WAR
Bitcoin Corrects Lower, Will 37,000 Be Tested?Weekly Time-frame
About to close now the weekly candle. We can expect a beginning of the dump. Strong resistance in $41,934.Awesome Oscillator (AO) might continue the trend to the downside.
1D Time-frame
1D TF is now correcting next support waiting $40,856, $40,019, $38,001. We are still bullish if the support holds. Will see what the market will do today.
4H Time-frame
We are still in correction area, we will see if the AO prints a Green Volume or print a drop volume of red. Then we can know where it is going. We have been expecting a drop and it seems its gonna happen today.
1H Time-frame
We are in the last support of Ichimoku Cloud we drop already but we are able to enter the cloud again. We will see if we can bounce or dropping soon.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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US30 6H (BLACK ZONE...) US30 . have a sensitive zone with black zone so we can not say will break to up or down the special reason is the war and bad situation for know,
but we can say by the technically chart if the price break the black zone to up also black trend the direction will start upward strongly .
BLACK ZONE (34600 - 34800)
under black zone will be downward
above black zone will be upward
Could Bitcoin Be Forming A Support Zone? At 40,000 Weekly Time-frame
We are currently breaking the $42,622 Resistance Area. Once we flip, it we continue the rally up to $45,000. Top would be $49,012 for the next Rejection Area. Greed and fear index is in #30 which is fear. We are close to going to neutral.
1D Time-frame
We have a breakout from the double bottom which is super bullish. Price target at $46,594. Rejection area is still in $45,000. Awesome Oscillator is still bullish, If we get a rejection
4H Time-frame
Awesome Oscillator (AO) is still in Bullish Continuation. We are currently printing higher low and higher high. Rejection area at $42,622 if broken we can see another rally to $45,000 before another Consolidation.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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Global peace be upon us?I don't know. Perhaps its wishful thinking. /but/
Lets face the reality.
Coronavirus pandemic is over and markets have already shown strength despite recent FED hike.
If the war ceases and Russia lays down its arms with a peace tready mediated by the chinesse would be market pump galore.
Most probably it would also help china dodge more sanctions imposed by the US.
Just an idea.
US Arms Manufacturers Profit from USA's Policy of Forever WarSince beginning the United States' War of Terror with the illegal invasion of Iraq in 2001, US weapons contractors and their shareholders (incl. many US politicians and advisors) have reaped untold billions in profits:
Beating the Market
$10k invested in Lockheed Martin in 2001 would be worth over $200k today. Likewise the same amount invested in Northrop Gruman would be worth over $150k. This is far in excess of the Dow Jones index, which only increased a little over 200% in the same period, meaning a $10k investment in a DJI fund in 2001 would be worth less than $25k today.
Profits continue to soar today thanks to current conflicts and massive arms sales, totaling 100s of billions of dollars over the next 10 years, that are currently lined up to UAE and Saudi Arabia among others.
Trading Volume Jumped 19.5%, Will That's Break 45,000?Weekly Time-frame
We have filled the wick of the previous weekly candle. This might mean we can start going down again. Top would be $42,045, $44,000.Awesome Oscillator (AO) is still bearish.
1D Time-frame
AO is bullish! new volume in the positive the most awaited for the bulls. We might see a retest in $44,393 before going down. We are also seeing double bottom at the moment price target at $46,916. We might see some sideways for two days as there is no volume in the weekends.
4H Time-frame
Double bottom in 4h time-frame breakout area in $42,045 before we continue to the upside either we hold the base then pump or get a rejection.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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Understanding Market Risks Through HistoryIn this post, I'll be referring to the historical chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) in order to explain my perspective on risks associated with the market, and how to respond to current market conditions as a trader and investor.
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only .
In my previous educational post, I discussed why the Fed's rate hikes were not as significant to us as we thought it'd be. I mentioned the idea of the market already pricing in not only the information itself, but also people's reactions to it as well. As announced, the Fed raised rates on the 16th of March, approving the first interest rate hike in more than three years. As anticipated in my investment thesis, the market handled this well, and the Nasdaq index alone has bounced over 10.49% since the lows of the past 5 days.
