Wave3
BTC Giant Inverse Head and Shoulders Completes Today?Good morning campers. I'm your Uncle Ernie and I welcome you to Tommys Holiday Camp.
(The camping with a difference!)
Okay, so... we could complete this huge inverse H&S today if it can just bust thru that 0.382 fib,
and that yellow neck line. But it needs to bust thru decisively, eh?
If it can do that and not look back... we may get that acceleration of Wave 3...
at least the subwave 3 portion of the larger WAVE 3 that is ideally in progress.
What do you think?
Wakey Wakey -- Eggs and Bakey!
update to BTSnice movement last night, check previous post for more in depth analysis.
time to accumulate more before this goes UP
Intel Set To Lead Intermediate Bears DownAlthough, harder to identify at first, Intel Corporation is in the process of Grand Supercycle Wave 3. The stock has most likely met a near-term top or will do so no later than tomorrow, January 23. Our short-term target is 40.50 by the end of February. Our Intermediate target is 30.00 by June of 2019. Once the stock reverses up from this 30 mark, the stock should fly high for a while. Finally, the long-term target is 78.00 well out in to the future (2022-2024). As always, the rest of the stats will be up shortly on our site.
Tron Finished Corrections?TRX finished a 5 wave impulse and is correctly experiencing corrections. A WXYXZ correction has been completed and TRX could soon start impulsing. The 5 wave impulse could be the subwaves of intermediate wave 1. That means the biggest wave (wave 3) has yet to come. I used the fibonacci extensions at 1.618, 1.272, and 1 to set the targets.
Status Coin About to Gain Some StatusSNT just completed some major corrections and has already started impulsing up, starting primary wave 3 (pink). SNT have just started the first leg of intermediate wave 1(dark blue) and is currently on minor wave 3 (black). By using a 1.618 Fibonacci Extension of minor wave 1 for wave 3 and a 1 to 1 Extension for wave 4, we get a first target of $0.62 This is just the beginning for this coin as we are not even done the first intermediate wave yet! This coin would be one of my top picks for holding and forgetting.
XVG about to EXPLODEXVG is forming a symmetrical triangle, which usually is a powerful continuation signal. The symmetrical triangle also happens to be the corrective wave of wave 1 in the form of a ABCDE pattern, and its completion signals that wave 3 will start soon. Since wave 3 is usually the longest, XVG probably will hit at least $0.39 (1 to 1 Extension). However, because the crypto market is so bullish, XVG will most likely exceed that target, possibly reaching $0.65 (1.618 Fibonacci Extension) or more.
In addition, within the symmetrical triangle, there are three falling wedges. The first two wedges led to a noticeable spike in price but failed to bring a decisive breakout. But as the saying goes, "Third time is the charm," the third wedge (the one XVG is currently forming), will likely bring an all time high. Market trends tend to come in sets of three (sometimes two). For instance, the impulse waves have 3 motive waves (waves that drive the price up) before a correction. Also, the triple combo corrections and the WXYZ corrections have 3 corrective sub-waves before starting another impulse. Once three of whatever pattern happens, the price is likely to change. XVG's three corrective wedges could signal the end of the corrections.
Neo; Short Term CorrectionNeo just completed five sub-waves, and after 5 waves, a correction occurs. The correction usually is between the 0.382 and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
We can open a short position with a tight stop just above the peak and a target at the 0.382 Fib retracement level, which gives us over 1:5 risk to reward ratio. That means, we only have to be right about 1/6 of the time to make this trade profitable.
If we zoom out and look at the bigger picture, we see that Neo is only on intermediate wave 3. It has one more wave to go, and it will likely bring us another all time high. We set our buyback zone according to the Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.382 and 0.618.
ETHUSD: Don't Buy High. Consider Bigger Picture.ETHUSD update: New all time high established at 1225 as price backs off into the mid 1100s. When markets runaway, the best thing to do is evaluate the bigger picture to get a better sense of perspective and risk, not get carried away by euphoria. In this report I am going to highlight the next proportional target as well as relevant support levels.
Elliott Wave offers a way to categorize market movements and provides a framework to help anticipate how the herd is likely to react next. I am always aware of wave counts, but I do not write about them unless they are worth noting in order to avoid confusion. Now is one of those times worth mentioning where this market is in terms of wave count.
At the moment, this market appears to be in a Wave 3 of a broader 5. This price action is typical of a wave 3 since it can never be the shortest wave according to impulse wave rules. This also means the next retrace will be a sub wave 4 and likely unfold in some form of narrow range triangle before breaking out and completing 5 of 5 waves. This serves as a broader road map, and is not an absolute prediction.
