XVG about to EXPLODEXVG is forming a symmetrical triangle, which usually is a powerful continuation signal. The symmetrical triangle also happens to be the corrective wave of wave 1 in the form of a ABCDE pattern, and its completion signals that wave 3 will start soon. Since wave 3 is usually the longest, XVG probably will hit at least $0.39 (1 to 1 Extension). However, because the crypto market is so bullish, XVG will most likely exceed that target, possibly reaching $0.65 (1.618 Fibonacci Extension) or more.
In addition, within the symmetrical triangle, there are three falling wedges. The first two wedges led to a noticeable spike in price but failed to bring a decisive breakout. But as the saying goes, "Third time is the charm," the third wedge (the one XVG is currently forming), will likely bring an all time high. Market trends tend to come in sets of three (sometimes two). For instance, the impulse waves have 3 motive waves (waves that drive the price up) before a correction. Also, the triple combo corrections and the WXYZ corrections have 3 corrective sub-waves before starting another impulse. Once three of whatever pattern happens, the price is likely to change. XVG's three corrective wedges could signal the end of the corrections.
Wave3
Neo; Short Term CorrectionNeo just completed five sub-waves, and after 5 waves, a correction occurs. The correction usually is between the 0.382 and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
We can open a short position with a tight stop just above the peak and a target at the 0.382 Fib retracement level, which gives us over 1:5 risk to reward ratio. That means, we only have to be right about 1/6 of the time to make this trade profitable.
If we zoom out and look at the bigger picture, we see that Neo is only on intermediate wave 3. It has one more wave to go, and it will likely bring us another all time high. We set our buyback zone according to the Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.382 and 0.618.
ETHUSD: Don't Buy High. Consider Bigger Picture.ETHUSD update: New all time high established at 1225 as price backs off into the mid 1100s. When markets runaway, the best thing to do is evaluate the bigger picture to get a better sense of perspective and risk, not get carried away by euphoria. In this report I am going to highlight the next proportional target as well as relevant support levels.
Elliott Wave offers a way to categorize market movements and provides a framework to help anticipate how the herd is likely to react next. I am always aware of wave counts, but I do not write about them unless they are worth noting in order to avoid confusion. Now is one of those times worth mentioning where this market is in terms of wave count.
At the moment, this market appears to be in a Wave 3 of a broader 5. This price action is typical of a wave 3 since it can never be the shortest wave according to impulse wave rules. This also means the next retrace will be a sub wave 4 and likely unfold in some form of narrow range triangle before breaking out and completing 5 of 5 waves. This serves as a broader road map, and is not an absolute prediction.
The potential support levels for the sub wave 4 can be around the 1000 level (.382 of current bullish swing measured from 640 low) or the 863 to 771 zone (.618 of same bullish swing). These are the levels to evaluate for smaller time frame price reversals that can lead to the next bullish wave which has the proportional target of 1385 (2.618 projection measured from 492 low).
Buying highs is a high risk behavior, while locking in some profit is a best practice, especially in markets that go vertical like this one. IF the current candle closes in this configuration (a bearish pin bar) that warns of further selling and can be the beginning of the sub wave 4 retrace.
In summary, there are always more opportunities in these markets and no need to be emotional about missing out. All markets retrace and offer more opportunities at much more attractive reward/risk ratios. The next significant retrace in this market still offers an attractive buying opportunity for at least one more leg higher before it is reasonable to expect a much broader correction based on the current wave count. The best thing you can do is be patient and keep an eye on the bigger picture because it helps you anticipate the herd and not react to it.
Comments and questions welcome.
COULD BITCOIN BE IN WAVE 3? IF SO HOLD ON TIGHT?BTC IS GROWING STRONG. I SEE THAT THE ABC CORRECTION HAS SEEMED TO BE COMPLETED AND WE ARE NOW LOOKING FOR THE START OF A TREND. WHAT DO YOU THINK? WE COULD BE IN X WAVE SO BE CAREFUL.
NXT progressing through extended wave 3 ?It seems NXT is progressing through an extended wave3 count on the Minor period and wave 1 on the Intermediate period.