Today, I'm going to talk about the war in Ukraine from a statistical standpoint, and how this is unlikely to lead to a multi-year recession .
Historical Cases
- In 1914, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand marked the beginning of the first global scale war modern society would witness
- The war lasted 4 years before Germany admitted its defeat and signed the armistice agreement.
- During this time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit record highs of 110%, making today's 7% figures look moderate.
- After the war, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied a whopping 504%, before the American economy was struck with the Great Recession.
- After the Great Recession, the world faced a second world war in 1939, which started with Germany's invasion of Poland.
- The markets crashed, but not as severely as the Great Depression, and CPI recorded 74% during this period.
- With Japan's surrender, uncertainty was resolved, resulting in the DJI delivering 523% returns.
- Then came the Vietnam war in 1964, which started with the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution.
- The market ranged sideways for almost a decade, creating lower lows, with situations deteriorated by the Oil Shock of 1973.
- During this period, CPI hit record highs of 207% with factors of global uncertainty such as the war, which the US couldn't seem to win, and Oil Shock.
- After the war ended and the economy recovered from the Oil Shock, DJI delivered a whopping 1,447% returns, until the market started shaking again with the 911 terrorist attacks against the United States.
Lessons Learned
- So what is it that the market tells us?
- I've outlined what wars and regional conflicts do to markets in the post below:
- Historical cases tell us that the market prices in information about the war, and corrects in advance.
- Once the conflict actually takes place, the market starts to bounce from its local lows, as uncertainty has been resolved to an extent.
- From a macro perspective, as seen through the historical chart of the DJI, the end of wars usually mark the beginning of a multi-year bull rally as negative sentiment will have been completely cleared by then.
Market Risks
- That is not to say that I'm irresponsibly bullish. I do think there could be probable cases that lead to a global expansion of the crisis, and the collapse of the financial markets.
- For instance, Russia's use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) could damage the markets to a greater extent than anticipated.
- It seems as though the market is considering this to be an improbable case, which it is, but there's no reason to be too complacent.
- According to an FSB whistleblower, it was recently revealed that Xi Jinping had plans to invade Taiwan this fall, depending on the success of Russia.
- If that were the case, then it wouldn't be a huge logical leap to consider north Korea's possible initiation of war against South Korea, and a war breaking out at a global scale.
Conclusion [/b
It all boils down to uncertainty in the market, and people's irrational responses to it. I believe that a successful negotiation between Russia and Ukraine could lead the markets to swiftly rebound once again, though that is not the only factor of uncertainty at the moment. Inflation (CPI) will eventually cool down in an organic manner, as markets realize the stability that is being brought to the economy, and the Fed's actual influence on the market.
People ignore bad news during uptrends, and they ignore good news during downtrends. I see a plethora of opportunities where companies that generate tremendous cash flow at an increasing rate with insane growth indicators, are neglected by the market. It's important that we clearly understand where we're at in terms of the market cycle. I believe that we're at a corrective phase of a bull market, rather than at the beginning of a recession. During corrections of bull markets, the smart move is to buy cheap stocks. It's worked effectively in making money 100 years ago, and I don't doubt that it'll work now as well.
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WILL YEARN FINANCE STILL RECOVER FROM THIS FALL!? DAILY YFIUSDT🔍 Key points:
- Prolific developers Andre Cronje and Aton Nell have called it quits on their time in cryptoland on Sunday, according to a Twitter post that gave no explanations for the exit.
- Cronje has been described as the “godfather of De-Fi” and is best-known for his work on Fantom and Yearn Finance – the pair will be “terminating” over 25 apps and services next month, though it’s worth noting that those projects won’t actually stop operating.
- Their associated projects did not take the news well though. Fantom tumbled over 16% on Sunday to hit its lowest price since December 21, and Yearn Finance lost nearly 10% to its lowest close since November 2020.
and about that, what do you think!?