The potential support levels for the sub wave 4 can be around the 1000 level (.382 of current bullish swing measured from 640 low) or the 863 to 771 zone (.618 of same bullish swing). These are the levels to evaluate for smaller time frame price reversals that can lead to the next bullish wave which has the proportional target of 1385 (2.618 projection measured from 492 low).
Buying highs is a high risk behavior, while locking in some profit is a best practice, especially in markets that go vertical like this one. IF the current candle closes in this configuration (a bearish pin bar) that warns of further selling and can be the beginning of the sub wave 4 retrace.
In summary, there are always more opportunities in these markets and no need to be emotional about missing out. All markets retrace and offer more opportunities at much more attractive reward/risk ratios. The next significant retrace in this market still offers an attractive buying opportunity for at least one more leg higher before it is reasonable to expect a much broader correction based on the current wave count. The best thing you can do is be patient and keep an eye on the bigger picture because it helps you anticipate the herd and not react to it.
Comments and questions welcome.
NXT progressing through extended wave 3 ?It seems NXT is progressing through an extended wave3 count on the Minor period and wave 1 on the Intermediate period.
Currently price action is inside a massive resistance area, with all EMAs flared whilst price action is well above the 13 'EMA' Ketchup. 'TDI' already shows signs of overbought position with the 'RSI' line already in the '70.0000' area and possibly about to form a sharkfin. I'm expecting the RSI to breach the '80.0000' area to the Wave3 target.
This coin is bullish for me and I'll be holding and adding to my position once wave 4 has been completed.
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DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar.
This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out.
.....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP! :::::.....
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ETHUSD: Roadmap To 814 Target?ETHUSD update: With 760 being the all time high and no real weakness in sight, it is important to gain a sense of how far can these markets go on the short term in order to decide whether to invest now or not. In this report I will refer to Elliott Wave in order to evaluate the potential reward / risk over the short term (next few weeks/month).
People often ask, "Why do you not always use Elliott Wave in your analysis?". Just because it is not on a chart, does not mean I am not using it. As a price action trader, I am always aware of the wave counts and will only write about them when they are relevant and clear. Otherwise they will confuse people.
In this chart, I am observing the wave counts on a weekly time frame. Why weekly? Because it provides a much clearer perspective of how much further this market can go before the next correction.(Note to new investors: markets do eventually correct).
As far as the current count, it appears this market is in a Wave 5 of a larger Wave 3. According to the basic rules of an impulse wave, wave 3 can never be the shortest wave. Often, wave 3's are large, move fast and are very euphoric. We are seeing this across many of these coins at the moment. Often any news and events that are in line with this trend will drive the price faster, while counter trend or negative news will has less of an effect. The bias is clearly bullish.
Based on the 1.618 extension measured from the Wave 2 low (140), the next proportionate target is the 814 area which provides some insight as far as where this market may find some significant resistance and begin a potential Wave 4 correction (I know no one wants to hear about corrections). The popular view is "Hey 1K around the corner!", which is possible, but these 1.618 extensions combined with the fact that this market is in a 5th wave, highlights the riskiness of taking new long positions at these levels. (Unless you don't mind a couple of hundred points of pain).
IF the market finds resistance in this area and a Wave 4 unfolds, a relevant level to evaluate for support (and possible buying opportunities) the the 518 to mid 400s area. Why? 518 is the .382 of the bullish structure measured from the broader Wave 2 low. This is where buying for the longer term would offer more attractive reward/risk compared to where price is now.
In summary, Elliott Wave serves as a road map, and is NOT an exact forecasting tool. There is NO precision in these markets, especially right now. Buying and holding works great when markets don't correct and go up 30%+ per day which is not realistic and will be temporary. For those who are in from lower levels, and plan to hold as an investment, it never hurts to lock some profit in and hold on to some no matter what happens. There seems to be this blind greed where people consider not locking in profit at the "top" a loss. Selling tops and buying bottoms are lottery tickets and if you are coming out of this market with more money than you entered with, that is a win which will not be appreciated until reality sets in. When markets are extreme as these are right now, it always helps to get perspective from a very large time frame like a weekly. Applying waves counts in this context does not offer exact buy/sell signals but instead provides a framework and levels that illustrate where the reward/risk is more attractive for entering longer term positions. No matter how you slice it, these markets are risky. The greater the risk the greater potential reward, you just have to be aware of the broader probabilities. Buying highs works at the moment, but in the long run is an ineffective behavior. The bad habits that are being created in this environment will be opportunities for the skilled traders when the correction comes. This cycle repeats itself over and over and has since the beginning of financial markets, and is the reason why TA has merit for those who know how to use it properly.
Questions and comments welcome.
