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BITCOIN - Final Capitulation is NearCryptocurrencies have experienced quite a shake down lately, impacted by the challenges in the global economies as well as crypto world itself. But how much deeper can Bitcoin fall before the final capitulation? Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves): The global count indicates that five wave impulse was completed at the peak of April 2021 - see the full chart below An alternative scenario would be to have the fifth in November 2021. However, there are few reasons against it First, the correction from the high of April was clearly formed by a five impulse which indicates that it is likely to be part of a bigger corrective pattern - marked as wave A Second, the bull run from June 2021 to November can be at first looked at as an impulse, but at a closer look it is visible that some rules were broken - wave 4 is shorter in duration than wave 2, and generally it is more likely to be a series of zigzags - hence it can be counted as wave B And finally, the latest drop from November high is also moving in a five wave formation - hence wave C of an Extended Flat Given this five wave impulse have formed the first wave in the global cycle then the second wave can be expected to retrace to the level of 0.786x ($13900) or deeper, where the next support can be found at the level of accumulation in the previous wave 4 of a triangle, $9100 Once the correction is completed a new cycle in the global wave 3 will begin. However, it is likely that until the economy is fixed and Fed switches on stimulating monetary policy , this new bull cycle will be very slow to pick up the pace What do you think about this scenario? Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves. Thanks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by vitalalyt
5
WTI Oil - New Highs to Come?It is incredibly difficult to analyse this commodity fundamentally so let's see what technical analysis may suggest? Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves): Since the sharp fall of March 2020 it is likely that we are observing the development of a global zig-zag ABC Five waves of the first impulse A completed in July 2021 Wave B took shape of a complex Running Correction WXY finishing in November 2021 And since then we can see formation of another impulse in wave C Waves 1 to 3 of this impulse culminating in March 2022 are quite clear which have been followed by a flat correction in the shape of Double Threes WXY The crux of the analysis is developing right now when the price started moving in a very choppy way The previous scenario still stands and it is very likely that we are observing development of an Ending Diagonal in wave 5 (see educational post below about the structure of this wave) Waves 1-3 have formed and we can expect correction of wave 4 to last at least until end of June / fist week of July to the level of $103, followed by the last zigzag to top the high of $129 This is quite complex scenario so it needs to be monitored against all the rules of Ending Diagonal. What do you think about WTI Oil and its short term prospects? Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves. Thanks Educational post on Ending Diagonal
TVC:USOILLong
by vitalalyt
1
ETC buy zone is hereThis idea is crafted with a bullish mid term mindset, trading spot / 2x leverage with DCA implementation. I am entirely aware if BTC breaks below 40k, it is likely that alts will be unpredictable. I am not considering this scenario in this idea. ETC has been consolidating for about 210 days from its 183 ATH in may 2021. My idea is that these levels marked 1, and 2 on the chart are a good place to accumulate based off BTC showing strength pushing 51k today. Indicator wise, we have been reaching rock bottom RSI levels and deep momentum waves marked as blue boxes, both today and September 2020 have levels this deep. You can see this was a relatively safe buy zone as ETC rose 3600% in the coming 200 days. I have also marked an ABC structure coupled with a FIB from the top of the A wave and bottom of the B wave. This would give an approximate secure profit level at somewhere around 170-260 USD. It's entirely possible to retouch level 2 at around $17 if we saw BTC drop to 42k before pushing further upwards.
Long
by El_Goblino
BTC Long position, with Elliott Wave and 200 week MAPossibility vs Probability. In Jan I charted out the possibility of revisiting the 20k price range. Looks like that idea was the one the market decided to take. Here is the link to that chart: I use Elliott Wave style TA and have determined this is likely the bottom, or very close to the bottom, of the most recent bear market beginning November 2021. My reasoning: -Counting waves since the beginning of BTC's inception, wave 1 ended at roughly $20k price in late 2017. -Wave 3 started March 2020 (COVID begins) -Using Fib extension tools, I've determined that Wave 3 has likely finished, and in fact exceeded its typical extension of 4.23 (blow off top) - Since wave 3 has finished, we are likely in the C leg of Wave 4. - Elliott Wave rule - Wave 1 and Wave 4 cannot overlap. - Crypto Elliot Wave rule - Experience in the crypto market says they can but only *somewhat* -BTC has now intersected with the 200 week MA. In the past, BTC either finds support, or only briefly dipped below it. Strategy: I've taken a position at the current BTC price of $21k. Since we know Wave 1 and 4 can overlap in crypto, and we know BTC can move below the 200 week MA, I've always set up buy positions at $16k and $13k, just in case. Using a fib trend extension (starting since the beginning of BTC), the likely target for BTC is $85k. Even if BTC were to drop to something crazy, like $10k, the risk/reward is 6:1. Even as I write this, BTC dropped to $19.3k, an even better price. As for what comes after the $85K price target is reached? Sadness. But thats for another chart. You eagle eyed Elliott Wavers can prob already spot what comes after $85k, already on this chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Asaysana
2
