AUDCAD BUY IS COMING I haven't changed anything since I did my last idea on this. I told those during BoC news trading to buy and sell at the 50% fib. I did not take the sell as I am a BUYER of AUSSIE for the foreseeable future and I will have to counter this with how CAD moves with oil as time goes on. I am studying the effects of cad and oil on audcad. I have heard playing the extreme prices on daily work well on this pair. We have hit the price zone I expected to come into play. NOW we are looking for the INV head n shoulder pattern I kinda threw out there on the last idea pre-move of BoC jump and drop wave 5. Understand that POINT D has 2 points it can always hit. D1 or D2 which is a farther fib extension and gives a higher probability of reversal momentum.
Steps that have successfully happened in this idea..
- BoC rate was not changed as expected
- Wave 5 reversal came into play after the breakout of the pennant.
Point D2 was successfully hit giving the market a better discount on AUSSIE dollar.
How to handle this trade:
BUY STOP around D with a SL below the daily low of the wave 5 bell curve
What you shouldn't do: Try to catch a falling knife. wait for a reversal confirmation or bet low with a high range of +/- ratio if you are a swing trader.
Wave5
ETHUSD Buy Zone 309.4 - 303.83 Profit Potential = 5% risk = 2%The buy zone is shown by the green box.
If the stop loss is hit, then this count is invalid and there will likely be further downward movement.
The profit target is at $322.50 - This is where wave 5 is equal to 0.618 x (the length of wave 1) + (the end of wave 4).
Disclaimer: This material should not be the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation to engage in investment transactions, and
is not related to the provision of advisory services regarding investment, tax, legal, financial, accounting, consulting or any other related services, nor is a
recommendation being provided to buy, sell or purchase any good or product.
BTCUSD 2%-3% gain potential (SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITY)Profit target = $12120
Stop Loss = $11590
Buy Zone is between $11840 and $11640 (if the price does not fall to this zone, this trade will likely not be worth taking).
The potential gain is between 2% to 3% and the risk is between 1% to 2%.
This is a classic Elliott Wave trading set up. If you have any questions please feel free to message me or comment and I will be happy to answer.
Disclaimer: This material should not be the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation to engage in investment transactions, and
is not related to the provision of advisory services regarding investment, tax, legal, financial, accounting, consulting or any other related services, nor is a
recommendation being provided to buy, sell or purchase any good or product.
USDCHF wave 5We are coming to the end of a correction wave, wave 4, and can now look for potential selling opportunities.
There is strong resistance at 0.9900 which also happens to be a phycology level.
The 61.8% retracement from the previous high is at 0.9893.
Weekly 20 and 50 EMAs are closing in on each other and if they cross this will give us further confirmation.
I will be placing an order as follows:
USDCHF BUY LIMIT @ 0.9900
SL @ 0.9970 (70)
TP @ 0.9575 (325)
Risk:Reward = 4.64
If the order isn't filled I will look to enter the trade manually.
SL just above 78.6% retracement and daily 50EMA.
TP at weekly resistance.
EURUSD 17062019Last push down before a pull back ? lets see
Share your thoughts and observation in comments session :)
-------------------------------------
Risk warning!
Trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and may result in losses that exceed your initial deposit.
Supplied information is not advice.
-------------------------------------
BTCUSD - 5 Waves then bounce?Anybody reading me knows I have been following this multi-year baby blue trend-line for quite some time. After the price broke above it last time it came back down to kiss it and then took off to all time highs. ($20K) My expectation is for something similar. As you can see in this chart there may be a 5 wave move down to the line on the 4 hour chart. If this holds, the RSI, MACD, Stochs, etc. should have pulled out of oversold enough to fuel the next bull run North. This is my current line of thinking but anything could happen. When I say hold I don't mean a spike low through the line only to quickly recover. If it is to fail we need see a couple daily closes below the trend. If that happens I will reevaluate to see if I have the line drawn as accurately as possible or assess that maybe something else is going on.
Good luck this week!
MONDAY MORNING(05/20)Everything you need to know Analysis-WAVE 5What do we know so far?
Wave 3 extended to x4.62 (8400). Wave 4 was pretty violent and it ended up bottoming at 6400 and did not take the traditional ABC path of wave 4's, which has made counting for wave 5 much more difficult. Volume has calmed down somewhat compared to the wave 3 highs.
What is BITCOIN currently up to?
Momentarily, after hitting the bottom of wave 4-6400(That was projected in an earlier- link in the related ideas ), BITCOIN is in an - "Bilateral ascending triangle" . From the right chart, we can see that the 1.62x Wave 5 target-8200, was in fact hit yesterday. Here are the bullish and bearish scenario.
