3.3-day latest gold trading analysis strategy
Gold technical analysis: From the current market perspective, even if gold prices are likely to decline in the short term, we must be wary of weak non-farm payroll data this week or slowing wage growth, which may reignite market expectations for the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts and promote a rebound in gold prices. The short-term resistance target can be moved up to the range of US$2868-2888. If it breaks through US$2900, it is expected to restart the bullish trend. If the negative non-agricultural data will strengthen the Federal Reserve's stance of maintaining high interest rates, gold may be further pressured to test the support of $2,800. After the technical level breaks, short momentum may accelerate and the short-term downside risks will intensify.
From a technical perspective, at the weekly level, the weekly line closed with a large negative line with upper and lower shadows, breaking the 10 consecutive positive lines, completely engulfing the consecutive positive lines of the previous two weeks, which reflects the strength of the bears. Driven by this, it pierces the short-term 5-week moving average and continues to extend downward. Although it releases the momentum of the bears, other periodic indicators still maintain a long arrangement. In addition, the Bollinger Bands remain upward as a whole, and the MACD indicator continues to form a golden cross upward, so the weekly level decline is still a correction for the bulls.
From the daily level, the daily continuous negative pattern allows the gold price to effectively run below the short-term moving average and the Bollinger middle track, and drives the two to turn downward to form suppression respectively. In addition, other periodic indicators maintain a short arrangement, the MACD indicator crosses downward, and the RSI indicator shows sufficient downward potential, so it will be beneficial for the bears to continue to develop. However, the Bollinger Bands have begun to close as a whole, so the overall bearish view at the daily level needs to wait for a high level, and at the same time, we must also beware of a wave of high-level resistance in the gold price at any time.
At the 4-hour level, although gold prices hit a low of 2832 late last Friday and ushered in a rebound, as the price is still running below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands and the short-term 10 moving average, and driving the short-term moving average downward to the 2866-2888 area, other cycle indicators remain unchanged The short positions are arranged, and the overall downward trend of the Bollinger Bands has intensified. However, the fast line of the macd indicator has turned upward, failing to give the short positions downward momentum. The RSI indicator has intentionally strengthened the upward potential above the 30 axis. Therefore, the overall 4-hour level can still see the gold price falling again after the short-term correction.
The 1-hour moving average is still in a dead downward bear arrangement, MACD is an underwater golden cross, and gold bears may not have turned the trend yet. As long as the rebound is not large, there is still room for gold to move downward. This week, gold will focus on the resistance near the moving average of 2877. As long as it is still under pressure and blocked below 2877, gold can still continue to be short. If gold breaks through 2880 strongly, then it is necessary to adjust its thinking. Taken together, in terms of gold's short-term operation today, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends mainly shorting on rebounds, supplemented by longs on callbacks. The upper short-term focus will be on the 2877-2885 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term will focus on the 2855-2850 first-line support.
