Trendline support for OilOil is back at a very strong trendline dating back to Q4 2021. Brent Oil has seen flows in and out by speculators as they assess the damages caused by the russian invasion.
This weekend, social media was filled with horrific videos and photos of the damages and a trail of murder of unarmed civilians in Bucha, Ukraine by russian troops and this could push sanctions against Russia even further affecting energy prices.
On the other hand, last week, the US has signaled a release of oil from the strategic reserves to ease supply and lower the price of oil. The price is yet to reflect this on the global oil prices and we will see this come into focus over the next two months.
In my opinion, I expect Brent to drift higher in April but it is unclear if the price will cross the highs reached in the last quarter.
Should the price drop below the trend line, the 50 day MA will offer some support and I will be monitoring on the sidelines.
WAR
Bitcoin Capitulation May 2022It takes on average 400 days for Bitcoin to go from cycle peak to 200 weekly moving average. Last two cycles after cycle peaks we found a bottom at the 200 weekly will it be different this time round?
It would definitely be different this time round if Bitcoin does not put in a bottom at the 200 weekly at this point. The week of May 23rd 2022 would be 406 days since the cycle top April 2022.
The top in April 2022 was the true cycle top the one that followed after was just pure manipulation , that run to 70k was just a trap , with only half of the Bitcoin address active for that run , price still managed to get to all time high and like clockwork the 7-10 year old wallets come in again and sell a massive amount of Bitcoin creating yet another Bitcoin top. So yeah that run was created by the few ,there was no hype , no retail just whales. Take a look at the link below of on-chain data.
ibb.co
Its important to note that Bitcoin has never closed a weekly under the 200 weekly moving average but has wicked down twice below it on average 30% , so a worst case/black swan scenario would take Bitcoin down to as low as 14k and close that week at 22k coming May 2022.
gold the next big rush and why people dont understand yet*shortwhile the world is distracted and panicking about silver and gold my recommendation, is to avoid and not to day trade. pick a conviction and stick with it. as for me i have watch read countless people ideas. best thing to come out of our current hyper-financialization world is we get real-time data and information. that way i look at charts is the emotion of the market. and just like any relationship you generally have an idea of how its going and how its going to end up, unless ur blinded by bias. so to make this short is that what's going to happen in the future is already determined and as we progress we find fewer possibilities of that outcome happening.
so reasons why gold and commodities will be the best asset to own.
1) try to go a week without the plastic card( maybe your bank flag a purchase and froze you card) happen to me yesterday. how much cash do you have or are you reliant to wait on your phone to get in touch with the bank.
2) with the ease of getting credit, asset prices have ballooned homes, stocks, credit cards. interest rates will rise this is a fact. the best way is to look at other countries and see what they are doing. generally they will all be copying each other.
3) when u realise that sp500 is misleading index fund that we all not is not top 500 companies split equally but is actually top 10 percent holds majority stake. and that this boom in is fuel by big tech optmisum. in the wise words of benjamin graham from the intelligent investor. tech stocks grow the most and fastest and they also crash the most and fall the greatest. we all saw netlix crash and yeah was bad it will come up before a more devastating crash. but that is just one example of what is to come.
4) this year marks where boomers will be retiring more than working. congrats to them gonna suck when their retirement fund can only afford to buy a Bannan once a month. they wont lose their money outright cause that would cause violence but instead will devalue their worth in time over the course of 10 years. people who move their savings into commodities will be saved from this devastating loss and gold just happens to be the most convenient and easiest method and best all around.
5) with the world being less trusting of each other, and becoming more reliant on themselves. the demand for each other currency will be a fraction of what it once was. thus will result eventually in a commodity-based asset exchange unit, that is easy to move and store and won't expire, and cannot be cheated.
7) the world is heading towards violence and 70+ years of pentup peace will eventually crash and burn. we know thur history when conflict arises and we are getting there but we are far from actual conflict. a big indicator is when excessive food supplies is being stored up. no major nation has done this yet.
here are just a few examples of why i belive gold will do well and in a predictable manner. don't get hyped into the fear.
these are my ideas and as always stay rational
Weakly SOS (sign of strength) RADA #RADA Electronic Industries Ltd., a defense #technology company, #develops, manufactures, markets, and sells #defense electronics to various air #forces and companies worldwide. It offers digital video/audio/data recorders; high definition digital video/audio/data recording for fighter and trainer #aircraft; a range of head-up-displays color video cameras for fighter aircraft; and various ground debriefing solutions. The #company also provides avionics solutions, such as mission data recorders and debriefing solutions and HUD video cameras; and avionics for unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) comprising interface control processors, engine control computers, payload management computers, and others.
