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BTC Long position, with Elliott Wave and 200 week MAPossibility vs Probability. In Jan I charted out the possibility of revisiting the 20k price range. Looks like that idea was the one the market decided to take. Here is the link to that chart: I use Elliott Wave style TA and have determined this is likely the bottom, or very close to the bottom, of the most recent bear market beginning November 2021. My reasoning: -Counting waves since the beginning of BTC's inception, wave 1 ended at roughly $20k price in late 2017. -Wave 3 started March 2020 (COVID begins) -Using Fib extension tools, I've determined that Wave 3 has likely finished, and in fact exceeded its typical extension of 4.23 (blow off top) - Since wave 3 has finished, we are likely in the C leg of Wave 4. - Elliott Wave rule - Wave 1 and Wave 4 cannot overlap. - Crypto Elliot Wave rule - Experience in the crypto market says they can but only *somewhat* -BTC has now intersected with the 200 week MA. In the past, BTC either finds support, or only briefly dipped below it. Strategy: I've taken a position at the current BTC price of $21k. Since we know Wave 1 and 4 can overlap in crypto, and we know BTC can move below the 200 week MA, I've always set up buy positions at $16k and $13k, just in case. Using a fib trend extension (starting since the beginning of BTC), the likely target for BTC is $85k. Even if BTC were to drop to something crazy, like $10k, the risk/reward is 6:1. Even as I write this, BTC dropped to $19.3k, an even better price. As for what comes after the $85K price target is reached? Sadness. But thats for another chart. You eagle eyed Elliott Wavers can prob already spot what comes after $85k, already on this chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Asaysana
2
BITCOIN IS THIS BOTTOM OR JUST STARTING At the outset, I would like to inform you that I have been a big fan of the wave theory in the last five years, but in science there are no feelings and biases, as well as in markets, and also the theory has not reached the limit of idealism and some critics say that it did not reach the limits of theory, it is only a hypothesis and It has been going on for such a long time because of its many possibilities. anyway , this discussion will be as simple as possible and easy for the public to understand, even non-specialists, and from them I will present some scenarios that I see as possible to happen on the Bitcoin chart. # The first scenario: Have we finished the FLAT and are heading to ATH ???!!!! I wish if the answer to this question was clear and certain , this perception takes the third place out of four, and the reason for this is the downward wave from the top of 69 to the current levels not clear five wave . Well, according to this scenario, the end of the correction is expected at the 23k, from which we start a new bull market (remember this scenario takes the third place among the possibilities) The second scenario: It is a rare but possible pattern, like what happened in the Dow Jones Index in 1966, which is the expanding triangle In the wave principle, there are four triangular patterns(Without counting the irregular top) , and the below chart shows the expanding pattern, and it may develop and change into a second type of the family of triangles. One must be careful that the triangle is one of the most difficult patterns to anticipate early, and its volatility is very high. There may be some intellectual fanaticism on the part of some wave analyzers regarding the internal structure of waves. they assert that they be from the zigzag family, and this condition is not true The third and fourth scenarios: They are the most important and most likely, which is that the wave from 69 to the current price is the first corrective wave of the model and it is formed with a 3 waves structure that is very satisfactory to the rules and guidelines, anyway, the main reason for my preference for this scenario is to study time cycles (note that time cycles are more scientific and have been worked on a lot), so since we are in the A wave of the structure and this wave was 3 waves , so the possibilities will be limited to that the pattern It evolves and takes a flat or develops and takes a triangular shape and the balance tends to the triangular model due to the economic and global conditions I know that this perception of the next movement is boring and takes the sideway character (and sorry, but your Lamborghini will be delayed this time ) and the correction may end in the first quarter of 2024, but remember the markets are not devoid of opportunities Well, what do we gain after all this talk showing charts ?? It is very simple and here lies the strength of the wave theory, so that all the mentioned scenarios agree in the upcoming movement, which is the rise to the levels of 48-50 thousand. This wave at least gives twice the profit without using the leverage, and what do you expect to happen to the rest of the alt coins in this rally : ) I wanted to post some mysterious Fibonacci sequences for Fibonacci fans but it might take a lot of time Anyway, a little advice from me Life is more beautiful than the trading markets, do not be addicted to the price movement and lose the most valuable thing you have (your time) I wish luck to everyone My greetings
