Get started

Wave Analysis

AUDUSD Wave Analysis – 27 February 2025 - AUDUSD falling inside wave b - Likely to fall support level 0.6200 AUDUSD currency pair continues to fall inside the b-wave which started earlier from the major resistance level 0.6400 (former strong support from April and August of 2024). The resistance level 0.6400 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from last October. Given the strongly bullish US dollar sentiment and strong daily downtrend, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.6200, the target price for the completion of the active wave b.
Short
by FxProGlobal
The Case for a 76% drop on MSTR: Norms of fib levels in a trend.If you draw a fib from the high to the low of the 2022 drop in MSTR, you'll see we have now completed all of the fibs of this swing. In this post we're going to take a detailed look at two things; 1 - How a trend typically forms heading into a 4.23 extension. 2 - What typically happens at 4.23 extensions. Everything we cover here will be generic rules for trend development. It's equally valid on bull and bear moves (we'll use examples of both) and it can be used on any timeframe. We're going to stick to big charts for this but these same concepts also scale down to day trading. We are going to look at these specific hypothesis'; 1.27 - 1.61 will produce some sort of pullback. The breaking of 1.61 will produce a steady trend to at least 2.20. Around 2.20 - 2.61 there will be some sort of reaction. The move from 2.61 to 4.23 is very strong. 4.23s can mark the end of major moves. These conditions in MSTR are marked into the chart pic. Let me show you another example on a bear trend to get us started. This was the last bull swing before the 2007-2008 reversal. We're using the topping swing for our fib. We can draw this really early as soon as we see the first possible break. We drop to the 1.61 and then we bounce. It looks like a recovery in real time. Then once the 1.61 is broken we drop quickly to the 2.20. Look closely here. The move to the 2.20 isn't the big red candle. There's a wick. That tells us this was a flash event. Crashed to the support, rapid bear trap. Filling our conditions of the expectations of a 1.61 break and the reaction 2.20. The wick candle pullback went to around 1.61 and then there was capitulation when the 2.61 was broken. We get to the the Final Boss of the fibs. The 4.23. There's a head fake under it and then a recovery back over it. And the 2008 crash is over. Want another one? Here's BB. The pattern expressed over a very long time. Full booms and bust. Saw a lot of these patterns in 2021. Imagine if you could have used the same playbook we can observe on the all time BB chart and used the same set of rules to understand all the key parts of the 2021 trend. That'd be weird. Attached is a pic of the real time 2021 mention of fading the BB rally at the 4.23 (just to show this isn't just perfect fitting after the fact). Let's jump back to another low. Here was the BTC low. Or a bull one. What Happens at 4.23 Fibs? Most of the time when 4.23 fibs are hit there is a large correction or a full blown reversal. Cases of 4.23's breaking without retesting the 1.61 - 1.27 (and that's a crash, big move) are rarer. In the times there is a 4.23 breakout, the following trend is usually exceptional. When looking at big instances of failed 4.23s they're usually found around the middle of a bubble or crash (depending on if it's a bull or bear break). It's much more difficult to show examples of the failed ones without being able to zoom in and out a lot, but you can look for them in places like the Nasdaq bubble, NVDA rally and in failure points of uptrends heading into crashes. Almost invariably, the trend goes into a state of hyper performance if the 4.23 is broken. However, if it is not broken - then we're usually going to ultimately end up spiking out the 1.27 fib. Which round trips most of the move. If MSTR is a 4.23 blow off, it's give up most of the gains of the recent rally. That is inside of the bullish perspective. The correction comes to 1.27. If 1.27 fails, then you can end up with that lifetime BB chart. Action around the 4.23 itself is fraught with caveats when it comes to actionable trading. You have to always have the assumption that if you're wrong you're going to be betting against a punishing trend and you have to be risk cautious and quick to get out / plan new levels. It always has to be remembered if wrong, the fade will fail spectacularly. Further complicating things is we really can't be sure what sort of 4.23 head fake