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Wave4

ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Head And Shoulders Reversal Sign?ETHUSD Update: Head and shoulders formation appearing under the 306 resistance. Is this a sign of a reversal? How does the BTC pullback factor in? I will address these questions. Also the magnitude of this consolidation has prompted me to reevaluate my wave count. First is the head and shoulders which most of you know is a bearish reversal chart formation. Yes it is a bearish sign, but as I have mentioned in other reports, I do not give much weight to smaller degree formations in the face of broad bullish trends. As bearish as this may look, no supports have been taken out yet. This helps me not to short strong markets, and I learned this lesson the hard way, by shorting strong markets that would suck me in with bearish chart patterns. If you are long, just remember the supports and the BTC relationship will be a better guide in my opinion. The support levels that are still in play are the 279 and the 263 levels. I have written about these extensively in previous reports. If 263 breaks, it will signal a larger consolidation is in play rather than a broader bearish trend and will open the door to the 230 support area. IF this market were to break 208, that would put the broader trend in question. Now about the wave count. Some people have asked me about how I counted the current bullish wave and I explained my reasoning behind my Wave 3 extension, but as it turns out, the extension appears to be a subwave 5 of a larger 3. Which means we are in a larger degree Wave 4. Even though my original count was slightly different, it did not change the anticipated direction, only the expected magnitude of the current Wave 4. And that is why I do not get caught up in exact wave counts. When the market prompts me to adjust, then I adjust. There were some traders who picked up on this current wave count before the market made it obvious, thank you to the people who pointed this out. The larger degree Wave 4 puts the 263 support level into perspective. A bullish reversal off of that level would be a convenient spot for the larger degree Wave 5 to begin. The larger Wave 5 can take this market up into the 350 to 380 area and that is going to be my target. Risk will have to be determined once this market shows some price stability. This takes me to the BTC relationship since there is a lot of varying opinions on this. BTC has been retracing to a larger extent, and as expected, this market is following. Now some may be watching these currencies against BTC as a pair, and sure if BTC is declining at a faster rate, the price on that chart will go up. I am not watching those, I am watching against the US dollar. Why? Because that is my base currency which means that we cannot forget to consider the strength and weakness of the USD. The dollar has been weak, but if you look at recent activity, it is in the process of retracing back up which should exert more pressure on the BTC pullback. All the markets that have been relatively weak against BTC as it pushed highs are now pulling back significantly, like LTC and XRP. My point here is it's more than just a BTC/altcoin relationship. It's more like BTC/Altcoin/Fiat relationship. Something to keep in mind. In summary, this market is in a larger degree Wave 4 which in my opinion is the most predictable wave. There is room for one more leg up (Wave 5) which can push prices up into the 350 to 380 area. I am not predicting this event, instead I am gathering clues that support the likelihood of this scenario. 263 Is the key support I am watching for a bullish reversal along with price stability in BTC and weakness returning to the dollar. If it sounds confusing, remember keep it simple and evaluate one market, I just refer to others for clues. When this market heads back up, signals will present themselves. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels:Triangle Breakout? Where's Volume?ETHUSD Update: Triangle unfolds as BTC and other alt coins make higher highs. The fact that price is not breaking below the 279 support is a sign of strength BUT this lack of participation is concerning. The 306 resistance zone (.618 of bearish swing) seems to have muted the bulls that were pushing this market higher. As a result, a symmetrical triangle has formed which is not unusual for a wave 4 (mentioned in previous report) . These triangles are typically continuation patterns and a breakout to the upside should take this market into the higher part of the resistance zone around the 350s. Somewhere in the 350 to 380 area is where I anticipate the subwave 5 to complete which would also complete the larger degree Wave 3. My wave count puts the short term target near the upper resistance zone or possibly in the low 400s. Once the broader Wave 3 has completed 5 waves, a larger degree Wave 4 will likely follow. These are the kind of waves the scare everyone one out (Like the one that took this market to 136 low three weeks ago, remember?). I will get more into that when the market provides the appropriate clues. As of now, we still have upside potential and the event to watch for is the 310 break out to the upside. The first area I would consider for a stop is the 290 level which is in the lower range of the triangle. The risk is 30 points which is reasonable considering the first target is at least 350. RR is slightly higher than 1:1. This kind of breakout with increasing volume is also a welcome sign and should give this market