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by DARKMEX
8
BTCUSD expected Path (bigger picture)Recently I was following BTCUSD through its consolidation up until break of structure last Friday 6/10. That series was a local analysis/predictive tool using continuous-time markov chain (CTMC). This is a bigger picture analysis using charting techniques centered around supply/demand trendlines and a statistical method I developed in R studio that measures proportional range w.r.t. a displacement control chart (based on price action relative to the 9 and 20 day moving averages (as well as the relationship between those moving averages)). There is a post from someone I follow that has what I think is the most accurate Elliot Wave coverage of BTCs count, which has some levels that align in the neighborhood what I am getting using this method. Here is a link to that post (@Nailed_it, hope you don't mind if I link this idea - if so lmk and I'll obliterate my post): If you want the details follow that ^ Below is more of a general idea for upcoming path to expect using my method: Black 2pt line is most likely path from here (dashed 1pt black line is alternative) - i.e. bounce to low 30ks (point target 31616.3) to test recent channel {the decision at low 30ks will differentiate which path is taken}: - If rejected in low 30ks, which is higher probability, expect more downside to around 12-17k (point target 14278). This should mark the end of the corrective wave. From there my initial target to spark a rally is 41k by October 2022 - If continues after testing low 30ks, flip the expectation above (i.e. 41k first near term, then drop to ~14278k to complete the correction by October) *Max downside risk I see is 6396, but notice I included 0 in this analysis chart (that's right, don't plan on it but don't count it out either hah) **Upside point target, longer term, is 84799. This probably wouldn't be realized until 2023? We're not there yet but I'll update once I see which (if either) of these 2 paths play out... 2 roads diverged in a yellow wood, and BTC did what it wanted to ("BTC stay on the path"... "No way I'm not scared of the SPYDER, I control the SPYDER"). The images posted in the chart are interesting. Not going to go into details but as I mentioned above I essentially use average daily price w.r.t. control charts to obtain estimated ranges. The trajectories are generally pretty stochastic/random, but sometimes interesting patterns unfold at the end of price cycles that give insight into breakouts and breakdowns.. for BTC, back in July 2021 an Expanding Triangle emerged on the proportional range chart and then it took off to 60k. Currently, as of this morning, an Expanding Triangle just completed on BTCs proportional range chart... just something to think about, that's all I am saying. I am not saying it will breakout today because of this lol... but the setup for such a breakout is in the works (i.e. corrective cycle nearing the end). Best to All
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by JerryManders
6
ETH first indications of last wave (bottom soon)Hi everyone, We are hitting a series of 4's making me believe that we are nearing a bottom provided that we make a 'soft landing' in a sort of diagonal style instead of accelereting once more. If this is the case and if we are in a last wave down to complete our structure we need 5 smaller waves down. The minimum target is 1370 USD per Ethereum ranging untill 1264 USD. I believe this corrective structure will complete around 1350 USD. This is where I close my final shorts just to be safe. For people who have not entered a short at 1526 USD targeting 1375 USD is a nice trade setup with a stop loss above the previous blue iv at around 1544 USD. Keep the larger corrective structure in mind if you are entering this trade. Stay stafe and trade carefully since the 5th wave can allways accelerate and we can still get an extension afterwards. As Always this is no financial advice.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by HodlCrypot
