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Wave4

BTCUSD Update: Very Important LevelBITFINEX:BTCUSD hit our first top projection at 6200 level, but we still see room for a new high, so we have to be very careful arround those levels! We believe that Bitcoin is in minor three wave correction of red wave (IV) with strong support arround 5000-5200 level and 38,2% Fibo. retracement. Keep in mind that 4th waves can be very complex, for example: flat corrections, triangle patterns or even more complex corrections. If Bitcoin goes straight to new highs, be aware of 5th wave, our second top projection arround 6400. But if Bitcoin from any reason declines and breaks lower our strong support at 5000, then we could face even bigger and much sharper decline back to arround 3000, where we see next potential support! Have a nice weekend!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by ew-forecast
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Larger Correction Likely.BTCUSD update: Zooming out and looking at the bigger picture always provides important clues as to what price is more likely to do in the near future. In this analysis I am reevaluating the Elliott Wave count in light of the most recent support and resistance levels. The next wave that is most likely to unfold is a bearish one and can take this market back into the mid 4000s before reaching for new highs. As I have written about before, I always perform Elliott Wave analysis but I do not always write about it. The reason is simple: I do not want to confuse my readers, so when information is clear and makes the most sense, that is what I write about. Whether that is talking about Fibonacci levels, wave counts or other relevant levels chosen by the market. Right now in this market, the wave count is worth highlighting. The reason is this: the market just wowed the world with a breakout above 6k. It went slightly higher and then pulled back to a minor support. Enthusiastic buyers who want in will see this as an opportunity not to miss the BTC train to 7k or whatever new number the hypsters are hyping about and it is a trap. I will refer to Elliott Wave to further explain. Going back to earlier this year and recounting the waves puts the current rise into much better perspective. And as you can see on the chart, the sell off that occurred in the previous month was the Wave 4 that I was expecting to unfold further at the time. The market proved me wrong and with the new upleg in place, there is a clear count with a recent high completing 5 subwaves of Wave 3 of a larger 5. When 5 waves complete, often a correction follows, and the coming correction in my opinion is a Wave 4 retrace that can take price back to significantly lower levels. The first support is the .382 of the recent bullish structure which is the 5159 area. A break below that, and price can possibly retest the 4526 to 4073 support zone which is the .618 of the recent bullish structure. Corrections typically unfold in 3 waves, A is the first retrace, B which can actually take this market to a slightly new high, and then the infamous C Wave which is often the emotional sell off that scares everyone out of the market. The good news is after this Wave 4 completes. then there is the expectation of Wave 5 of 5 which can possibly take this market into the 6500 area (which happens to be the 2.618 extension measured from the low of this wave). Also Wave 4's are often the most predictable wave because 3 waves need to be in place first (which they are). The upcoming forks may serve as an appropriate catalyst to help Wave 4 unfold, also remember a bearish surprise can come out of no where and trigger the persistent selling as well. In summary, this wave count offers a possible road map as to how price is more likely to unfold in the coming week(s). How is this helpful? Well it tells me not to take any longer term positions at these levels for one, and to keep my profit expectations low if any long setups do occur on smaller time frames. Remember this is just an idea based on the structure that the market is presenting at the moment. I will be using this as a reference to be prepared for the Wave 4 low and reversal. I will also be watching for bearish confirmations along the way and if they don't occur, then I know this wave count carries less weight. And just to be clear, I am not shorting this market, just waiting for the next buying opportunity. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
30
Bitcoin - A nice little S/H/S top confirms wave E is developing Wave D peaked nice near the expected resistance-area and now a nice little S/H/S top confirms that wave E is developing. The ideal target for this E-wave is seen at 3,655, but be aware that triangle E-waves can be sub-normal and complete the triangle consolidation prematurely. Once this wave 4 triangle is complete a strong rally is expected in wave 5. A Bitcoin seems to have a tendency to extend its fifth wave rallies, that could call for a rally all the way to 9,150, before topping.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EWS
2
Sugar - Triangle consolidation in wave 4 completeIn my September 28 update, I called for a final zig-zag rally in wave e to complete the triangle consolidation in wave 4. This e wave has developed as expected and wave 4 is now complete. The final impulsive decline in wave 5 should now be seen towards at least 10.11 and more likely closer to the cluster supports in the 8.39 - 8.77 area from where a new rally towards 14.45 is expected. Resistance at 14.58 should continue to cap the upside for a break below the triangle support-line near 13.05 for the final impulsive decline in wave 5.
