Wave5
ALL good if we dont break the support. We are at a crucial support, if the support hold we are going to see massive profit.
If it doesn't, we could see substantial loss.
Break the support on the 4h chart would be a signal to sell and buy back lower.
EOS Still Has a Long Way to Go; Target @ $17EOS has not even completed the five subwaves of wave 3. EOS has just completed subwave 4 and is about to start subwave 5. Subwave 4 is in the shape of a bull flag and is a ABC correction. Since subwave 3 was longer than subwave 1, subwave 5 is likely the same length of subwave 1 and hit $17.
After EOS, completes the five subwaves of wave 3, it will likely correct to the 0.382 Fibonacci Level, which is $14. That gives us a good opportunity to increase our position and prepare for wave 5.
Disney On Final Leg Of Wave 5Still polishing my Elliott Wave reading, but looks like the ride could be over for Disney. The stock should make it to the 116-120 range before beginning its next wave. I am entering tomorrow with an exit planned in this 116-118 target range. The stock could form a double top or go higher. The only certainty is it will make it to 116 which is at least a 5% gain over the next month.
Such Currency, Plz pump; Dogecoin consolidation over?Dogecoin appears to be currently on intermediate wave 4 (blue) and is about to start wave 5. Wave 4 is a flat correction, which is a 3-3-5 ABC correction. Soon, Doge should start pumping again and hit the short-term target of 11k.
Doge could hit as high as 1750 in the long term. Since cycle wave 1 (pink) and wave 3 are about the same length, wave 5 should extend. Then assuming a 0.618 retracement of wave 3 and a 1.618 Extension, we get a target around 1750k.
Boeing - How high can it fly?Boeing - How high can it fly?
Boeing has gone supersonic and is close to leap into space... But is this time different and it will become weightless or will gravity make its influence pull Boeing back down? You can be sure that it's the later that will win causing a major plunge in a not too distance future.
The reward to risk ratio no longer favor staying long in Boeing. Wave 3/ of 5 has already seen a 500% extension of wave 1/ and is close to being a 161.8% extension of wave 1 through wave 3 added to the low of wave 4.
I expect wave 3/ will peak at 295.75 for a correction towards at least 255 and maybe even closer to 231 before the final spike higher to 311 to complete wave 5/ of 5. This will be when gravity finally will pull Boeing back to earth, for a strong decline to 175.50.
Don't fall in love and fly away with Boeing at these levels...
Ripple Not Done Quite YetThe price of XRP has jumped dramatically, but it's not done yet! XRP has just completed a leading diagonal, and after a very short correction (which may already be done), the price will start shooting up again. The first target is $3.50, which is just over the previous high since minor wave 5 (black numbers) should exceed minor wave 3. The second target is $4.20, which is just a physiological resistance level. Don't worry, I don't smoke weed. Of course, XRP could exceed these targets.
However, I must warn you that after this pump, XRP could crash to below $2.00 as the price has simply gone up too much too fast.
Zcash Long to $900+I've counted the Elliott waves, and I have only spotted 3 completed waves so far. That means that ZEC should experience some more correction in wave 4 before exploding up again. ZEC already completed subwaves A (12345 impulse) and B (abcde rising wedge). Wave C should start soon, and should be a downwards 12345 impulse. Of course, there is a possibility of further corrections in the form of WXY, but in that case, the corrections would be small and contained.
My conservative target is $820, a 1 to 1 Extension of wave 1, and my aggressive target is $905, a 1.618 Fibonacci Extension of wave 1. I believe that ZEC will likely hit the 1.618 Fib Extension, because waves 1 and 3 were about the same length. According to Elliott Wave guidelines (not rules), wave 5 will often be extended.
REDD Coin performing wave 5 count?It seems REDD Coin has just started it's wave 5 count in a bullish trend. Price action is above the Ketchup (13 EMA) as well as the Water and Mayo EMAs. 'TDI' shows additional suggestion that an upward move will continue as the 'RSI' line has just hit the upper outer band of the 'TDI' channel, pushing towards the '60.0000' area. In my opinion this will continue to rise whilst making significant gains as it ploughs through the resistance areas.