In addition, it offers land-based tactical radars for defense forces, critical infrastructure protection, border surveillance, active military protection, and counter-drone applications. The company was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in Netanya, #Israel.
#nyse #nasdaq #trend #military
Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown : Another Run?Hello,
We will entertain the idea of another Bitcoin push towards higher levels as weekly candles are closing strong bullish. However, during these times strong catalysts can change price direction at any moment. It's best to focus on day/intraday trading rather than long-term swing trading during these times. Refer to our last chart for those trades.
You can see we are creating a similar price structure that occurred during July - August 2021.
Enjoy!
BNB Chart with Whole World
SHORTLY;
There is no problem with the market's current situation. Most crypto charts are doing well. I chose to explain it with BNB TA. I don't talk about it for a while. I want to talk with a different perspective and then we can see a lot more for the future.
Again, eyes should be on Asia-Pacific's political events. I want to talk with different perspectives to the whole world.then we can apply it whole market include oil, gold, silver etc.
(China-Taiwan-India-Japan-Australia)
WHY EYES SHOULD BE ON ASIA-PACIFIC?
(with a simple and short way to explain)
Most reports now (and in previously shared reports), say, China's GDP will reach approximately $33-40 Trillion by 2030.
HSBC Long-Term Global GDP Rankings by 2030 (first 3)(which is published September 2018)
-China
-USA
-India
Lowy Institute World GDP Forecast by 2030 (first 3) :
-China
-USA
-India
Standard Chartered Largest Economies by 2030 (first 3)
-China
-USA
-India
etc..
Please scroll up and read results of reports again (first 3) because I think you didn't understand it, yet.
So, I don't believe Pentagon (which annual budget of $752.9 billion in 2022) will let it be. If USA will let it -I think won't- China's Silk Road (which is starts in China to (with Bering Strait) USA, even Africa! you confused, right? Most institutions (and current drawed maps) think this road only starts in China, ended in England-Rotterdam but it's not) take everything on the world..
I end this with a quote "you become what you understand" -Soren Kierkegaard.
Take Care Everyone.
ATTENTION:
This is only my forecast, don't take this as any financial advice, it's just my research and opinion. always do your own research! not financial advice.
Big Whale!! Pumping New ATH???Weekly Time-frame
The largest Canadian Bitcoin ETF is hitting back-to-back all-time highs with respect to its BTC holdings as inflows intensified. Bullish news. We are still holding the area of supply zone. If we turn it to demand zone we can rally again in the following days.
1D Time-frame
We are going to have some correction today or might be the beginning of the drop base drop. Crypto greed and fear index is now at #51. AO is still bullish and RSI is still bullish. We are still in the supply area if we turn this to base the we can rally again next week.
4H Time-frame
AO is bullish and is currently correcting. RSI is bullish. Tanken Sen is now supporting the candle. Next support is in Kijun Sen at $43,000.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. [/i
Bears Are Giving Up Already?Weekly Time-frame
Awesome Oscillator is already bullish we printed green volume for weekly volume. We are about to test the supply area were we always get a rejection, if we hold this time it can flip it and turn it to base and start another rally to the upside.
1D Time-frame
Greed and Fear index is now #31 which is fear only. seems like we are holding on this area and we are gonna start pumping again as we have printed a bullish engulfing candle pattern.
RSI is also bullish above its Moving Average (MA). We are currently resting in the demand zone that is why we are bouncing as we touch the $42,000. Supply Area that needs to turn as Demand Area is in $43,000 - $46,000. If we touch the demand area we can expect more to the upside.
4H Time-frame
Our signal last night is now in profit. We just hit the entry in $42000 now its starting to be profitable. We are hoping that this base demand area holds so we can pump and break another Supply Area. RSI and AO are all bullish.
Long position liquidated reach up to $66M which cleared the way to the upside.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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Bitcoin Corrects Lower, Will 37,000 Be Tested?Weekly Time-frame
About to close now the weekly candle. We can expect a beginning of the dump. Strong resistance in $41,934.Awesome Oscillator (AO) might continue the trend to the downside.
1D Time-frame
1D TF is now correcting next support waiting $40,856, $40,019, $38,001. We are still bullish if the support holds. Will see what the market will do today.
