Wave Analysis
USDJPY - Longterm viewHere is our in-depth view and update on USDJPY . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels .
Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at USDJPY from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame .
USDJPY is currently trading at around 149.000s . We are still extremely bearish on FX:USDJPY since our last longterm analysis was completed:
Scenario 1: SELLS from 148.200
-We broke below the downtrend channel.
With the break of the downtrend channel we can expect more sells to come and we should continue the bearish trend on USDJPY slowly digging into lower levels potentially reaching our target of 145.000.
Scenario 2: SELLS from 151.250
-We above the downtrend channel - 149.900.
If we above our downtrend channel we can expect some short-term buys up to our main Key Level or PBA (Pullback Area) from where we can look to enter into the long-term sells.
IMPORTANT KEY LEVELS:
- 151.250; possible pullback area
- 148.200; breaks below confirming lower levels
- 145.000; longterm target (prices from Aug-Sep 2024)
Personal opinion:
We are currently trading in a downtrend channel and we are expecting more sells to come throughout the next weeks. We do have to be careful as TVC:DXY and TVC:JXY might experience some volatility tomorrow due to the following news:
JXY: Tokyo Core CPI y/y
DXY: Core PCE Price Index m/m
KEY NOTES
- USDJPY breaking above 149.900 would result in higher pullbacks.
- USDJPY breaking below 148.200 (below the downtrend channel) would confirm sells.
- USDJPY is overall extremely bearish.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
GBPNZD: Bullish Pattern & Breakout 🇬🇧🇳🇿
GBPNZD formed a bullish accumulation pattern on a daily.
Its neckline was broken with a high momentum bullish candle yesterday.
The next strong resistance is 2.236.
It will most likely be the next goal for the buyers.
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Chart Pattern Analysis of NVDA
K4 break up the previous high price and close upon the resistance.
It is a bull signal for the market.
But there is still a concern about the lower demands along the recent candles.
Perhaps K4 is a fake up candle.
If that is a fact,
K5 will not likely create a higher high and usually will break down the resistant immediately.
Considered K5 is near the support along the uptrend channel,
The market will choose to break up or fall down here.
If K5 break up K4,
It will be a good place to buy then.
If K5 close below the resistance,
The consolidation will expand down to test 116USD.
It will be another good place to buy then.
"Crude Oil’s Next Wave: A Bearish Ride Down the Elliott LadderLooking at the CL weekly chart through an Elliott Wave lens, I’m seeing a compelling setup for a bearish move in crude oil. The price action suggests we’re poised to break below the key support zone between $67 and $65—a level that’s held firm but looks ready to give way. If this plays out, I’d expect a drop toward the $54 area, and should momentum really kick in, we could even see $50 as the next target. The wave structure aligns with a classic corrective decline, and the momentum indicators are hinting at exhaustion in the prior uptrend.
What’s your take on this—any counters or confirmations from your charts?
DogeCoin buy signal (DogeUSDT)Hello dear traders.
I just got a Dogecoin buy signal, and the chart is showing strong bullish momentum for the short term. Key indicators suggest an upward breakout, with increasing volume and positive price action. If the trend holds, we could see a solid move to the upside soon! 🚀I just got a Dogecoin buy signal, and the chart is showing strong bullish momentum for the short term. Key indicators suggest an upward breakout, with increasing volume and positive price action. If the trend holds, we could see a solid move to the upside soon! 🚀
Please do you own research before place a trade
USDT Dominance Update (4H)The large bullish pattern appears to be a symmetrical one, and we are currently in wave I of this structure.
Wave I seems to need a bit more time to complete. The candles are expected to reject from the red zone down to the SS (Static Support) line.
If the candles attack the red zone once again, it could be a good opportunity to buy Bitcoin and altcoins.
Let’s follow the market step by step instead of making predictions. Let’s see what happens.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Intraday Setup: Gold Market Technical Outlook & Supply Zone.🔹Gold (XAU/USD) 15-Minute Chart Analysis
- The chart highlights a supply zone around the 2,914 level, where price previously faced strong selling pressure.
- Gold has broken below this zone, indicating a potential bearish continuation.
- A retest of the supply zone is expected before further downside movement.
- The projected path suggests a move lower towards new support levels, likely around 2,890 or below.
- If price fails to reclaim the supply zone, sellers may maintain control.
▪️Conclusion:
Gold appears to be in a short-term downtrend, with potential selling opportunities near the supply zone before further declines.
US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) on the 1-hour timeframe,US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) on the 1-hour timeframe with a potential bullish setup.
Chart Analysis:
• The price is currently around 43,415, trading within a support zone (highlighted in red).
• A bullish scenario is suggested, where price is expected to bounce from support and move towards the next resistance level (marked with a blue arrow).
• Key resistance levels are around 43,871, which could be the first target if the price starts moving up.
• Price previously rejected a lower support area, indicating potential buying interest at this level.
• The overall expectation appears to be a breakout above consolidation and a continuation towards higher levels.
Would you like a deeper breakdown or specific trade idea?
If This Happens For BTC Dominance, Shakeout Is CancelledHello, Skyrexians!
