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Wave Analysis

#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Textbook breakout below the bear flag and market is likely on it’s way testing previous lows below 80000. My target 75000 or even 70000 remain the same. What would bulls need to stop this? I highly doubt they can produce a bull surprise above 90000, so if they would go sideways above 80000 for the next 1-3 days, it could have been enough to stop the selling and keep the trading range 80000 - 89000 alive for some more. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 70k - 90k bull case: Only chance for bulls I see here is going sideways and stopping the selling above 80000. Otherwise I don’t have anything for them. They have touched the bear trend line 3 times now and failed. Did not change much to last week since market has not invalidated anything of it. Invalidation is below 70k. bear case: Bears need to close the bull gap down to 73800, no ifs or buts. If they do not create better selling pressure next week and close a daily bar below 80k, market has likely turned more neutral again and both sides have equal odds of the next impulse. Invalidation is above 94k. short term: Neutral. Need strong selling momentum again for me to join this. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. It’s happening. 70k/75k and then I expect a bigger bounce first. Then we will see if we can go lower or not. For now it’s very low probability that the big bull trend line from 2023-10 breaks anytime soon. current swing trade: Short since 85000. Stop is 89000 no matter where you go short here. chart update: Removed one minor broken bear trend line.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds
3
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls continued and surprised a bit with the follow-through. 3 consecutive bullish weeks now and market has touched 70 multiple times. 70-72 is my neutral target while leaning bullish below 68. Volume is atrocious but market is free to do whatever. Could see a retest of 66 as well as going higher for 72. Absolutely no opinion on this or interest in trading, other than small scalps. Look at the weekly tf and tell me how obvious everything is, be my guest. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 65 - 72 bull case: Bulls produce decent tails below daily bars and keeping the market above the daily 20ema and 69. Right now they have taken somewhat control of the market after many weeks of selling, likely due to bears being exhausted. Only a daily close above 70 would change my assessment though. Sideways is more likely for me and I have no bigger interest in buying at 70 when it could be the high of a potential trading range 65 - 70. Invalidation is below 65. bear case: Bears sold the market relentlessly for 2 months straight and do seem exhausted. Right now they want to keep 70 resistance and since this is the first decent bounce the bulls got, the odds of this going much further up are low. It’s still a bear flag on the weekly tf and a retest of 65/66 is possible. Daily close below 68 would make me look for shorts for 100-200 ticks lower but that’s about it. Invalidation is above 71. short term: Neutral around 70. Bulls need a daily close above and bears something below 68 again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed last bear trend line, market is neutral at 70.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Last week I wrote that we need a proper channel down and the past week was the worst case scenario for the bulls. We could not even get to the 50% retracement and turned down violently again. There is a small chance for the bulls to make this a double bottom and go sideways but as of now that is very very low probability. More likely is that we have formed the top of the channel and will get a big second leg down to 18000 or lower. If we go down below 19000, my thesis is that we go down for 2 more weeks and then earnings will decide on the next impulse. For now the technicals are clear, market could not even retrace 50%, we turned around the daily 20ema and volume on the down move is picking up again. Everything points to a bear trend. current market cycle: strong bear trend key levels: 19000 - 20500 bull case: Bulls running for the exits. They have some previous support at the 2024-09 low 19073 but that is most likely not stopping this freight train down. Next big support is at 18000/18100 which is my W3 target. Only question now is if we find buyers tomorrow who want to keep the market above 19000. It’s not impossible that we could see 1-2 more days of stalling around 19000 but given the current structure the selling is just too strong to look for any longs. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears have now erased about a year of gains and we are heading lower. Friday was another strong sell signal and bears now want to close the monthly bar at the very low to also produce a huge sell signal on the weekly and monthly charts. The selling is strong enough for at least a decent sized second leg and the measured move leads to 16200 which is between my year-end-special target of 17500 and the bull trend line from the covid lows. Plan for the next 2 weeks is the W3 and W4 where I expect W3 to hit 18000 and W4 could retest 19000. Invalidation is above 20600. short term: Clear bear trend now once we drop below 19000. W3 should get us to around 18000 while W4 could be good for a retest of 19000. No longs for me what so ever. Big bear trend line from 22450 has to hold. medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. Clear W1 of this bear trend. Market now has to close below 19000 to confirm W3. Depending on how deep W3 goes, W5 will either reach only around 17500 or the bull trend line around 16000. current swing trade: None chart update: Added most likely upper bear trend line and adjusted the 5-wave series.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