Currently price action is inside a massive resistance area, with all EMAs flared whilst price action is well above the 13 'EMA' Ketchup. 'TDI' already shows signs of overbought position with the 'RSI' line already in the '70.0000' area and possibly about to form a sharkfin. I'm expecting the RSI to breach the '80.0000' area to the Wave3 target.
This coin is bullish for me and I'll be holding and adding to my position once wave 4 has been completed.
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DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar.
This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out.
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ETHUSD: Roadmap To 814 Target?ETHUSD update: With 760 being the all time high and no real weakness in sight, it is important to gain a sense of how far can these markets go on the short term in order to decide whether to invest now or not. In this report I will refer to Elliott Wave in order to evaluate the potential reward / risk over the short term (next few weeks/month).
People often ask, "Why do you not always use Elliott Wave in your analysis?". Just because it is not on a chart, does not mean I am not using it. As a price action trader, I am always aware of the wave counts and will only write about them when they are relevant and clear. Otherwise they will confuse people.
In this chart, I am observing the wave counts on a weekly time frame. Why weekly? Because it provides a much clearer perspective of how much further this market can go before the next correction.(Note to new investors: markets do eventually correct).
As far as the current count, it appears this market is in a Wave 5 of a larger Wave 3. According to the basic rules of an impulse wave, wave 3 can never be the shortest wave. Often, wave 3's are large, move fast and are very euphoric. We are seeing this across many of these coins at the moment. Often any news and events that are in line with this trend will drive the price faster, while counter trend or negative news will has less of an effect. The bias is clearly bullish.
Based on the 1.618 extension measured from the Wave 2 low (140), the next proportionate target is the 814 area which provides some insight as far as where this market may find some significant resistance and begin a potential Wave 4 correction (I know no one wants to hear about corrections). The popular view is "Hey 1K around the corner!", which is possible, but these 1.618 extensions combined with the fact that this market is in a 5th wave, highlights the riskiness of taking new long positions at these levels. (Unless you don't mind a couple of hundred points of pain).
IF the market finds resistance in this area and a Wave 4 unfolds, a relevant level to evaluate for support (and possible buying opportunities) the the 518 to mid 400s area. Why? 518 is the .382 of the bullish structure measured from the broader Wave 2 low. This is where buying for the longer term would offer more attractive reward/risk compared to where price is now.
In summary, Elliott Wave serves as a road map, and is NOT an exact forecasting tool. There is NO precision in these markets, especially right now. Buying and holding works great when markets don't correct and go up 30%+ per day which is not realistic and will be temporary. For those who are in from lower levels, and plan to hold as an investment, it never hurts to lock some profit in and hold on to some no matter what happens. There seems to be this blind greed where people consider not locking in profit at the "top" a loss. Selling tops and buying bottoms are lottery tickets and if you are coming out of this market with more money than you entered with, that is a win which will not be appreciated until reality sets in. When markets are extreme as these are right now, it always helps to get perspective from a very large time frame like a weekly. Applying waves counts in this context does not offer exact buy/sell signals but instead provides a framework and levels that illustrate where the reward/risk is more attractive for entering longer term positions. No matter how you slice it, these markets are risky. The greater the risk the greater potential reward, you just have to be aware of the broader probabilities. Buying highs works at the moment, but in the long run is an ineffective behavior. The bad habits that are being created in this environment will be opportunities for the skilled traders when the correction comes. This cycle repeats itself over and over and has since the beginning of financial markets, and is the reason why TA has merit for those who know how to use it properly.
Questions and comments welcome.
VTC Vertcoin is going vertical !It seems that Vertcoin is in a major bullish trend and based on my wave count, is currently in a Minor period Wave3 which should be confirmed at the breakout of structure marked on the chart. All EMAs are now upwards pointing, TDI shows continued upwards trend (Weekly Chart) yet to form a sharkfin, but still outside of the outer bands. The Sharkfin should play out at the end of the wave3 move with the wave4 correction, to then continue LONG for the wave5. In my opinion, this is a great opportunity to buy a great coin, which will no doubt be one of the big earners. Once breakout occurs of structure, i will be purchasing this coin and hold long-term.