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DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar.
This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out.
.....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP! :::::.....
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ETH Long to 920According to the Elliott Wave count, ETH just finished sub-wave 4, meaning ETH will start another short impulse and hit $920 soon. The price could easily go over $920 to around $1000. However, keep in mind that ETH is just finishing up the last sub-wave of wave 5. During the correction phase afterwards, ETH could lose 20% of its value or more! Nonetheless, after the severe correction, I believe that ETH could rise to $1400 in the long run.
Also, the RSI is starting a strong uptrend, and the MACD is about to experience a crossover.
BCH ready to EXPLODEBCH is forming a symmetrical triangle, and we are at the very tip of it. That means that correction is almost over! When the wedge formed between August to October, the price exploded afterwards! We are now forming a very similar pattern. There is no reason to think that the same thing wouldn't happen to BCH.
The RSI is showing the same thing. The RSI is forming a bullish falling wedge. Last time we formed a bullish falling wedge, the price skyrocketed. Why won't the same thing happen again?
With Elliott Wave analysis, we see that we are forming a ABCDE correction and are on wave 4. That means we have one more wave to ride, and that wave will bring us to a new all time high!
The journey to $3000 will be a rough one, but remember this is not a swing trade or a day trade. It could take us a couple months. Still, doubling your money isn't bad, right?
IOTA ready for Wave 5We have just finished our correction and are looking to start wave 5 of this amazing run.
During the correction, you will see that we hit the fib lines perfectly, ending with a kiss to the 618 line. The fib extension for the 5th wave matches perfectly with the retracement of this correction, so I am thinking we will reach $7.15 (to possibly even $9.80) for this next run.
Don't know about ya'll but I'm stocking up on more IOTA!
disclaimer: NOT advice, only my opinion. DYOR and use this only for comparison
Total anonymization is a powerful tool! It attracts money.Hiding monies, doing illegal stuff, cover up identity etc is something a signifcant amount of people wants to do. And what is the best financial tool to do so? That old horse Monero!
Fundamental
Maybe Monero isnt the best financial tool? There is a lot more anonymous coins out there, Zcash and Dash for example. Though it's not Dash's selling point anymore, it actually started out as Darkcoin and back then it was.
It's my belif that Monero is the best, and my knowledge about the subject is probably higher than average, but many know much more so don't take my word on it. Research if interested :)
What I am certain about though, is that Monero is the go to coin when you want to be 100% anonymous today.
Monero has been around a long long time and still going amazing.
That's what I believe will attract buyers. The fundamentals are good and people are using XMR.
Cryptoland is on fire and getting money poured in, there is big reason to think that a large portion of that will go towards Monero.
It's a coin you just need to have a portion of in a cryptoportfolio.
Technical
Right now I believe we are looking at the fifth wave, and that it can go as high as 430 USD. Though I don't like that last bit of risk outside of my pitchfork so looking to get out at 355 USD.
There we have the 3.618 from wave 4. Including the edges from pitchfork.
I've had Monero for a long time, but I think it's time to add a little bit more.
50% here at current prices (185 USD) and 50% if it gets back down to the support between the 3.618 from wave 2 and last ATH, let's say 150 USD.
Stop Loss below 135 USD, should be good support there :)
Numbers
Buy - 185 & 150 USD
Sell - 355 USD
Stop Loss - Below 135 USD.
DJT - Wave 5/ of 5 of V to cluster resistance near 10,756The Transportation index in now in wave 5/ of 5 of V and should ideally make it higher to the cluster resistance near 10,756.
It's clear that a five wave rally can be counted from the March 2009 low of 2,134 and a five wave rally can also be counted from the January 2016 low of 6,403. Once this five way rally is complete a decline towards at least 6,403 should be expected. However, my preferred count shows that this five wave rally completes an impulse of one larger degree, which calls for a corrective decline all the way down to the March 2009 low at 2,134...
It's no a question of "if", but "when" the DJT tops. So don't fall in love with Transportation and become overly bullish at this point.