VTC Vertcoin is going vertical !It seems that Vertcoin is in a major bullish trend and based on my wave count, is currently in a Minor period Wave3 which should be confirmed at the breakout of structure marked on the chart. All EMAs are now upwards pointing, TDI shows continued upwards trend (Weekly Chart) yet to form a sharkfin, but still outside of the outer bands. The Sharkfin should play out at the end of the wave3 move with the wave4 correction, to then continue LONG for the wave5. In my opinion, this is a great opportunity to buy a great coin, which will no doubt be one of the big earners. Once breakout occurs of structure, i will be purchasing this coin and hold long-term.
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DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar.
This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out.
.....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP! :::::.....
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Bitcoin Gold Ready for Liftoff; Long to 580BTG has been downtrending for quite a while now and has completed its 3-3-5 flat ABC correction. The correction also formed a bullish falling wedge, accompanied by falling volume indicating falling selling pressure.
We had a very strong bounce on Dec 7 of the support line of the falling wedge, possibly setting up for wave 3. According to Elliott Wave rules, wave 3 is never the shortest and often the longest. That means we will get a minimal target of $480 with a 1 to 1 Extension. That is a whooping 90% gain! Some more aggressive targets include the 1.272 and the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension, which are $550 and $650, which will more than double your money.
Of course, there is a still the possibility that we haven't finished corrections yet. In that case, we would have another 2 bounces in the falling wedge and form an ABCDE correction. We get a short term conservative target of $265 instead. The long-term targets would still remain similar, only dropping by $20 (which gives us $460, $530, and $630).
ETH Long from 420 to 520; Just finished ABC Corrections.We just finished an ABC correction for wave 2. Wave A, if you zoom in, shows a very clear 12345 impulse.
i.imgur.com
Wave B is an ABCDE rising wedge, which I mistaken for a 12345 leading diagonal in a previous post. Wave C is another 12345 impulse, completing the 5-3-5 zigzag.
Wave C also happen end at a 1 to 1 Fibonacci Extension from wave A, creating a point for reversal. In addition, on the RSI, we see a bullish falling wedge just ready to break out.
If we use our Fibonacci Extension of the the big wave 1 (black wave), we get targets of 520 and 580 for a 1 to 1 and 1.618, respectively. Remember, wave 3 is never the shortest and usually the longest.
XLM/BTC The coveted Wave 3 is already here. still lots to go.XLM has officially bottom and everything is aligning for take off.
-50 MA crossed 100 MA on daily recently
-RSI, MACD all bullish on all mid to long time frames
-weekly bull MACD cross occurred 1-2 weeks ago, all set for multi week/month uptrend
And the 2 things that hold XLM back
-the 50 day MA crossing the 200 day MA
-1k satoshi price level
Black line trailing down is 200 MA
red line moving up is 50 MA
purple is 100 MA
currently ascending triangle, if it can hover between 850-1000 satoshis, this should happen within 1 week or 2. There is room for this to consolidate further in 600-800 satoshi range, this could take another month.
but rest assured, when the last of these indicators occur, all bets are off.
First Wave was 125 satoshis to 450 satoshis
bottom at 250 satoshi.
trend based fib extension shows incredible levels. remember wave 3 must be longer than wave 1. and there is so much more backing this wave 3...
i think 1.618 and 2.618 extensions make for likely targets 3-6 months from now. and with the collapse of btc to "normal" price around $5-6k, 4.236 fib extension makes sense as well.
We have IBM blockchain specialists posting in the stellar reddit and barely able to keep their excitement for what is coming. think about that.
Bitcoin - Time to be fearfulThe buying frenzy in Bitcoin, just continues to push it higher and higher. There is no time to correct properly. The rally is now close to being vertical, which isn't a good thing.
I was look for this rally to may extend to 10,768 and here we are. However, the extreme buying frenzy could push Bitcoin into the 11,073 - 11,627 area, but it's time to become fearful and take a contrarian approach.
Yesterday the Danish news ran a story about a mom, that had bought Bitcoin from her son's savings account. I'm not saying it's not a good investment, but that is a sign to me, to become very fearful.
A break below minor support at 9,848 will indicate that wave (3) has peaked and wave (4) towards at least 6,700 is developing.
As wave (2) was a deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a time-consuming and complex sideways correction in wave (4).
Tighten up your stops!
Bitcoin - The final swings of wave (3) developingBitcoin has seen a phenomenal rally in wave (3). Only a year ago it traded near 755 against the USD and now it hovers near 8,100. I'm still looking for a little more upside closer to 9,150, but the best part of the rally in wave (3) is now behind us.
As wave (2) was a simple, but deep zig-zag correction, we should expected wave (4) to be a complex structure in the form of a flat or a triangle consolidation and it should be relatively shallow compared to wave (2). But a relatively shallow correction of 38.2% of wave (3), will still mean a decline close to 5,800.