FLSR - Bulls Will control an Impending Advance---Elliott wave analysis--- As you can see on the daily chart, There is an impulsive cycle from the low of 5960 that validates all the required rules of the Elliott wave principle given below: Wave (2) can never exceed the starting point of wave (1). Wave (3) can never be the shortest wave among (1), (3) & (5). Wave (4) can never enter the price territory of wave (1). So, we have a valid reason to validate the wave count. In addition, FSLR's wave cycle has the following formation in the wave with Fibonacci levels: Wave (1) is an impulse wave. Wave (2) retraced 100% of wave (1). It has formed A-B-C zigzag. Wave (3) is an extended wave. Wabe (4) is a complex correction W-X-Y, that retraced to 0.382 level. Wave (5) is an ending diagonal. Wave A retraced 0.382 of wave (5), which extended to 1.618 level. Wave (B) retraced 100% of wave A. FLSR had accomplished impulsive structure at 232 and started corrective formation. It looks like the correction phase occurred at 132.19 . We can expect a new motive cycle from 132.19 . Traders should carefully watch the breakout of wave 4 of wave (c). Target projection: Using Reverse Fibonacci of wave (B) Reverse Fibonacci Of correction resistance and pivot levels From the above projections, we can find a cluster of levels to measure our targets. Traders can follow cluster targets: 168 - 188 - 192 or higher. It can extend up to 100% at 232. Alternatively, Failure can continue correction to the final support level of 115.58, which is less likely to happen. ---Indicator Study:--- Average true range: ATR of the FLSR rose to 7.79 when the price was rising. It suggests that we can get a rapid upward move after the breakout of wave (4). RSI: The RSI of the FLSR surged from 31.09 to 49.5 . RSI surge along with price suggests that bulls have a strong grip on the stock. We can also see a divergence from the previous move. Exponential Moving averages: Major EMAs, such as the 200-day and 100-day , are trading above the price, but the 20-day Exponential Moving Average is being broken by FSLR. Its possible for security to reach quickly to 50 EMA soon. Thank you! By @moneydictators on @TradingView Platform
NASDAQ:FSLR
by Money_Dictators
12
EUR/JPY: The Calm Before the Yen Storm The sharp drop in FOREXCOM:EURJPY OANDA:EURJPY FX:EURJPY CAPITALCOM:EURJPY from July to August 2024 appears to be a classic impulse wave A. Since then, the pair has entered a consolidation phase — most likely forming a triangle as part of a corrective wave B. 🔍 Key observations: Volume is evenly distributed, with the POC sitting near the current price levels. Volatility continues to compress, increasing the likelihood of a breakout once the triangle structure completes. The 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone of wave A (around 161.50–164.00) is the most probable area for wave B to top out. 📉 Once this consolidation is complete, the pair is expected to move into wave C, potentially targeting 147.00–154.00. ⚠️ This scenario remains the base case as long as the price action holds within the corrective structure. Watch for a rejection near the upper boundary — a short setup may be on the horizon.
Short
by shakatrade1_618
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: First 3 trading days of the week bulls tried to break above and failed at every higher high, printing an expanding triangle, which broke to the downside on Thursday. Outlook is tough. I want to lean bearish but there is still bigger buying coming through at new lows and betting on the bear breakout is just not a good trade. current market cycle: trading range - bull trend line is broken and market has failed to make new highs 2 times on the daily chart. key levels: 22000 - 23746 bull case: Bulls see it as a trading range at the highs and want to continue sideways until the next impulse could bring them higher again. They prevented the market from making lower lows, which is the only objective now. Once market makes new lows below 22400, the bulls know that the next support is likely the trend line around 22000, which is also the open gap close. I don’t have much else for the bulls. Narrative wise it should have made higher highs already and technically this market has turned neutral again. Invalidation is below 22400. bear case: Bears have plenty of arguments now to make lower lows and test down to 22000. If they fail again at a lower low, bears have to give up and let bulls take control again. We have a big open bear gap between 22900 and 23078. Bears have to keep this open and stay below the 4h 20ema if they want lower lows. They can even argue an ugly head & shoulders top and the measured move down would bring us to exactly 21000. If bulls would have been stronger, we would have made higher highs by now. We have seen enough strong rejections above 23000, volume has picked up significantly and US markets are falling like dead fish. Now or never for bears or we go higher. Invalidation is above 23000. short term: Neutral but bear at heart. I just won’t bet on the breakout but rather want to see it happen and only join after a retest broke down again. Previous support is too big to ignore and bears have not done enough for me to be more confident about them. Below 22500 the odds go up significantly for the bears and bulls need to recover 22900+ for more upside or at least going sideways instead of down. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement. current swing trade: Will join the bears below 22500 on good momentum for 22000 or lower. chart update: Bull trend line is gone and added bear gap
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
XAUUSD XAU/USD represents the price of gold in relation to the US dollar and is one of the most traded commodities in global financial markets. It is influenced by factors such as inflation, interest rates, geopolitical events, and central bank policies, making it a key asset for investors seeking stability during economic uncertainty. Gold often acts as a safe-haven asset, with demand increasing in times of market volatility or currency devaluation. The relationship between gold and the dollar tends to be inverse, meaning when the dollar strengthens, gold prices typically decline, and vice versa. Traders and investors closely monitor economic data, Federal Reserve decisions, and global financial trends to predict movements in the XAU/USD pair.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by HavalMamar
Whitbread Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # Whitbread Stock Quote - Double Formation * 012345 Wave Set Up / Long | ((No Trade)) * 012345 Wave Set Up / Short | Subdivision 1 - Triple Formation * (Continuation Argument)) | Short Set Up | Subdivision 2 * (TP1) | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition - (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Indexed To 100 - Position On A 1.5RR * Stop Loss At 88.00 GBP * Entry At 83.00 GBP * Take Profit At 70.00 GBP * (Downtrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation * Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area)) Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Sell
PEPPERSTONE:WTB.GBShort
by TradePolitics