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Wave Analysis

NOVO - 23% weight loss causes 23% price dropHead and Shoulders pattern complete, price drops from $148 to sub $80. The drop from the head of the pattern is 23%, we should now be in Wave 5 where the final drop is 23%. Cagrisema fat loss is 23% (below expectation of 25%). Wall St trims 23% off the stock price. Largest sell volume seen in the stock, going into the oversold territory - 19 RSI on Daily, most oversold it's been in over a decade. Possible support from the following confluence: 200 Week EMA, Golden Fibonacci pocket 0.618, possible end of 5th wave. Time to DCA, from $78 down to $58, for a 3-5 year hold. Not financial advice
NYSE:NVOLong
by NoFOMO_
Gold Trend Analysis and StrategiesGold bottomed out and rebounded on Friday, forming a strong breakthrough to test the high point of 2631, and closed above the 2620 mark. The daily line ended the weak and volatile downward structure in the first half of last week. At present, the MA10 daily moving average is suppressed at the 2646 line, and the 5-day moving average is at the 2614 line. The price is running in the middle and lower track of the Bollinger band. The short-term four-hour moving average opened upward and re-stood on the middle track of the Bollinger band. After the intraday rhythm correction, go long at low prices and be bullish! Gold was not strong after the opening of the Asian session. It is too early to say that gold has reversed now. Gold has begun to fluctuate. Gold has not had a unilateral market for the time being. Gold sells high and buys low at the beginning of the week. Pay attention to the resistance of last Friday's high point 2632 on the top of gold. If it cannot break through, then gold will continue to be short under pressure at 2632 in the short term. If it breaks through 2632, gold will pay attention to the resistance near 2650. Pay attention to the support of the 2600 line on the bottom first. If gold does not break 2600, then gold can go long in the short term to see a rebound. First support: 2612, second support: 2600, third support: 2587 First resistance: 2632, second resistance: 2646, third resistance: 2658 Trading strategy: BUY: 2605-2608 SELL: 2632-2635
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jun-GoldAnalyst
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) About To Go Down - TIMBER!📉 Overview: The S&P 500 (SPY) is signaling a bearish reversal with technical and momentum indicators aligning for a potential decline. A completed 5th wave top, coupled with a breakdown from the bearish wedge, hints at deeper corrections in the coming sessions. 📊 Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave Count: SPY has likely completed its 5th wave top, marking the end of the bullish cycle. Bearish Wedge Breakout: Price has decisively broken below the rising wedge's trendline, a historically reliable bearish signal. Momentum Indicators: - RSI Divergence: Clear bearish divergence as price created higher highs while RSI formed lower highs. - MACD: Loss of upward momentum, with the MACD histogram turning negative. Fibonacci Targets: - Retracement Zone (B): $598–$606 (61.8%–88% retracement of recent decline). - Target 1 (C): $570.35 (1.0 Fibonacci extension). - Target 2 (C): $559.67–$553.07 (1.382–1.618 Fibonacci extension). 🌐 Macro Sentiment: Interest Rate Concerns: Continued hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could weigh on equities, particularly as valuations remain elevated. Economic Slowdown: Weakening macroeconomic data and potential earnings downgrades in early 2025 could amplify selling pressure. Seasonality and Risk-Off Trends: End-of-year profit-taking and increased geopolitical risks may favor defensive positions. ⚡ Trade Plan: - Short Zone: $598–$606 (retracement of recent sell-off). - Stop-Loss: $606.82 – Above the 88% Fibonacci retracement and resistance. Targets: - Target 1: $570.35 (solid risk-reward). - Target 2: $553.07 (extended move aligning with wedge breakdown projection). 🔍 Considerations: Monitor economic data, including inflation, GDP growth, and job numbers, for additional confirmation. Watch for further MACD weakness and RSI failing to reclaim bullish momentum levels. Do you think SPY will see a sharper correction, or are bulls likely to regain control? Share your insights! 🚨📊
AMEX:SPYShort
by MrStockWhale
1