1
Contrarian Call Right Here. Optimal Bullish EntryThis is a typical bullish Wolve Wave that is on the final leg down currently. Expecting whipsaw reversal starting as soon as tomorrow, but main bullish price action will be around June 15 on the full moon (literally howl at the moon). Expecting the yellow trajectory to play out and complete EW wave (5) around 430. The chart contains all the info you need to know, but there are a lot more dynamics at play here, mathematically/statistically, that have led me to feel highly confident about this. - initial target is around 421-422, from there will retest ~415 and then make our way to 429-430 - the goal target is 448 by end of June ...and this makes sense with the confluence of wolve wave 1-4 projection and the ADX breakout "open long" target (stop loss 394) - that DMI is low key bullish af, this is re-accumulation off the May 20 lows in 380s; stochastic RSI oversold and will give the escape velocity needed to reverse here and make explosive move to the upside I'm playing the SPY June 17 411.00 calls and the June 27 429.00 calls, but this is not financial advice. I am fully expecting the price to follow this yellow trajectory, so when you replay the bars at the end of June they'll perfectly coincide with this path, hah. No Cap, Prof. Lupin
AMEX:SPYLong
by JerryManders
11
Howl @ The MoonI posted a bullish idea for SPY (linked) where I did not go into detail about the wolfe wave - I am seeing major confluence with EWT, wolfe wave projection, bigger picture downtrend resistance, target via an indicator I love called "ADX Breakout", and time series forecast for both SPY and QQQ . There happens to be a full moon (a SuperMoon actually) on Tuesday Morning, June 14th, so if a Wolfe Wave gets us to intial target around that time that would be interesting. I'm not going to use any moon phase analysis here, but there is something about the moon that does in fact influence investor sentiment, albeit indirectly, though I am not expert on that subject. This post zooms in on the Bullish Wolfe Wave and is intended for both price action projection near term and education purposes (I don't see many posts covering wolfe waves though they can be $$$ in making seemingly contrarian calls, such as this). In my counts I am using <1,...,5> for the Wolfe Wave and conventional EWC (Elliot Wave count) based on the degree. Overview of Wolfe Wave (WW) : Occurance - An uptrend channel for a bearish Wolfe Wave - A downtrend channel for a bullish WolfeWave -Horizontal channels for consolidating price periods Rules Wave 3 and wave 4 remained in the channel created by waves 1 and 2. Wave 1 and Wave 2 are symmetrical with waves 3 and 4. Wave 5 goes above the trendline created by wave 1 and wave 3 for a bearish pattern. Wave 5 goes below the trendline created by wave 1 and wave 3 for a bullish pattern. Regular timings between waves. It means that the time taken to complete one cycle for the waves 1-3-5 is equal. We can see in my chart that QQQ fits the bill here. There is a signal use to confirm wave <5> called "Wolfe Waves Signals " (Props to @NXT2017 for creating this wizard signal). I like it because it doesn't give frequent signals so when it occurs it is generally the real deal if the chart setup fits the bill. Confluence - EW intermediate count w(4) = WW <5>; projected w(5) aligns with the <1-4> projection at the expected time such that there is perfect symmetry with time between waves (see date ranges on chart). This sets up for an initial target of 317.90 by 6/13/2022 - EW primary count circle 3 aligns with the WW EPA @ ETA - EPA is the estimated price arrival, ETA is estimated time arrival and is established as the point in time where the WW support and resistance lines intersect. The level that these intersect is an equilibrium point where supply = demand; notice that E (expected <5>), w(4), and circle 2 all will occur right around this equilibrium level if we do in fact see a bounce from here and this plays out. This confluence gives us a Target of 341 by 6/29/2022 , and this is also the level of an "open long" target using ADX Breakout (not included here, there is already a lot going on didn't want to crowd the chart; also this target is at the 4H time frame, which actually makes sense with the time to target here). My time series ARIMA(0,1,0), p=0.23, upper 80%-95% PI for June 13 is 319.69 - 324.88 so the 317.90 initial target is reasonable, statistically. My upper 80-95% for June 27 is 334.90 - 348.14, so target of 341 is plausible as well. - The downtrend line through the 11/21/2021 high and the 3/29/2021 high