the umph it needs to reach the new highs. As I mentioned earlier. this lack of participation (and volume) is a concern because BTC and other alt coins are pushing new highs and this market should be following. In the stock market, when a sector rallies, all the stocks in the sector usually get a boost, and ones that do not follow are usually considered weak. As soon as the sector begins to sell, these "relatively weak" stocks are the first ones that everyone targets to sell short. I'm not saying that this market is a short, there is no structure in place to signal anything like that. I am just mentioning the lack of follow through issue, because it is something to keep in mind when buying this breakout. In summary, this market is in a small consolidation and needs to push 310 to signal further buying. Triangles are considered trend continuation patterns so a breakout should take this price into the next resistance in the 350s to 370s. The problem is BTC is pushing higher while this market is staying quiet. Relatively speaking, not exactly a great sign when considering longs. If price breaks out, it's okay to participate, just always be mindful of your risk and the fact that anything can happen. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
18
The Bitcoin Rally LONG Continues #2In my opinion, Bitcoin seems to be completing a Wave 4 Triangle formation and will soon breakout of structure to start wave 5 LONG. It seems Wave 3 has already been completed and provided another base Resistance level. Wave 5 target range would be largely due to the impending Aug1 SegWit, as information was provided on my previous analysis here: which it explains the impending August 1st SegWit upgrade and the market entering panic stage (wrongfully because of too many amateur traders), which most likely will result in a deep ABC or possibly a very lengthy double combo WXY Wave combination, until the market settles and things return back to normal. In my analysis, I have added 2 paths which I believe are highly probable to take place, one primary and one secondary. TDI suggests the RSI is not yet quite reached the overbought position, therefore, we can expect an additional upward move, which in my opinion confirms again the possible wave count. I have already entered 3 times since price action had reached the Gartley entry point on the 16th of this month and I shall be holding on to BTC long-term, as I believe once the upgrades have been completed and the panic by the amateur traders has subsided, BTC is surely set to reach above $4,000, possibly more in the next few months. It is also possible to trade the breakout of structure from the triangle formation, however, TP must be at the next Resistance level SL (Stop Loss) must go to BE (Break Even). ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar. This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out. .....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP ! :::::..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn661419
BTCUSD Overview: Consolidation May Be Over Soon.BTCUSD Overview: Without getting into the detail on a 15 minute chart, I want to provide a broader view based on price action with some perspective on wave counts. It is clear that this market is currently in a Wave 4 triangle. You can count 5 subwaves within the formation (I left them out for chart clarity) which means there is a good chance we may be forming the first leg of wave 5 which can take this thing beyond the 3000+ all time high. In order for this bullish condition to stay intact, price needs to stay above the major trend support of 2188. That is a .382 measuring from the bottom of wave 3. As long as we stay above that, it is reasonable to expect continued upward momentum. If price closes below, that will signal a more complex wave 4, or further consolidation to come. At the moment, the key resistance zone that needs to be cleared is 2645 to 2790 area. It is a broad resistance, but if price closes beyond this range, then it would confirm for me that wave 5 is in progress. An area that I would consider for a bullish reversal on a smaller time frame is the 2420 area. it offers a lower risk entry in my opinion because it is a .618 retracement of the minor bullish swing that we are at the peak of currently. If a trade setup appears and is taken, some targets to consider are 2818 (T1) and 3070 (T2). In conclusion, there are more signs of strength than weakness in this market, despite being in a corrective wave pattern. It is possible that price may not retrace back to my ideal support, find support sooner and continue higher. Keep in mind there are plenty of minor supports and levels on the smaller time frames than can provide earlier entry prices and risk metrics, I just wanted to begin with a broader view of this market for now. Let's see where it goes from here.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
Sugar (SB1) should be close to completing wave 3 I'm looking for wave 3 to complete at 12.67, where wave v of 3 will be 61.8% the length of wave i thru wave iii subtracted from the top of wave iv. It should just be a matter of time before wave 3 completes and a corrective rally in wave 4 takes over. As the correction in wave 2 corrected a large part of wave 1, we should expect wave 4 to only correct a minor part of wave 3. A 38.2% correction of wave 3 will see wave 4 moving up to 16.03 before turning lower again in wave 5 towards 9.98. Regarding the corrective pattern of wave 4 it should turn into either a flat or a triangle to alternate from wave 2.