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disclaimer
*** In accordance with CVM Instruction No. 598, of May 3, 2018, Art. 21, I declare that the recommendations of this analysis reflect solely and exclusively my personal opinions and perceptions and that they were prepared independently and autonomously. Not being considered a purchase and/or sale recommendation. ***
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GBPCHF could try to break the long lasting trend...or notGBPCHF is really undecided nowadays. It has a long lasting trend to fall since the January of 2000. Now it has formed a giant triangle bottoming at around 1.18. Now the Bank of England is in a rate hiking cycle while the Swiss National Bank does not indicate a rate hike any time soon, so a strengthening of the pound is very likely. Besides that, the shockwaves of Brexit are slowly fading, Boris Johnson and his administration set a clear path for the economy (hopefully a good path), so everything is in order, in theory.
On the other hand, the war in Ukraine, the sanctions on Russia, the supply chain problems and the UK's firm anti-russian position and rethoric bring some uncertainty to the equation. On the long run I expect a possible break-out attempt to the upside, targeting the upper end of the falling yellow falling channel firs (around 1.247), then the upper end of the blue triangle (around 1.26).
Be cautious! The other scenario is a rapid fall to the bottom of the channel (1.194), then to the bottom of the triangle (1.18).
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Don't forget: money is weird and unpredictable, so plan for all possible scenarios and hedge your positions!
ENSV and Oil, Up Up and Away?I'm still researching, i.e. justifying my bag holding, XOM and NINE have both had good surprises for their earning reports. We'll keep an eye on the rest of the sector as they have earnings reported, but I suspect they are all going to be good surprises for a big win in the next week or two.
Are We Yet To Form Support?Weekly Time-frame
Bitcoin pump! Is this a sign for the rally to the upside? 82% of Bitcoin short are now in loss. Is this a sign to the upside or it will trigger a dump? We don't know. What we know today the Greed and Fear index is in #24. Which is Bullish.
1D Time-frame
Daily time-frame we have reach the bottom already. We can expect more to the upside. As our Awesome Oscillator are now in bullish twin peaks. We tried breaking the thin cloud as I have mentioned in the past that it will punch through this wall of resistance.
4H Time-frame
Awesome Oscillator (AO) is Super Bullish. The long wicks needs to be filled somehow so we have more to the upside. Once we break $39,235 it will fly again to the upside.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
EURJPY INTRADAY!please be aware of fundamnetal news analysis and (minor structure confirmation needed otherwise you are trading blindly!
(“Trading”) involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors; in particular, past developments do not necessarily indicate future results.
EURGBP: Price Showing Signs Of Exhaustion! Price is showing signs of exhaustion on 4H charts. This is evident by the Bearish RSI Divergence on the RSI. Have a look at the link below for the advanced technical and fundamental idea behind this setup.
For more complete information, the main 4H chart provides all the required details.
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The 4th TURNING and Davos' GREAT RESETThe 4th Turning is a sociological study of the last 600 years of Wester culture. In it, the authors conclude that society goes through 4 stages culminating in the 4th Turning, a time of chaos and upheaval that ends with the establishment of
a "new order". We are in that period now, and the excessive debt, inflation and political tensions around the world indicate that there is a monumental change coming. Perhaps Davos' GREAT RESET as annunciated by Klaus Schwab, Perhaps something worse. Only time will tell.
All set to sail?Looks bullish and natural gas demand spikes in these times and future until we have complete alternative energy resources. Once it breaks above that blue line, it could rally towards $18...
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P.S. Note a financial advice, do your due diligence.
GN UPWARD MOVEMENT FIB38 POSSIBLEFIB38 reversal is looking like a very big possibility after bouncing off my zone a few times, 2 things may happen due to the uncertainty of the war...1 - GN falls further to its long not seen low or it bounces back to the FIB38, whihc is 500 pips away...very slowly but possible.