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Wave-5

Pick up that COIN when it hits da floorWhen a coin drops it is merely instinctual to pick it right up, thats money we're talking about, can't leave it on the floor... Using a term I coined, harmonic wolfekraft, I have obtained the following scenario for COIN. Summary - Look for a bounce around 135 this week (4/18-4/20 range most likely). The bounce zone is 130-140. If it drops below that we might have a bigger problem on our hands and it could drop as low as 92. More likely to bounce in zone though. - Initial target of 166 by around 4/25 (before the Apr 29 expiry) - Intermediate target of 227 -240 by mid-June (the 227 is actually possible by 6/2 ) - Max Target by 6/24 is 350s - this is theoretically possible, but not statistically plausible... the time-series adj. target by 6/24 is 288. Explaination : - The bigger picture is that COIN is working toward completing a larger bearish harmonic, with the X at its ATH right after its IPO, the C is TBD but I used logic from the nested smaller harmonics within, levels from wolfe waves, proprietary control charts, and MMM by how options are currently priced to determine a bounce zone/bottom likely in the 130-140 range (worth watching closely this week). - Within the AB of the larger developing harmonic, COIN completed a nested bearish Crab within a bearish deep crab back on 5/12/'21 - 11/9/'21. From there it started downside to the larger C. - There is a new nested bearish harmonic development that aligns with a bottoming around 135. A bounce from around 135 would setup for a potential completion of a nested Bearish A Butterfly within a slightly larger Bearish A Butterfly, and interestingly, their D would form right at the intermediate targets I am getting using wolfe-wave EPA-ETA off the 1-4 resistance. These same levels are also showing up as critical levels in a stability monitoring algo I created using control charts and robust rando cut forest. Essentially, below 135 in a weeks time would make COINs level a statistical outlier with over 90% probability of explosive bounce. - looking at the MMM for Apr 22 the range is 135 -160 which aligns with bounce zone and point bounce level. The MMM for Apr 29 is priced for 130-165 - the initial target/time to target I am getting from using the minor wolfe wave (blue) in chart is 166. I do love this setup. Note the relatively huge wolfe wave buy signal that just occured (bottom panel (wws)); at smaller time frames (5-15 min), there are trace buy signals starting to show up which indicates bounce is near. - finally, the intermediate targets using the major wolfe wave 1-4 projection (grey in chart) are, indeed, statistically plausible: fitting a time series model to COIN, an optimal selection is ARIMA(2,1,2) w/ p = 0.42. The upper 80-95% Prediction Interval on 6/2 (223-263) spans the intermediate target range of 227-240. The adjusted target by 6/24 of 288 is the 95% PI.. although such a move would be kinda crazy, it could occur in a scenario where BTC explodes and COIN follows and runs to meet its 1-4 projection prior to ETA (not impossible, but not expected TBH). I am expecting a bounce to initial target and then a continuation on that momentum to the intermediate target range and am considering the following play (FOR THE CURIOUS, OBVIOUSLY NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE): COIN May 13 160 calls IF it bounces at or before 135 this week COIN June 17 185 calls IF it bounces at or before 135 this week Bless you all, The Alpinist
NASDAQ:COINLong
by JerryManders
6
Iron Mountain (IRM) ..... A Short Term Peak ??Iron Mountain (IRM) has had a 35% run in 35 days. I have indicated a Wolfe Wave formation which projects a $48 target in early May. Overlay this with a Harmonic Crab Pattern which is the basis of forming. (For purists this developing Crab pattern may not meet their more exacting criteria.) Additionally the indicator in the bottom panel suggests a forming top and needs to roll over. Nevertheless I would suggest that around the $59 area if archived, may be a good place to extinguish existing positions or even short. If this doesn't happen then drive on to another situation ,,, never chase. That's what I will be watching for to take action on. I will update this as warranted. Not investment advice, do your own diligence and respect broad markets and World events. Good Luck S.
