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Wave5

Amazon - In an exponential rally. Next target seen at 1,862It should be clear to everyone, that Amazon is in an exponential rise and they even ever ends well (just remember the last one we saw in Bitcoin). The indicators shows a negative divergence relative to the price movement indicating that this rally is loosing strength and the potential upside is becoming limited. The next possible target for wave 5/ of 5 is seen at 1,862, but exponential rallies has a way of exceeding even the most optimistic, so I wouldn't be overly surprised to see an extension closer to 2,177, before wave 5/ of 5 peaks. However, all warning lights has started flashing, so keep your stop tight.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by EWS
1
My Next Projection For Pre-Memorial Day S&P 500Wave 3 took off as projected and it appears wave 4 just completed at the end of trading on Tuesday with a perfect 61.8% retracement of wave 3's movement. The next question is where will wave 5 lead? I project wave 5 will occur by the end of this week, which means next week could have some downward movement. Before that drop lets look at the top. My maximum movement could be a 215% extension of Wave 3 which would bring the S&P 500 up to 2780.35. This seems quite extreme and would require 20-30 point moves each day for the next 3. The most likely extension will be 138.2% of wave 3 which would bring the index up to the 2754 mark. My minimal projection would be around 2745. I am positioning for a move between 2745 and 2760 over the next 3 days. Let's see what happens...
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
ETH, big move up??Well, those of you who got into ETH down below should be happy. But there might be more, as long as BTC doesn't mess this up (and I have a feeling it will)... There are some nice jumps to be made with ETH between heavy resistance. Alts are fairly coupled with BTC and if bitcoin gives them that little push they need to get over resistance, then we have situations like ETH today. It looks like we are in wave 5 of an impulse right now. I look at a few clues, the first being the length of wave 3 relative to wave 1. For an ABC correction, I typically look for wave 1 and 3 being similarish in size. Clearly wave 3 is much longer than wave 1, so it could very well be an impulse, and we have 1 more leg to go. Wave 5's are a pain to predict ... inducing some mega confusion. The length is also unpredictable, if wave 3 is longer than wave 1, which is the case here. But I do see some strong resistance at 760. So I'm looking for another 30 points up from the current 730 range. Assuming that's the end of wave 5, it will then correct ... and formation of the right shoulder of an IH&S is totally possible. That makes it really interesting because the head is 120 points ... would $880 for ETH be possible in the next few days ... yes, BUT only if BTC behaves ... and I don't think the odds are in our favor ... a BTC short from $9k is a high possibility. Anyhow, something to keep an eye on people, this could be the story over the next few days, especially given the exposure ETH gets on Wednesday this week at Consensus. Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome! Do not make financial decisions based on this information. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MAGICMARK
1
Oh the bliss, what a disguise. BTC will you go down or rise?Well, well, well .... just as I gave up on wave 4, here we are. At this point we've reached the all time high trend line and we are hitting a key Fib. Are we all wrong (oh yes, many have changed their tunes now after calling a 4k, 3k, 2k, 1k bottom). Wall street always wins, remember that. They want your money, so they do what's worst for you. Short you say, stay in cash you say? That must have hurt. I'm not trying to be funny guys, but we need to wake up. So where will it go now, as the BTC world turns to bullish euphoria? What will wall street do. It could go up, yes ... but at some point it will drop. The question is when. I don't know that, and it is clear most traders don't either. All I can say, according to the past, is what I think is key to determine sentiment and where I think it can go. At this stage, if we have topped out on wave 4 now, and EW theory holds true (although we already broke some principles), then the bottom in the mid term is estimated to be as low as 5.4k. It can bounce at 6k too! Anyhow, too many times I've been hypnotized by all the green, and then caught in a blood bath the next day. Not today, I'm starting to cash out and lock in my profits. Maybe I'm wrong ... but I'm very confident about one thing ... wall street always win. I'll be ready, either way they take it! Remember only a fool relies on one outcome. Do not use this for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