BITCOIN IS THIS BOTTOM OR JUST STARTING At the outset, I would like to inform you that I have been a big fan of the wave theory in the last five years, but in science there are no feelings and biases, as well as in markets, and also the theory has not reached the limit of idealism and some critics say that it did not reach the limits of theory, it is only a hypothesis and It has been going on for such a long time because of its many possibilities. anyway , this discussion will be as simple as possible and easy for the public to understand, even non-specialists, and from them I will present some scenarios that I see as possible to happen on the Bitcoin chart. # The first scenario: Have we finished the FLAT and are heading to ATH ???!!!! I wish if the answer to this question was clear and certain , this perception takes the third place out of four, and the reason for this is the downward wave from the top of 69 to the current levels not clear five wave . Well, according to this scenario, the end of the correction is expected at the 23k, from which we start a new bull market (remember this scenario takes the third place among the possibilities) The second scenario: It is a rare but possible pattern, like what happened in the Dow Jones Index in 1966, which is the expanding triangle In the wave principle, there are four triangular patterns(Without counting the irregular top) , and the below chart shows the expanding pattern, and it may develop and change into a second type of the family of triangles. One must be careful that the triangle is one of the most difficult patterns to anticipate early, and its volatility is very high. There may be some intellectual fanaticism on the part of some wave analyzers regarding the internal structure of waves. they assert that they be from the zigzag family, and this condition is not true The third and fourth scenarios: They are the most important and most likely, which is that the wave from 69 to the current price is the first corrective wave of the model and it is formed with a 3 waves structure that is very satisfactory to the rules and guidelines, anyway, the main reason for my preference for this scenario is to study time cycles (note that time cycles are more scientific and have been worked on a lot), so since we are in the A wave of the structure and this wave was 3 waves , so the possibilities will be limited to that the pattern It evolves and takes a flat or develops and takes a triangular shape and the balance tends to the triangular model due to the economic and global conditions I know that this perception of the next movement is boring and takes the sideway character (and sorry, but your Lamborghini will be delayed this time ) and the correction may end in the first quarter of 2024, but remember the markets are not devoid of opportunities Well, what do we gain after all this talk showing charts ?? It is very simple and here lies the strength of the wave theory, so that all the mentioned scenarios agree in the upcoming movement, which is the rise to the levels of 48-50 thousand. This wave at least gives twice the profit without using the leverage, and what do you expect to happen to the rest of the alt coins in this rally : ) I wanted to post some mysterious Fibonacci sequences for Fibonacci fans but it might take a lot of time Anyway, a little advice from me Life is more beautiful than the trading markets, do not be addicted to the price movement and lose the most valuable thing you have (your time) I wish luck to everyone My greetings
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by DARKMEX
8
BTCUSD expected Path (bigger picture)Recently I was following BTCUSD through its consolidation up until break of structure last Friday 6/10. That series was a local analysis/predictive tool using continuous-time markov chain (CTMC). This is a bigger picture analysis using charting techniques centered around supply/demand trendlines and a statistical method I developed in R studio that measures proportional range w.r.t. a displacement control chart (based on price action relative to the 9 and 20 day moving averages (as well as the relationship between those moving averages)). There is a post from someone I follow that has what I think is the most accurate Elliot Wave coverage of BTCs count, which has some levels that align in the neighborhood what I am getting using this method. Here is a link to that post (@Nailed_it, hope you don't mind if I link this idea - if so lmk and I'll obliterate my post): If you want the details follow that ^ Below is more of a general idea for upcoming path to expect using my method: Black 2pt line is most likely path from here (dashed 1pt black line is alternative) - i.e. bounce to low 30ks (point target 31616.3) to test recent channel {the decision at low 30ks will differentiate which path is taken}: - If rejected in low 30ks, which is higher probability, expect more downside to around 12-17k (point target 14278). This should mark the end of the corrective wave. From there my initial target to spark a rally is 41k by October 2022 - If continues after testing low 30ks, flip the expectation above (i.e. 41k first near term, then drop to ~14278k to complete the correction by October) *Max downside risk I see is 6396, but notice I included 0 in this analysis chart (that's right, don't plan on it but don't count it out either hah) **Upside point target, longer term, is 84799. This probably wouldn't be realized until 2023? We're not there yet but I'll update once I see which (if either) of these 2 paths play out... 2 roads diverged in a yellow wood, and BTC did what it wanted to ("BTC stay on the path"... "No way I'm not scared of the SPYDER, I control the SPYDER"). The images posted in the chart are interesting. Not going to go into details but as I mentioned above I essentially use average daily price w.r.t. control charts to obtain estimated ranges. The trajectories are generally pretty stochastic/random, but sometimes interesting patterns unfold at the end of price cycles that give insight into breakouts and breakdowns.. for BTC, back in July 2021 an Expanding Triangle emerged on the proportional range chart and then it took off to 60k. Currently, as of this morning, an Expanding Triangle just completed on BTCs proportional range chart... just something to think about, that's all I am saying. I am not saying it will breakout today because of this lol... but the setup for such a breakout is in the works (i.e. corrective cycle nearing the end). Best to All
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by JerryManders
6
ETH first indications of last wave (bottom soon)Hi everyone, We are hitting a series of 4's making me believe that we are nearing a bottom provided that we make a 'soft landing' in a sort of diagonal style instead of accelereting once more. If this is the case and if we are in a last wave down to complete our structure we need 5 smaller waves down. The minimum target is 1370 USD per Ethereum ranging untill 1264 USD. I believe this corrective structure will complete around 1350 USD. This is where I close my final shorts just to be safe. For people who have not entered a short at 1526 USD targeting 1375 USD is a nice trade setup with a stop loss above the previous blue iv at around 1544 USD. Keep the larger corrective structure in mind if you are entering this trade. Stay stafe and trade carefully since the 5th wave can allways accelerate and we can still get an extension afterwards. As Always this is no financial advice.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by HodlCrypot
1