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DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar.
This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out.
.....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP! :::::.....
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Bitcoin Gold Ready for Liftoff; Long to 580BTG has been downtrending for quite a while now and has completed its 3-3-5 flat ABC correction. The correction also formed a bullish falling wedge, accompanied by falling volume indicating falling selling pressure.
We had a very strong bounce on Dec 7 of the support line of the falling wedge, possibly setting up for wave 3. According to Elliott Wave rules, wave 3 is never the shortest and often the longest. That means we will get a minimal target of $480 with a 1 to 1 Extension. That is a whooping 90% gain! Some more aggressive targets include the 1.272 and the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension, which are $550 and $650, which will more than double your money.
Of course, there is a still the possibility that we haven't finished corrections yet. In that case, we would have another 2 bounces in the falling wedge and form an ABCDE correction. We get a short term conservative target of $265 instead. The long-term targets would still remain similar, only dropping by $20 (which gives us $460, $530, and $630).
ETH Long from 420 to 520; Just finished ABC Corrections.We just finished an ABC correction for wave 2. Wave A, if you zoom in, shows a very clear 12345 impulse.
i.imgur.com
Wave B is an ABCDE rising wedge, which I mistaken for a 12345 leading diagonal in a previous post. Wave C is another 12345 impulse, completing the 5-3-5 zigzag.
Wave C also happen end at a 1 to 1 Fibonacci Extension from wave A, creating a point for reversal. In addition, on the RSI, we see a bullish falling wedge just ready to break out.
If we use our Fibonacci Extension of the the big wave 1 (black wave), we get targets of 520 and 580 for a 1 to 1 and 1.618, respectively. Remember, wave 3 is never the shortest and usually the longest.
XLM/BTC The coveted Wave 3 is already here. still lots to go.XLM has officially bottom and everything is aligning for take off.
-50 MA crossed 100 MA on daily recently
-RSI, MACD all bullish on all mid to long time frames
-weekly bull MACD cross occurred 1-2 weeks ago, all set for multi week/month uptrend
And the 2 things that hold XLM back
-the 50 day MA crossing the 200 day MA
-1k satoshi price level
Black line trailing down is 200 MA
red line moving up is 50 MA
purple is 100 MA
currently ascending triangle, if it can hover between 850-1000 satoshis, this should happen within 1 week or 2. There is room for this to consolidate further in 600-800 satoshi range, this could take another month.
but rest assured, when the last of these indicators occur, all bets are off.
First Wave was 125 satoshis to 450 satoshis
bottom at 250 satoshi.
trend based fib extension shows incredible levels. remember wave 3 must be longer than wave 1. and there is so much more backing this wave 3...
i think 1.618 and 2.618 extensions make for likely targets 3-6 months from now. and with the collapse of btc to "normal" price around $5-6k, 4.236 fib extension makes sense as well.
We have IBM blockchain specialists posting in the stellar reddit and barely able to keep their excitement for what is coming. think about that.
Bitcoin - Time to be fearfulThe buying frenzy in Bitcoin, just continues to push it higher and higher. There is no time to correct properly. The rally is now close to being vertical, which isn't a good thing.
I was look for this rally to may extend to 10,768 and here we are. However, the extreme buying frenzy could push Bitcoin into the 11,073 - 11,627 area, but it's time to become fearful and take a contrarian approach.
Yesterday the Danish news ran a story about a mom, that had bought Bitcoin from her son's savings account. I'm not saying it's not a good investment, but that is a sign to me, to become very fearful.
A break below minor support at 9,848 will indicate that wave (3) has peaked and wave (4) towards at least 6,700 is developing.
As wave (2) was a deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a time-consuming and complex sideways correction in wave (4).
Tighten up your stops!
Bitcoin - The final swings of wave (3) developingBitcoin has seen a phenomenal rally in wave (3). Only a year ago it traded near 755 against the USD and now it hovers near 8,100. I'm still looking for a little more upside closer to 9,150, but the best part of the rally in wave (3) is now behind us.