2
UPDATED Apr 4, 2018 - Bitcoin in it's darkest hourHello gang. So a quick update. I think that drop has invalidated Scenario B, which took wave 4 to the All-Time-High Trend line 2. In the least, it's definitely hurt the probability of it going there. I've removed it from the graph, to simplify the TA. The scenario I've shown here are Scenario A ... this assumes that we are still in mini wave 3 of an impulse wave down. It basically treats the small rally and reversal as "noise". It assumes we will have a hard bounce off 6k (double bottom test) before starting mini wave 4. Mini wave 4 stops short of the wave 1 bottom, and bounces off a Fib line (0.786) before making it's final plunge to the bottom. This assumes mini wave 5 is shorter than mini wave 3, which keeps Elliot Wave theory in check. The box shown at the bottom right is the target range for the bottom of mini wave 5 keeping these "rules" in mind, and there is support at 5.4k, 5k, 4.5k and 4k that all fall in that box, so anyone of those could be the point we bounce from. The other scenario I've shown here is Scenario C (B has been deleted) ... this assumes we finished mini wave 3 at 6.4k a few days back, and the recent rally to 7.5k is mini wave 4 completed. This means we would be in mini-wave 5 now, and the final wave to the mid-term bottom (and perhaps the very bottom). I've explained that comment below. If Scenario C is correct, then the box on the lower left is the potential target for the mini and grand wave 5 bottom, and there is support at 6k (double bottom test before a good bounce), 5.4k and 5k. Anyone of those could be the point we bounce from. A double bottom test at 6k to confirm "the bottom" would make sense in my mind ... but who knows what the big guys have planned to do with BTC. OK, so could this be the final bottom after a grand impulse wave from 20k to ??. Some will say that my grand wave is incorrect, and wave 1 is from 20k to 6k ... possible. That would put us in grand wave 3 right now, and therefore after some reprieve in a grand wave 4 ... we still have to form grand wave 5 and this would take us to a very low price (perhaps then those predicting a bottom at 1k to 3k will finally claim victory, but I think it will be months before we can get to those levels). Others have drawn the same lines and called it an ABC correction (20k to 6k is wave A, 6k to 11.7k is wave B, and now we are in wave C). This theory essentially means the grand wave 5 I have shown in this chart is wave C, and the outcome is the same. Remember, only a fool counts on one outcome! Please do not use this information for investment purposes. This is for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
LATEST UPDATE - Bitcoin in it's darkest hourHello all, so just some polishing up of the graph. I've slightly adjusted the 6m trend line and that fits better with the bounce off the 6400(ish) level. It's possible we have started wave 4 (see the path to point 4b, dark purple line). Could stop at 7200, but 7800 also is possible, if we allow Elliot wave principle to be broken. Who knows with potential market manipulation, I mean a good rally now would liquidate a bunch of short margin orders ... and that would make someone money (wall street, whale, etc). On the other hand, this could very well be a bull trap, and we are still in wave 3. This does fit in better with Elliot wave theory, and that could possibly take us to 6k (or slightly less) for a double bottom bounce, before we start wave 4 (see pink lines to points 3a and 4a). This brings into picture a potential bottom at 4k, but there is support before we get there, so a bounce off any of those lines is possible. So which way will it go? I'd look for at least a retracement to 6.5k before we can call off wave 4b ... and even then it's tricky. How about validation on the way up? Well, we can bounce off 7.2k down, and we aren't that far off. A break above 7.2k is likely validation for the path to 4b. In between ... range bound, which equals risky trade. As usual, only a fool relies on one possible outcome. Do not use this information for investment decisions. This is for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