SLong
by EWS
1
Feeder Cattle - In a running or expanded flat wave 4 It has been a while since I last updated my count on Feeder Cattle. In my update from August 8 - 2016 I called for wave (A) to be in place at 134.25. The price-action that followed, doesn't really support wave (A) having completed and therefor, the preferred count has been changed, to this count, which shows that only wave 3 completed at 134.24 and the ongoing wave 4 is now in wave C higher of an running or expanded flat, towards at least 144.60 and likely higher to 151.00 in a running flat. If, however the top of wave A at 151.20 is taken out, the target should be closer to 160,50 in an expanded flat correction to complete wave C of 4 and setting the stage for the final impulsive decline in wave 5 of (A). But for now, we should keep our focus towards the upside for a test of resistance at 144.60.
QLong
by EWS
2
Possible current Wave 4 Intermediate with Harmonic confirmation?It seems we have a beautiful setup on this pair, with a Wave 4 on the Intermediate Period possibly half way before confirmation of Bullish Bat/Bullish Butterfly Harmonic patterns to then trade the SHORT on a wave 5 Intermediate. These moves are quite large which means I will trade the wave 4 up to possible entry #A (and if it continues upwards to Entry #B, I shall move SL to secure profit before entering the next trade on breakout of wave 4 for a wave 5 SHORT. MACD suggests more upwards movement as well as RSI. Stochastic suggests approaching overbought status. SMA clearly shows bearish position therefore I will trade the LONG until the Bat/Butterfly Harmonic patterns have been confirmed before the SHORT for wave 5. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar. This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out. .....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP ! :::::..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by UnknownUnicorn661419
BTCUSD: Final Leg Down of Wave (4)? Or further to go?Our last post highlighted the idea that Wave (E) may not have been completed (see related link) and it appears that alternative has come to fruition. We were expecting a move down to the 61.8% fib ratio of Wave (C) but we have moved well past that. The next target would be $613.58 which we may have just hit (or almost hit) while I am typing this. This would make a perfect LONG opportunity as we have very strong resistance in the $610-$614 area: The bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart is at $611.39 Wave (C) low was $610.10 The 78.6% fib length of Wave (C) is $613.58 Five waves down can be counted on this latest drop therefore we should get relief soon (if not immediately). Place your stops slightly below $610 and we have a potential for a large move up with minimal risk to the down side. (Current price is $621) If we hit our stops around $610 then it appears that the alternate wave count as denoted on the chart in red is in play. This alternative would have us going down further to conclude Wave (Y) and ultimately Wave (4). If our $610 stop is hit then we will post another update outlining targets and alternatives.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Volatile_Victory
2
BTCUSD:Quick Wave (E) UpdateAs of my last post, numerous signs pointed to Wave (E) being complete. With this morning's move down, it re-opens the idea that Wave (E) is not complete (although it still could). If Wave (E) is not complete then we have a good target for when it may complete. The price target would be $630.09 which is the 61.8% fib ratio of Wave (C). Typically Wave (E) will be 61.8% the length of Wave (C) which takes us to that 630.09 target. The time target is July 27th at around 8AM EST (noon GMT). This time is exactly the same time length of Wave (D). Fib ratio of 1.0 (60 bars on the 4 hour chart). Likewise, this is exactly the fib ratio of 2.0 of Wave (C) which was 30 bars on the 4 hour chart. If Wave (E) is not complete, which is what I'm leaning towards then hitting $630.09 on July 27th at noon GMT makes a perfect target where we can place a buy order followed by a stop loss at $609.78 which is the bottom of Wave (C). If the low of Wave (C) is broken then that would be bearish and we would need to re-evaluate our waves.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Volatile_Victory
3
BTCUSD: Contracting Triangle ABCDE Complete. Wave 4 As Well?Several signs are pointing to the ABCDE contracting triangle being complete: Looking at the daily oscillator, you can see that each wave in the ABCDE corresponds to prior to the daily oscillator's fast (gray) line passing the slow (purple) line. The daily oscillator's fast line just passed the slow line giving us confirmation that Wave (E) should be complete. The fibonacci time of the (E) wave is 1 (identical) to the (B) wave time. Price has bounced off the top of the Ichimoku Cloud's resistance which is a bullish sign. Confidence in the ABCDE contracting triangle now being complete is extremely high due to the above reasons. The ultimate question is if wave (4) is now complete. If wave (4) is complete then wave (5) has begun which should take us up above the wave (3) high of $789.78. The first confirmation of wave (5) having begun will be price exceeding the wave (D) high of $683.20. If wave (4) is not complete then the end of the contracting triangle is wave (W) and we should see a three wave up (X) followed by another move down to complete wave (4). I would say there is a 60% chance that wave (4) is complete and a 40% chance that we experience an extended wave (4) WXY pattern. Either way, you should be long at this time and if we see a three wave pattern up with a bearish oscillator reversal then we'll take profits before the move down.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Volatile_Victory
