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Wave3

Bitcoin: Waiting For Long Setup 8400 AREA.Bitcoin consolidating again after the dramatic short squeeze to the 10,200 area. In fact, there is a sell signal in place as I write this, but is Bitcoin a short? Those that can appreciate my analysis and perspective know that answer to that, while everyone else chases 5 minute charts. In this article, I will update the relevant levels in play and what we are looking for in order to enter a new swing trade long. Don't get caught up in the "WHY!?", because all that really matters is "WHERE". And to recognize high probability locations, elements like magnitude and trend need to be defined clearly. I was consistently writing about the high probability of a short squeeze while Bitcoin was gyrating in the 7Ks, and pointed out a lack of trend. In order to put that statement into perspective, you need to understand how I am defining trend. My definition is derived specifically from the daily time frame, along with guidelines that come from the Elliott Wave frame work. 1. Our strategy defines trend as follows: 3150 to 14K is larger degree Wave 1 (BULLISH), 14K to 7295 Wave 2 (Corrective consolidation of a BULLISH broader trend). Even though price was pushing lows within the consolidation (9300 break to 7293) this is still part of Wave 2 which on the larger magnitude does NOT qualify as a bearish trend). This broader perspective offers insight into the probabilities of a location and why the HERD gets caught off guard shorting into fake out zones. 2. 7293 is a higher low relative to 3150. This is now a major support level and defines the broader Wave 2 low. Higher lows often lead to HIGHER HIGHS. 3. The magnitude of the short squeeze to 10,200 is a typical impulse that usually defines the initial wave of the next broader move. In other words, this could be the first leg of a broader Wave 3. According to Elliott Wave Theory, Wave 3 is NEVER the shortest wave. 4. With the initial impulse in place, the current minor consolidation is nothing more than a corrective wave (minor Wave 2) that can technically retrace to the low of minor Wave 1 (7295) and still be considered bullish. We are anticipating a reversal around the 8472 to 7974 minor support zone. It is this support zone that offers a high probability location for SWING TRADE long setups. 5. Although a Wave 2 low is established, the overall range is still the 14K high to 7295 low. This means we still operate under the guidelines of a RANGE BOUND market, UNTIL the shorter term trend is confirmed (14K needs to be taken out). Range bound guidelines affect how we evaluate risk and profit targets. 6. Momentum and trend are SEPARATE elements. You can have bullish momentum in a bearish trend, and vice versa. Even though there is a sell signal (current bearish candle) the short term momentum is still bullish. Unless you are day trading, shorting this market is a very high risk proposition. It is important to comprehend that we refrain from day trading Bitcoin. Yes there will be countless trends, chart patterns and signals on smaller time frames, BUT the randomness is VERY HIGH. Where many go wrong is they take day trade signals and expect swing trade profit targets (which is the equivalent of gambling). This is what lures bears into shorting around 7630 and setting profit targets at 6500. Those who chase are the ones who provide liquidity (and profits) to those who have the ability to WAIT. The weeks leading up to the squeeze required a ton of patience because there was very little reason to trade during that time. We had a swing trade on from 8425 that got stopped out once Bitcoin broke 7630. We took our small loss and simply WAIT for the next high probability SWING TRADE setup. Many get caught up in smaller time frames because they offer a lot more action (more signals, etc). There is nothing wrong with that as long as your strategy is SPECIFICALLY developed for such time frames. We avoid small time frames and FOCUS on the bigger picture because we are involved in a variety of other markets (stocks, forex, cfds, etc.). As someone who is starting out, it is a good idea to focus on one market, so that you may learn the basics of timing. Once you develop a solid understanding, then you can trade ANY market because order flow is order flow, no matter if you are in a stock, a futures contract or Bitcoin. And with the availability and easy access to other markets today, there is no excuse NOT to be applying timing strategies to wherever opportunities appear.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
16
May finally be time to get short CMGCMG has had a helluva run, but I am of the opinion that it is reaching the top of it's 3rd Wave up, sitting right at the 1.618 fib extension of Wave 1. Also very near current channel resistance trend line, which adds to the short idea. Personally I look for the pullback to drag CMG back down to the low 600's, around 615-620 area most likely. Crazy as it may sound however, I really do think this is only the 3rd wave up, and expect to see a 5th Wave extension, in this case quite possibly taking CMG all the way up to what some would say is the astronomical price range of low 1300's. Rough sketch of candle path on chart. In any event, I am looking for CMG to run out of gas very near current price area, and will be initiating a short position very soon, most likely before the end of next week. Stochastic has also been coiling very smoothly near its top range, and I look for a breakout to the downside to very nearly coincide with stock price decline. Happy hunting, and GLTA!!
