VeChain: Struggling…VeChain is struggling to stay above the key support at $0.018, but the anticipated low of the orange corrective wave ii should form above this red line – or may have already done so. Once the bottom is indeed settled, we expect the orange wave iii to break out impulsively, pushing well beyond the $0.08 resistance, where the entire orange five-wave move should ultimately complete the blue wave (iii). However, if VET falls below $0.018, the broader green wave alt. will reach a new bear market low (probability: 38%). Primarily, we consider wave as already finished.
Waveanalyses
Avalanche: Pending LowWith the recent sharp pullback, AVAX has entered the lower third of our magenta long Target Zone between $24.42 and $13.30. The low of the turquoise wave 2 is approaching and should form well above the $8.64 support. From the bottom of wave 2, we expect a rally in the turquoise impulse wave 3, which should aim for the current all-time highs of the last bull run.
Netflix: New All-time High!As expected, Netflix reached a new all-time high at $1,067, completing the magenta wave . Since then, the stock has already pulled back by nearly 20%. The ongoing magenta wave should extend further into our new magenta Target Zone, which spans $789.04 to $704.43. Since we anticipate a sustainable rebound from this range, it presents an opportunity to initiate or expand long positions. Such long entries could be hedged with a stop 1% below the Zone’s lower boundary, as there is a 30% chance that Netflix will drop below the Zone to complete the green wave alt. .
DUOL: mid-term trend structure Until price is holding above 13th Jan lows, my operative scenario is continuation of the upside momentum towards 420-450 resistance zone.
Moving and holding above 450 level increases the probability of a continuation move towards higher resistance levels at 590+.
Otherwise, until price holds bellow 450, there are significant odds of deeper correction in the mid-term before continuing macro uptrend
My previous idea on NASDAQ:DUOL from Dec'23 topping actions:
and update on break-out potential from Sep'24:
Thank you for your attention!
Take-Two: Continued Sideways MovementSince the beginning of February, Take-Two Interactive has been moving mostly sideways with a slight downward bias. Currently, the ongoing beige wave b should continue upward, driving the stock into the beige Target Zone between $241.59 and $257.87. There, this corrective rally should conclude, setting the stage for a sharp downward move. However, if the stock breaks below the support at $135.62, this will signal a premature correction low of the blue wave alt.(II) in the blue Target Zone between $107.47 and $46. We assign this scenario a 33% probability.
Decentraland: Corrective TerritoryDecentraland’s MANA remains stuck in corrective territory and should drift slightly lower in the short term, aiming for a new bear market low in the green correction wave . From that level, the next five-part magenta impulse should take over, pushing the price back above both the $0.59 and $0.85 resistance levels in wave . However, there is a 33% chance that MANA will progress faster than primarily assumed: the magenta impulse wave alt. could start directly, driving the price above the two green resistance levels at $0.59 and $0.85. In this alternative scenario, the green wave alt. would be already finished.
Salesforce: Further ProgressDue to continued downward pressure, Salesforce has made further progress in realizing our primary scenario. During the ongoing green wave , we still expect the stock to sell off below the support at $274. However, if the price imminently climbs above the resistance at $312, we will have to reconsider the structure of the ongoing decline and reckon with a magenta five-wave downward move. We currently assign this alternative scenario a 36% probability.
ExxonMobil: Final Pullback ExpectedExxonMobil should soon resolve the ongoing sideways phase, allowing the turquoise wave 2 to establish its corrective low below $104.84. This final pullback is still needed before the next impulsive rally unfolds. Alternatively, there is a 32% chance that the key low was already settled by the turquoise wave alt. 2. A break above $123.74 would confirm this scenario.