BTCUSD: Wave 4 Contracting Triangle StatusMy previous chart is still in play although the timing may have been off. There are currently three scenarios in play: Wave 4 has already concluded and Wave (5) up has begun. (I do not believe this to be the case since the move up has not been impulsive which would be required for a wave 5) We are still in an ABCDE triangle pattern which is what I have charted. Wave (D) would have concluded with the July 16th high and we are currently in wave (E) down. If this is the current scenario then I would expect for wave (E) to complete within the next 3-7 days followed by an impulsive move up to begin wave (5). The top of the Ichimoku Cloud would make a perfect bottom of wave (E) resistance for the reversal. With my last chart, I cautioned that wave (E) tend to false breakdown which would happen in this scenario as it would require it to break the green trend line from the wave (A) bottom to the wave (C) bottom and which we have followed very closely for the past 7-10 days. The final option is that we are in wave 4 with an extended combination pattern such as WXY. If this is the current scenario then we would be at best slightly greater than half way through it and at worst, only a third of the way through it; meaning it would take a few weeks to resolve before concluding wave (4) down and followed by wave (5) up. If this scenario unfolds then I will post an update. The good news is that regardless of which of these scenarios that are followed that wave (4) will eventually end and wave (5) will take us up past the wave (3) high.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Volatile_Victory
GBPUSD Rally or Correction?GBPUSD has reached the top of the channel and retreating back again.. If we are still correcting as I think we are in a Primary Wave 4 then GBPUSD would go down from current levels all the way down to the bottom of the channel and probably make new low to complete Wave 5.. However, if it goes higher and keep on rallying from here then we are probably in new Wave that was started and which keep on going higher from here.. Lets see which Wave are we unfolding here.. Is it going to Correct or Rally? Happy Trading!! Siraj Hudda, CFTe Web: www.prowaveanalysis.com Skype: sirajhudda Email: contactus@prowaveanalysis.com Facebook: www.facebook.com Twitter: twitter.com LinkedIn: in.linkedin.com
Short
by SirajHudda
EURGBP Hot Spot -- On top of several wave relationshipsEURGBP appears to be finishing a move lower as the pair plows into a cluster of wave relationships. It appears to be close to finishing wave 4 (w-x-y). That wave count suggests a 5 wave move higher that could reach .8150. When you draw a trend line connecting the end of wave 1 & 3, then duplicate that line to the end of wave 2 to obtain an approximate area for wave 4. Also, if you draw a trend channel within circle wave 'y' (grey trend line), the equal wave measurement appears near 7560 which was tagged Wednesday morning. EURGBP may bounce around here a little, but the point is this move lower appears mature. The top of wave 1 is the risk to the trade, so a stop loss could be placed near .7490. Couple this idea with the EURUSD post from earlier this week which also appears to have some bullish potential. On June 1, a new contest for FXCM mini accounts begins. Check out the current month standing here. There are a lot of Elliott Wave relationships taking place on this pair. I welcome your questions on EW. Best of luck!
Long
by JWagnerFXTrader
16
GBPJPY Tags Measured Waves - Higher Probability of Sell OffLast night, the Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates which made for a weaker Yen driving the GBPJPY higher. Last week, we anticipated a move up to the 174 region and now that we are there AND we have the BOJ driving negative interest rates, do we continue higher or is this it? When assessing the intraday charts, there is a strong confluence of wave relationships in the 173.35-174 region. This suggests an elevated opportunity for a 300 pip sell back toward the purple support line. The Elliott Wave labels on the chart suggest an even deeper fall back towards 166. Let's take it one step at a time right now and see how this behaves as it approaches support near 169-170. Feel free to check out DailyFX's Q1 Yen Forecast HERE . Lastly, I would like to put a big shout out and THANK YOU to the TradingView webinar attendees yesterday. TradingView is an excellent host and we did manage to get off topic a few times which makes it fun too. There were some fantastic questions. Many were asking for a recording of the webinar which can be found here - www.youtube.com I would like to highlight one question by Kyle who hasn't been profitable on his demo asking when should he go live. The answer was provided during the 1:02:25 to 1:06:56 mark of the video. Check out the notes section of the youtube video for the links referenced in the video. Have a blessed weekend!
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
6