As wave (2) was a simple, but deep zig-zag correction, we should expected wave (4) to be a complex structure in the form of a flat or a triangle consolidation and it should be relatively shallow compared to wave (2). But a relatively shallow correction of 38.2% of wave (3), will still mean a decline close to 5,800.
Facebook - Peak expected near 187.17Facebook has seen an amazing rally since the September 2012 low at 17.55. This wave rally should be close to completion - Ideally near 187.17 for a correction in wave . As wave was a simple and deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a complex and shallow correction in wave . The ideal target for this wave correction is seen in the 114.77 - 115.93 area.
The corrective structure of wave should be either a flat or a triangle consolidation. If the corrective structure proves to be a triangle, then the low will be seen early (likely in the A-wave down).
Short-term a break below minor support at 168.89 will be a good indication that Facebook has peaked in wave and wave is developing. So tighten up your stops and don't fall in love with Facebook at these levels.
Bitcoin - Continues to accelerate towards the 7,800 targetBitcoin continues to accelerate higher, with only minor corrective declines on the way (also seen in the US indices). The next possible upside target for wave 5 and (3) is seen near 7,800.
That said, we should be aware of a possible extension closer to 9,150 or even towards 10,783.
4hr Short USDCAD Possible Wave 3 We have had a abcd corrective wave complete.
I'm seeing a possible change to catch wave 3 to the downside. USDCAD has been very bearish that mixed the downward movement on the DXY means I still have a very bearish bias
USD/JPY - Correction in wave 2 completed at 107.30USD/JPY has been correcting in wave 2 since the 118.67 high in mid-December 2016. This wave 2 correction completed at 107.30, just above the 61.8% corrective target at 106.85.
Wave 3 higher is now developing and should continue to higher towards at least 126.41 and more likely extend higher to the 161.8% extension-target of wave 1, which is seen at 138.23. Third waves is normally the strongest waves and tend to extend. As Pretcher says " Third waves are wonders to behold ".
Short-term, I'm looking for a minor correction into the 108.72 - 109.17 area from where the next impulsive rally higher is expected. At no point can a break below 107.30 be accepted under this count .
GBP/JPY - Is breaking the long-term resistance-lineGBP/JPY is now breaking the long-term resistance-line near 144.10. A break above this resistance-line confirms continuation higher towards 147.90 and above here confirms a rally to at least 161.03.
LTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Bullish Momentum And New Target.LTCUSD Update: The 70 to 73 area target has been taken out upon new all time highs. Wave 3 of 5 continues with the 84 level as the next proportional target, but don't forget, as price goes higher, risk goes higher also.
This market along with a few others like ETH and BTC are in a relentless uptrend that is obvious. What you do not want to get caught in is the euphoria surrounding these moves. There will be all kinds of overly optimistic reports saying that these markets are going up forever, with all kinds of outrageous targets. When this sentiment reaches extreme, that is usually a sign of a top. That goes with the saying, the crowd is always wrong at tops and bottoms so I am certainly a contrarian at these levels.
Even though I will not get caught up in the hype and not buy into highs, this market is worth evaluating for proportional targets and support levels that would offer attractive buying opportunities IF price revisits them in the near future. The market will eventually retrace, all markets do, and when that scenario unfolds, I want to be prepared with a solid plan instead of reacting like the market crowd. As the market rises, the potential levels that would serve as reference points to look for entries will also adjust proportionally.
At this moment 65 is the .382 of the current bullish swing and the 55 area is the .618. These are the levels that I would look for if the market retraces off these highs. If price can revisit these levels, that is when I would be looking for bullish reversal patterns for a risk assessment and entry. Targets, just like support levels are proportional to the current price structure and the 84 area (which is the 3.618 extension of the subwave 1) is the next target and may be reached before a significant retracement materializes.