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: How Low Can It Go?BTCUSD update: Price establishes lower high at 3808 and is poised to push lower, but the question is how low? I am going to present some possibilities based on Elliott Wave and Price Extensions. This chart further explains why I will not go long ETHUSD at current prices for a swing trade.
In my previous report I talked about the double bottom on the 4 hour ETHUSD chart and price pushed back up above the 270 resistance. Some may wonder, why wouldn't I talk about that as a trading opportunity? The reason is, that particular price action does not fit within the criteria of my swing trading plan. That doesn't meant it can't be considered as a smaller time frame trade, like a day trade, but that is up to you. I do not write about day trade opportunities and setups because there is too much complexity and adjustments that have to be made for that type of trading especially to report in a timely manner. My goal here is to provide analysis that offers perspective and to help you make better decisions in general, but the emphasis is on swing trading.
With that being said, I am waiting for a setup in ETHUSD that can get me in for a broader move, and since I am not shorting these markets at all, that means I can only wait for a long setup in the right environment. Since all the alt coins are following BTC, I am using this market to provide clues for timing such a trade.
In terms of Elliott Wave, this market has established lower highs at 4120 (Wave 4 of C), and at 3808 which may be the beginning of Wave 5 of 5 which is likely to complete the corrective Wave C. A measurement of the current price structure reveals the 4.618 extension around the 2824 area which is located within the 3024 to 2497 support zone (.618 of the entire recent bullish swing). Also it is important to note that the 3003 level is the peak of the broader Wave 3 that was established in June of this year (see weekly chart). A retest to slightly lower levels makes sense and would be a convenient area for a completion of the corrective wave structure. (It would also be a very large double bottom relative to the 2980 low).
This scenario can take a week or more to play out and will require a significant catalyst or series of catalysts to drive the required momentum. I will be watching for a break of the 3490 weekly low, which is the first sign that this extreme low scenario is more likely to unfold.
So how is this information useful? For one, I will not buy anything at the current price levels. If price is going to build a bullish argument from here, it needs to take out the lower highs and establish a clear bullish structure. That means 3955 needs to be taken out, followed by a higher low. There may be fluctuations that offer opportunities on smaller time frames (like in ETHUSD), but until the market shows clear signs of resistance being taken out, on the swing trading time frame, this price action doesn't offer attractive reward/risk.
In summary, make sure to separate your perspective by time horizon. Big picture and small picture can be very different and present relative opportunities along with their own degree of risks. As a swing trader, my risk parameters are clearly defined and if the market does not align with my requirements, I simply stay flat until it does. This market, the leader of all coins, still has room to test lows and the price structure to support that scenario. Using this information helps shed light on the fluctuations in the alt coins that may look more promising than they really are. If strength intends to come back to this market sooner, it will prove itself through the appropriate price structure and I can adjust from there.
Comments and questions welcome.
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Bearish Momentum And 260 Support.ETHUSD Update: The 271 level has been taken out as bearish momentum slowly works it's way back into the price action. If price takes out the 260 support (.382 of current bullish swing) then this market is more likely to retest the 237 to 219 support zone (.618 of current bullish swing). If price is going to get extreme, like I have been writing about in recent reports, a strong catalyst will be required to push price faster.
I recently evaluated the BTCUSD and LTCUSD markets and the charts look the same. Momentum is bearish, and although the underlying bullish price structure has not been taken out yet (260 and 237 to 219 support areas in this market), any fundamental surprise will push these markets through these levels because the current resistance zone (271 to 291) is now a lower high. As we know by now, lower highs lead to lower lows which means there is less of the chance that the current support levels hold, and more of a chance they break.
And a lower low within this context points to a Wave 5 of C which can take all these markets to retest the extremes (see LTC report). Now will this happen for sure? No one knows, and one scenario that will make for more of a bullish argument is if price can find support above 260 and then break back above the 278 level which is the .382 of the current minor bearish swing. Such a break would indicate the price is still range bound rather than bearish.
If anything, buying at the current levels, and even the 260 support area carries more risk than is worth taking. The lower high that has been established in the 271 to 291 area means price needs to clearly break above the zone to open any possibility of seeing the mid to high 300s again.
