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Wave2

USD/CAD - Wave 1/ is expected to complete near 1.1925USD/CAD has seen a nice impulsive decline from the May high at 1.3794. This impulsive decline is coming to an end near 1.1925 and marks the end of wave 1/ of 3. Once this wave 1/ decline is complete a corrective rally towards the top of wave iv of one lessor degree at 1.2778 is expected. A rally back to the top of wave four of one lessor degree is a very common corrective target. That doesn't mean that the correction in wave 2/ can't break above here, but more often than not the top of wave four of one lessor degree caps the correction in wave 2/. Stay positive towards the Loonie, but don't fall in love with it just now.
by EWS
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: 260 Support Test?ETHUSD Update: 280 support revisited while bearish momentum continues to push prices lower. Even though this correction still has room to test even lower prices, it is normal and will offer a better opportunity to buy, just not yet. As I wrote about a few reports ago, 320 was a significant break and maybe now you can see why. If you look at a weekly chart, it is basically the low of the previous week's Shooting Star like candle. If you read my reports at that time, I describe the bearishness of the signal, and why I would not even think about buying. The current weekly candle closes today and if it closes the way it looks now which is near the low, especially with no wick, then this signals lower prices are still more likely. At the moment I am watching for a retest of the 260 support to see if price can stabilize. A break below opens the possibility to retest the 230 support zone which is related to the .618 of the recent bullish structure. What adds to this argument further is the lower high structure at 340 (which I talked about in previous reports), the wave count, and the ETHBTC chart which offered plenty of warning ahead of this bearish momentum. In terms of Elliott Wave, I am counting the previous bullish 5 wave structure as a 1 of a larger 3. The current corrective legs are part of the subdegree Wave 2 which implies that a larger Wave 3 is likely to follow once this correction completes. Buying too early in anticipation of subdegree Wave 3 of 3 is extremely risky because Wave 2's can be deep corrections. I would rather wait until the bottom is in place and buy at slightly higher prices because at least I will be able to evaluate my risk more effectively than I can at the moment. Also pay attention to the ETHBTC market because it is testing the .06562 triple bottom area. If that level breaks, that will also add to the bearish momentum that can take this market to the lower supports. In summary, my plan is to let the bearish momentum play out and wait for stability at one of the lower support levels before I do anything else. Right now in order for me to get long, I need to see bullish momentum return which means price needs to show evidence of a reversal ALONG WITH a change in momentum. If price revisits 260 or lower, that doesn't mean I will get that low price. When momentum changes, prices will have to be higher in order to confirm the buyers are back. Keep in mind these evaluations are short term in scope and if you plan to hold for more than a few weeks, or months, then you can start building a position at any low, just make sure to have a very well defined investment plan and don't get too big too fast. The bullish momentum will return and when it does, the market will provide the proof. Until then, I wait. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Where's The Support?ETHUSD Update: Correction unfolds as anticipated, but at a much larger magnitude which calls for a wave count adjustment. The next support levels for potential reversals are 326, 305 and 296. I have been writing about it for over a week. My caution and concern kept me out of this market even though someone actually insisted I was "losing money" by waiting. I reiterated that the risk was high, and for those who are blindly driven by greed, the market will teach you this lesson just like it taught me over the years. In case you don't know, compared to the market, I am a much more cost effective instructor and nicer too. I am sure many are wondering "What is going on?" and scouring the forums and news to look for any related information. BTC, along with the other coins have retraced significantly within a day. Out of no where the "follow the leader" relationship reasserts itself. The beauty of price action and TA in general is it doesn't matter why, The market discounts everything, and whatever is shaking out the reactionary weak hands is a normal and healthy sign. I don't even need to know why. What I need to do is be prepared to buy back in at the right time and price. So let's talk levels. The supports at 365 and 350 were taken out with some hesitation, but none the less, taken out. Remember when I mention levels, they are reference points to observe further validation (something the people with very limited knowledge fail to understand). Validation means we are WAITING for reversal patterns, not buying blindly and then wondering why the price just fell through. If the reversal never comes, or fails, then we look to the next level. At the moment, the 326 to the 305 support zone (.618 area of recent bullish swing) is the next area I am watching for a bullish reversal that I can measure risk from. IF price falls below this range, 296 is the .382 of the entire bullish structure and needs to hold in order to argue that this market is still bullish and not going into a broader consolidation. In terms of Elliott Wave, this is NOT the beginning