Avalanche: Take a dive!AVAX continued to head toward our turquoise Target Zone (between $29.30 and $17.48). We expect a dive into this range before the low of the turquoise wave 2 is placed. Subsequently, the coin should turn around and rally above the resistance at $49.95. Should this level be broken earlier (33% likely), we will have to locate AVAX in the turquoise wave alt.3.
Waveanalyses
Ripple: SlumpedXRP slumped again last week. As before, we primarily expect a breakout to the downside. The coin should slide below the support at $0.2874 before it completes the magenta wave (c) and thus the blue wave (v). Only then should there be a trend reversal and a strong upward impulse. Should the price rise above the resistance at $0.9479 earlier, this will trigger our 37% probable alternative scenario. In this case, the magenta-colored wave alt.(d) is already underway.
Disney: Sitting on EdgeDisney is currently sitting on the upper edge of our magenta Target Zone (coordinates: $101.24 – $88.36). We anticipate a bullish trend reversal out of this Zone, but primarily, we still think wave (2) must dive a little deeper into this price range before the trend reversal can be initiated. However, there is a 35% chance that wave alt.(2) has bottomed out already, which will be confirmed if the resistance at $110.62 is surpassed.
Philip Morris: New Motivation!Philip Morris has gained new motivation, stretching visibly higher in its chart. Still, the price has more upward distance to cover before reaching our turquoise Target Zone between $119.47 and $123.80. Once the top of the turquoise wave B has been established there, the stock should sell off below the support at $82.95 and, afterward, into our green Target Zone between $77.61 and $62.42. The low of the green wave should then initiate a bullish trend reversal. However, we consider it 35% likely that the green wave alt. has already been finished. In this case, PM would surpass our turquoise Target Zone.
Honeywell: Nearly There!Honeywell almost made it to the resistance at $210.61, which it should overcome as part of the current magenta wave (3). However, there is still a 32% chance that the price will pull back down into our magenta Target Zone between $188.24 and $180.93. This short-term bearish alternative scenario will be triggered if HON drops below the support at $189.66 before reaching a new high.
Caterpillar: Digging DeeperOur forecast for Caterpillar suggests that the green wave is currently being developed. We reckon with further price drops in the short term before the beige wave IV can conclude. The pending low should then initiate a trend reversal, which should enable an upward move above $402.16. However, in the context of our 35% probable alternative scenario, the trend would reverse earlier. In this case, the beige wave alt.III would form a new high above $402.16.
Starbucks: Wide Awake?Starbucks has recently completed its dark green wave in our Target Zone (between $86.38 and $68.39) and should now be wide awake and ready for renewed rises above $89.73. The price has already worked its way upward step by step. However, we consider it 37% likely that SBUX will breach the bottom of our Zone to head for another corrective low.
S&P 500: Already reached the summit?According to our expectations, the overarching wave (1) in magenta should extend to a new record high. Only after this impulse do we anticipate an extended wave (2) correction. However, please note our alternative scenario (38% likely). This option will be triggered if the key 4964 level is breached and implies that the price is already in the correction.
Fantom: Ready or not?FTM fell back to the upper edge of our magenta Target Zone ($0.7680 – $0.5047) last week and ran sideways above this level. Primarily, we continue to grant the coin the opportunity for a deeper dive into our range in order to reject the low of the magenta wave . Only then should it turn around and rise above the resistance at $1.22. Should this level be exceeded earlier (37% likely), however, we will have to place the price in this uptrend now.
Hang Seng Index: Home Stretch 🏁The HSI has risen slightly since Friday, which we interpret as part of the internal substructure of the turquoise wave 4. We therefore expect further sell-offs. However, it is not far to our turquoise Target Zone between 18,341 and 17,899 points. Within this range, the index should place the low and turn upwards. Subsequently, a determined rise above the resistance at 19,772 points is on the agenda, which completes the magenta-colored wave (1). Accordingly, long positions could be opened within the Zone, with stops placed around 1% below the lower edge. Should the price fall significantly below the lower edge, this will set in motion our 38% probable alternative scenario, which implies further setbacks with the magenta wave alt.(ii).
Ethereum (ETH): Strategic Entries and Potential DropsFor Ethereum, we're observing a chart pattern that has developed a weak divergence, and we believe it is now correcting wo the end of Wave 4 of Wave (3). We plan to place multiple entries; our first entry was at the upper range of the Wave 4 target area around $3200. However, the price has continued to decline. We are now looking to DCA and make a second entry at $2600, with a final entry in our worst-case scenario at $2277. We suspect there might be further downside potential, but the extent is uncertain, and we intend to buy additional spots. Those already in from the first entry can choose to hold or buy more—this is on yourself. Given the expected market weakness, there could be opportunities to establish substantial long-term spot positions.
Upon examining the annual VWAP, we're observing a scenario where the 2021 VAH is acting as a current resistance level. We briefly surpassed this level but quickly fell below it again. We believe there could be good entry opportunities in the area between the 2021 VWAP and the 2022 VAH, which closely align around $2,500 to $2,450. Below this, the next significant level could be the 2023 VAH around $2,000, indicating a substantial gap in the middle. This will be elaborated further in subsequent sections of our analysis.
