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Wave4

USDCHF long, wave 4.I believe we are forming an Elliot wave and will be looking for buys on USDCHF at around 0.9700. I will be placing an order and expecting a snipe trade straight into profit. If I was to be more conservative I would wait for a bullish candle on 4H. My analysis predicts we will have a corrective wave from 0.9700 to my highlighted zone between 0.5 and 0.618 fib retracements. Trade will look something like this: USDCHF BUY LIMIT @ 0.9700 SL @ 0.9640 (60) TP1 @ 0.9860 (160) TP2 @ 0.9900 (200)
Long
by andrewlickley
Correction on the way!It's been 56 days of upwards movement, and I know things cannot go up indefinitely. Getting a satisfying wave count has been difficult, but I'm comfortable with the one you can see here, and I will put my money where my mouth is! As wave 2 was mild, wave 4 will be strong, but most importantly, wave 3 was over extended therefore wave 5 won't have that much thrust behind. I'll be ready to ride it as I'm ready for an adverse scenario. Remember this: it's not about you and it's not about being right. It's about being prepared ;)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by barrbudo
BITCOIN- Wave 4 Targets and path variations(7200, 6800, 6450)!Can safely say that bitcoin completed Wave 3 (4.62 extension-8400), consequently based on the RSI divergence on 4 hours, we can currently expect a Wave 4. 2 variations for Wave 4 based on Elliott wave consolidation: 7200 (0.236 consolidation level) and 6450 (0.382). Personally I am more inclined towards 7200. Additional structural support levels are 7450 and 6700-6800. This consolidation could take about 1-3 days. So during the weekend and based on volume, we can expect a slow buildup for wave 5. >>If you liked this take on bitcoin, I would really appreciate a thumbs up or follow up for more.>> It seems that especially this summer will be extremely volatile for all markets. There will be plenty of detailed analysis following up . P.S. Do comment your agreeing TA or one with a difference of opinion!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
2
SF BTC LOOKING FOR A BOTTOM FOR WAVE 4 (6650-6500)On it's way to C(6650). This support might hold, in which case we might have a breakout on D. That will start the wave 5. Other potential supports for BTC are 6500 and 6430. If it doesn't hold above these supports tomorrow, by extension this will lead up to 5950. However by the current structure. This is highly unlikely. It's quite an obvious analysis at this point, it's just a short update. The long time frame analysis is in the Related ideas. >>If you liked this Elliott wave take on bitcoin , give it a thumbs up and follow for more. It seems that the summer will be extremely volatile for all markets. There will be plenty of detailed analysis following up .>>
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
4
BTC ... could it be??Hello everyone. Following the Elliott wave count, I am still expecting one more drop (sub-wave 5 of wave C, the capitulation wave). This could also be considered the spring test in Wickhoff Theory (I'm not an expert, but communicate with one that is). It's clear, there are plenty that are expecting a new bottom, and it is also clear the market has gone (bullish) mad with just a $700 rise! We must consider this sentiment. These feelings are forces to be reckoned with, and so neither the bull or the bear will just sit back and allow the other to win. What I'm trying to say is that it's not going to be easy for the bears to get this much lower, as in sub $2900. It's not impossible, and that's easily proven by how deep they were able to take it back in November from $6k to $3k, cutting through all support like nothing. But now we are in a new layer of trader ... as we dig deeper into the price, we deal with stronger Hodlers, people who have dealt with BTC for over one year or longer. They were either smart enough to not get burned in the bear market (the 20%) or they have lost almost everything and don't really care at this stage if it goes down further, they are committed to holding (most of the 80%?). So, I print this potential pattern ... let's see if this triangle wave unfolds. This would be sub-wave 4 ... and then a final sub-wave 5 down to 29XX?? ... or will the bulls hold the line at 31XX ... or will the bears break their spirit and take it to 1300 - 1800 territory? Right now, if I was forced to choose, I'd say 29XX to 31XX will be held. That will be a fairly bullish sign for me and then it would likely only be a matter of time before we (slowly) start our new bull run. Let's analyze this triangle ... it seems we have topped out now. Bears will likely take advantage of that red candle on the daily. Finex longs have closed out drastically, which means the market generally thinks it's the top ... however, there's another point there ... the bears won't be able to stop hunt much, because longs have closed out in droves. I print wave D hitting the bottom of the ichi cloud and finding support. Then wave E tops out about where the ichi cloud twists on March 18th ... the ichi twist has almost always predicted a top or a bottom. The last one a few days back, proved to be a local bottom before we had that nice pump up to $4k. Let's see how this plays out. Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome. Do not use this information for trading, investment, or financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
2
Herbalife, HLF, Elliott Wave Fractal Comparison. Possible wave 4"Beautiful Pictures from the Gallery of Phinance", Robert R Prechter Jr. Copyright 2003 Robert R Prechter Jr. Pages 18 & 19 The drawings I've added to this chart are directly pulled from page 19 of the book mentioned. The original charts referenced are the DJIA from 8/24/1921 to 09/03/1929, and the second chart in the comparison is the DJIA from 12/06/1974 to 01/14/2000. The similarities are many. The reason why I took interest in this chart is because I noticed a huge boom in social media marketing by Herbalife distributors, pushing their products and heavily recruiting new customers and new distributors. The chart immediately reminded me of the Elliott Wave Fractal so I decided to compare. It looks good and I am assuming a long to somewhere near the $80 - $85 range. I don't want to get too specific but I expect the final waves (4 & 5) to end sometime near the end of 2019, roughly 12 months from now.
