Analysis of the latest gold trend on January 22
On Wednesday (January 22), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range at a high level in the Asian session, currently trading around $2,751/ounce. Gold prices rose 1.39% on Tuesday, jumping to a more than two-month high of $2,745.83/ounce and closing at $2,744.59/ounce, supported by a weaker dollar. Under the uncertainty of possible tariffs imposed by US President Trump, the market flocked to safe-haven gold. The U.S. dollar index fell back after its rebound on Tuesday was blocked. It once refreshed a two-week low to 107.86 during the session and closed down 0.12% at 107.94, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. Affected by Trump's tariff threats, investors flocked to safe-haven assets such as gold, and the US dollar's highs and declines, US Treasury yields plummeted, and gold prices soared to their highest point in more than two months. US President Trump also said on Tuesday that he might impose sanctions on Russia if Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. This also provided safe-haven support for gold prices. Trump did not disclose specific details of possible additional sanctions. The United States has imposed severe sanctions on Russia since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Trump said his administration is also looking into sending weapons to Ukraine and said he believes the European Union should do more to support Ukraine. In early Asian trading on Wednesday, Trump said he would impose tariffs on the European Union. Affected by this news, the euro had a short-term dive of about 30 points, and the price of gold did not fluctuate much in the short term, but investors need to pay attention to the further fermentation of market sentiment.
Gold is considered a safe investment in times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, but the policies proposed by Trump are widely seen as inflationary, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time to curb price pressures. It is expected that Trump's extensive trade tariffs will further stimulate inflation and trigger a trade war, which may increase the safe-haven appeal of gold. The market may also be waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the Federal Reserve next week and the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, especially the inflation data. I don't think anyone is expecting the Fed to take any action next week, but will certainly be watching the policy statement closely for hints about the rest of the year. "Analysts say Trump's immigration, tax and tariff policies may boost economic growth but also spur inflation. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady this month but remain vigilant against inflation. According to calculations by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 38 basis points this year and may resume cutting interest rates at the June meeting. There are relatively few economic data on this trading day. Continue to pay attention to Trump-related dynamic news and changes in market sentiment, and pay attention to the Davos Economic Forum and the speech of European Central Bank President Lagarde.
Gold technical analysis: The recent trend of gold has continued to fluctuate and rise, and the high and low points can be switched flexibly. At present, the gold price has once again refreshed the high of 2750 in early Asian trading. Gold has started a new round of rise. The daily positive line of gold closed higher, breaking the recent The upper track of 2725 in the wide range hit another high point this week. As the daily line consolidates, it rises again after pulling Yang. The daily line has further momentum to reach higher levels. Yesterday, it fell back to the lowest level of 2702 and started to rise steadily. In line with expectations of an immediate rise in the Asian market yesterday. It's just that the upside space has been increased after a direct breakthrough. Yesterday, it was also emphasized that the bulls will look further if it breaks through 2725. At the same time, when it is confirmed by stepping back, it will be a second opportunity to enter the long position. The higher closing price on the daily line will drive further short-term gains during the day.
The 4-hour chart is running in the ascending channel. In the strong unilateral market, the middle track of Bollinger Bands moves upward as the critical point for bulls. Combined with the support of breaking the high point of 2726 and the retracement of the 2716 line after breaking the high yesterday, the price started to stabilize for the second time. This is the defensive critical point of the bulls. The strong market will not be stepped on deeply, and the breaking high conversion point of the previous day will not be lost. The bulls will still maintain their momentum. From the perspective of the 1-hour structure, the bullish trend remains good, and the adjustment is also a short-term behavior. The general direction is still continuing to rise, especially after breaking through 2730 US dollars, the European session on Tuesday quickly fell back to below 2720 to complete the top and bottom conversion. The focus after today's retracement is on the position of 2738-2742, which is also the retracement of the previous high point. The European session should also pay attention to the retracement confirmation.
From the perspective of time, since the 21st trading day of gold's rebound from 2583, that is, Monday this week, the change of the market has not been successful, then the next change of the market time node will focus on next Friday, which is the 55th trading day of the rise of 2536. Therefore, in terms of operation, gold is now entering a stage of accelerated rise. Today, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends buying with the trend near 2740, and the upper target is further up to 2765-2770 area!
Taken together, in terms of today's short-term gold operation ideas, our professional and experienced gold analyst team recommends to focus on longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorts on rebounds. The top short-term focus is on the first-line resistance near 2765, and the bottom short-term focus is on the first-line support of 2738-2742.
