. Of course, the weakness could also be explained by bumper crop from Australia and an expected high US production in the coming year. Technically USX 712.5 is an important support, and RSI is approaching oversold level. We might consider a long position @ 715, stop loss @ 680, target @ 800. Disclaimers Above information are for illustration only and there is no guarantee on the accuracy of the information. They should not be treated as investment recommendations or advices. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by FOTrading
OIL going to make BIG move soon1/2 We sold most longs in #OIL, trailing position left Been going long $UCO & shorting puts @ lows We want back in, why? There's something brewing in middle east area More on this later Chart is too much, explain in next post $USO $CVX $XOM $MPC $SUN - 2/2 Short term #oil is on a slight uptrend (white) It also more recently trades in channel (yellow) Longer term it's HUGE Head & Shoulder (top) If there is #war is larger conflict in middle east $UCO & oil will rally hard However, if there's nothing, it'll crater, temporarily
NYMEX:CL1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Dont be fooled by the pump!!!!!Bitcoin has no value. Its value is made by human emotions. What happens when humans enter the depressive state of mind? Bitcoin will no longer be supported nor be interesting. Last time I posted on Bitcoin, I said that the narrative that would drive the price down was corona. And i quote: "With this corona bullshit..." This time the narrative will change. WAR and INFLATION will drive bitcoin down this time. WAR and INFLATION will make people enter a depressive state of mind. DXY will be pumped (WAR will cause this) = Bitcoin dumped. Short the next pump to 25k and join me on this ride to the ashes. "What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun." Ecclesiastes 1:9 Thank you!
Short
by Chew5Gum
8
The 1. Chapter of Darktrace - 2 Long scenariosTwo scenarios where i plan to go long: Fundamentals: Darktrace provides mostly solutions for cyber security and could profit from the current atmosphere (Ukraine etc.) Scenario 1 (Blue arrow) Target: Next resistance level (upper red rectangle) Requirments: - retake of first resistance level (lower red rectangle) - generating higher highs on the 1 hour chart after retake Invalidation: - Fall under first resistance level (lower red rectangle) after retake AND generating lower low swings on the 1 hour chart Scenario 2 (Orange arrow) Target: Next resistance level (line level 1) Requirments: - Retest of former s/r level (line level 2) Invalidation: Added to long term hold stocks if it should fall deeper Good luck
DLong
by a_tale_of_bulls_and_bears
Raytheon Technologies: 3 Line Strike at PCZ of Bearish CypherThe Defense Sector in general seems to be overhyped as if it expects earnings not to matter anymore but the PE/Ratios keep rising as if it's betting on the US to enter a direct armed conflict rather than reality which is that we are simply just providing old unused equipment to the Ukraine. I think in the near future the market will realize this and we will see prices on these kinds of stocks got lower as the PE Ratios compress just like every other speculative growth stock has done during the cycle.
NYSE:RTXShort
by RizeSenpai