NYSE:CMGShort
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
3
EURAUD shortI will be waiting for a break and retest of my boxed zone and a 4H confirmation candle before entering short to around 1.5800. II must wait for a break and retest as price is currently at 1.27 fib extension so price could still reverse from here. However confluence for EURAUD start with a strong bearish close on weekly showing momentum for the bears swell as price breaking through both EMAS. On daily both my 20ema and 50ema have crossed showing potential for more bearish movement. My target being the 1.618 fib extension where I will be looking for longs on corrective wave 4 up to around 1.600. My trade should look something like this: SELL EURAUD ~@ 1.5910 SL @ 1.5955 (-45) TP @ 1.5780 (130) R:R = 2.9 After this move I will be looking for longs but I will post this when the time comes, and if price plays out how I hope it does...
Short
by andrewlickley
Holiday Shortened Week Will See Fireworks in S&P 500This brief projection is based on a full study of the current Intermediate Wave 1 I am tracking for the S&P 500 index. We will see upward movement to begin the week with a top in the afternoon on July 2, 2019. We will likely drop 5-10 points into the close on this day. The light blue numbers with parentheses around them represent each wave's end point for the Minuette waves. These projections are likely to be the most accurate on this projection chart. The orange roman numeral 4 with a circle around it represents the projected end point for Minute wave 4. This is relatively in place, but likely to change based on the actual movement experienced through Minute wave 3 (orange roman numeral with circle around it). The ultimate top for Intermediate wave 1 is currently projected to occur in the afternoon on July 8, 2019 with a peak around 3048-3064. This would mean a new all time high is set to occur (likely multiple times between now and then). In trying to apply real world events to a reason for a top and then a decline would likely revolve around the Fed. They will most likely NOT cut interest rates as many expect. They may however leave the door open for cuts as necessary in the future. This could see the index pullback over a total of 8 trading days with a bottom around 2875.04. I am forecasting Intermediate wave 3 to be incredibly strong and last for up to 2 months or around the time of the 2020 US government fiscal year begins. It would be earnings season which could be the reason for a rising market (even if it is not fundamentally warranted). The end of the 2019/beginning of 2020 fiscal year could likely lead to a partisan fight in DC over what the budget should look like especially in a pre-election year. This is as far out as I plan to forecast for now, and will adjust as necessary. I am bullish on the market until the second quarter next year. I foresee a major recession beginning next year well before the 2020 election.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
2
Euphoric July 4th from BITCOIN(WAVE 3- 2.62 Extension IN PLAY)* Stocks have been on fire the last week since the FED communicated their dovish-ness. Certainly that market confidence is spilling into bitcoin. The correlation between equities and bitcoin has been quite impressive since the bottoms (around 3k). More and more corporate portfolios include bitcoin. For now this looks extremely bullish(Wave 3).What could change the sentiment? A) Q2 Earnings Season (around the middle of July) B)Bad News on Trade talks with China. * Parabolic movements usually do not end up well. However, if it closes above 11k, it might be looking for a 2.62 extension and a potential target of 13.1k. It all depends on how long this sentiment goes on. -Something to watch out on: Sentiment indicator for crypto Fear & Greed- 84( Extreme Greed ) {Credit alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/} A sudden change of momentum can be expected at any moment. 2 Other potential indicators are the price action of Ether and the crypto market cap. 1. The next potential resistance for the market can can be in the range of 400-460 Billion(currently at 332 B's). 2. When it comes to Ether; The most likely extreme profit collection zone would be around 350-360. If there's a change in momentum in Ether after a drop- that confidence loss might spillover into Bitcoin. We will see how it all turns out during the earnings season. >>If you liked this idea give it a thumbs up! Every follow is much appreciated!>> Full Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me.
Long
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
Gitfo looking very bullish for start of wave 3Not financial/investment advice. Invest at your own risk. GTO breakout on the daily. Looking very bullish on a my major indicators. Do not pay attention to the time line. The targets can happen in rapid succession or played out. Everything is fractal. Could retrace slightly more down to 730 before pumping to 1280-1340. From here, the trend could totally end. Really depends on what bitcoin does. If bitcoin remains bullish, then we could see a 5th wave in GTO and many other alts play out. If this is wave completes, my wave 5 target is marked in green but this is crypto and STRETCH targets of 1788 to 2038 are quite possible.
GLong
by jdharward