SPX & ETH: Market Manipulation or Final Pump Before Dump?Just as the market shows a strong move up — with SPX hitting 0.5169 and ETH reclaiming 1813 — we receive breaking news:
🇨🇳 China will impose an additional 34% tariff on U.S. goods.
Combined with upcoming key events — Non-Farm Payrolls , Unemployment Rate , and Powell's Speech — this could trigger a dramatic shift in sentiment.
Technical clues:
• SPX drops sharply after touching the upper Bollinger Band;
• ETH also rejects resistance;
• RSI overheated (above 66);
• Weak institutional demand (Coinbase Premium barely positive);
• Selling pressure increasing with higher volume.
Conclusion: I’m staying out for now. This move could be a trap — a setup to lure in retail buyers before major volatility. Better safe than sorry.
Patience > FOMO.
Wave Analysis
SPX + ETH — Pre-NFP Pullback or Trap?Both SPX and ETH showed a strong rally, but now we’re seeing early signs of rejection:
• SPX dropped sharply from 0.5169 to 0.4861 (≈ -6%), printing a bearish candle at the top of the Bollinger band.
• ETH follows with a rejection near the upper band too.
• RSI on both charts was above 57 — momentum was hot, but likely overextended.
• Coinbase Premium still barely positive at +2.78 — no strong institutional demand behind the rally.
• Volumes on the sell candle spike — smart money unloading?
Timing matters: All this happens just 2 hours before major economic data (NFP + Unemployment) and a Fed speech.
My View: This smells like a setup to trap late buyers. No long positions until after the news drops. I’d rather miss a few % than get caught in algo-driven volatility.
Protect capital first. Patience wins.
KEEP TRADING SIMPLE - YMAGGood Morning,
YMAG is a great ETF to have in your portfolio. Especially if you can get it on a massive discount. This is one that you would hold long term and collect dividends from to help grow your portfolio and help manage and losses you may take.
Ideally I would want dividend stocks to be long term - I try to find them every time the market drops and look to get the early so I not only profit off the dividends but also the stock growth.
Right now the market is moving up but we will have a lot of work to do until we know where its going. For now this will be a great swing trade once we confirm the support touch today.
Thanks
KEEP TRADING SIMPLE - BTCGood Morning,
Hope all is well. BTC also running the bullish pattern that the rest of the crypto market is. Trend change is in site on the daily which is what I use to plan my swing trades. I use the hourly for entries and exits.
Again waiting for confirmation on the hourly support to place my next swing trade.
Thanks!
DISNEY for sale?Under the 1974 trend line there’s absolutely no bullish argument. Already retraced a 62% of the whole upside movement since the 70’s. Once too big to fall, now maybe it’s a too big to move company. I am aware of the whole books to market ratio, but still see it as a value trap: over exposed to Asia and Europe, streaming isn’t going that well, parks suffering from slowing demand caused by inflation…
Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX?Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX?
S&P 1D Technical and Fundamental Analysis;
This structure, which looks like an ordinary decline on the SPX daily chart ... in fact, we can say that it carries the pieces of a big scenario that develops synchronously both technically and fundamentally.
Let me explain now;
5 December 2024 was not just a breaking point. Because Trump's statements after taking the presidency for the second time, especially the message that ‘customs walls may rise’ had become clear.
In the same week, the uptrend in SPX quickly weakened and declined as the FED gave the message ‘Interest rate cut is not imminent’.
From here, Bullish Sharq started the formation of harmonic formation.
Now comes the week of 1 May.
- FED's interest rate decision,
- Trump's budget plan,
- And one of the critical macro thresholds where company balance sheets are announced.
While everything is going well so far, if we take into account that the chart will also touch a strong trend line, it may mean ‘either a bounce or a collapse from here’.
Because the price in the market does not just move, it looks for reasons .
I would also like to ask you here;
What will greet the market when this date comes?
Harsh interest rate rhetoric?
Trump's aggressive economic agenda?
Or a recovery supported by positive balance sheets?
CHFJPY Will Go Down! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for CHFJPY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 171.221.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 169.475 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
GOLD/XAUUSD SWING UPDATESHello folks, Gold are on a trend right now. Waiting for this zone for shorts? 3180 might be the high or 3200.
The Initial targets at 3066 zone.
This idea base on my previous idea on fibonacci, Full updates once price goes 3066 zone.
Idea on the new highs maybe later on High impact news.
The idea here is short.
Trade at your own risk.
Follow for more.
I will update once this zones mitigated. Good luck! pewwpeww
LTC - Bulls Getting Ready!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 Long-term, LTC has been overall bullish, trading within the rising channel marked in red.
📍 As it retests the lower bound of the channel — perfectly intersecting with the blue support—I will be looking for medium-term longs.
🚀 For the bulls to take over long-term and initiate the next bullish phase, a breakout above the last major high marked in orange at $97 is needed.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
$BTC bullish / bearish uptrend trajectory The BTC is completing its 4th #ElliottWave on the weekly timeframe.
The 1W #MA50 still serves as historical #support, with Trump's #tariffs as a drag.
The optimistic scenario extends the 5th point to ~120K, while a pessimistic scenario expects a #retest of the ~55K support zone of the 200 Moving Average.
DXY reversal, Bullish for BTC, but 50 day chop is likelyGood Sunday, dear friend! I'm scribbling down some ideas I had. It's good to be back home after a week on a job project. TradingView on a phone is awesome, but I definitely prefer a bigger screen.
The chart was not as clean as I wished, but it just tells some history with the correlations between DXY and BTC. For instance:
Q4 2022 - DXY tops (BTC bottoms).
Trend reversal for DXY (BTC corrects ABC after W1 after bear market).
DXY declines to a WCL, BTC soars from 25k to 73k.
In the meantime, as BTC soared, DXY also inclined, which led to an extended correction of 7.5 months. DXY rolled over in June 2025, and there was a 60-day lag before BTC felt the boost from the DXY decline.
This leads us to today. DXY and BTC have gone up together. I believe the last leg up is a consequence of the June - September decline of DXY, and BTC went up with DXY, and BTC is now left to feel the consequences of the DXY upturn. Given DXY (most likely) topped 11 days ago, we might chop for 50 more days before BTC resumes upward.
In the last WCLs, DXY retraces a minimum to 0.786. In this case, the trendline suggests a March timeframe for a low in DXY. History suggests the BTC local top is in when DXY bottoms, or is soon to top in about 2 months.
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to 38.2% Fibo lvl 3050.Dear colleagues, the price has been in an upward movement for quite a long time and I believe .that it is time for a correction in the “2” wave.
I think it is possible that there may be a small update of the maximum of the top of wave “1” to 3176.771, then I expect a correction to the area of 38.2% Fibonacci level 3050.
As usual there are 2 possible entry options:
1) Market entry
2) Entry by pending limit orders, if the price updates the maximum.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!