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Wave Analysis

An Educational Journey into Technical Analysis with Dogecoin/USDIn this tutorial, we'll dive deep into the art of technical analysis using the Dogecoin USD chart as our canvas. You'll discover how to blend Fibonacci tools, Elliott Wave Theory, and the Wyckoff Method to forecast potential market movements. Whether you're new to trading or looking to refine your analytical skills, this guide will provide you with practical insights into identifying entry and exit points, understanding market phases, and preparing for future trends. Let's embark on this educational journey together to enhance your trading strategy toolkit. When in doubt, Zoom Out! Below I was looking at Arguments for a Significant Short Position Before the Continuation of the Bullish Trend and the Pursuit of New All-Time Highs Elliott Waves: From the bear market bottom at 4.5 cents, we started wave 1 and concluded with wave 5 at the current top. Following five waves, we expect an ABC correction. Waves A and B have been completed, and we are now in wave C. Fibonacci 1: Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension - From the all-time high (ATH) to the recent bear market bottom, then to the current 48-cent top. The 0.382 Fibonacci level suggests a target of 0.2130 for the upcoming drop, which I believe is necessary for liquidity ahead of the next upward movement. Fibonacci 2: Regular Fibonacci Retracement - From the bottom of wave 4 to the top of wave 5, the 0.618 level is at 0.235 cents. I've marked a green box between these two targets. See in the image below how Backtesting this strategy on the two previous cycles shows that before breaking ATHs, Dogecoin always hit this 0.382 Fib level! I use these 2 Fibonacci targets to place the green box between them and where I expect price to go in the newxt couple of weeks. Additional Observation: The green line below the 0.618 Fib retracement and above the 0.382 trend-based Fibonacci extension also marks a retest of the wave 3 high at 0.23 cents. Now that we've examined the macro perspective, let's Zoom In to the current action: Wyckoff Schematic: Check my previously published idea on Bitcoin, linked here, where Bitcoin is in a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1. Dogecoin seems to follow with Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #2. I've added vertical lines for phase separation, a red resistance box, and a green support box. Link to Richard D. Wyckoff, his Method and Story www.wyckoffanalytics.com . ABC Pattern: Wave A from top to bottom is exactly 0.222 cents or -45.81%, suggesting wave C should be of similar magnitude. Wave B measures 0.1724 cents and 65.65% to the upside. Using an arrow tool, the 0.222 cent drop points exactly to the 0.382 Fibonacci target from the trend-based extension we did in the macro analysis, now highlighted in yellow. Link to chart. Zooming in on the 4-hour Chart: I've drawn another Fibonacci retracement just for wave B, colored in turquoise blue. Notably, the 1.272 Fibonacci extension aligns with our macro 0.382 Fibonacci target, now colored yellow for clarity. Speculations for Future Moves: Fibonacci Circle and bottom timing prediction: Drawn from A to B, this circle in orange might help us predict when we hit the green box target at the bottom. Considering that the A drop measures exactly 12 days and 4Hours I have added another vertical line now marking a timeframe of 5 days from Thursday 30 January to Monday 3 February 2025 This is speculative but worth watching. It includes also a weekend so a CME gap before weekend plus filling the week after could also be in play. Wyckoff Phases: According to earlier discussions, we're moving through phases A to E. I've added a vertical line where the Fib circle crosses our 1.272 and 0.382 Fib levels, suggesting we'll enter phase E on January 23, 2025, potentially concluding by February 2, 2025. Predictive Arrows: Blue arrows indicate possible future price movements based on current patterns. After hitting our target, I'll analyze again and publish a new idea with plans for breaking the ATH and targets for the anticipated bull market. Enough for now, as it's getting late. Give me a follow, share if you liked this analysis, and stay tuned for updates.