1. If BITCOIN closes above 8200=> This could take bitcoin to the blue squares drawn on the left chart. The ultimate extension for wave 5 would be 2.62x- approx 9300. Caution here is that extended Wave 5, usually tend to lead to quite strong consolidations. The other targets as labelled in the chart are, 9600-9800 from the structural extension of the bilateral triangle.
2. The bearish outcome of the triangle would start by BITCOIN breaking the triangles trending line ( labelled as purple curves ). This is can be quite an expected outcome, since it already hit the 1.62x target for Wave 5. In this case, BITCOIN could retest its 50 week MA, or the structural support around 6.4k.
How should I trade this?
In both of the charts, there are squares that are market for potential profit taking and potential bear traps, and guidance suggestions if crucial trend-lines get broken. Do not be fooled by some of the analysts claiming bitcoin will reach the old highs (Not,just yet). Above 10K, is the FOMO territory and I would not recommend to anyone to enter a long/buy position until things settle. Before we reach the old highs, we have to test the old lows/averages.
The last question: Why has bitcoin gone on such a rally ?
Bitcoin confirmed the 50 Month MA support late into 2018. As with all the other assets, particularly equities which bitcoin has carefully followed so far. Equities since January are up about 30%, so it's no surprise that bitcoin would start such a rally. Additionally, the crypto consensus(13-15th of May) expectations and all the invention revelations that were made public, helped the market gain momentum and confidence. This was seen last week, as most of the alts broke their crucial 50 week MA's.
Finally, once the wave 5 top is confirmed, if I have time, I will update this analysis with the potential ABC consolidation points for bitcoin.
Step_ahead_ofthemarket and Happy trading!
>>If you liked this take on bitcoin , I would really appreciate a thumbs up or follow up for more.>>
It seems that especially this summer will be extremely volatile for all markets. There will be plenty of detailed analysis following up.
P.S. Do comment your agreeing TA or one with a difference of opinion!
So what is the secret?Not seeing anything to trade right now, so I am just chilling, and posting stuff here. I am following 2 trading rules at once (do not overtrade & take breaks to relax).
The best exceptional individuals dump on the early pros and savvy investors that dump on the institutions that dump on the various funds that dump on the twitter shills that dump on the baggies that dump on the best exceptional individuals that...
Gosh, if we could only shift it all by one the joe "macdonalds" macbaggy could actually make it. So close. Yet so far.
The secret? Not chasing every single move like a coke addicted chimpanzee. Choose the select few you KNOW are exceptional opportunities, and let the stuck struggling tryhards laugh at you for missing out.
Let the FOMO crew laugh at you for "missing out" and "being so wrong about the trend", smile when you dump on them for the 10th time in a row and they start being angry and calling you mean "what did we do to you?". So I suppose you could say here to emotion is important. If you start whining because the general public and low tier shitfunds make fun of you you will NEVER be able to do this.
Also, just having common sense and not - well, being a coke addicted chimpanzee that gets excited or panics.
Facts matter. You get in for a reason. You get out for a reason.
I will list 15 of the top rules of Paul Tudor Jones, I agree with most of them, well all of those here (just that number 1 does not apply to most of us):
I find it very interesting that Bitcoin "traders" as in "not gamblers" have the exact opposite rules. They are very educational.
Let me show you:
They are just so bad. Amazing. Like they try to be as awful as possible. And they even manage to lose by trying so hard to catch bottoms like the top traders.
They are even worse than "general public". This is why I love them so much, so educational. Just do the exact opposite of what they do.
And you do not need to be the 1 in a million.
Even the "various funds" make money. Sometimes they blow up too, so the rule "cut your losers" has no room for errors.
Bitcoin - Buying that dip (hold your breath)Bitcoin is at it again! Just like the last time, it's been a light-speed ride on the bitcoin train lately. Be prepared for some type of pullback anytime. We could see a low wick below $5k (maybe even $4.5k) but I'll be buying it, spread out over a few points. If we bounce again, it COULD be a very traumatic experience for bears....on the other hand, we may be seeing the high of the year in the first half of May. Be prepared for a V-bottom and development of a new downwards trendline somewhere around 200% higher (~$14k). Then, expect consolidation IMHO. If we don't see that hard rip within the next few weeks, anticipate somewhat of a war to reach $8k as all the folks buying in now make some very tricky decisions (and consider it a confirmation we're inside of either a bullish wave-4 with a much less-likely possibility it's a B-correction on the weekly chart). I'm out with buy orders scattered below. Probably a bit early to bail, I usually am, but I'd rather admit I'm wrong and buy back a tad higher later when I miss than be stuck for weeks under $8k when that cash could have been at work elsewhere.
BTC ... could it be??Hello everyone. Following the Elliott wave count, I am still expecting one more drop (sub-wave 5 of wave C, the capitulation wave). This could also be considered the spring test in Wickhoff Theory (I'm not an expert, but communicate with one that is).