we're going to get. There are times we reverse right at the 4.23. Or come up a bit shy of it. Other times we make a nominal head fake that you could have started betting against almost as soon as it got passed the level and it went nothing but well for you. Then there are the super blow offs. BB was somewhere in the range of 20 - 25% blow off. I remember this well (I'd shorted the 4.23 touch) it only lasted an exceptionally brief amount of time and was ultimately the Mother of all wicks but if I'd be fully exposed to all that price move - wouldn't have mattered. I'd probably have got nailed before it. When it comes to the actual tactical betting on a 4.23 reversal, it's tricky. The core underlying theory of the 4.23 decision is a simple binary one though. Usually when the 4.23 is hit we're going to head into hyper trend conditions. These can be higher (and this is hard to quantify targets for with fibs) or they can be crashes (which we can usually roadmap with the 1.61 - 2.20 - 4.23 thing). Extremely polarizing level here. Either all fib bases bear cases are entirely annulled for the foreseeable future or a drop of about 75% is setting up. The 4.23 pullback/reversal is the far more common outcome. ==== Bonus doom posting:
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by holeyprofit
17
Gold might experience a price correction in the upcoming week!!!Hi Everyone, Gold may experience a price correction in the upcoming week. Although there are no concerning signals in the trend for the long term, the daily chart suggests that the RSI cannot fail the divergence. It appears that a retest of the 50 areas (in RSI) is likely, so we might see a correction of at least $100. First target $2838 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. CAPITALCOM:GOLD CAPITALCOM:GOLD TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
TVC:GOLDShort
by S_INV28
HOOKUSDT Breakdown Incoming? Key Signals Point to Bearish Move!Yello, Paradisers! Is HOOKUSDT gearing up for a major drop? The current structure suggests a strong probability for further downside as the price follows a triple three-wave pattern within a descending channel. 💎HOOKUSDT recently faced strong resistance from multiple confluences: 50 EMA rejection, Key resistance zone, Descending channel’s trendline, Formation of an "M" pattern. These factors increase the likelihood of a wave Z move downward. However, for confirmation, we need a clear breakdown of the support level with a candle close below it and high volume. 💎The broader crypto market also leans bearish, but waiting for the actual breakdown will further strengthen our probability of a successful trade. 💎Invalidation? If the price bounces and closes candle above the resistance zone, the bearish outlook gets invalidated. In that case, it’s smarter to stay patient and wait for a stronger setup. 🎖 Discipline and patience are key, Paradisers! The market always rewards those who wait for the highest-probability trades. Stay sharp! MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Short
by MyCryptoParadise
1
GOLD (XAU/USD)—$2,975 HIGH SPARKS BUZZGOLD (XAU/USD)—$2,975 HIGH SPARKS BUZZ (1/9) Good afternoon, TradingView! Gold (XAU/USD) hit $ 2,975 in Feb ‘25, up 5-7% YTD 🌍 2024’s 26-27% gain shines—here’s the breakdown. (2/9) – PRICE RISE • 2024 Gain: 26-27%, best since 2010 📈 • 2025 YTD: 2,955-2,975, 5-7% up 💡 • Feb 24: +0.52% to new high 🌞 Gold’s climb, safe-haven rules. (3/9) – MARKET MOVES • Trade Fear: Tariffs spark inflows 🌟 • FASB: Coinbase tie lifts mood 🚗 • Dip: $ 2,940 Feb 25, profit takes 📊 Gold’s humming, tension fuels it. (4/9) – SECTOR SNAP • Price: 2,940-2,875, $ 20T+ cap 🌍 • Vs Silver: Outpaces XAG’s wobble 💪 • Forecasts: UBS $ 3,200—value gap? 📉 Gold’s steady, peers falter. (5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS • Fed: High rates cap upside ⚠️ • USD: Tariff boost stings 🔒 • Profit Takes: -1.27% Feb 25 🐻 Gold’s firm, but headwinds nip. (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS • Gain: 26-27% ‘24—tough haul 💪 • Demand: Banks, ETFs pile in 🏋️ • Hedge: 4.3% inflation shield 🌱 Gold’s gritty, crisis-proof. (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES • Weaknesses: No yield, USD bite 🙈 • Opportunities: Tariffs, $ 3,200 zing 🌏 Can gold vault past the snags? (8/9) – Gold’s $ 2,975 peak, your view? 1️⃣ Bullish, $ 3,200+ soon 😎 2️⃣ Neutral, Holds, risks linger 🤷 3️⃣ Bearish, $ 2,800 dip looms 😕 Vote below! 🗳️👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY Gold’s $ 2,975 Feb high and 26% ‘24 stack up, safe-haven star Trade fears lift, risks loom, gem or pause?