As you remember we have the previous analysis on CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D where we pointed out the target at 66% and the shakeout. But we were sure that it will happen in the upcoming week, but Dominance retraced again below 61% and current wave doesn't look like the wave 5. This move increased probability of more positive scenario for altcoins.
Let's take a look at 12h time frame. We can see that candles were able only to touch the 62.5% and then retested the recent low. It gives us an idea that the probability that this is wave 5 decreased. Here we have two scenarios. The first one is that we are in wave 4, which is more complicated that we supposed and candles will finally reach 66%.
But the second scenario now has even more than 50% probability. This pump could be already shortened wave 5. Unfortunately, Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator can't catch such waves, but Awesome Oscillator tells us that wave 4 has been finished and we can see the divergence, which could already happened if dominance touch 66%. Now AO is reversing and this is the sign that this impulse to the upside will not continue. The clear breakdown of 60% will confirm this idea.
Best regards,
Skyrexio Team
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EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar) daily timeframe with a bullish outlook.EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar) daily timeframe with a bullish outlook.
Chart Analysis:
• The price is currently around 1.0467, showing signs of breaking above a key resistance zone (highlighted in red).
• A bullish scenario is illustrated, where the price is expected to retest the breakout zone and then continue upward.
• Key resistance levels are marked at 1.0680, 1.0791, and 1.0925, which could act as potential targets for a bullish move.
• The overall structure suggests a possible trend reversal after a downtrend, with a move towards higher levels.
Let me know if you need a deeper breakdown or specific details!
(BTC/USD) daily timeframe.(BTC/USD) daily timeframe. The chart includes price action analysis with a highlighted ENTRY ZONE around 85,147 - 87,885.
Chart Analysis:
• The market has experienced a sharp drop and is now expected to retest the entry zone (resistance area).
• After testing this zone, the chart suggests a potential price rejection and a further downward movement.
• A support level is marked around 76,805 - 76,765, which could act as a target if the price continues to decline.
• The current price is 85,147, and the overall outlook appears bearish.
Let me know if you need a more detailed breakdown or discussion!
A bit of Hopium - FTX payouts tomorrow. What's next for the mark8 months to the assumed end of the cycle.
ETFs and everything else are already priced in. However, incoming money flows are not yet factored into the price of the cryptocurrency market. This creates a unique opportunity for those who can anticipate where liquidity will flow next.
I think you all have noticed that capital/liquidity from Bitcoin is not moving into altcoins — at least not yet. Bitcoin remains the "safe haven" for institutional investors, while altcoins remain underappreciated. But if ETFs for altcoins are approved, it will be a very different situation. The floodgates could open, and we might see unprecedented inflows into projects like Ethereum, Cardano, and even meme coins like Dogecoin.
FTX payouts are on February 18 — that's tomorrow.
This event is critical. Many creditors have been waiting for years to recover their funds. With Ethereum staking ETFs potentially approved in the second quarter, this could coincide with the next FTX payouts, creating a perfect storm of liquidity entering the market.
Let’s remember the 2020 FTX debt buybacks at $0.3 per dollar, then $0.4, and the last one I heard was at $0.8 per dollar. Someone had a lot of confidence that payouts would be made. And where do you think the $10–15 billion of capital will go? Most likely to altcoins, because Samuel Bankman-Fried was the king of altcoins.
There is an assumption that if something triggers the printing press or quantitative easing, but nobody believes in that now.
Central banks are tightening monetary policy, and inflation is slowly coming under control. However, the crypto market operates differently. It thrives on speculation, innovation, and adoption. All of the top altcoins will be priced significantly higher as new narratives emerge.
The challenge is to hold our portfolios! Volatility is inevitable, but patience will pay off.
If there is a correction in early March, here are the projects with potential ETFs:
ETH staking
LTC
ADA
DOGE
XLM
XRP
HBAR
This is in case there is a drop in March. Corrections are healthy for the market, allowing new buyers to enter at lower prices.
Spring can turn positive very quickly.
The best scenario is a green close of the February candle — momentum on Bitcoin. If BTC holds above key support levels, we could see a bullish Q2.
In the second half of March, we need to get in what we didn’t manage to get in the market, in case there is no drop in early March. Timing is crucial, but so is preparation.
Additional Catalysts to Watch For:
There are many catalysts that I don’t write about, but they could happen:
Introduction of Basic Income
Unexpected ETF bids: Regulatory approvals often come faster than expected.
Countries building reserves of BTC or other altcoins : Nations like El Salvador have already started adopting Bitcoin. Others may follow suit, especially as geopolitical tensions rise.
It’s going to be a super positive year. Stay positive.
The future is very clear, but for some reason, a lot of people are losing faith.
Prices go up — I’m sure of this scenario. Prices go down — I’m sure of this scenario. There’s no point in making a fuss when you know what’s ahead. I don’t know why people lose faith in their beliefs in the moment.
In a market like this, when it’s suddenly not obvious, it’s because you’re competing with a completely different category of players. Believing in your beliefs will be an advantage in this market, especially for people who are not big capital.
Stay strong and focused.
Best regards EXCAVO