Wave 4 which I was expecting and writing about since we had 5 subwaves of the previous Wave 3 complete. The problem is in order to call this current structure a motive wave, the current retrace should not overlap into the area of the proportional Wave 1 and it has (red dotted line). Since the rule has been compromised by the market, I was forced to relabel my count. Instead of Wave 3 of 5, that entire up leg completed 5 of 5 waves. That puts the magnitude of this current retracement into a new light. Another lesson about Elliott Wave is even though I was wrong about the anticipated magnitude of the current wave, I was right about the direction and the methodology has proven to help me avoid getting caught in a losing trade once again. Now that I have perspective on this magnitude, I know that this correction may be part of a very broad Wave 2. And if I get any reversals to go long, I know to expect very conservative targets unless the support level is extreme like 296. Even then, if the market manages to retest that level and I buy, I will unload most of the position into the mid 300s. Since we never took out the high of the broader Wave 1, the current 5 wave structure may be the fist leg of a very broad Wave 3 or a Wave B of the broader Wave 2. Either way, those counts point to a bearish wave which means there is more of a chance we retest lower levels before stability returns. In summary, the crowd is always wrong at tops and bottoms. Whenever you read about outrageous targets and euphoric sentiment, that is usually an anecdotal sign of a top and there has been way too much of that in these markets recently. The swift retracement is larger in magnitude which may lead to significant selling if there is no stabilization at anticipated support levels of 326, 305 and 296 so I am just going to wait it out. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
49
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Up Swing, Corrective Extension.ETHUSD Update: 334 resistance has been taken out, but there is no follow through and the current up swing is not performing as expected, prompting me to consider it an extension of the minor corrective wave. First let's get into what is going on with the levels. The minor resistance zone 324 to 334 (,618 of previous bear swing) has been slowly compromised. The problem is the lack of momentum. When price pushed above 334, it should have attracted more buyers and momentum should follow. Instead price went no where which is not a bullish sign. I am bullish in general, and I am still waiting for the pull back that I wrote about in previous reports. My plan is very simple: IF price retraces to the 306 to 295 support area (.618 of current bullish swing), and it can show a reversal pattern on a smaller time frame, then I will get back in. Keep in mind that I am flexible, and willing to get in sooner IF I see a compelling formation, but there is nothing to write about. If price just goes without me, I don't mind, it won't be the first time. I have lost more money because of the fear of missing out, than by missing out. Waiting is a more profitable strategy, but not a fun one. In terms of wave count, this market should be in the beginning of the Wave 3 of 5 again, BUT this leg is not acting like a Wave 3 at all. The 334 break should have been awe inspiring and instead was lackluster to put it nicely. Plus Wave 3's are never the shortest wave, and right now when I compare it to the subdegree Wave 1 structure, it is shorter. This behavior leads me to believe the current up swing is nothing more than part of the subdegree Wave 2 correction. Which means there is still potential for a retrace to the support zone that I am interested in. In summary, this market seems to go in spurts, and again is waiting its turn for the order flow. Price structure continues to be bullish, but the most recent leg up is more likely part of the corrective wave that this market has been in for a few days now. Keep in mind, a rally can appear out of nowhere, and I am okay with missing the move. I prefer to wait for a retrace into the 306 area and see if the market can meet my criteria in order for me to get back in. If I miss it, there will be more opportunities. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
46
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Corrective Wave Appearance.ETHUSD Update: Larger than expected retrace alters wave count and offers good lessons about price action and trade management. Outlook is still bullish as long as supports are maintained. Wow, what a wild move. This is why I always remind everyone "anything can happen". In terms of wave counts, this move changes the structure because Wave 4's do not overlap the area of Wave 1's. If there is overlap then it is not a Wave 4, which has prompted me to relabel the waves. The large move up is relabeled as subdegree Wave 1 and the current retrace is subdegree wave 2 of the larger 5. This is the subjectivity and imperfection of Elliott Wave, but then again nothing is perfect, especially in the markets. As price action traders we understand this and simply ADJUST. The market is always right, we are just trying our best to listen. There is no room for ego in this game. Even though my original wave count (current move to 350 as subdegree Wave 3) was negated by the current retrace, it still manged to get me into a very good trade. I sold half of my position at 345 as reported yesterday and I was stopped out for the other half at 306 for a 12 point profit. I was willing give back some profit for the chance to participate in the broader move. Like one of my former mentors used to say, "Sometimes you get the elevator, and sometimes you get