So in this market, I am only interested in buying in the following two scenarios: the extreme price scenario where the market retests the low 200s or lower. This is not a swing trade and does not have any stop, because risk will be managed through careful position sizing. (Just liked I explained in my LTC report). There is no setup for this, and no buying the bottom. IF price gets near the lows, especially quickly, I will start accumulating (core position for multi year hold.)
The second scenario is the SWING TRADE setup within the 237 to 219 support zone. If I see a double bottom or higher low on a smaller time frame (30 Min) in that zone, I am willing to put on a long with a stop about 5 points below THE FIRST LOW of the SMALLER TIME FRAME reversal formation. The stop should not be more than 25 points of risk while my target will be in the mid 270s. Risk reward should be greater than 1:1. If price falls through the support zone with no setup, I will stay flat and watch for the first scenario. If this is confusing, just stay flat.
You may wonder "Why anticipate a sharp bullish reversal off the 237 to 219 support when we are more likely in a bearish Wave 5 and supports are expected to break? The reason is there is an overlapping support zone. The 237 to 219 is within the broad 233 to 190 zone which has clearly attracted enough buyers to squeeze price back up to the 290s even in the face of extreme bearish momentum. I am simply looking for history to repeat itself.
In summary, the coin markets in general looked poised to revisit lows and I am preparing for multiple scenarios by utilizing different strategies, Each strategy (position trade, swing trade) has it's own separate risk parameters and management style and it is important to understand this. If you don't then you will take risks that are not proportional to your account size. I try my best to explain my thought process to help you shape your own plan. This isn't a prediction or advice, it is a perspective. Also remember I am anticipating two scenarios out of limitless possibilities and I am NOT trying to be right, I am trying to be prepared, and most importantly FLEXIBLE by constantly adjusting to new information.
Comments and questions welcome.
LTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Extreme Price Plan.LTCUSD Update: Same situation as the BTC market with consolidating price action just under the 55 resistance level (.382 of bearish swing). I am writing about this market to show what I am thinking for longer term positioning.
This market has previously lagged the top coins, and seems to now be following the leader which in my opinion makes it more attractive for long term strategies compared to swing trading or day trading. Also the present price structure may offer a clearer hint as to what the leader (BTC) is more likely to do in the near future.
First let's talk about the wave count. Just like BTC and ETH, this market is showing a 3 3 5 corrective formation with the current consolidation being a Wave 4 of C which means one more leg lower is likely and would be Wave 5. If this wave extends and revisits the low in any kind of dramatic sell off, it is possible to see price within the 37.50 to 22.50 range which is the .618 of the entire previous bullish structure (which it reached during the recent sell off). There is also a 1.618 extension at the 30.50 area which would be a convenient bottom area for a broad Wave 2 completion.
Keep in mind I am not predicting that this market will reach these levels. At this point I know that price action favors bearish momentum which means lower prices are likely to follow but I do not know how low. If selling momentum asserts itself again, price may find support in the 41 to 38 area which is the .618 of the recent bullish swing (which would also put the possibility of an extreme Wave 5 into question.)
Why not buy now? In order for it to revisit the extreme highs (like 80s and 90s), it first needs to push through the 70 to 80 resistance zone. Until that happens, price action will most likely be range bound and slow unless something fundamentally changes. This market is nowhere near that price zone, and instead hesitating just under the 55 resistance which I interpret as a more bearish sign.
So the reason why I am writing about this market is this: Any retrace to lower support levels, followed by a reversal, offers a long term buying opportunity in my opinion. I want to be prepared before this happens so if price reaches these projected supports, I will know what to do instead of react or hesitate. My plan is long term and NOT a swing trade, which means my entry does not have to be precise and also means I am willing to take pain.
There are two scenarios I am watching for. First is a retest and reversal back up off the 41 support zone. The second scenario is if price pushes extreme lows into the 30s or lower. In both situations, I will wait for the low candle to close, and then place an order to buy the break of the high of that low candle. TO BE CLEAR: This type of trading requires a solid plan and RISK management. I will not being using stops because it is a long term investment. So I manage risk through proportional position sizing instead. This means buying into it with an amount that allows me to take pain and still sleep at night. I can always add to the position on the way up. Again this is NOT swing trading, I must emphasize this because it has different risk parameters and management style. (No short term profit targets).