3M: Higher High ExpectedAt the start of the year, MMM continued to rise higher before the rally temporarily transitioned into a consolidation phase. February brought slight downward pressure, but after a brief spike back to $141 last week, buying interest returned noticeably. This triggered a strong upswing, with the stock gaining nearly 10% in just a few trading days. As a result, we have identified an internal five-wave structure within the turquoise wave 5 and now primarily assume that the magenta wave is already unfolding. This wave should extend further upward, marking the completion of the broader magenta wave (1). Afterward, we anticipate a significant wave (2) correction, which could also begin earlier. In this 35% likely alternative scenario, the stock would experience a premature sell-off below the $131.40 support, with wave alt.(2) eventually reaching our magenta Target Zone between $106.04 and $86.20.
Polkadot: Now It’s Crunch TimePolkadot has been unable to resist the widespread downturn in the altcoin sector, giving up much of its recent gains after a solid performance in recent days. Our grayed-out Target Zone for the low of the green wave is coming back into focus – though under our primary scenario, DOT shouldn’t fall much lower in the short term. If the coin drops below the $3.80 support, however, a new bear market low in our orange Target Zone between $2.40 and $1.07 will be on the horizon. In this 39% probable alternative scenario, the coin would erase all gains since the low in October 2023, implying a new bottom for the magenta wave alt. . In our primary scenario, we expect renewed buying pressure soon, which should allow the green wave to surpass the resistance at $5.38.
S&P500: Days of DecisionHovering near the 6,000 points mark, the S&P 500 enters the second half of the week at a critical juncture. The next few trading sessions will determine whether the index will push directly to new record highs or first undergo a more extended correction. In our primary scenario, the S&P should continue selling off to settle the turquoise wave 2’s low within the corresponding long Target Zone between 5,667 and 5,389 points. Only from there should the next turquoise impulse wave 3 take over, driving the index to new all-time highs beyond the resistance at 6,365 points. If the S&P immediately resumes its upward trajectory, it might break past 6,365 points without delay. In this 38% likely alternative scenario, the index would bypass the turquoise Target Zone and significantly extend the green impulse wave alt. . Primarily, we consider the green wave as already complete.
Apple: Top and DropAs part of Apple's ongoing wave (2) correction, we assume that the subordinate turquoise wave X still needs to conclude in the short term before the price can drop into our magenta Target Zone between $209.57 and $196.05. There, we anticipate a bullish reversal, which should offer trading opportunities for the long side and mark the starting point for the next major upward move. Alternatively, there is a 37% chance that the low of wave alt.(2) has already been reached, which will be confirmed if the price surpasses $260.10.
Oracle: Tilting Downward…After a sharp rebound from the $152.02 support following the steep drop from the peak of the beige wave II, Oracle is once again tilting downward as expected. The next step should see the price fall below $152.02 to reach the projected low of the beige wave III. After a countermovement of wave IV, the broader downward movement as part of the beige five-wave decline should extend further, ultimately driving the stock to the low of the overarching blue wave (A). If Oracle instead breaks above the $198.31 resistance in the short term, the macro-level light green wave alt. will rise to a new high. However, this alternative scenario holds only a 34% probability. Primarily, we assume that wave was completed with the December peak.
Disney: Recovery?!Disney appears to have stabilized after its recent sell-off, holding above the $106.26 support level. From here, the price should push beyond the $123.74 resistance during the turquoise wave 3. However, if it drops below $106.26 (41% probable), it will trigger our alternative scenario, signaling a move into our blue Target Zone between $97.27 and $91.46. After the wave alt.(ii) low in that range, the stock would quickly resume its upward trajectory.
PepsiCo: Strong ReactionThe Pepsi stock recently showed a strong reaction to the support at $141.52, reinforcing the significance of this level. However, we primarily anticipate that this level will be breached next. During the ongoing magenta wave (5), the price should drop into our beige Target Zone (coordinates: $131.12 – $124.50), which presents potential long-entry opportunities. We primarily expect the beige wave a to conclude within this Zone. But if the stock instead breaks above the resistance at $165.13 (probability: 31%), this will confirm that the low of the beige wave alt.a was settled prematurely.