TVC:GOLDLong
by DCAChampion
Tesla - Elon Is Playing The Charts!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is perfectly respecting structure: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Two months ago Tesla perfectly retested the previous all time high resistance and closed with a massive rejection wick. This means that a correction - which is currently happening - is expected and after the bullish break and retest, we will then finally see new all time highs. Levels to watch: $280, $400 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by basictradingtv
10
Aris Water (ARIS): Water Management Drives Market GrowthAris Water Solutions, Inc. (ARIS) is a leading environmental services company specializing in water recycling and infrastructure solutions for the energy industry. By providing sustainable water management, Aris helps oil and gas producers reduce their environmental footprint and optimize water usage. As industries focus more on sustainability and regulatory compliance, Aris continues to expand its operations, making it a key player in water conservation and management. The stock chart recently displayed a confirmation bar with rising volume, pushing the price into the momentum zone, which occurs when it moves above the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This signals strong investor confidence and suggests the potential for continued upside as buying interest strengthens. Using a trailing stop helps traders secure profits while managing risk. By setting stops based on Fibonacci levels, traders can stay in the trade as long as the stock trends higher while protecting gains if momentum slows. This approach prevents early exits while ensuring profits are locked in if the stock reverses.
NYSE:ARISLong
by traderspro_charts
The next Intel or the next Nvidia?Neither, AMD has it's own path with destiny. The cyclical nature of semiconductors makes this an interesting stock to analyse through TA. The fundamentals remain strong, whilst they are clearly behind Nvidia and Broadcom, there's also closely following behind and have a far smaller market cap. In a risk on mode, I think this offers far better upside than a 3 trillion dollar Nvidia stock. It looks like much of Nvidia's stock price has been baked in the revenue growth into the stock price. Not even an earnings beat was enough to satisfy investors. People are panicking, 10 year yields are dropping, the market is in freakout mode. Meanwhile, AMD remains bearish, there is no doubt about that. The question is where is the bottom? I have a very strong buy zone here at $91-100. I think the risk to reward here is quite compelling. Using stop losses to minimise potential capitulation, risk management would have saved a lot of headache for anyone who has purchased since 06/03/24, almost a year ago, as they are down on their position and were better taking a small calculated loss. Not financial advice, do what's best for you.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by NoFOMO_
XRP USDT💰 #XRP Market Outlook 🚀 CRYPTOCAP:XRP is currently in a retracement phase, testing key Fibonacci levels before a potential reversal. 📉 Support Zone: $1.2578 (Key area for a strong bounce) 📈 Potential Targets: First Target: $3.0110 Final Target: $4.2243 If CRYPTOCAP:XRP holds above the 1.2578 support zone, we could see a massive recovery leading to a bullish breakout. The Fibonacci 0.786 retracement level suggests a strong long entry opportunity at this level. 🔍 Key Confirmation: Watch for a strong bounce from this level, which could trigger a rally toward $3+ and beyond! 🚀🔥 #Ripple #XRPArmy #BullishXRP
Long
by VIPROSE
btc"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟 We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎 Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫 Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭 Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
Long
by Golden_candle
PFE 1H Long Swing Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade + long impulse + SOS level + support level + 1/2 correction + biggest volumed Sp Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit before 1/2 of the Month Expandable to 1/2 of the Year Daily Trend: "+ long impulse + neutral zone + close to 1/2 correction" Monthly CounterTrend "- short balance + unvolumed expanding ICE + volumed 2Sp- + weak test" Yearly Trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + exhaustion volume?" Will add more if corrects to 1/2 of 1H wave.