BTC - in its darkest hour, UPDATED!After a good discussion on the Chart-Attack group (Telegram), thanks to one member Urban V, I'm more convinced of the above possibilities. What we have in this chart is Grand Wave (impulse) shown in red. In pink is the mini-wave which is forming wave 5 of the grand wave. The pink is scenario A, and you will see a possibility off that in a dark purple, which is scenario B. Scenario A shows that we have not completed mini-wave 3. We would likely go to the 6k to do a double bottom test, before bouncing (mini-wave 4 to point 4a), likely to the end of mini-wave 1, $7200. It's possible if we do not strictly conform to elliot wave principles that we go into wave 1 territory and test the all-time high trend line 2. From here (higher probability from $7200), we enter mini-wave 5 and can move anywhere in that lower box (ignore date position). It is possible to drop as much as $3200, which would be equal to the size of wave 3 to point 3a. That could bring us to $4k, and there is a support line just below this level, $3,900ish. Scenario B shows that at $6.6k btc we completed mini-wave 3 (at point 3b), and are now in wave 4b. This could also not conform strictly to elliot wave principles and test the all-time-high trend line at around $8.2k BTC. This would drop us down into the upper box range (ignore date position), and give us a double bottom bounce at 6k. $5.4k is a support level, but reaching this level would be make wave 5b slightly longer than 3b. Too many rules broken, so far less likely in my opinion. As, only a fool relies on one potential outcome. Do not rely on this information for investment decisions, this is for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
BTC ... in it's darkest hour.Well, since publishing my last idea, we have confirmation ... we are not in a triangle wave. This has simplified things, and it is likely we are in wave 5 ... the final, darkest hour for BTC. Of course everyone is asking, where is the bottom. I've read 6k, 4k, 3k, and even 1k in the blogs. Could any of these be discarded? NO! Why? Because it is BTC, and there are too many variables for any one human being to be able to draw a definitive line. However, let's not give up on TA just yet! Look above, I've spent some time on this chart. The grand wave is shown in red, and the question is where will point (5) stop. The purple wave is our current mini-wave, defining grand wave 5. Grand wave point (5) is dependent on the current mini-wave 4 recovery. To help, and because I've seen predictions as low as $1000 BTC, as well as taking all data into consideration for the past year, I've drawn Fibs from the low of $888 BTC, established on March 25, 2017 and the All-Time-High close to $20,000. I've also established some potential support lines, back to that time frame, within the probable range of the wave 5 bottom. Technically, mini-wave (purple) 4 should not go into mini-wave (purple) 1 territory, but it's not impossible. In fact if you look at grand wave (red) 4, it does go into grand wave (red) 1 territory. So two potential points defining the range for the mini-wave 4 end point. Option (4a) is stopping at the bottom of mini-wave 1. Option (4b) stops at the All-Time-High Trend Line 2. By the way, (4b) also happens to be around the 0.618 Fib retracement, and I'd say that is interesting. I'm doubtful wave 4 could go any higher. So really, mini-wave 4's likely range is $7200 to $8200. Then down. The second thing we need to note is that mini-wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. Mini-wave 1 is already very long, so mini-wave 5 needs to be the shortest. This is a pretty hard-core rule for Elliot Wave. Mini-wave 3 was a drop of approximately 2600 points. So, if we take 2600 points as the max for the mini-wave 5 drop, and we hypothesize that mini-wave 4 will stop between $7200 and $8200, we can define the likely target range for the mini-wave 5 and grand-wave 5 end point (they will coincide). The boxes I've drawn are essentially the target range for wave 5, with the top being defined as the bottom of mini-wave 3 as a minimum retracement, and the bottom of the top box being mini-wave 4b top less $2600, and the lower box being mini-wave 4a top less $2600. If this sounds confusing, slow down, read this carefully, until it makes sense. Within those defined boxes, I've drawn support lines that are likely meaningful, and selected the lines that fall within those boxes. If mini-wave 4 goes to point (4b, approx $8200), then we will likely have a $6k double bottom bounce (perhaps with a small extension below $6k). If mini-wave 4 stops at point (4a, approx $7200) then we will likely go to the $4.9k level. After that, if Elliot Theory applies, we should start a GRAND RECOVERY!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
4
EURUSD - Bull Run to Continue Following Completion of Wave 4I'm eyeing wave 4 to end around 1.16570 and run 1.0 of wave 1 = 1.20650; but may also be 2.0 of wave 1 = 1.24801. A length of 2.0 also has confluence of intersecting with channel boundaries in symmetrical days (30) as Wave 1. Rues: IF Price Action = 1.16570 AND there is a major reversal pattern or candle on 1-day or 4-hour chart AND there is some major fundamental news favoring EUR or disfavoring USD, THEN use buy stop when trend line breaks to confirm trend (~1.16799) setting TP1: 1.20180, setting TP 2: 1.24952 Good luck!
Long
by milljohner