NYSE:HLFLong
by RickSmash
1
Facebook From HereFacebook is taking a dive after hours, but I believe this is yet another opportunity to buy the dip. If we close above the previous 2018 lows for the rest of this month, expect FB is entering a wave 4. It will likely involve a swift "fade" higher, perhaps to 195-200, a hard rejection, and a slow, arduous battle for control between buyers and sellers for the rest of the year, perhaps producing some type of falling wedge or triangle pattern on the longer timeframe charts. IF Facebook continues to hold above 150, we will eventually see some sort of reversal signal (Double bottom or inverse head and shoulders for instance), signaling to traders that it is "time to buy" again. I would expect this signal to occur around the low 160's. The next bullish move should be fast and furious and could eventually result in new ATH's, or at least a test of previous highs. However, if at any point FB takes out the previous 2018 lows, we can assume we have finished a wave 5 and should expect another LOWER low after the initial fade higher. while the current dip is buyable either way for short-term traders, longer-term investors should take heed and sell FB on any bounce near 185-195 if given the opportunity if this lower low should occur anytime soon, as the next phase would be expected to include a C correction or even a complete trend change where the lower 130's are likely to be tested. While I don't anticipate this to occur before breaching 200 once again as long as 150 holds, be on close watch for that lower-low to signal whether we are entering a longer wave 4 or a faster, more volatile corrective phase.
NASDAQ:METALong
by Red_Ben
BTC ... does Renko hold the key to unlocking the wave count?Hello everyone. So there's been much deliberation over the wave count. Certainly the drop from 10k has had a few minor bounces, and it is hard to distinguish what is really completion of a wave ... which obviously impacts the wave count. So this morning I switch to Renko bars ... looks clear as a sunny day to me. Up to now, over the past 2 days, I've been wondering if we are forming a wave 4 now ... but I don't like what I see ... we are stuck range bound, no real recovery (I expected a bounce to around 7800 mark. The weekend hasn't provided any major support for the bulls, maybe a little rest (equally for bears!). Renko makes it clear ... we are technically still in wave 3, no confirmation of wave 4. Now, it could be a start of wave 4 ... but we have NO confirmation. That means, it's wave 3 until we have confirmation! So what can happen? Let's say Asia markets open up on Monday and they rally it up, thinking we have a temporary bottom .... then, we can welcome wave 4. But let's say the see weakness, and after closing shorts at 72XX, they decide 7600 is a great place to open shorts again ... continuation of wave 3, and the target is there, the bottom of the triangle at around 69XX. That would mean we should still form wave 4 up and another wave 5 down!! So we could have an extended wave E, past the bottom of the triangle, to do a double bottom test of 6425 (Bitfinex). So, there you go ... Monday morning in Asia ... watch it closely. Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome. Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
11
BTC WAVE E ... consumed by fire, give rise to the Pheonix!Hello guys. So here's an update on my idea ... some polishing up done, with the new data, but the concept still remains the same. For those looking for a summary only. - we are likely forming wave E of a triangle pattern (see red wave) - we are likely in an impulse wave, where wave 3 ends and wave 4 starts (see purple wave). - the purple line is my highest probability, but the two black lines are other possibilities. So likely bottom is 6.9k (after a rise and then fall again), but 6.5k, 6k and 5.4k are also possibilities (the paths are shown in the black lines). - overall I see after this bottom, a nice bull market ... and look forward to the second half of 2018! OK so here is a more detailed explanation: We hit 7270, and came within 380 points of the triangle bottom. Not much left to go. But it is clear, two things are happening ... likely it's mostly shorts closing their positions (buying