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Wave4

BTCUSD:Quick Wave (E) UpdateAs of my last post, numerous signs pointed to Wave (E) being complete. With this morning's move down, it re-opens the idea that Wave (E) is not complete (although it still could). If Wave (E) is not complete then we have a good target for when it may complete. The price target would be $630.09 which is the 61.8% fib ratio of Wave (C). Typically Wave (E) will be 61.8% the length of Wave (C) which takes us to that 630.09 target. The time target is July 27th at around 8AM EST (noon GMT). This time is exactly the same time length of Wave (D). Fib ratio of 1.0 (60 bars on the 4 hour chart). Likewise, this is exactly the fib ratio of 2.0 of Wave (C) which was 30 bars on the 4 hour chart. If Wave (E) is not complete, which is what I'm leaning towards then hitting $630.09 on July 27th at noon GMT makes a perfect target where we can place a buy order followed by a stop loss at $609.78 which is the bottom of Wave (C). If the low of Wave (C) is broken then that would be bearish and we would need to re-evaluate our waves.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Volatile_Victory
3
BTCUSD: Contracting Triangle ABCDE Complete. Wave 4 As Well?Several signs are pointing to the ABCDE contracting triangle being complete: Looking at the daily oscillator, you can see that each wave in the ABCDE corresponds to prior to the daily oscillator's fast (gray) line passing the slow (purple) line. The daily oscillator's fast line just passed the slow line giving us confirmation that Wave (E) should be complete. The fibonacci time of the (E) wave is 1 (identical) to the (B) wave time. Price has bounced off the top of the Ichimoku Cloud's resistance which is a bullish sign. Confidence in the ABCDE contracting triangle now being complete is extremely high due to the above reasons. The ultimate question is if wave (4) is now complete. If wave (4) is complete then wave (5) has begun which should take us up above the wave (3) high of $789.78. The first confirmation of wave (5) having begun will be price exceeding the wave (D) high of $683.20. If wave (4) is not complete then the end of the contracting triangle is wave (W) and we should see a three wave up (X) followed by another move down to complete wave (4). I would say there is a 60% chance that wave (4) is complete and a 40% chance that we experience an extended wave (4) WXY pattern. Either way, you should be long at this time and if we see a three wave pattern up with a bearish oscillator reversal then we'll take profits before the move down.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Volatile_Victory
BTCUSD: Wave 4 Contracting Triangle StatusMy previous chart is still in play although the timing may have been off. There are currently three scenarios in play: Wave 4 has already concluded and Wave (5) up has begun. (I do not believe this to be the case since the move up has not been impulsive which would be required for a wave 5) We are still in an ABCDE triangle pattern which is what I have charted. Wave (D) would have concluded with the July 16th high and we are currently in wave (E) down. If this is the current scenario then I would expect for wave (E) to complete within the next 3-7 days followed by an impulsive move up to begin wave (5). The top of the Ichimoku Cloud would make a perfect bottom of wave (E) resistance for the reversal. With my last chart, I cautioned that wave (E) tend to false breakdown which would happen in this scenario as it would require it to break the green trend line from the wave (A) bottom to the wave (C) bottom and which we have followed very closely for the past 7-10 days. The final option is that we are in wave 4 with an extended combination pattern such as WXY. If this is the current scenario then we would be at best slightly greater than half way through it and at worst, only a third of the way through it; meaning it would take a few weeks to resolve before concluding wave (4) down and followed by wave (5) up. If this scenario unfolds then I will post an update. The good news is that regardless of which of these scenarios that are followed that wave (4) will eventually end and wave (5) will take us up past the wave (3) high.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Volatile_Victory
GBPUSD Rally or Correction?GBPUSD has reached the top of the channel and retreating back again.. If we are still correcting as I think we are in a Primary Wave 4 then GBPUSD would go down from current levels all the way down to the bottom of the channel and probably make new low to complete Wave 5.. However, if it goes higher and keep on rallying from here then we are probably in new Wave that was started and which keep on going higher from here.. Lets see which Wave are we unfolding here.. Is it going to Correct or Rally? Happy Trading!! Siraj Hudda, CFTe Web: www.prowaveanalysis.com Skype: sirajhudda Email: contactus@prowaveanalysis.com Facebook: www.facebook.com Twitter: twitter.com LinkedIn: in.linkedin.com
Short
by SirajHudda
EURGBP Hot Spot -- On top of several wave relationshipsEURGBP appears to be finishing a move lower as the pair plows into a cluster of wave relationships. It appears to be close to finishing wave 4 (w-x-y). That wave count suggests a 5 wave move higher that could reach .8150. When you draw a trend line connecting the end of wave 1 & 3, then duplicate that line to the end of wave 2 to obtain an approximate area for wave 4. Also, if you draw a trend channel within circle wave 'y' (grey trend line), the equal wave measurement appears near 7560 which was tagged Wednesday morning. EURGBP may bounce around here a little, but the point is this move lower appears mature. The top of wave 1 is the risk to the trade, so a stop loss could be placed near .7490. Couple this idea with the EURUSD post from earlier this week which also appears to have some bullish potential. On June 1, a new contest for FXCM mini accounts begins. Check out the current month standing here. There are a lot of Elliott Wave relationships taking place on this pair. I welcome your questions on EW. Best of luck!