BINANCE:DOGEUSDEducation
by Candle_Styx
19
2025-01-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Market went a couple of points short of the previous lower high 22111 but it probably won’t mean much. We are close enough that we can retest the ath now. There is a big gap even on futures down to 21700 and if that stay’s open, bulls can go higher. We have the big upper bull trend line that goes to around 22600, so this could be a potential target. Bears need to get below 21900 to turn the market a bit more neutral. current market cycle: trading range (obvious bull trend on lower time frames) key levels: 21800 - 22600 bull case: Strong buying through the day and then a melt-up on US open. Bulls are in full control and have their eyes on the ath 22450. We have two bull trend lines that should hold. One is very close to 21980 which will likely be broken during the Globex session and the next around is currently at 21780. Invalidation is below 21700. bear case: I don’t think bulls should allow the market to fall that much if they want a new ath. Either we keep the momentum going or we might go sideways here and print another lower high. Bears are not doing anything right now except some after hours spikes but they go nowhere. Tuesday night was decent but no follow-through and we have just melted since. First target for the bears is to get below 21900 again and then test the other trend line below us. Invalidation is above 22600. short term: Bullish after pull-backs. I won’t look to short this until bears have shown much more strength. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-22: Let’s see if we print a new ath and what kind of reaction follows. For now I think we go much more sideways 20000 - 22600/23000. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying anywhere below 22000 was pretty amazing since first hour in Globex printed the low.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
BITCOIN to 120.000€ 1. General Overview of the Setup: This chart uses Fibonacci circles as a tool to identify key support and resistance levels in relation to time and price. The circles expand outward from the anchor point of the trend, capturing potential price turning points or zones where price action could experience increased activity or reactions. Current Price Action: BTC/USDT is trading around $104,263.80, which places it in the upper section of the Fibonacci circles. This suggests the asset is in a strong uptrend and consolidating just above the "big support level" marked near $93,763.78. Major Levels Highlighted: Support Level: ~$93,763 (confluence of horizontal price structure and a Fibonacci ring boundary). Resistance Target: ~$124,734 (upper Fibonacci ring level and future price projection). 2. Fibonacci Circles Insights: The circles are designed to project areas where price could encounter significant resistance or support based on the geometry of price and time cycles: Past Reactions: Orange circles highlight points where the price bounced or reversed in alignment with the intersection of Fibonacci ring boundaries. Blue circles mark breakout areas where BTC surged higher after respecting a lower Fibonacci level. Present Position: The price is currently above the $93,763 support level, using it as a base to consolidate. This level aligns with a key Fibonacci ring, reinforcing its significance. Future Projections: The next significant resistance based on the Fibonacci ring geometry lies around $124,734, aligning with the next major arc. This could act as a magnet for price in the coming weeks. 3. Support and Resistance Levels: Big Support Zone (~$93,763): This is identified as the major structural support and coincides with the lower boundary of the current Fibonacci arc. A breakdown below this level could lead to a retest of deeper levels, possibly around $85,000 or lower Fibonacci arcs. Major Resistance Zone (~$124,734): This level is a key Fibonacci target that aligns with the next concentric arc. Historically, BTC has reacted near similar Fibonacci resistance levels in this uptrend. 4. Indicators and Patterns: Bullish Continuation Setup: The overall structure suggests that BTC is in a healthy consolidation phase within a strong uptrend. The Fibonacci rings imply that price has respected geometric levels, suggesting bullish continuation toward higher targets. Volume Analysis: Declining volume during consolidation supports the idea of a breakout or continuation pattern, as selling pressure appears to be limited. 5. Trade Plan and Key Levels: Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout: Entry: Above $105,000 on strong momentum and volume confirmation. Target: $124,734. Stop Loss: Below $93,000 (to invalidate the breakout setup). Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown: Entry: Below $93,763 on high volume and bearish confirmation. Target: $85,000 (next major support). Stop Loss: Above $100,000 to minimize risk. Conclusion: The Fibonacci circle analysis combined with the current BTC/USDT trend strongly suggests bullish potential, with $124,734 as the next significant resistance target. However, traders should monitor the $93,763 support level, as a breakdown below this point could shift the trend bearish in the short term. Patience and disciplined risk management are key to navigating this setup.