back bitcoin), and perhaps a bit of FOMO starting (people jumping in long guessing it's the bottom). The red wave E shown in my chart will likely be made up of an impulse wave (shown in purple). After reassessing the wave, I believe we are due for a wave 4 (UP) soon, before a final wave 5 down. That coincides with the bounces we are seeing (from 7270 to 7532 so far). But still not enough to convince me we are in wave 4 ... I look for breaking the current channel we are in, and the upper parallel is currently sitting in the 7600 territory (so I want to see it above that to confirm we are in a new wave up). Wave 4 will obviously take us higher, and my rough estimate at this stage is 7800 - 8100, with the most likely target actually being the higher end of this range. I'll know better once we've cross 7600 to see how much steam the bulls have. I strongly believe because we are only 380 points from the triangle bottom, the bears want to test that. If that's correct, a great play would be to short from the top of wave 4, and then close profits when the final wave 5 gets close to the triangle bottom, then look to long when wave 5 is close to finish (perhaps ladder in your buys at key levels). Wave E's (red wave) can extend past the triangle bottom (would be a great fake out ... and one last squeeze of longs looking to get in at triangle bottom). So I've shown a black line (one on the right) which extends to test the previous bottoms (6.4k/6.5k territory), before a bounce up. Please note, as I indicated we do not have solid confirmation that wave 4 has started. This could easily turn south again and wave 3 continues. That is the black line I've drawn on the left. This would eventually lead to wave 4 and then a wave 5 could take us down much further, where I have a possible bounce at 6k and even 5.4k is a possibility for me in this scenario. I do believe this triangle is a large continuation pattern. After a nice impulse up to 20k ... we break up out of this triangle once we complete WAVE E and to new highs. I am look forward to the second half of this year. Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome. Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
Oh the bliss, what a disguise. BTC will you go down or rise?Well, well, well .... just as I gave up on wave 4, here we are. At this point we've reached the all time high trend line and we are hitting a key Fib. Are we all wrong (oh yes, many have changed their tunes now after calling a 4k, 3k, 2k, 1k bottom). Wall street always wins, remember that. They want your money, so they do what's worst for you. Short you say, stay in cash you say? That must have hurt. I'm not trying to be funny guys, but we need to wake up. So where will it go now, as the BTC world turns to bullish euphoria? What will wall street do. It could go up, yes ... but at some point it will drop. The question is when. I don't know that, and it is clear most traders don't either. All I can say, according to the past, is what I think is key to determine sentiment and where I think it can go. At this stage, if we have topped out on wave 4 now, and EW theory holds true (although we already broke some principles), then the bottom in the mid term is estimated to be as low as 5.4k. It can bounce at 6k too! Anyhow, too many times I've been hypnotized by all the green, and then caught in a blood bath the next day. Not today, I'm starting to cash out and lock in my profits. Maybe I'm wrong ... but I'm very confident about one thing ... wall street always win. I'll be ready, either way they take it! Remember only a fool relies on one outcome. Do not use this for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
2
EURUSD - Bull Run to Continue Following Completion of Wave 4I'm eyeing wave 4 to end around 1.16570 and run 1.0 of wave 1 = 1.20650; but may also be 2.0 of wave 1 = 1.24801. A length of 2.0 also has confluence of intersecting with channel boundaries in symmetrical days (30) as Wave 1. Rues: IF Price Action = 1.16570 AND there is a major reversal pattern or candle on 1-day or 4-hour chart AND there is some major fundamental news favoring EUR or disfavoring USD, THEN use buy stop when trend line breaks to confirm trend (~1.16799) setting TP1: 1.20180, setting TP 2: 1.24952 Good luck!