the shaft." The question now is where to from here? My adjusted wave count places this market in a subdegree Wave 2. Which is good and bad. It's good because it can be setting up for another subdegree Wave 3 which can take us to the 380 resistance that I have been writing about. It's bad because corrective waves usually unfold in 3's and at the moment there is only one leg in place. Which means the minor resistance in the 324 to 334 area is likely to lead to range bound price action with support at the 290 to 295 area. The 279 and 263 supports are the main structures that keep this entire formation bullish. As long as they hold, I will be looking for ways to get long. The 334 and 350 resistances need to be taken out in order to signal the new subdegree Wave 3 is in play and again it is all a matter of time or catalyst. In order for me to buy back into this market, I need to see some form of reversal structure like a higher low or double bottom on this time frame. And it needs to occur within the 290 to 334 range. In summary, we must always maintain flexibility and an open mind. Financial markets possess an element of randomness and this is why nothing is ever 100%. We listen, and as the market provides new information, we adjust. Elliott Wave may be imperfect, BUT it kept me on the right side of the market and that is really all that matters. Current structure puts this market back into a subdegree Wave 2, which means there is still potential to reach the 380 resistance area in the next leg up, BUT two more corrective legs are likely to unfold first. Trading effectively is not about being "right" it's about managing risk in the face of constant uncertainty. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
23
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: 279 Retest And Buying.ETHUSD Update: This market has retested the 279 support yet again and is attempting to hold. I wrote about this in my previous report. As long as 279 and 263 hold, this market is just waiting its turn for the spotlight. At the moment, BCH has wowed the media and markets with its completely unexpected push to over 900 in a matter of days. Impressive, and as one trader suggested, is taking attention (and orderflow) away from the rest of the coins. Perhaps investors are selling some ETH to get in on the BCH train. The retrace that we are experiencing in this market is nothing unusual from a technical perspective. The support levels 263 and 279 keep this bullish structure intact. IF 263 is broken, then that would be more cause for concern and caution. If anything a retrace to these lows offers a buying opportunity so I am adding to my position. I updated my previous report with my add at 291.68, stop at 276 and target 340. My reason for the add is the magnitude of the bounce off the 279 low. It is sharp and the candle on the 4 hour qualifies as a bullish engulfing candle which is a reversal pattern within my trading plan. I only added 25% to my current position and it basically has the same RR as the original position. Reporting an actual trade is very tough for me to do in a timely manner so I am doing the best I can to get this information out and have a clear explanation. A break of 292 minor resistance (.382 of recent bear swing) will signal a continuation upward and another attempt at the 306 to 315 area. 315 needs to be cleared in order to prove that this market is on its way to the 350 resistance. In summary, the current retrace is still within bullish boundaries. As long as 279 and 263 supports are maintained, it can be argued that this market still has the structure in place to retest the 315 resistance at least. The push off of 279 has prompted me to add to my position with the same risk/reward. Watch for the 292 break to open the door to a retest of the minor highs, which if broken this time, can lead this market toward the 350 resistance target. All this market needs is a catalyst which can come out of nowhere and cannot be anticipated by a chart. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
15
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Higher Low Is Bullish But Slow.ETHUSD Update: Higher low unfolds in the low 290s which establishes a subdegree Wave 2 bottom. All this market needs is a catalyst because in terms of price structure, this it is poised to push the 315 resistance. So much for the head and shoulders everyone was afraid of. If that bearish reversal pattern was in play, we would be breaking supports, not forming higher lows. Many may not realize it, but it seems they try to outsmart the market, and you can't. Instead, let the market prove itself. As price action traders we are detectives, not warriors. Higher lows as we know often lead to higher highs, especially in a strong market. Since this market is slow and lacks any significant catalyst, the subdegree wave 2 that we are currently in may linger and develop into a small triangle. This condition can lead price back into the low 290s and even into the 280s again. The key to this activity, (as I have written about in other reports) is watching the support levels. 279 and 263 still hold. As long as price stays above these proportionally bullish levels, expecting a breakout in the short term is reasonable. In terms of wave count, subdegree Wave 3 is never the shortest wave, which means if this market enters subdegree Wave 3, in terms of proportion, price reaching the 350s makes sense. This market just needs a catalyst. Maybe, as some have suggested, BTC needs to cool off and those participants will pour into this market. A quick look at the ETH/BTC chart shows price consolidating within a significant support area, which adds to ETH bullish argument even further. A 320 resistance break will confirm subdegree Wave 3 is in progress. In summary, the small higher low formation in the low 290s is a welcome bullish sign, but until a catalyst enters this market, a subdegree Wave 2 triangle is possible before subdegree Wave 3 unfolds. 