Long
by CryptoKaiserDE
DOUG how horrible is this company It used to be a fantastic company- They ruined it.... Douglas Elliman (DOUG) has faced significant challenges recently: Stock price decline: DOUG shares have dropped 26% in the past month and 34% over the last year1. The stock price tumbled to as low as $1 per share, risking delisting from the NYSE5. Consecutive losses: The company has reported eight consecutive quarterly losses. In Q3 2024, Douglas Elliman faced a net loss of $27.2 million. Market capitalization plunge: DOUG's market cap has fallen from over $900 million at its IPO to around $100 million. Underperformance: The company missed analyst expectations on unit growth, consolidated revenues, and adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2024. Industry challenges: High mortgage rates and limited listing inventory are weighing on productivity. Bearish sentiment: Current sentiment for DOUG stock is bearish, with the Fear & Greed Index showing 39 (Fear). Activist pressure: An investor has called for the removal of chairman and CEO Howard Lorber due to poor financial performance. Controversy: Sexual assault allegations have been made against two of the brokerage's former top agents. The business model is what is horrendous. it is predicated in routing clinest away from well connected agents and into a small group of prioritized teams. The problem with teams is that have no class nor clue, and it deviates from the old and tested, socially connected business. High End Lux Real estate is all about social connections. They have a male pon start there as their top guy... come one ...
NYSE:DOUGShort
by imcnf5c4ff
AMD Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst Cyclic AnalysisLet’s revisit the key points from my last update on AMD, published on November 27th: We are currently correcting the bullish move from October 2022 to March 2024. Wave A of the second zigzag (labeled 'y') is nearing completion. The October 2023 trough aligns with an 80-week (80W) cycle trough. The first 20-week (20W) cycle within this 40W cycle was anticipated around December 18th. A rally is expected to follow before entering the extreme bearish phase. The 80W cycle trough is projected for early April 2025. Although the 20W cycle trough took slightly longer to form than expected, the overall analysis remains intact. We are currently progressing through wave B of y of (II), which I believe could push prices as high as 144. The 80W cycle trough is now projected for early May 2025.
NASDAQ:AMD
by bamdadsalarieh
Ethereum - We Will See This Breakout!Ethereum ( CRYPTO:ETHUSD ) is ready to catch up: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 For the past couple of months, Ethereum has been retesting the previous all time high resistance and was actually not able to break it. However, following the rising channel pattern, the bullish break and retest and price action, the breakout is about to happen. Levels to watch: $4.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by basictradingtv
23
DJI a FAILED 5th Wave and right shoulder Head n shoulder TOP The chart now can be seen as A 5th wave Failure . as we have entered the 6 spiral window. the last 5 /6 spirals called the TOP to the day major turn 11/29 to 12/5 in the dji it was 11/29 and the MATH was near perfect . Now what ?? the drop in my view was wave 4 of the Supercycle peak . since then cycles turned up and the 5th wave started . based on the 80 day cycle due mid dec . so why am I calling this a Failed 5th wave reason is the last low was one of the longest days down in US history and breaking the long term trendline support The High Hit the trendline at the peak going back to the sept 2nd 1929 high . The fact that the sp 500 is now the only index to print a new record high is a warning . I started to move into puts on friday jan 17th and moved to a 110 % long puts today at 6100 in the spx cash and 533 in the QQQ , The market can still trace out a small 4 nad 5 and 4.5 and the DJI could still print a minor new High but today and this week are a grouping of 6 spirals Golden ratio . the DJI has only rallied to almost .786 the drop 44370 target I started buying puts at 43800. 2025 is a very bearish cycle see my forecast DEC 8th 2024 . Best of trades WAVETIMER
AMEX:DIA
by wavetimer
CAD/CHF - Analysis and Forecast for 2025Are you ready to explore one of the most intriguing currency pairs in the forex market? 🌍 In this video, I dive deep into CAD/CHF to uncover the trends, key levels, and potential opportunities that 2025 holds for traders like you! 🕵️‍♂️💡 🚀 What to Expect: ✅ A detailed analysis of the Canadian Dollar 🇨🇦 vs. Swiss Franc 🇨🇭. ✅ Key drivers shaping the forex market this year, including oil prices 🛢️, monetary policy 📊, and global economic dynamics 🌐. ✅ Entry points, targets 🎯, and risk management tips for smarter trading. 💼 Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting your journey, this video provides actionable insights to help you make informed decisions. 📊📈 👀 Why CAD/CHF? The CAD/CHF pair is not just another forex pair—it’s a battleground of two strong economies with unique influences. From Canada’s oil-driven strength 🛢️ to Switzerland’s reputation for stability 🏦, this pair offers volatility and opportunity for those who know how to trade it. 💡 Don't Miss Out! Watch till the end to see why I entered a buy position and how I plan to capitalize on the upcoming trends. 🎯💰 🌟 Hit the Like Button 👍, Subscribe 🔔, and Join the Discussion in the Comments! Let’s decode the future of CAD/CHF together! 💬👨‍💻