It's clear, there are plenty that are expecting a new bottom, and it is also clear the market has gone (bullish) mad with just a $700 rise! We must consider this sentiment. These feelings are forces to be reckoned with, and so neither the bull or the bear will just sit back and allow the other to win. What I'm trying to say is that it's not going to be easy for the bears to get this much lower, as in sub $2900. It's not impossible, and that's easily proven by how deep they were able to take it back in November from $6k to $3k, cutting through all support like nothing. But now we are in a new layer of trader ... as we dig deeper into the price, we deal with stronger Hodlers, people who have dealt with BTC for over one year or longer. They were either smart enough to not get burned in the bear market (the 20%) or they have lost almost everything and don't really care at this stage if it goes down further, they are committed to holding (most of the 80%?).
So, I print this potential pattern ... let's see if this triangle wave unfolds. This would be sub-wave 4 ... and then a final sub-wave 5 down to 29XX?? ... or will the bulls hold the line at 31XX ... or will the bears break their spirit and take it to 1300 - 1800 territory? Right now, if I was forced to choose, I'd say 29XX to 31XX will be held. That will be a fairly bullish sign for me and then it would likely only be a matter of time before we (slowly) start our new bull run.
Let's analyze this triangle ... it seems we have topped out now. Bears will likely take advantage of that red candle on the daily. Finex longs have closed out drastically, which means the market generally thinks it's the top ... however, there's another point there ... the bears won't be able to stop hunt much, because longs have closed out in droves. I print wave D hitting the bottom of the ichi cloud and finding support. Then wave E tops out about where the ichi cloud twists on March 18th ... the ichi twist has almost always predicted a top or a bottom. The last one a few days back, proved to be a local bottom before we had that nice pump up to $4k.
Let's see how this plays out.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for trading, investment, or financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
BTC/USD(Breakdown)Impulsive Elliott waves onto 5/5Labelled chartPart of an update on the previous chart that hit it's targets for wave 4.(just had to be posted)
To some extent disappointing that wave 4 did not hit the higher variation(6800 0.382), but nevertheless it's time to start labeling wave 5 and it's variations.
There's typically 2 variations:
1. 1.62x Wave 1(Target 5450+/-)
2. 2.62x Wave 1(Target 4800+/-)
However I cannot dismiss 5000 as a psychological support, which just so it happens to currently sit around the 100 week moving average. As I always say by this point everyone knows whats going on, which makes wave 5's the least trustworthy of all.
Now that's been said, I do expect a pull back after wave 5 is over, possible in the range of 7100/ or at least retesting the bottom of the labelled white triangle.
The big elephant in the room is that, if by any reason the week closes decisively bellow the 100 week moving average, I'm quite literally expecting a blood bath. WE all know how sensitive the crypto market sadly is. Chances of this happening luckily are very,very low!
Please let me know in the comments, if any of the calculations are unclear or how'd I get to them. I'll try to keep this chart updated as much as I can.
-Happy trading folks-
.
.
.
Disclaimer:
//This is not a buy or sell sign, you decide what to do with your own money!//
If you liked my take on bitcoin , and/or other markets, comment your thoughts, agree or follow for more interesting analysis, much appreciated, thanks!
Foot Locker Set To Take Large Strides Over Next 3-4 MonthsFoot Locker is setting up to fly high over the next 3-4 months before reaching its next top. This top coincides with my projected market top during the October/November timeframe this year. Based on comparative trend analysis and derivative analytics, Foot Locker should reach its next top between August 9 and November 20 of 2018. The top should occur between 62.12 and 68.84. The minimum move to 62.12 from today's close of 51.92 would generate 19.64%. I am expecting the top to occur in early to mid October around 64.41.
Unlike some of the other stocks I am following, The 2019 pullback for Foot Locker should not be as drastic as the rest of the market.
A Final Hurrah For Micron Technology, 50-100% Over Next 6 MonthsMicron is in Cycle wave 5 & Supercycle wave 5 which is the last hurrah for the stock for now. The top of this wave should occur between October 12, 2018 and February 13, 2019. The top should occur between 79.22 and 95.24. These dates and numbers are based on comparative trend analysis and derivative analytics.
EOS ready for a move up?Quick one today everyone.
The first wave up went to just above $18, then corrected to just below the 0.786 fibo.
The second wave up went to just above $23, and then corrected, currently sitting just below the 0.786 fibo.
Is EOS ready for a move up? Using the ratio of peaks (second peak / first peak), the projected target for the third peak is $28 ... but $30 can easily be a level that it gravitates to.
On the downside, of course BTC going down will likely cause further EOS correction ... but I do see the $6 range as strong support. Likely the buy zone is $6 to $7 and the we wait it out ... if BTC starts a rally, EOS could do very well.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome!
Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.