SShort
by EWS
DJI - Correcting in wave 4/A relentless rise only interrupted by small correction has been the name of the game since November last year. I think we have seen the peak of wave 3/ at 22,419.52 and a more substantial correction is about to unfold in wave 4/. I'm looking for a correction into the price range of wave iv of one lessor degree between 20,371 - 21,153. This should set the stage for the final rally higher in wave 5/ to complete the long-term rally from March 2009. As we enter the final rally, caution is advised. As wave 2/ a double combination, I will be looking for a triangle consolidation in wave 4. This will mean the low of wave 4/ should be seen early in the correction.
DJ:DJI
by EWS
11
Bitcoin - Target area for wave D seen between 4,390 - 4,425My preferred count remains that a triangle is unfolding as wave 4. If this count is correct, then the ongoing wave D rally should complete in the 4,390 - 4,225 area for a final zig-zag or series of zig-zags decline(s) in wave E towards 3,655 to complete the triangle consolidation and wave 4 for a strong impulsive rally in wave 5. In my September 14 post. I called for wave C to complete near 3,300. It did extend below that point and bottomed at 2,972, but no matter what, this should be the lowest point of the wave 4 correction as stated then. As there seems to be a tendency for extended wave five rallies, I will be looking for an extension this time too, which could cause a rally in wave 5 all the way up to 9,150...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EWS
1
Amazon - Long term countI was asked to show my long term count for Amazon.com as the top seen at 1,083 only was viewed as a wave 3 top. This means that the ongoing correction "only" is wave 4. The Elliott Wave Principle says that wave 2 and 4 should alternate in structure. As wave 2 was deep - It corrected 61.8% of wave 1 - That indicates wave 4 should relatively shallow and not correct more than 38.2% of wave 3. Wave 2 was relatively simple in its structure, indicating that wave 4 should be complex and be either a flat or a triangle construction. Once this ongoing wave 4 correction is complete, we should look for a new impulsive rally in wave 5 to complete wave III higher from 5.51.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by EWS
Amazon - S/H/S top buildingAmazon peaked in wave 3 at 1,083 and has since build a possible S/H/S top, This top-formation will be activated upon a break below the neckline support at 927 and will call for a decline to at least 770, which is the measured S/H/S top target. However, the Elliott wave count, shows wave 3 peaked at 1,083 and now is correcting lower in wave 4. As wave 2 was a simple deep correction, that corrected 61.8% of wave 1, we should expect a prolonged flat or triangle consolidation in wave 4. The 38.2% correction target of wave 3 is seen at 679. Once this wave 4 correction is complete, a new impulsive rally to above 1,083 is expected in wave 5 towards 1,757.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by EWS
2
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Head And Shoulders Reversal Sign?ETHUSD Update: Head and shoulders formation appearing under the 306 resistance. Is this a sign of a reversal? How does the BTC pullback factor in? I will address these questions. Also the magnitude of this consolidation has prompted me to reevaluate my wave count. First is the head and shoulders which most of you know is a bearish reversal chart formation. Yes it is a bearish sign, but as I have mentioned in other reports, I do not give much weight to smaller degree formations in the face of broad bullish trends. As bearish as this may look, no supports have been taken out yet. This helps me not to short strong markets, and I learned this lesson the hard way, by shorting strong markets that would suck me in with bearish chart patterns. If you are long, just remember the supports and the BTC relationship will be a better guide in my opinion. The support levels that are still in play are the 279 and the 263 levels. I have written about these extensively in previous reports. If 263 breaks, it will signal a larger consolidation is in play rather than a broader bearish trend and will open the door to the 230 support area. IF this market were to break 208, that would put the broader trend in question. Now about the wave count. Some people have asked me about how I counted the current bullish wave and I explained my reasoning behind my Wave 3 extension, but as it turns out, the extension appears to be a subwave 5 of a larger 3. Which means we are in a larger degree Wave 4. Even though my original count was slightly different, it did not change the anticipated direction, only the expected magnitude of the current Wave 4. And that is why I do not get caught up in exact wave counts. When the market prompts me to adjust, then I adjust. There were some traders who picked up on this current wave count before the market made it obvious, thank you to the people who pointed this out. The larger degree Wave 4 puts the 263 support level into perspective. A bullish reversal off of that level would be a convenient spot for the larger degree Wave 5 to begin. The larger Wave 5 can take this market up into the 350 to 380 area and that is going to be my target. Risk will have to be determined once this market