NYSE:IRM
by Steve666
Re-Integration By Parts (near-term FB)This type of scenario/projection requires you to use your imagination a bit - align that with some solid math and some extrapolation and what we have is a very possible near-term scenario: - Imagine FB never gapped last earnings, what would the price action look like. Is it possible it was forming the final part of its distribution phase that would have decreased in volatility s.t. it took the shape of a triangle pattern, and instead the earnings report accelerated the mark down? What we can do is extrapolate by cloning the current trendlines across the highs and lows post-gap down (blue lines) and populating where the range left off pre-gap. To properly complete the distribution phase might require a retest of the bottom range, and rejection before really tanking it/discounting it (by that I mean it will likely end up sub 170 (shaded red rectangle area) mid-term -- that would be a proper discounting before the next long-term bullish impulse wave can begin. - Now, introduce some conventional techniques to see if there is a plausible path to test for rejection... recent (minor) bullish wolfe-wave 1-4 EPA @ ETA says yes, indeed, and by May 21st - nearly exactly when that pre-gap support line intersects the 1-4 EPA @ ETA!! - Finally, is there a setup that would make such a near-term run actually bearish s.t. it would get rejected and complete markdown going into the summer? Indeed, Bearish Deep Crab Harmonic. In summary: ~ Near-Term long to 258 ~ Mid-term short back to 170ish IF rejected after near-term pop ~ Long-term Bullish but will have to re-analyze and update along the way. There are more details to how/why I drew the path projection the way that I did, it is not random - pop pre-earning (i.e. before next week), small gap down post earnings next week, explosive bounce from that smaller gap to fill said gap and that momentum will take it to near-term target. If you're interested in how I determined this and you are familiar with stochastic analysis/Ito Calculus then we should talk. Otherwise just trust my word the math is gucci. This would be kinda crazy if it all plays out lmao, but worth bringing up as a perspective on "meta" or whatever; not financial advice or whatnot. Bless your souls, The Alpinist
NASDAQ:METALong
by JerryManders
5
Wave USDT PERP ReviewWave managed to catch the short at $ 60 and take it all the way to $ 19.50 where I was massively shut down. 4H TF 24.500 To 21.00 Resistance Zone 1w TF 18.900 to 18.00 Supporting Zone Profits! Now I'm telling everyone about the massive reversal of this coin because I've been flipping it for so long. $ 18 and I am moving my trade towards the targets stated in the chart which is 10% open with expectations. It breaks its own ATH of 60! Thanks I know this will help everyone to have a better day / night.
WLong
by TheMarketHunters
Ignore the Noise... Recognize a Buying OpportunityAt the end of the day as long as this stays above 233.68 its a Buy. - Bigger picture is NFLX can complete a Running Flat C wave if it stays above 233.68 (i.e. does not retrace more than 100% of wave B - The 5 count of wave C has formed a wolfe wave with the equilibrium point slightly above where it looks like it will open today (i.e. supply = demand near 272) - look for a bounce at open to test the equilibrium level: If it breaks above it expect a run further to try and re-enter the wolfe channel [ Initial target 307 by May 2nd ] If initial target is reached expect that momentum to carry it higher to test upper channel [ Intermediate Target 335 by May 24 ] A breakout from wolfe channel will give it the setup to run Target = 475 by July 22nd . If this materializes I do not expect it to complete gap fill to 500s without undergoing a minor correction or a least consolidation first. *** If NFLX has a sustained break below 233.68 it opens up a short opportunity - will re-eval. based on how it behaves in the 234-272 range. But subscribers, I assure you, have nothing to do with this. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Have a blessed day, The Alpinist
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by JerryManders
1
ROKU small drop then big pop - using harmonics and wolfekraftLook for a drop to around 104 (102-107 range = bounce zone) to start next week, followed by a pre-earnings run to 130s, then earnings pop/continuation to low 160s. After that it will be time to get short for a drop back to 120s-130s (will revisit and adjust for precise levels along the way and send updates). Logic : - My model for overall market (in sync with crypto) is for a small decline early next week- SPY 432 - and then upside through April 29-May 11 - SPY 450-455... after this expecting final leg down of bottoming structure (~ SPY 400-415 by late summer/early fall) to complete bottoming structure prior to starting a bullish impulse wave to new highs into 2023. The math for ROKU aligns with this direction and timeline, and so do a lot of other names!! - Correlation to NFLX has been a thing for ROKU in the past - my model for NFLX expects Bullish Earnings price action (earnings this week)... pop and continuation to 400s by early May followed by drop back to 350ish. This schedule indicates ROKU will bottom (locally) prior to NFLX earnings release and then