Long
by JWagnerFXTrader
16
GBPJPY Tags Measured Waves - Higher Probability of Sell OffLast night, the Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates which made for a weaker Yen driving the GBPJPY higher. Last week, we anticipated a move up to the 174 region and now that we are there AND we have the BOJ driving negative interest rates, do we continue higher or is this it? When assessing the intraday charts, there is a strong confluence of wave relationships in the 173.35-174 region. This suggests an elevated opportunity for a 300 pip sell back toward the purple support line. The Elliott Wave labels on the chart suggest an even deeper fall back towards 166. Let's take it one step at a time right now and see how this behaves as it approaches support near 169-170. Feel free to check out DailyFX's Q1 Yen Forecast HERE . Lastly, I would like to put a big shout out and THANK YOU to the TradingView webinar attendees yesterday. TradingView is an excellent host and we did manage to get off topic a few times which makes it fun too. There were some fantastic questions. Many were asking for a recording of the webinar which can be found here - www.youtube.com I would like to highlight one question by Kyle who hasn't been profitable on his demo asking when should he go live. The answer was provided during the 1:02:25 to 1:06:56 mark of the video. Check out the notes section of the youtube video for the links referenced in the video. Have a blessed weekend!
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
6
Volume Signaling Weakness - Watch 1.27-1.2850The Loonie has been slopping around sideways for the past couple of weeks. Back on July 22, we wrote about the possibility of a multi-hundred pip sell off. After a brief dip, prices drifted higher from July 29-Aug 4. The Aug 4 peak occurred at a level where a wave relationship suggests the possibility of a deeper sell off (see wave relationships below). The inability of USDCAD to move higher while Oil slips lower has renewed my interest in this pair. The higher probability opportunity shows the potential for a dip to 1.27-1.2850. Since we are 200+ pips above those levels, we have a short opportunity. Be mindful that we are likely in a wave iv which means there would be a wave v higher. Also, the picture is slightly mixed with Elliott wave, wave relationships, and OBV showing bearish signs. SSI is the outlier in the analysis as it suggests a bullish move is coming. That mix may also support the wave iv position. Here is a summary of the main variables/indicators we watch: Elliott Wave Count – we appear to be in circle wave iv which appears to be carving an expanded flat downward correction – this means a sell off, if it transpires, should prove temporary in nature Wave Relationships – The Aug 4 high occurred at the 1.382 expansion of the July 24-July 29 drop. This is a common relationship in a ‘B’ wave of an expanded flat or running triangle. If we are in an expanded flat (or complex W-X-Y) targets exist in the 1.2700-1.2850 zone. SSI – current reading is -2.3 and last week it was at -2.1 so little has changed. Long positions are 31% below levels from last week and short positions are 69% levels from last week. SSI suggests a bullish move is coming as the shorts build. OBV – Volume on an intraday time frame (2hr and 4hr) are showing the down volume is occurring with greater frequency and depth than up volume. For example, the OBV on the 4hr chart is already below the Aug 12 level (yet price is still higher than Aug 12). Also, OBV is at the same level from July 29. This is indicating weakness because price is still 200 pips higher today than July 29 while volume is at July 29 levels. I welcome your thoughts and comments. Best of luck!
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
4