In summary, this market is interesting in many ways and if it offers extreme prices again, would be one that I intend to build a position for the long term. Presently price action is slow, showing signs of bearish momentum and is following the BTC lead. There is nothing attractive about the current price levels. The goal of this analysis is to provide an idea of how I am planning to get into this market, but the market needs to provide the opportunity. The plan must be in place ahead of time because in the thick of extreme price action, emotion will often get in the way. As my former Forex colleague Todd Gordon says: Plan your trade and trade your plan.
Comments and questions welcome.
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: 3690 Pivotal Support.BTCUSD update: The key resistance is the 4203 to 4548 area which is the .618 of the recent bearish swing. If price fails off of this area, it will need to find support above 3690 in order to maintain the current bullish structure and a chance to push beyond the 4548 level. If 3690 breaks, that could be the beginning of a correction that can take price back to the 3000 level.
As I wrote about in my previous BTCUSD report, this market appears to be in a C Wave and there are now 4 of 5 waves in place which means there is still a chance that Wave 5 unfolds. I am not predicting that it will, I am just going by the price structure that the market is showing at the moment. In order to add more weight to this scenario, the 3690 level (.382 of bullish swing) needs to be clearly taken out followed by a retrace to a lower high. On the 4 hour time frame, this process can take a day or two and will need a catalyst to ignite the required selling. In this scenario I would not expect support levels to hold, or only hold enough to generate a lower high followed by an eventual break of the 3227 level. If this price action materializes, I will be planning to invest at the extreme lows. Since all the coin markets are following this chart, you can buy any of them that suit your risk tolerance and affordability.
Now to make sure what I just wrote is CLEAR: Buying at extreme lows is NOT a swing trade strategy and not short term in any way. It is also not technical and more of a sentiment play. It requires you have a well defined plan, understand sizing and can tolerate risk. If you are not sure what I am describing, then it is best to stay out all together because you will only get yourself into trouble. Buying into extreme lows requires the ability to handle the risk. And this is NOT advice, I am just sharing what I intend to do IF this market offers an extreme low opportunity again in the near future. A push to 3000 or lower would qualify as extreme for me.
What if the market never retraces back to extremes? This is the other possibility where price pushes up into the current resistance zone, and pulls back into a significant support like the 3227 area without falling apart. I would categorize this price action as a range bound market which is not that unusual after the degree of recent selling momentum. In order for a market to get back to building bullish structure and pushing highs again, it needs to stabilize and build a base. A range bound market or consolidation is just that. This type of condition will offer trading opportunities, but they will have very conservative targets. Any swing trades that I take will be in the ETHUSD market while I use this market for further reference.
In summary, the market will choose a scenario, and the best we can do is be prepared for which ever one unfolds. Using elements like support/resistance and Elliott Wave can help us figure out what to look for and prepare. I realize many new participants think that this is a game of "outsmarting" the market or predicting what it will do next like a weather report. Analysis is not like that at all because all financial markets possess an element of randomness that we cannot control. The best we can do is evaluate price action, find clues and use them to anticipate what the market may do, and if our scenario unfolds, we simply execute our plan instead of reacting emotionally. If price cannot break the overhead resistance zone, and starts breaking supports instead, that will signal to me to stay out of any swing trades and only look for investment opportunities at extremes. If the extremes never happen, then the plan will be to look for swing trades within a range bound market. I have my plan, now the market needs to choose which way it will go. And if the market chooses a completely different scenario, I simply reevaluate and adjust to the new information.
Comments and questions welcome.
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Room For Lows.BTCUSD Update: Since this market is leading the entire coin world, it is a good idea to gain some perspective on where this market can go in order to better evaluate the risk of your positioning in the alt coins.