begin its own pre-earnings run up. Chart : - Completed Bullish Navarro 200 harmonic March 15th at the 98 level. The " enter long " for the start of retracement to 272 (pt1, expect by 2023), 500 (pt2, later...), 732 (pt3, like 3-5 years probably) is sustained run above 137 - Post-Navaro ROKU completed a Bearish Shark (semi-major) Harmonic and hit pt1, pt2 is 104 - I am noticing a larger (major) Bearish Harmonic* forming that will complete C near the 104 level, and would complete with a run to D = 161-168 {(*) could be any of the following: Max Gartley (most likely), Max Bat, Leonardo} - Also noticing a (minor) Bullish Harmonic** forming in conjunction with (*) - (**) would complete D around 104 and have a 1.618 retracement to 161 and is likely a harmonic known as a TOTAL 1 - There was a bearish wolfe wave end of march with 1-4 projection/support still needing to be hit to complete downside move. This aligns with the 104 level early this coming week (4/18-4/20) - There was a bullish wolfe wave that broke out of channel end of last week and will need to re-test top of channel before running to 1-4 projection/resistance... guess were the top of channel retest level is... hello 104 (again). Note that options are priced for move to 103-121 next week, 104 makes sense in alignment with chart structure. Prediction: : - Based on the above info, if ROKU bounces around 104 early next week my max initial target going into earnings is 139 in the right conditions (i.e. NFLX gets big earnings pop, market starts bullish run into May) - 139 would means 1-4 wolfe projection/resistance is hit by around Apr 25-27th , ROKU earnings is Apr 28. If this happens that would trigger enter long (above 137) on the retracement for major Bullish Navarro 200. A more conservative initial target is mid 120s going into earnings, this would save some room to continue to 1-4 projection post-earnings. - Target by May 10 is 161 - Expectation after target is drop from 161 to test the 137 entry level. This drop would be in sync with expected market bottom. Depending on when Market bottom and where, ROKU could drop further than 137 in accordance with (*). THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, but if you're curious how I am playing this: - looking to enter Apr 29 120.00 calls and May 13 130.00 calls IF ROKU bounces from 104ish early next week. Would take profits on the Apr 29s before the earnings release if my prediction materializes, and let the May 13s ride to target. Bless you all, let me know your thoughts.
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by JerryManders
5
An Intricate BlockA lot of bullishness unfolding here so I will start with the targets and break it down how I got them and why I am so bullish on SQ. *Initial Target = 138 ; time to target TBD, what I'm looking for is 3 consequtive green candles at the 2 hour level (estimating time to target occurring before the end of April) **Intermediate Target = 157 by 5/4/2022 - I will explain below Goal Target is above 166 , but will return to this after the first 2 pts are hit (I can say time to target is after May 4th) Explaination: - my analysis displayed begins after the gap on last earnings, notice the 5-count down to fill gap that immediately led into a harmonic resulting in a leading diagonal with wave 1 at 100% retracement of AD... the 5th wave made it to 2.618 - the corrective wave off (5) was a wolfe wave which led into a Butterfly which is yet to materialize... however, the green circle starting April 12th is a Butterfly Fractal - you'll see this if you look at the chart at 5 or 15 minute intervals... I am expecting the next leg up to begin any day now coming off this setup * Initial target is a 0.618 AD from the "primary" butterfly and a 1.618 from the "secondary" butterfly fractal. In between the current price and the initial pt (138) there is a gap to fill around 134 - this will be a 1.272 AD off the secondary/fractal butterfly (again, not shown but you can find it at the lower intervals). A gap and continue to initial target will set up to continue to intermediate target. ** Intermediate target of 157 is 1.272 AD of primary butterfly (shown). Using the blue trendline from the 1-4 wolfe wave resistance I obtained time to target as the intersection of the 1.272 AD and the 1-4 Wolfe line.. this falls on May 4th but could occur sooner in the right conditions. I'll revisit this soon but I'm seeing very bullish signals in SQ. Side Note: the yellow trendlines are just longer term trendlines from a while back, left them on there in case they can explain any hold ups or critical levels in price action, probably not important. Not Financial Advice.
NYSE:SQLong
by JerryManders
Bitcoin finishing 5th wave impulse to down side; terminal move!We are coming close to the completion of the 5 wave impulse to the downside which commenced at $47700 on the 30th of MARCH 2022. We maintain inside the MICRO 5th wave where 5 sub waves could potentially arise; before a reversal may occur. The $37700 area maintains as strong support and could be a likely area for a reversal, the downside sell off is likely to become exhausted and a quick rejection of lower prices is often a good reversal sign, upon confirmation. Please like and follow for more Advanced Elliot Wave application!!
Short
by NICKVASS10