Long
by ForexCompany
1
Why You Should Consider Buying ARKK ETF: A Gateway to InnovationOverview of ARKK ARKK is the ticker symbol for the ARK Innovation ETF, managed by the investment firm ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood. The ETF is renowned for its focus on high-growth, innovative companies across various sectors such as technology, healthcare, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy. Key Features Focus on Disruptive Innovation: ARKK invests in companies at the forefront of transformative technologies, including: Genomic research and biotechnology. Robotics and automation. Artificial intelligence (AI). Blockchain technology. Electric vehicles (EVs). Active Management: Cathie Wood, the fund's visionary manager, is known for her bold and aggressive investment strategies, targeting high-risk, high-reward opportunities in emerging industries. Portfolio Composition: ARKK's holdings include trailblazing companies such asTesla, **Roku, Zoom Video Communications, CRISPR Therapeutics, and Block (formerly Square). The portfolio is actively managed and adjusted based on ARK Invest's extensive research. Risk-Reward Profile: As a high-risk ETF, ARKK is characterized by significant price volatility. It appeals to long-term investors willing to weather short-term fluctuations in pursuit of substantial growth potential. Performance: Boom in 2020: ARKK experienced remarkable growth during the pandemic, fueled by a surge in tech stocks. Challenges in 2022: The fund faced a steep decline due to corrections in the tech sector, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainties. Expense Ratio: ARKK has an annual management fee of approximately 0.75%, higher than the average for ETFs, reflecting its active management approach. Target Audience: ARKK is ideal for investors who believe in the long-term potential of disruptive innovation and are comfortable with short-term losses for the prospect of future gains. Risks to Consider Sensitivity to macroeconomic factors (e.g., interest rate hikes). Vulnerability to downturns in the technology sector. Heavy exposure to companies with low or negative earnings. Why Buy ARKK? Investing in ARKK provides exposure to groundbreaking technologies and industries poised for exponential growth. While it carries higher risks, it offers the potential for substantial long-term rewards. Whether you’re an experienced investor or a believer in the future of innovation, ARKK is a compelling addition to a forward-thinking portfolio.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by ForexCompany
Amd - It Comes Down To This Support!Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) is retesting massive support: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 For more than three years, we have been seeing a quite volatile consolidation phase on Amd. Looking at recent price history though, Amd just came back to retest a massive horizontal support level and if we see bulls taking over, a rally of +100% is very possible. Levels to watch: $120, $240 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by basictradingtv
28
GOLD → bulls are aiming for ATH. The odds are high...FX:XAUUSD is in a rally phase aiming for ATH. Based on geopolitical data, we have a pretty good chance. The focus is on 2750. From this point the northbound train can continue its journey. Trump's policies are putting quite a bit of pressure on geopolitics due to creating trade problems for major nations like China, EU, Canada, BRICS countries. Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexian has warned of the negative effects of a trade war, which has further increased demand for safe havens like gold and the US dollar. Gold is also facing pressure because of the Fed, but the dollar correction is becoming another driver for the metal. Technically, the price is trying to consolidate above a rather important level. 2749. If the bulls manage to keep the defense above 2750, the metal may continue its growth in the short and medium term Resistance levels: 2759 Support levels: 2750, 2737, 2732 Emphasis on 2750. If the bulls keep this area under their control, the gold will go higher. But, I do not exclude a retest of 0.5 Fibo liquidity zone or 2732 before further growth. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
13