is the red line visible in this chart... so for those that have doubts about WW or EWT you can think of this projection as merely a test of downtrend resistance, which is very plausible considering how much time we have spent down in the gutter attempting to end this corrective wave. The yellow path is illustrative, expecting an impulse from apprx. yesterday's low (i.e. <5> & (4) & circle 2 on chart) toward the initial target (i.e. (5) & <1-4> resistance). From there we will see an intermediate ABC corrective wave that will also serve the purpose of re-testing the WW upper channel to ensure old resistance has become support. After that I just drew a straight trajectory to the target at 341 (i.e. circle 3 & EPA @ ETA), however, this will either be a diagonal or an impulse - I'll update with expected levels is this plays out to intermediate (C). Sincerely, Not Jacob Black
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by JerryManders
1
NZD/USD likely to fall!Hey tradomaniacs, after the ECB-Statement from yesterday we have seen a strong dollar-push as the upcoming rate-hikes were already priced in. The reason for the entire sell-off in equities was basically that the ECB has raised its rate of price increases aswell as lowered the exepctations for economic growth. What a dilemma... I think we might see a continuation of the recent breakout due to the risk-off-sentiment. Still stay cautious ahead the important CPI-Data today which will be very important for the market. But a great chance with tight SL here!
Short
by Trading2ez
GreyScale BitCoin Trust (GBTC) I have never has any interest in Bitcoin nor its derivatives. I like the technology but believe we are still in its early days. That is not to say however I don't follow it. One equity way to position a Bitcoin view is with GreyScale Bitcoin Trust. So currently on a weekly basis there there are two current bullish harmonic Patterns in play ... A Gartley and a Black Swan. Additionally there is also evidence of a bullish Wolfe Wave in play which I have marked with a time and a target. Our final inspection shows an upsloping Andrews Pitchfork which is also has been marked. IMHO this technical analysis evidence suggests we have formed or in the process of forming a significant bottom. That said, I will watch an comment on its progress. BTC may have one final push down to the $23,000 so my game plan is to enter an established GTBC rally just under the $23 level with a stop at approximately $the $17 level. My target is around the $34 level. If it works out that's good.. This is educational investment advice. Do your own due diligence and respect market trends and conditions which as any student of the crypto space can change rapidly . See you in September. S.
G
by Steve666
2
What is the lowest possible price for bitcoin?Ask yourself what is the lowest possible price for bitcoin? 20000? 15000? Theoretically, the price will be - 0. I'm not saying that there will be such a price, but if there is a panic in the market, keep this in mind. By the way, how much is Terra Luna now? Keep in mind that bitcoin was worth exactly zero at first. And the correction will probably drag closer to that number as well. You may start to panic. In May 2010, 10 thousand bitcoins were equal to $40-$50 (an American bought two pizzas for 10 thousand bitcoins). That is, a person sold 10 thousand bitcoins and he actually just gave them away. It is clear that not all of his bitcoins. Perhaps he had 100 thousand bitcoins and he did not feel sorry for selling them. That is, there are people who have a bunch of these bitcoins. Many years have passed, but in fact nothing has changed globally, everything except the value of bitcoin. I can't take and buy anything with bitcoin, there are just a bunch of people who want to sell it for more. I took 2009 as a starting point and drew trend lines from zero. At first, we don't have prices until we sold two pizzas for 10,000 bitcoins. Then the price started to rise sharply. As you can see, each subsequent wave of the trend has less strength. In fact, if you look at the real from afar, bitcoin has not yet hit the real bear market, where the next wave will cover the bottom of the previous one. But as the trend fades, it can happen and the next wave could rewrite the 3000 low. Perhaps this will not happen and bitcoin will hold the 3000 level or be higher than it, but look at the trend. Looks like waves 1, 2, 3 are fixing now. Now look at the volume in 2015 and 2020-2022. Someone is now quietly fixing and distributing bitcoins, At the same time, there are no serous purchases and panic sales. Everything is still ahead!
BNC:BLXShort
by John_Wayne
4