VeChain: Down AgainAfter a brief recovery, VeChain is trending lower once more. The low of the orange wave ii from early February is approaching but shouldn’t be undercut for the structure of the orange impulse wave iii to remain intact. Soon, we expect a decisive and sustained breakout of this wave iii above the resistance at $0.08. As a mid-term target, the entire orange five-wave sequence should ultimately complete the blue wave (iii).
Coinbase: Brief BreakoutCoinbase’s positive earnings initially served as a catalyst for a brief breakout from the previously established range, with shareholders enjoying a nearly 16% gain. However, the euphoria was short-lived, and the stock quickly retreated. We attribute the current fluctuation to the blue wave (v), which should provide further increases and ultimately complete the larger magenta wave above the resistance at $343.92. Adjustments to our wave count will only be necessary if the price falls below the support at $224 (probability: 33%).
Ripple: Short-term Sell-offs ExpectedRipple’s recent upward push didn’t prove to be sustainable. Anyway, we primarily anticipate another significant sell-off, which should drive the price down into our magenta Target Zone between $1.69 and $1. These declines should allow the corresponding corrective wave (4) to establish a proper low. Only after this bottom has been settled do we reckon with the extended rise of the magenta wave (5), which should target new all-time highs beyond the $3.39 resistance. If XRP breaks above this green level sooner than primarily expected, the magenta wave alt.(5) will begin prematurely. Under this 33% likely alternative scenario, the magenta wave alt.(4) would have already concluded with the February 3 low, and our magenta Target Zone wouldn’t be reached.
Boeing: More RoomBoeing recently climbed higher, and we still grant the magenta wave slightly more room on the upside. However, this corrective upward movement should come to an end below the resistance at $197.20 and transition into the sell-off phase of the same-colored wave . This movement, in turn, should complete the overarching turquoise wave 2 while remaining above the support at $137.03. Afterward, the price should surge beyond the resistance at $267.54, allowing the larger magenta wave (1) to conclude. On the other hand, we see a 30% chance that Boeing will form a fresh low below the $137.03 mark during the green wave alt. .
Coca-Cola: High in Sight?!Coca-Cola has gained around 9% over the past two weeks and should now be approaching the high of the turquoise wave 4. As soon as this top is established (below the resistance at $70.74), we expect sell-offs down to the forecast low of wave (A) in magenta below the support at $60.62. However, if the stock breaks above the resistances at $70.74 and $73.53 during its current upward move, we will consider wave alt.(A) in magenta as complete. In this scenario, the subsequent wave alt.(B) would already be underway, aiming for a high within our beige Target Zone between $75.32 and $80.36 (probability: 39%).
Cloudflare: ProgressCloudflare has demonstrated impressive upward pressure, surging more than 40% in just a few days. In response, we now consider waves 3 and 4 in green as finished and locate the stock in the final stretch of this impulse move, which should ultimately complete the orange wave iii. Given that key expansion levels have already been reached, we expect the wave iii high to form soon. Afterward, we anticipate a sharp wave iv correction, with downside potential toward the $122.68 support.
Hedera Hashgraph: Target Zone AwaitsFollowing the recent sharp sell-off and the immediate rebound, Hedera Hashgraph’s HBAR has stabilized just above $0.20. Currently, the coin is attempting a small breakout to the upside. If HBAR manages to surpass the $0.39 resistance at this stage, the next impulsive move of the green wave alt. will begin earlier than primarily expected (33% likely). In our primary scenario, however, the price should still drop into our beige long-entry Target Zone between $0.17 and $0.08. There, the low of the green correction wave should be settled before wave can advance beyond $0.39.
Qualcomm: Target Zone Active!QCOM is still trading outside our blue Target Zone, which spans from $159.57 to $121.52. While the stock has fulfilled the technical minimum requirement for the blue wave (IV) by reaching this range, we primarily expect further sell-offs and lower lows before the correction is complete. A premature breakout will only be confirmed if the price sustainably surpasses the $182.08 mark (37% likely).