4H Time-frame
We are still in correction area, we will see if the AO prints a Green Volume or print a drop volume of red. Then we can know where it is going. We have been expecting a drop and it seems its gonna happen today.
1H Time-frame
We are in the last support of Ichimoku Cloud we drop already but we are able to enter the cloud again. We will see if we can bounce or dropping soon.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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Could Bitcoin Be Forming A Support Zone? At 40,000 Weekly Time-frame
We are currently breaking the $42,622 Resistance Area. Once we flip, it we continue the rally up to $45,000. Top would be $49,012 for the next Rejection Area. Greed and fear index is in #30 which is fear. We are close to going to neutral.
1D Time-frame
We have a breakout from the double bottom which is super bullish. Price target at $46,594. Rejection area is still in $45,000. Awesome Oscillator is still bullish, If we get a rejection
4H Time-frame
Awesome Oscillator (AO) is still in Bullish Continuation. We are currently printing higher low and higher high. Rejection area at $42,622 if broken we can see another rally to $45,000 before another Consolidation.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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Global peace be upon us?I don't know. Perhaps its wishful thinking. /but/
Lets face the reality.
Coronavirus pandemic is over and markets have already shown strength despite recent FED hike.
If the war ceases and Russia lays down its arms with a peace tready mediated by the chinesse would be market pump galore.
Most probably it would also help china dodge more sanctions imposed by the US.
Just an idea.
US Arms Manufacturers Profit from USA's Policy of Forever WarSince beginning the United States' War of Terror with the illegal invasion of Iraq in 2001, US weapons contractors and their shareholders (incl. many US politicians and advisors) have reaped untold billions in profits:
Beating the Market
$10k invested in Lockheed Martin in 2001 would be worth over $200k today. Likewise the same amount invested in Northrop Gruman would be worth over $150k. This is far in excess of the Dow Jones index, which only increased a little over 200% in the same period, meaning a $10k investment in a DJI fund in 2001 would be worth less than $25k today.
Profits continue to soar today thanks to current conflicts and massive arms sales, totaling 100s of billions of dollars over the next 10 years, that are currently lined up to UAE and Saudi Arabia among others.
Trading Volume Jumped 19.5%, Will That's Break 45,000?Weekly Time-frame
We have filled the wick of the previous weekly candle. This might mean we can start going down again. Top would be $42,045, $44,000.Awesome Oscillator (AO) is still bearish.
1D Time-frame
AO is bullish! new volume in the positive the most awaited for the bulls. We might see a retest in $44,393 before going down. We are also seeing double bottom at the moment price target at $46,916. We might see some sideways for two days as there is no volume in the weekends.
4H Time-frame
Double bottom in 4h time-frame breakout area in $42,045 before we continue to the upside either we hold the base then pump or get a rejection.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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Understanding Market Risks Through HistoryIn this post, I'll be referring to the historical chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) in order to explain my perspective on risks associated with the market, and how to respond to current market conditions as a trader and investor.
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only .
In my previous educational post, I discussed why the Fed's rate hikes were not as significant to us as we thought it'd be. I mentioned the idea of the market already pricing in not only the information itself, but also people's reactions to it as well. As announced, the Fed raised rates on the 16th of March, approving the first interest rate hike in more than three years. As anticipated in my investment thesis, the market handled this well, and the Nasdaq index alone has bounced over 10.49% since the lows of the past 5 days.
Today, I'm going to talk about the war in Ukraine from a statistical standpoint, and how this is unlikely to lead to a multi-year recession .
Historical Cases
- In 1914, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand marked the beginning of the first global scale war modern society would witness
- The war lasted 4 years before Germany admitted its defeat and signed the armistice agreement.
- During this time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit record highs of 110%, making today's 7% figures look moderate.
- After the war, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied a whopping 504%, before the American economy was struck with the Great Recession.
- After the Great Recession, the world faced a second world war in 1939, which started with Germany's invasion of Poland.
- The markets crashed, but not as severely as the Great Depression, and CPI recorded 74% during this period.
- With Japan's surrender, uncertainty was resolved, resulting in the DJI delivering 523% returns.
- Then came the Vietnam war in 1964, which started with the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution.
- The market ranged sideways for almost a decade, creating lower lows, with situations deteriorated by the Oil Shock of 1973.