279 and 263 support levels need to hold in order to maintain this bullish outlook. A breakout above 320 opens the door to my 350 target area, and at this point it is just a matter of time. Keep in mind I am NOT making predictions, anything can happen in this market. I am evaluating price structures, and making comparisons to get an idea of what is more likely to happen. Less experienced participants think they are jut looking at lines and candle sticks. What they are missing is that the patterns formed by these candle sticks provide information about the underling motivations of the buyers and sellers whose orderflow made those candles appear. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
17
Moving nicely to start Wave 2 Minor within Wave 3 intermediateFBR Fastbrick Robotics (FBR:ASX) Moving nicely LONG on Intermediate Period with a start SHORT for Wave 2 Minor within Wave 3 intermediate. A good entry point for this stock will be on the completion of Wave 2 on the Minor period to go LONG Reference to my previous chart here: 15th August 2017: Fastbrick have announced, Robots to assist building homes in Saudi Arabia, which has driven the price of this stock to a high of almost 0.30, thus developing a Wave 3 on the minor period inside a Wave 3 within an Intermediate period. Twitter Announcement here: twitter.com ASX Announcement here: www.asx.com.au Other Media here: thewest.com.au ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar. This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out. .....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP ! :::::..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASX:FBRLong
by UnknownUnicorn661419
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Large Scale Wave 2 ?ETHUSD Update: Dramatic price movement always calls for evaluation of the big picture. The 136 low is dramatic and causing a great deal of discomfort (if you read the ETH forums on Reddit). Again I have to say this market is not as bearish as it feels. This is a zoomed out chart of this market since is pre 10 dollar levels. Looking at this from an Elliot Wave perspective, the rally that took this market to the all time peak, can be a large scale Wave 1. Currently we are seeing a sharp retracement which fits within the Elliot Wave rule: Wave 2 does not go beyond 100% of Wave 1. Technically this market can go back to 6, and still be within the rule, so I understand the critics of this subjective reasoning, but the reason why I am pointing out the possibility of a large scale Wave 2 is because of the support zone that price is within at the moment. 160 is the .618 of the entire upward swing (Wave 1). Typically in a sharp Wave 2 correction, price will retrace into the .618 area of Wave 1. On this chart, this area is 160 to 94. It is a very wide zone and it is possible for price to touch 94, stabilize and reverse to begin a large scale Wave 3. This is very similar to what happened with BTC back in 2013 to 2015. In 2013 BTC reached 1000, (Wave 1) and eventually retraced back to the 200 area (Wave 2) and then went to 3000 this year (Wave 3). A large scale Wave 3 in ETH should take this market beyond it's all time high, but this can take 6 months to a year to play out in my opinion. On the big picture, the key resistance that needs to be compromised in order to signal healthy large scale buying is the 240 area. This is the .382 of the entire bearish swing. Unless that resistance is taken out to the upside, this market more likely to continue lower toward the 94 level. Within this .618 zone, anything can happen, especially with the UASF hype and overreaction. I expect price to stabilize within this zone, especially AFTER 8/1, and I will stay out of this market until then. I want to remind the less experienced traders and investors, to not worry about "missing out". People thought 160 was a great price to buy, and it went to the 130s. And price may still go as low as 94. In summary, I am now neutral on ETH since the 160 support break. My intent is to catch the next large scale leg back up, but the market needs to let me know when that possibility is more reasonable to expect and right now, that is not the case. It is very possible for a large scale reversal pattern to appear, but there is nothing in site yet. I am going to sit back and let everyone else worry and stress over the UASF. Once that is out of the system, price will provide a much better idea of where it wants to go. This evaluation is meant to provide a broad overview of this market and to offer perspective. Any comments or questions are welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
NBG Almost finished Double Zig Zag Wave 2NBG Long term Chart: I strongly believe we are currently in a corrective wave 2 of a long term wave C pattern that should complete near the fall, end of the year. What I previously thought was an expanding diagonal () now appears to be a double zig zag corrective wave 2. If A=C in the corrective zig zag, then we can retrace as far as 2.95, but using channeling, fibs, and market sentiment as a whole, I believe we might start to bend up before that, around the 3.09-3.18 mark. That would be a great LONG entry. If we dip below the bottom of wave 1 (2.90) then ALL BETS WOULD BE OFF, as wave 2 can never retrace more then wave 1. However, if this turns around when I intend, we should experience a strong wave 3 move to the upside soon.
NLong
by Nathanael
8