Long
by milljohner
BTCUSD: Impulse Still Intact? Watch For Break Of 10256.BTCUSD update: Price action is still being lead by bearish momentum, but the range of the most recent candles are tightening. Even though this may not appear as anything unusual, because of where it is occurring, we can get an idea of what is likely to happen next. In terms of the wave count, and impulse structure, the Wave 1 high was 9074, and so far the current Wave 4 low is 9280 which means no over lap. As long as Wave 4 does not go into the area of Wave 1, the transition to Wave 5 is still very reasonable, especially since price is not much lower than the 9604 support level (.382 of recent bullish structure). Buying into this type of price action in anticipation of the bullish reversal is aggressive, especially since there are no confirmations of momentum changing, only a tightening range which just acts as a heads up. The more conservative play is to wait for a decisive break and close above 10256 minor resistance level (.382 of current bearish swing). This level adjusts as price action pushes lows and serves as a gauge to determine when momentum is much more favorable for longs. IF the current bearish momentum persists, and price pushes into the Wave 1 area, the impulse wave will be negated and I will view this market as being within a broader consolidation, which is not to be mistaken for a bearish condition. As long as price does not push new lows (below 6K) I will be looking for reversal patterns at the predetermined support levels to add to my long. The consolidation premise helps me to adjust my near term profit targets lower to the 11Ks which keeps my expectations within the boundaries of the market structure instead of optimistic targets based on feelings. In the broader consolidation scenario, I want to see how price behaves within the 8171 to 7239 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). This is a predetermined support that over laps the 8171 to 4983 major support zone that is the .618 area relative to the entire bullish structure of this market. In range bound markets, broader supports AND resistances tend to hold and I will look to capitalize on that if it unfolds this way. This price action is NOT enough to change my over all outlook to bearish. In summary, price is still in a good position to form a higher low and rally to the 13Ks. Whether you are position trading or swing trading, you must always be aware of where price is on the road map and what to anticipate if the condition changes. Less experienced traders get stuck on a "one scenario" idea, and get bent out of shape when the market does not comply. This focus on being "right" is irrelevant. Timing any financial market requires that we make decisions and take risks in the face of limited information. The only way to thrive in this type of environment is by learning to accept new information and adjust to it which forces us to accept that the market is always "right". The best we can do is measure, evaluate, compare and then decide if the market is in line with our criteria, enough to justify taking a risk, or not. This is why it is so important to follow your OWN criteria and use outside analysis to supplement your own, not to replace it. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
BTCUSD: Is 9600 Support Low Of Next Swing? BTCUSD update: Since the bearish pin bar off of the 11700 area price, has been retracing and has tested the 9600 level to produce a spinning top formation. This can be the beginning of the next bullish leg which can test the 11700 peak or higher. In order to justify a long position, I would wait for particular conditions to unfold first. Maybe now you know why I locked in 15% of my position off the 11700 peak. I did not know for sure that price was going to retrace back to the 9600 area, but I saw the signs of selling, and recognized the potential. Now that price is finding support at this level (.382 of recent bullish swing), is this the time to start buying or adding back to my position trade? It is too early to tell. A spinning top formation is not a reversal candle. It just indicates a potential change. On top of that, the candle has not closed yet which means it can still close bearish. There are many different formations that can occur at this location that can prompt for a new position, but each formation carries its own degree of risk. For example, a spinning top close followed by the break of its high is a bullish trigger, but not the most reliable, which doesn't mean it won't work. Taking a trade like that all depends on your risk profile. Also this trigger would offer an attractive swing trade opportunity since risk can be quantified by the 9600 level. The short term target would be around the 11500 area which puts reward/risk at around 4:1 (assuming a 10K area entry). A more conservative plan is to wait for a higher low formation, and/or close above the 10429 level (.382 of current bearish swing). By waiting, you get less attractive prices, but you are entering with momentum clearly in your favor. This is more appropriate for my position trade since I plan to add about 30% more. The target for this trade is the mid 13Ks to 14K area since it is looking to capitalize on the broader move. One advantage to having the position trade is even if there is no clear entry, and I never add, I am still long and benefiting from any bullish momentum that materializes. I am also willing to take the risks associated with this type of position as well. By the way, I get a lot of requests to include wave counts on my charts. I am always aware of relevant counts, but show them on my chart when they are clear and offer insight rather than confusion. This situation offers that type of clarity with the current low fitting into a minor Wave 4 bottom. Which means this count is now inline with the broader bullish premise behind this market. This type of impulse wave, especially when the market is in a Wave 4, is the simplest and most effective way to use Elliott Wave in my opinion. Since 3 waves must be in place and adhere to the impulse wave rules, Wave 4 becomes the easiest wave to anticipate. In summary, it is important to keep in mind that just because this market is showing the possible beginnings of the next bullish leg, it does not guarantee there will be follow through. IF this candle closes bearish (it can happen), especially below the 9600 level, the next possibility is a retest of the 8171 to 7239 minor support zone (.618 of recent bullish swing) which overlaps the broad support zone that I have been writing about for weeks. If price has trouble pushing the minor 10429 level, the bearish scenario becomes more likely. In this situation, I will wait for the lower supports to be reached and then look for broader reversal formations to add to my position. I am holding this trade for a broader move and willing to take the associated risks. I like to think of this as managing and building inventory until peak season, and this strategy will work as long as my long term premise holds true. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26