The other perspective to consider is Elliott Wave. This is a Wave 3 of 5 that shows no signs of bearish momentum or weakness at the moment. If I was long, I would be selling some into this strength, raising the stop and holding on to a small portion of the position to see how price behaves around the 84 target area. The only thing is there are 5 subwaves that are complete which forces me to sit out and wait for the Wave 4 correction. Waiting out while the market appears to be going straight up is probably one of the most challenging situations we face because of the internal struggle of not wanting to miss out. The solution is stop focusing on the profit, and instead focus on the risk. Buying highs may work once or twice, but as some of you know, eventually you will get hammered and if you don't believe me, it's okay because the market teaches this lesson often.
In summary, this market is clearly strong with no signs of pull back or weakness at the moment. Great if you are in, but more risky if you are out wanting to get in. Price may rise to the 84 target area before showing any possibilities of a retrace, but in my opinion, as price rises, risk rises as well. The best I can do is prepare myself for when the market retraces by having specific levels to anticipate, and entry criteria for those levels. The current wave count also shows 5 complete subwaves which I interpret as an increased chance for pull back, it is just a matter of waiting it out. And if it goes dramatically higher, I simply adjust my levels and continue to wait. Remember successful speculation in any market is not about being right, it is about stacking probabilities because that is all we can control. Everything else is up to the market.
Comments and questions welcome.
LTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Breakout But Lookout.LTCUSD Update: Bullish breakout confirms strength and opens the door to the proportional target zone of the 70 to 74 area, while new support levels provide attractive reference points to buy.
This market has been a mystery to me because while BTC and ETH were making impressive moves, this market stayed quiet. That kind of behavior is always suspect because often it is a sign of relative weakness, but these coins obviously cannot be compared that way. As I have written about when comparing ETH and BTC, these markets emulate more of a sector rotation behavior meaning order flow is selective and favors one market over another as opposed to follow the leader where one market goes and the smaller ones follow.
So now this market has taken the spot light for whatever reason. And the new high is drawing attention. The question is what to do now if you are not in it? Don't let the fear of missing out distract you here. Risk is something we can control and profit is the outcome of effective risk management.
When a market makes a sudden move that seems dramatic, the first thing I do is zoom out and look at the bigger picture. Based on the most recent upswing, there is a .382 support at the 53 level, and
.618 support zone from the 49 to 46 levels. Since these are proportional to the larger magnitude price moves, they are significant moving forward, especially when observed through Elliott Wave.
In terms of wave counts, the current high places this market in a subdegree Wave 3 of a larger 5. Also 5 subwaves can be counted within this 3, which means there is more of a chance that it is complete. It also means this is a higher risk area to buy, for those who are struggling with the fear of missing out. Keep in mind, Elliott Wave helps to provide a process to weigh probabilities, and is not an absolute prediction. It is possible that the market continues without much pull back, it is just that the current count does not favor such an outcome.
After a Wave 3 completion, comes the Wave 4 retrace which as we all experienced with ETH, can be tough to sit through. Based on the current price structure, the most opportune level for Wave 4 to bottom is the 53 support because it would not overlap Wave 1. That is the first level to look for bullish reversals and eventual development of subwave 5 of 5 which can take this market to the 70 to 74 area (1.618 and 1.0 extensions of previous Wave 1s).
If the 53 support is broken, then the 49 to 46 area is next to watch for, but a retrace to this area will alter the wave count and put this market back into the consolidation category.
I like this market because it is low priced and generally stable, just a little too slow at times. My plan is to wait for a retest of the 53 area and look for reversal patterns to enter a position that carries low risk. If this market is going to be strong in the long run, it will provide plenty of opportunities to get involved at good prices. I have no problem waiting.
Comments and questions welcome.
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: 345 Target Near. Stop Break Even.ETHUSD Update: 315 resistance breaks and subdegreee Wave 3 is in play just as I wrote about in my previous report. For those of you who go long in the 280s and 90s, 345 is my first target and 374 is my second target.
Clearly a bullish catalyst has sparked the rally, at this point I do not even know what the catalyst is, I can just tell by the vertical nature of this price action. BTC is stagnant which is proving that these markets are competing for order flow and money rotates in and out of them on a selective basis compared to the"follow the leader" relationship I was looking to identify in previous reports.