shows some price stability. This takes me to the BTC relationship since there is a lot of varying opinions on this. BTC has been retracing to a larger extent, and as expected, this market is following. Now some may be watching these currencies against BTC as a pair, and sure if BTC is declining at a faster rate, the price on that chart will go up. I am not watching those, I am watching against the US dollar. Why? Because that is my base currency which means that we cannot forget to consider the strength and weakness of the USD. The dollar has been weak, but if you look at recent activity, it is in the process of retracing back up which should exert more pressure on the BTC pullback. All the markets that have been relatively weak against BTC as it pushed highs are now pulling back significantly, like LTC and XRP. My point here is it's more than just a BTC/altcoin relationship. It's more like BTC/Altcoin/Fiat relationship. Something to keep in mind. In summary, this market is in a larger degree Wave 4 which in my opinion is the most predictable wave. There is room for one more leg up (Wave 5) which can push prices up into the 350 to 380 area. I am not predicting this event, instead I am gathering clues that support the likelihood of this scenario. 263 Is the key support I am watching for a bullish reversal along with price stability in BTC and weakness returning to the dollar. If it sounds confusing, remember keep it simple and evaluate one market, I just refer to others for clues. When this market heads back up, signals will present themselves. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels:Triangle Breakout? Where's Volume?ETHUSD Update: Triangle unfolds as BTC and other alt coins make higher highs. The fact that price is not breaking below the 279 support is a sign of strength BUT this lack of participation is concerning. The 306 resistance zone (.618 of bearish swing) seems to have muted the bulls that were pushing this market higher. As a result, a symmetrical triangle has formed which is not unusual for a wave 4 (mentioned in previous report) . These triangles are typically continuation patterns and a breakout to the upside should take this market into the higher part of the resistance zone around the 350s. Somewhere in the 350 to 380 area is where I anticipate the subwave 5 to complete which would also complete the larger degree Wave 3. My wave count puts the short term target near the upper resistance zone or possibly in the low 400s. Once the broader Wave 3 has completed 5 waves, a larger degree Wave 4 will likely follow. These are the kind of waves the scare everyone one out (Like the one that took this market to 136 low three weeks ago, remember?). I will get more into that when the market provides the appropriate clues. As of now, we still have upside potential and the event to watch for is the 310 break out to the upside. The first area I would consider for a stop is the 290 level which is in the lower range of the triangle. The risk is 30 points which is reasonable considering the first target is at least 350. RR is slightly higher than 1:1. This kind of breakout with increasing volume is also a welcome sign and should give this market the umph it needs to reach the new highs. As I mentioned earlier. this lack of participation (and volume) is a concern because BTC and other alt coins are pushing new highs and this market should be following. In the stock market, when a sector rallies, all the stocks in the sector usually get a boost, and ones that do not follow are usually considered weak. As soon as the sector begins to sell, these "relatively weak" stocks are the first ones that everyone targets to sell short. I'm not saying that this market is a short, there is no structure in place to signal anything like that. I am just mentioning the lack of follow through issue, because it is something to keep in mind when buying this breakout. In summary, this market is in a small consolidation and needs to push 310 to signal further buying. Triangles are considered trend continuation patterns so a breakout should take this price into the next resistance in the 350s to 370s. The problem is BTC is pushing higher while this market is staying quiet. Relatively speaking, not exactly a great sign when considering longs. If price breaks out, it's okay to participate, just always be mindful of your risk and the fact that anything can happen. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
18
The Bitcoin Rally LONG Continues #2In my opinion, Bitcoin seems to be completing a Wave 4 Triangle formation and will soon breakout of structure to start wave 5 LONG. It seems Wave 3 has already been completed and provided another base Resistance level. Wave 5 target range would be largely due to the impending Aug1 SegWit, as information was provided on my previous analysis here: which it explains the impending August 1st SegWit upgrade and the market entering panic stage (wrongfully because of too many amateur traders), which most likely will result in a deep ABC or possibly a very lengthy double combo WXY Wave combination, until the market settles and things return back to normal. In my analysis, I have added 2 paths which I believe are highly probable to take place, one primary and one secondary. TDI suggests the RSI is not yet quite reached the overbought position, therefore, we can expect an additional upward move, which in my opinion confirms again the possible wave count. I have already entered 3 times since price action had reached the Gartley entry point on the 16th of this month and I shall be holding on to BTC long-term, as I believe once the upgrades have been completed and the panic by the amateur traders has subsided, BTC is surely set to reach above $4,000, possibly more in the next few months. It is also possible to trade the breakout of structure from the triangle formation, however, TP must be at the next Resistance level SL (Stop Loss) must go to BE (Break Even). ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar. This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out. .....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP ! :::::..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn661419
BTCUSD Overview: Consolidation May Be Over Soon.BTCUSD Overview: Without getting into the detail on a 15 minute chart, I want to provide a broader view based on price action with some perspective on wave counts. It is clear that this market is currently in a Wave 4 triangle. You can count 5 subwaves within the formation (I left them out for chart clarity) which means there is a good chance we may be forming the first leg of wave 5 which can take this thing beyond the 3000+ all time high. In order for this bullish condition to stay intact, price needs to stay above the major trend support of 2188. That is a .382 measuring from the bottom of wave 3. As long as we stay above that, it is reasonable to expect continued upward momentum. If price closes below, that will signal a more complex wave 4, or further consolidation to come. At the moment, the key resistance zone that needs to be cleared is 2645 to 2790 area. It is a broad resistance, but if price closes beyond this range, then it would confirm for me that wave 5 is in progress. An area that I would consider for a bullish reversal on a smaller time frame is the 2420 area. it offers a lower risk entry in my opinion because it is a .618 retracement of the minor bullish swing that we are at the peak of currently. If a trade setup appears and is taken, some targets to consider are 2818 (T1) and 3070 (T2). In conclusion, there are more signs of strength than weakness in this market, despite being in a corrective wave pattern. It is possible that price may not retrace back to my ideal support, find support sooner and continue higher. Keep in mind there are plenty of minor supports and levels on the smaller time frames than can provide earlier entry prices and risk metrics, I just wanted to begin with a broader view of this market for now. Let's see where it goes from here.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
Sugar (SB1) should be close to completing wave 3 I'm looking for wave 3 to complete at 12.67, where wave v of 3 will be 61.8% the length of wave i thru wave iii subtracted from the top of wave iv. It should just be a matter of time before wave 3 completes and a corrective rally in wave 4 takes over. As the correction in wave 2 corrected a large part of wave 1, we should expect wave 4 to only correct a minor part of wave 3. A 38.2% correction of wave 3 will see wave 4 moving up to 16.03 before turning lower again in wave 5 towards 9.98. Regarding the corrective pattern of wave 4 it should turn into either a flat or a triangle to alternate from wave 2.
SLong
by EWS
1
Feeder Cattle - In a running or expanded flat wave 4 It has been a while since I last updated my count on Feeder Cattle. In my update from August 8 - 2016 I called for wave (A) to be in place at 134.25. The price-action that followed, doesn't really support wave (A) having completed and therefor, the preferred count has been changed, to this count, which shows that only wave 3 completed at 134.24 and the ongoing wave 4 is now in wave C higher of an running or expanded flat, towards at least 144.60 and likely higher to 151.00 in a running flat. If, however the top of wave A at 151.20 is taken out, the target should be closer to 160,50 in an expanded flat correction to complete wave C of 4 and setting the stage for the final impulsive decline in wave 5 of (A). But for now, we should keep our focus towards the upside for a test of resistance at 144.60.
QLong
by EWS
2
Possible current Wave 4 Intermediate with Harmonic confirmation?It seems we have a beautiful setup on this pair, with a Wave 4 on the Intermediate Period possibly half way before confirmation of Bullish Bat/Bullish Butterfly Harmonic patterns to then trade the SHORT on a wave 5 Intermediate. These moves are quite large which means I will trade the wave 4 up to possible entry #A (and if it continues upwards to Entry #B, I shall move SL to secure profit before entering the next trade on breakout of wave 4 for a wave 5 SHORT. MACD suggests more upwards movement as well as RSI. Stochastic suggests approaching overbought status. SMA clearly shows bearish position therefore I will trade the LONG until the Bat/Butterfly Harmonic patterns have been confirmed before the SHORT for wave 5. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar. This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out. .....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP ! :::::..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by UnknownUnicorn661419