Prepare to BUY Spot FORTHUSDT on the D1 Cycle 🌟 Position Yourself for the Next Big Move with FORTHUSDT! 🌟 🌍 Market Overview: FORTHUSDT is building strong bullish momentum on the D1 timeframe, presenting a promising opportunity for significant gains in the upcoming cycle. 📊 Trade Plan: 📌 Entry: $5.3 - $6 – Key accumulation range for a high-reward setup. 🎯 Target: x2 to x3 – Aiming for exponential returns as the trend develops. ⏳ Hold Time: Up to 2 weeks – A mid-term strategy aligning with the D1 cycle. 🔍 Strategy Insights: Leveraging my custom indicator RainBow MG3, this setup has been flagged as a high-probability trade. Current market dynamics and volume trends suggest potential for a strong breakout. 🚀 Next Steps: 💬 Reach out if you need additional guidance or insights into the strategy! 💡 Note: This is not financial advice. Always DYOR before making any trading decisions. 🔥 FORTHUSDT is gearing up for a major move – Are you ready to capitalize? 🔥
BINANCE:FORTHUSDLong
by rainbow_sniper
Gold price trend analysisGold daily line maintains a short structure, and the continued rise of the US dollar index has a certain negative impact on the gold and silver markets. The daily line closed with a long upper shadow and a small positive, and the short-term chart four-hour roller coaster price continued to move down along the high and low points of the MA10-day moving average, and the price continued to run along the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands. The hourly chart Bollinger Bands opened downward, and the RSI indicator ran below the middle axis. Today's trading ideas remain unchanged, mainly rebounding high and high, and low-multiple short-term auxiliary. Gold 1-hour moving average is still short-term divergent arrangement, without any signs of turning, and there is still room for gold to go down. Gold did not stand firm at 2600 to close, and continued to sell at highs below 2613 today! First support: 2582, second support: 2572, third support: 2563 First resistance: 2605, second resistance: 2613, third resistance: 2628 Trading strategy: BUY:2583-2585 SELL:2611-2613
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Jun-GoldAnalyst
Market SnapshotMUST READ!!!! All credits to Avi Gilburt and his team www.elliottwavetrader.net “Observers’ job, as they see it, is simply to identify which external events caused whatever price changes occur. When news seems to coincide sensibly with market movement, they presume a causal relationship. When news doesn’t fit, they attempt to devise a cause-and-effect structure to make it fit. When they cannot even devise a plausible way to twist the news into justifying market action, they chalk up the market moves to “psychology,” which means that, despite a plethora of news and numerous inventive ways to interpret it, their imaginations aren’t prodigious enough to concoct a credible causal story. Most of the time it is easy for observers to believe in news causality. Financial markets fluctuate constantly, and news comes out constantly, and sometimes the two elements coincide well enough to reinforce commentators’ mental bias towards mechanical cause and effect. When news and the market fail to coincide, they shrug and disregard the inconsistency. Those operating under the mechanics paradigm in finance never seem to see or care that these glaring anomalies exist.”- Robert Prechter
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
1
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: I know it’s an ugly chart, bear with me. Gold spent 2020 - 2024 inside a 570 point range and started the recent bull trend with the breakout in 2024-03. Since then Gold has made 30%, which is more than unusual to say the least. From 2018 to 2020 it made 50% but only because it lost 36% from 2011 to 2018. Market is much less obvious on higher time frames than I’d like. Both sides have reasonable arguments going for them. For bulls it’s that the bull trend is ongoing while bears could see the leg down from 2826 down to 2566 as the first in the new bear trend. Bulls would like a third leg up which could lead to 3000. Both are valid and that is why it’s most likely that the market will move sideways rather than trend big time to either direction. My favorite path forward would be a trend down to 2300 and then sideways inside a big range 2300 - 2600. current market cycle: Bull trend is ongoing until bears can close consecutive weekly bars below the 20ema, which is at 2640 right now. Could the new bear trend have started with W1 from 2826 down to 2566? Yes. Both can be valid at the same time. key levels for 2025: 2500 - 3000 (if 2500 breaks, 2300 would be the next big target below) bull case: Bulls want a W5 up to 3000. Easy as pie is that read and seeing it on the chart. Hard part, as always, is giving probabilities to it and as of now, I won’t make any. The market is in balance around 2650 and I would need prices above 2760 or below 2560 to have a stronger opinion about it. That’s short but all I have to write about it for now. Can’t make stuff up where there is none. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Bears see the move down from the ath as a W1 of the new bear trend which could lead down to my biggest bear goal for 2025 at 2200ish. Here are the big bear targets in order. First is the 50% retracement of the recent bull trend at 2500. It’s also the breakout price from the W1 high and the old ath from 2011-08. Second bigger target would be 2300 which is a measured move down from the bearish W1 from the ath, the 2023-05 high (breakout-retest) and it would close the big bull gap the market left behind. Third and final target, which is the most unreasonable one for now, is 2200 which is the 50% retracement from the whole bull trend since 2018. Invalidation is above 3050. short term: Neutral. Lower highs and higher lows. Market is in a triangle again and in balance around 2650. medium-long term: Will only give one above 2760 or below 2560. current swing trade: None
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
BTC POSSIBLE BUYThe market is currently testing the current Weekly Support area. Based on Daily TF, there is a hammer candle close. On the 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern. We could see BUYERS coming in strong should the current level hold. Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by WiLLProsperForex
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: For the sp500 the start of the bull trend is a bit less clear as for dax. My take is that it started with the 2023-10 low and before that was still the big trading range the main pattern. Does it matter if my wave thesis is off for W1 or where W4 ended? I don’t think it does. My targets (obvious magnets) would still be the same. We have a bull trend that went up a pretty perfect measured move from the Covid low to the 2023-10 low. This will be my biggest target for 2025. We then have a perfect magnet down to the previous ath from 2022-01 at 5300, which is the 50% retracement of the bull trend from 2023-10 to the ath. 5300 will be the first and most important target for the bears in the medium-term. Depending on how we get there, we can estimate on if and how we could get down to 4400. As of now, it is unlikely that we will see 4400 in 2025. Something bigger has to happen and markets need to change drastically. A liquidity event would certainly help. current market cycle: Bull trend from 2023-10 has likely ended already and we are transitioning into a trading range or new bear trend. By the end of January we will know for sure what it will be. key levels for 2025: 5000 - 6200 bull case: Since the bigger western indexes are highly correlated, many arguments for them are the same. Past two years gave the bulls 55+% in gains while the biggest pull-back was 10% in 2024-08. The bulls have made money buying the weekly 20ema for a year and they don’t want to stop because this time it surely is different and valuations are boomer metrics for poor people who did not get in on the latest fartcoin pump. I don’t have anything more to say in this section. Invalidation is below 4400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 4000 again. bear case: Long ongoing climactic bull trend and every new high got smaller. Bears know the bulls have to take profit at some point, especially after a prolonged period without pull-backs. Once the profit taking get’s going, this will accelerate downwards to find bigger support. The first target for the bears is a daily close below 5900 and then a test of the nearest bull trend line around 5800. We can only expect more sideways once we get there. When bears finally break it, 5500 is the next obvious magnet and we then have only one more big bull trend line left, which is the one from the Covid lows. As mentioned above, the 50% retracement for this trend is as perfect as it get’s the previous ath near 5300 and for now this will be my biggest target to hit in 2025. Again, depending on how we get there, we can either estimate lower targets or expect the market to move sideways in a bigger range. Invalidation is above 6300. short term: Same argument for year end rally as for dax. Highest I can see this going for 6250 (give or take) and then we will test the first bull trend line around 5800 over the next weeks. 5500 in Q1 is my estimate as of now. medium-long term: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None but same argument as for dax. Short ETF until we hit 5300 is reasonable.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
1