However, this setup on the larger chart presents a probable scenario, yet we're also considering managing our positions above this range as shown above. The 61,8% Fibonacci retracement is still the second entry target for us.
12H
On the quarterly VWAP, we observe that the VWAP from Q4 2021 acted as resistance at exactly $4,100. Since then, we've experienced a downward trend and identified several levels acting as resistance or support. Currently, we're situated right at the 2022 Q1VWAP and the 2021 Q3VWAP, which could provide enough support to push us above the $3,000 mark. Ideally, surpassing the $3,200 mark would be beneficial, but we perceive this as challenging since the current quarter's VWAP is likely to act as resistance around $3,200. We think it's possible we might revisit the levels of the 2021 Q2VWAP to the 2024 Q1VAL, ranging between $2,670 and $2,426. While we don't anticipate falling much below these levels, it's not outside the realm of possibility. These remain our critical levels for now.
4H
Considering the monthly VWAP, there's a scenario where we might see an upward push toward the Previous Monthly VAL, given that the February VWAP has acted as support three times already. This aligns with the desire to see Ethereum exceed $3,200, which would surpass both the February VWAP high and the Previous Monthly VWAP. Achieving and maintaining a position above this level is crucial for a sustained upward move.
If we fail to reclaim and hold this level, it's plausible that Ethereum could revisit lower levels, potentially down to the February VAL around $2,500. Holding above the February VWAP is vital; otherwise, we might see a retracement to these lower support levels.
Gold: Do not slacken! 🥱Gold could not yet gain significantly more upward momentum. Therefore, we still consider it 40% likely that the precious metal will drop directly below the support at $2285, thus confirming an already established high of the turquoise wave alt.B. In this case, our turquoise Target Zone would not be reached anymore. Primarily, however, we stick to our expectation that Gold will rise into our turquoise Zone between $2510 and $2631 to place the top of the regular wave B there.
Ethereum: Ready or Not? ⌛In the Ethereum Chart, our alternative scenario, which will be activated on a break above $4091, now carries a high probability of 42%. However, as long as the price remains below this level, we must continue to expect a descent into our green Target Zone (between $2807 and $1813) first.
Bitcoin: So close 🤏Bitcoin established a new local high yesterday morning at $71,281 before retreating slightly lower. Despite the recent price increases, we must primarily continue to assume that the price will once again sell off into our green Target Zone ($58,655 - $47,012). Once the low of wave 4, which is also in green, is placed there, we see the price sustainably surpassing the resistance at $73,462 and thus reaching new all-time highs. However, our alternative, which calls for a direct move above this mark carries a probability of 48%. In this case, the low of the interim correction will already have been set with the last dip into our Zone.
Airbnb: Downhill 🏂Airbnb shares should approach our turquoise Target Zone between $129.45 and $106.12 before placing the low of the magenta wave (2) there. Subsequently, it should turn around and rise above the resistance at $170.05. Should the price exceed this resistance now (33% likely), we will already see it in the magenta-colored wave alt. (3).
OIH: One Last Climb 🧗The OIH is currently working on green wave 2, which should extend to our same-colored Target Zone (between $335.63 and $353.32). Within this range, the price should complete a reversal and then gradually trend downwards. This Zone can therefore be used to open any short trades. Stops could be placed 1% above the zone. The end of the orange wave III should only be reached below the support at $250.69.
Cardano: Bottom Formation? 🌱Theoretically, the current sideways movement could already be a bottom formation, meaning that the price will soon take off to the upside. However, we will only be convinced of this scenario (25% likely) if the resistance at $0.81 is breached. Primarily, we believe that there should be a setback before the low of magenta wave (ii) is placed.
Bitcoin: Ready or not? 🤔The price of Bitcoin is currently making another attempt to rise. However, we are sticking to our primary assumption that our same-colored Target Zone (coordinates: $58,655 - $47,012) should be reached first as part of the green wave 4. As soon as the low is established, the price should then rise above the resistance at $73,462. If this level is exceeded earlier, we will have to locate the price in the green wave alt. 5 now.
S&P500: Breather 😮💨The momentum in the S&P500 chart slowed down yesterday. With a view to the upper price target, however, there should still be room for further expansion in the current phase of the turquoise wave 5. Once the high has been placed, a larger corrective movement is on the cards. Please note our alternative scenario (38% probable). This option suggests the possibility of an already intact wave-2 sell-off. This scenario will be activated if the price falls below the support level of 4964 points.
Aurora: Almost there 🎯Aurora shares have almost reached our turquoise Target Zone, which is located between C$8.39 and C$5.63. We primarily assume that this Zone should be approached next in the course of the current wave C. The low of wave C should also mark the end of the higher-level wave (2) in magenta, which will then clear the way for the subsequent wave (3).
Polkadot: Test of Strength 💪DOT experienced a decline last week. However, we consider this to be primarily part of the internal substructure of the orange wave (iii), which should extend well above the resistance at $8.50. In the short term, further setbacks to our orange Target Zone (between $4.85 and $6.58) are theoretically possible, which is why we are keeping this range active.