NYSE:PFELong
by MishaSuvorov
EURUSD Correcting – Another Fall Ahead?Today I want to analyze EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) for a 15-minute time frame and whether EURUSD is ready to fall or not. EURUSD is moving in a Heavy Resistance zone($1.0537-$1.04500) . It also moves in the descending channel in the 15-minute time frame. According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that EURUSD has completed its 5 downward waves , and we should wait for corrective waves . I expect corrective waves to end either in a descending channel or eventually at a Resistance zone($1.0493-$1.0480) . I expect EURUSD to attack the Support lines in the coming hours, and if the Support lines break , we should expect a decline to at least 100_SMA(4-hour) . Note: If EURUSD breaks the Resistance line, we can expect more pumps. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 15-minute time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
2
AMAZON ($AMZN) Q4—$187.8B REVENUE UPSWINGAMAZON ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) Q4—$187.8B REVENUE UPSWING (1/9) Good afternoon, TradginView! Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) posted Q4 ‘24 net sales of 187.8 B,up 10 637.959 B here’s the breakdown. (2/9) – REVENUE GROWTH • Q4 Sales: $ 187.8B, 10% up from $ 170B 📈 • Full ‘24: $ 637.959B, 10.99% rise 📊 • AWS: $ 28.8B, 19% YoY boost 💻 NASDAQ:AMZN ’s steady climb continues. (3/9) – EARNINGS LIFT • Q4 Op. Income: $ 21.2B, up from $ 13.2B 💰 • NA Op. Income: $ 9.3B, from $ 6.5B 🌞 • AWS Margin: 38%, decade high 🌟 NASDAQ:AMZN ’s profit engine hums strong. (4/9) – KEY MOVES • AI Push: GenAI apps rolled out 📡 • AWS: Cash flow dynamo shines 🌍 • Stock: 207−230 range 🚗 NASDAQ:AMZN ’s tech bets fuel growth. (5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS • Spending: Retail feels price pinch ⚠️ • Regs: Antitrust looms large 🔒 • Comp: Azure, Walmart press hard 📉 NASDAQ:AMZN ’s solid, but hurdles lurk. (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS • Retail: $ 115.6B Q4 NA sales 💪 • AWS: $ 28.8B, 38% margin 🏋️ • Scale: Ads, subs diversify 🌱 NASDAQ:AMZN ’s a titan, built to last. (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES • Weaknesses: Capex weighs 📚 • Opportunities: AI, emerging markets 🌏 Can NASDAQ:AMZN vault past the risks? (8/9) – AMZN’s $ 187.8B Q4, your view? 1️⃣ Bullish, $ 300+ by ‘26 😎 2️⃣ Neutral, Steady, risks balance 🤷 3️⃣ Bearish, Growth stalls 😕 Vote below! 🗳️👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY NASDAQ:AMZN ’s $ 187.8B Q4 and $ 637.959B ‘24 stack up, tech titan 🪙 AWS shines, risks loom, gem or pause?
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by DCAChampion
XAUUSD 1hr The 5th Elliott wave has concluded. In the 1hr timeframe the 4hr ZLSMA (Length: 32) has broken the 200 EMA and 200 SMA and the chart has pulled itself back up to the EMA and SMA and then it's broken off the 4hr ascending channel. My opinion is that it will correct until the Fibonacci 0.5 mark ($2769). Target 1: $2821 (Fibo 0.3618) Target 2: $2769 (Fibo 0.5) Stop Loss: $2921 This is not financial advice, I'm simply sharing my own analysis and opinions. Be cautious and conscious with your trades and don't take my word for it.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDShort
by HyacinthTrader