- During this period, CPI hit record highs of 207% with factors of global uncertainty such as the war, which the US couldn't seem to win, and Oil Shock.
- After the war ended and the economy recovered from the Oil Shock, DJI delivered a whopping 1,447% returns, until the market started shaking again with the 911 terrorist attacks against the United States.
Lessons Learned
- So what is it that the market tells us?
- I've outlined what wars and regional conflicts do to markets in the post below:
- Historical cases tell us that the market prices in information about the war, and corrects in advance.
- Once the conflict actually takes place, the market starts to bounce from its local lows, as uncertainty has been resolved to an extent.
- From a macro perspective, as seen through the historical chart of the DJI, the end of wars usually mark the beginning of a multi-year bull rally as negative sentiment will have been completely cleared by then.
Market Risks
- That is not to say that I'm irresponsibly bullish. I do think there could be probable cases that lead to a global expansion of the crisis, and the collapse of the financial markets.
- For instance, Russia's use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) could damage the markets to a greater extent than anticipated.
- It seems as though the market is considering this to be an improbable case, which it is, but there's no reason to be too complacent.
- According to an FSB whistleblower, it was recently revealed that Xi Jinping had plans to invade Taiwan this fall, depending on the success of Russia.
- If that were the case, then it wouldn't be a huge logical leap to consider north Korea's possible initiation of war against South Korea, and a war breaking out at a global scale.
Conclusion [/b
It all boils down to uncertainty in the market, and people's irrational responses to it. I believe that a successful negotiation between Russia and Ukraine could lead the markets to swiftly rebound once again, though that is not the only factor of uncertainty at the moment. Inflation (CPI) will eventually cool down in an organic manner, as markets realize the stability that is being brought to the economy, and the Fed's actual influence on the market.
People ignore bad news during uptrends, and they ignore good news during downtrends. I see a plethora of opportunities where companies that generate tremendous cash flow at an increasing rate with insane growth indicators, are neglected by the market. It's important that we clearly understand where we're at in terms of the market cycle. I believe that we're at a corrective phase of a bull market, rather than at the beginning of a recession. During corrections of bull markets, the smart move is to buy cheap stocks. It's worked effectively in making money 100 years ago, and I don't doubt that it'll work now as well.
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If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
WILL YEARN FINANCE STILL RECOVER FROM THIS FALL!? DAILY YFIUSDT🔍 Key points:
- Prolific developers Andre Cronje and Aton Nell have called it quits on their time in cryptoland on Sunday, according to a Twitter post that gave no explanations for the exit.
- Cronje has been described as the “godfather of De-Fi” and is best-known for his work on Fantom and Yearn Finance – the pair will be “terminating” over 25 apps and services next month, though it’s worth noting that those projects won’t actually stop operating.
- Their associated projects did not take the news well though. Fantom tumbled over 16% on Sunday to hit its lowest price since December 21, and Yearn Finance lost nearly 10% to its lowest close since November 2020.
and about that, what do you think!?
text source: www.tradingview.com
disclaimer
*** In accordance with CVM Instruction No. 598, of May 3, 2018, Art. 21, I declare that the recommendations of this analysis reflect solely and exclusively my personal opinions and perceptions and that they were prepared independently and autonomously. Not being considered a purchase and/or sale recommendation. ***
Any questions do not hesitate to contact me. I'm happy to be able to help you in the best way I can. 🙏
GBPCHF could try to break the long lasting trend...or notGBPCHF is really undecided nowadays. It has a long lasting trend to fall since the January of 2000. Now it has formed a giant triangle bottoming at around 1.18. Now the Bank of England is in a rate hiking cycle while the Swiss National Bank does not indicate a rate hike any time soon, so a strengthening of the pound is very likely. Besides that, the shockwaves of Brexit are slowly fading, Boris Johnson and his administration set a clear path for the economy (hopefully a good path), so everything is in order, in theory.
On the other hand, the war in Ukraine, the sanctions on Russia, the supply chain problems and the UK's firm anti-russian position and rethoric bring some uncertainty to the equation. On the long run I expect a possible break-out attempt to the upside, targeting the upper end of the falling yellow falling channel firs (around 1.247), then the upper end of the blue triangle (around 1.26).
Be cautious! The other scenario is a rapid fall to the bottom of the channel (1.194), then to the bottom of the triangle (1.18).
Follow me for more updates on the pair and other assets.
Don't forget: money is weird and unpredictable, so plan for all possible scenarios and hedge your positions!