Now it's about managing the trade. 345 is my first target which I will sell half of my position. The 350 resistance is a target I have been talking about for a number of reports and I stick to my plan. The other half of the position I will let ride and look to sell 25% of it at the 374 level which is the upper portion of the resistance zone. And if that target is reached, then I will let my small portion ride until I determine my next target. The upcoming resistance zone is proportional to the .618 of the previous broad bearish swing.
At the same time, I am now adjusting my stop to break even so that this trade no longer carries any risk. It is possible to give back profit, but that is not loss, that is profit. So my stop is now adjusted to 295.
Also the 306 to 315 area which served as such a tough resistance is now a support level based on inversion. In terms of proportion, a retrace from current levels should not overlap this price area. Something to keep in mind if a minor retrace unfolds from here.
As I mentioned in my previous report, Wave 3's are the ones that wow the market. And they are never the shortest wave in terms of the Elliott Wave rules. Once this wave completes, the next retrace will offer one more buying opportunity to complete the 5th wave of the larger degree Wave 5. I will be able to evaluate targets and risk once the new subdegree 4 is in place.
In summary, this market is in a subdegree Wave 3 which is no surprise and has finally stolen the order flow spot light. I expect my first target of 345 to be reached today and if 350 breaks, the 380 area is likely to be reached in the next day or so as well. My stop has been moved to breakeven which means my trade carries no risk it's all about management from here. Price action analysis. It works.
I would like to thank the Tradingview community for your support and appreciation, as of yesterday I have reached over 1k followers.
Questions and comments welcome.
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: One More Retrace? Then?ETHUSD Update: Market structure and wave count support the argument that this market is poised to reach the 350 resistance soon. It is a matter of catalyst.
First the 297 swing high needs to be broken, followed by the 315 resistance. The 315 break will signal that the next leg up is in play which can take this market to the 350 area that I have been writing about in previous reports.
It appears there is a rotation of order flow in these markets. One minute its BTC, then a bunch of newer coins, then BCH. It is tough to pinpoint where order flow will appear next. We must remember that this market as a whole, even though it has a enormous capitalization, has a very small population of traders and investors compared to the traditional financial markets. There are also other factors in play such as many alt coins trading against BTC or ETH instead of the USD which makes things much more complicated when it comes to measuring the relative strength relationship. A few months ago, BTC went up, and the alt coins went up also. Now BTC goes up and pulls back a few hundred points, and ETH is not really sensitive to it at all.
In terms of wave count, this market is in a very high potential position. I have been writing about being in a larger degree Wave 5. Within that wave, subdegree Wave 2 has established a bottom in the low 280s. Which means we are most likely in a subdegree Wave 3. Wave 3's are usually the ones that wow the world because of their magnitude (See IOT/USD for a recent example). A break above the 315 resistance will signal that the subdegree Wave 3 is in play and can lead this market to the 350 resistance relatively quickly.
It is also possible for price to retrace once more into the mid 280s before this new up leg begins. If this retrace occurs followed by a bullish reversal pattern, I would see this as another buying opportunity with attractive risk/reward. With a stop in the low 270s, and a target at 340, reward to risk is more than 3:1.
As price action traders, we must always be flexible and understand that anything can happen. Many less experienced participants still view technical analysis as predictions which is a mistake. This is not a weather forecast. We are gathering information about historical order flow and comparing it to get an idea of what can happen next. Charts are records of human emotion expressed as a series of price points and provide valuable clues if you know what to look for.
If a bearish news catalyst were to surprise the market, chart analysis will not be able to anticipate such an event. This is why I pay very close attention to the 279 and 263 supports. If price breaks below, especially 263, that would signal a broader consolidation is more likely to follow.
In summary, this market is in a position to realize a move up into the 350 resistance area it is just a matter of catalyst. Wave counts point to a subdegree Wave 3 which are known for large moves in terms of proportion. One more retrace into the 280s can offer another chance to buy at an attractive risk reward, but outside of that, it's just watch and wait. As long as price stays above 263, it is just a matter of stealing "the order flow spotlight" to get things moving.
Questions and comments welcome.