Let's begin with the current momentum since the recent price spike may have some people confused. The push back up to 3875 is just barely above the 3723 resistance (.382 of the bearish swing), and now price is retracing. A retrace to test the low is not unusual and can possibly offer a buying opportunity. The key support area for this scenario is 3319 to 3171. If price can reverse in this area, then a broader higher low structure will be in place and offer a short term (swing trade) opportunity with a conservative target. If this scenario unfolds, I expect the alt coins to follow. Reversal formations within the support area are the key requirement in order to define risk.
What happens if price falls through? Great question I'm glad you asked. If price pushes below 3171, then it is likely to retest the 2980 low. If that breaks, then that opens the door to a retrace that can revisit the 2497 level which is the bottom of the zone. This support zone is the .618 of the entire previous bullish swing and would be a convenient level for a broad Wave 2 to bottom. More on Elliott Wave in a moment.
If this market presents the scenario where this support zone breaks, the next support is 1930. Yes it sounds a little extreme, but it is the 2.618 extension projected from the 5000 high. I am NOT saying that the market will test this low, but IF it presents this scenario, then there will be some great investment opportunities in the alt coins in my opinion.
In terms of Elliott Wave, this appears to be a 3 3 5 correction with the current spike being 4 of C which means there is a greater chance that Wave 5 of C unfolds and as we have seen , Wave 5s have a tendency to extend. That is why I mention 1930 as a possibility. 1930 also happens to be the bottom of the previous Wave 4 when the market was still in the bullish structure if you look further back on the chart.
Within this bearish context, it is very important to wait for confirmations and have conservative short term targets for swing trades. Investing, as I have emphasized before is a different strategy that contains different risk parameters. If you are investing for the long term, then you must understand the risks, and see new lows as an opportunity and not have to worry so much about precise entries.
I am using this chart as a reference point for both swing trading and investing. As a swing trader, I am waiting to see if this market can stabilize somewhere within the 3319 to 3171 area I and will be watching cheaper coins like ETH and LTC for short term trades with conservative targets. As an investor, I am just watching to see if this market pushes lows so that I can purchase some lower priced coins for the long run which means I am buying to hold. It is a completely different strategy compared to the short term trades that I write about.
In summary, BTC is clearly leading the alt coins as evidenced by the similar chart structures across the board. If you are not trading BTC outright, in a sense you are still exposed to its price action by purchasing any alt coin, so it doesn't hurt to have some perspective on this market. Being that we are in a corrective C Wave, this market is more likely to retest the current low, if not push into lower territory before the bearish momentum exhausts itself. If a higher low forms, there may be a short term buying opportunity, but as far as going back to 5000, that is not happening until this market builds more of a base. In my opinion, this correction is a broad Wave 2 and when the bottoming process is complete (which can take weeks) that will eventually be the beginning of large Wave 3 and those of you who have been reading my analysis consistently should know what that means by now.
Questions and comments welcome.
Target zone for wave 5, comment on Sheba Jafari & Goldman Sachs
If the corrective wave 4 is concluded, and it looks like it is, the target for BTCUSD is minimum $6000.
If the correction is not over, then what is wave 4 for now, will become wave A, and we'll see wave C going below $3000, then wave 5 will proceed with slightly lower target.
The structure of BTC movement during last years is perfect, textbook Elliott Wave.
Wave 5, that Sheba Jafari of Goldman Sachs was referring to was only the internal wave of wave 3 visible above. CNBC also reported on her analysis on Mon, 14 Aug 2017. You can check it out.
Here I present the bigger picture of what she was talking about.
USD/CAD - Wave 1/ is expected to complete near 1.1925USD/CAD has seen a nice impulsive decline from the May high at 1.3794. This impulsive decline is coming to an end near 1.1925 and marks the end of wave 1/ of 3. Once this wave 1/ decline is complete a corrective rally towards the top of wave iv of one lessor degree at 1.2778 is expected.
A rally back to the top of wave four of one lessor degree is a very common corrective target. That doesn't mean that the correction in wave 2/ can't break above here, but more often than not the top of wave four of one lessor degree caps the correction in wave 2/.
Stay positive towards the Loonie, but don't fall in love with it just now.
