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Wave Analysis

What October 25th's Options Portfolio Tells Us About the YenOur analysis of options portfolios from October 25th revealed a Straddle setup on the Japanese yen futures, with a short expiration date set for November 1, 2024. Now, this isn’t exactly a rare sight for the yen; these Straddle portfolios pop up pretty regularly, especially when we’re looking at short expiration periods. From what we've seen, in about 4 out of 5 cases, the quotes tend to hang around the Straddle boundaries and often bounce off them. A recent example? August 5th—prices hit the upper limit at 149.20 (that’s the spot quote) and then bounced back nicely, giving savvy traders a sweet opportunity to jump into a short position on the dollar with a solid risk/reward ratio. So, what's the takeaway here? Use those Straddle boundaries to open positions in the spot/forex market. It makes sense to trade in the direction of the main trend, which means looking for a drop in the yen against the dollar when prices hit that upper boundary—check out #1 for a visual. Now, I can hear the skeptics asking: what's the rationale behind these price movements at the Straddle boundaries? After all, a Straddle is just a straightforward strategy that involves buying volatility and betting on price movement. True, that’s the textbook definition, but it’s just scratching the surface. The real insights and "battle-tested applications" of this strategy are way more intricate than they seem. Stay tuned for our updates, and you’ll definitely uncover the hidden meanings and value of options analysis for the everyday forex trader. Trust me, these insights can give you a real edge in the market. It’s worth your time and effort!
CME:6JZ2024
by ClashChartsTeam
China A50, riding the PBOC stimulus IF the monetary stimulus keep pushing Chinese stocks, we could be building a new impulse to retest the 16,500 area. If broken, it could speed up to 20,500 points. What I find positive: lots of shorts still pressing the price to the downside, that could be gone if the price squeezed to the upside. What I find negative: movement has been too fast, no rise-consolidation-rise patterns. For confirmation, breakout above 14,500 (upper Mogalef band)
FOREXCOM:CHINA50Long
by j_arrieta
$NATURALGAS near strong resistance but not entirely exhaustedCAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS is entering in strong seller territory again and it's going to be tough to crack the resistance above where we have 200 ema on the weekly chart with a total volume of approximately 513K orders of which sellers beat buyers by 39%. Right above that we have another 721K orders where sellers dominate by 70%. But contrary to last time where we visited this area (30th Sep) things me be a bit more promising from a technical perspective. On the weekly chart RSI and OBV are less overbought than the previous attempt and from the recent swing high (from previous week) they point upwards hinting at further momentum continuation with price sitting right above the 50 ema (weekly)with the 20 ema (weekly) about to crossover for yet another bullish sign. Lastly, we have price sitting above a support of 220K orders with buyers being 14% more than sellers (not a very strong support when considering the resistance right above us though). On the daily chart we have price above 20, 50 and 200 ema with RSI and OBV increasing sharply and not yet overbought or indicating any divergence (so far) which is promising for further uptrend. Price is about to penetrate the supply zone at 2.98-3.12 with about 14% more buyers than sellers. A volume based support is visible at 2.86-2.81 with the demand zone being way lower near summer lows. On the 4h chart RSI and OBV appear overbought, however no regular bearish divergence can be observed, indicating that the current trend strength remains unchanged (remember that markets can remain in overbought/oversold situations for an extended period of time - and a reversal is more likely to occur when they start becoming less and less overbought as price makes higher highs i.e regular bearish divergence). Recently we broke yet another resistance and price might return and retest this area near 2.99-2.91. A supply zone is visible at 3.12-3.19 hinting at the next possible resistance in the short term. Lastly, Elliot's 5wave model predicts that given the existing trend the next pivot point is near 3.37 before we see a substantial retracement at least on the 4h chart. Finally on the 1h chart we start observing signs of trend weakness with price making higher highs but at the same time RSI and OBV being less and less overbought and a reversal candlestick pattern being formed. Also from the same 5wave model we are theoretically at a pivot point, with an expected retracement until 2.57! The demand zone is observed at 2.94-2.97 and might act as a support in the future for further uptrend continuation. There are some problems with the above signs of weakness on the hourly though and the most important one is that all the divergences observed during last session occurred with suboptimal volume. This might be an attempt of manipulation of a fake breakdown or it can simply mean that people are simply collecting some of their earnings either as part of their usual risk management strategy or due to the fact that above (weekly chart) we face a very strong resistance from a technical perspective. To sump up, it is clear that we are headed towards a strong resistance in fact we are already in it for some of the charts: 3.03-3.25 (w), 2.99 - 3.14 (d), 3.11-3.18 (4h), 3.10 - 3.19 (1h). We have possible support based on volume at 2.59 (w), 2.86 (d), 2.97- 2.85 (4h) and 2.97-2.94 (1h). Trend is still strong on the w, d and 4h chart with signs of weakness observed on the 1h chart. Since we made almost 14% in a single week, some retracement would be reasonable but then again the market maker has his own reasoning. Given that personally I do not see bearish divergence occurring at 4h or above, I am leaning towards the assumption that any pullback we might see in the next week is likely to find support within the volume depicted in the 4h and 1h charts. Personally I will be looking to buy the dips near previous volumetric orderblocks if price action shows that they hold and price bounces up from there with bullish divergence.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by chriskokal1
1
EURUSD decision point Hi friends how are you ?? I hope all is well I hope you all had a good profit from last week Today we are analyzing the Eurusd while we see that the divergence has also been broken and the second divergence will still support it. If we look at the trend line and analyze it then it is forming an ascending channel which has not been broken yet this is a decision point Please share your opinion in the comments below. Thanks Allah bless you Weekly divergence
by Rashidsiddique
Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Price --- ### **Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Price** #### **1. Trend Patterns and Market Structure** - **Market Structure**: Over the past month, Bitcoin has shown a gradual uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows indicating sustained bullish momentum. However, it is currently in a consolidation phase after testing higher levels, suggesting potential distribution. - **Trend Reversal Signals**: Keep an eye on any breaks below recent support levels, as this could signal the end of the uptrend. Likewise, a breakout above recent highs could confirm the continuation of the bullish trend. #### **2. Support and Resistance Levels** - **Key Resistance Levels**: - $67,000: Major resistance observed at the top of recent highs. - $70,000: Psychological level that could attract selling pressure. - **Key Support Levels**: - $66,000: Immediate support where price has bounced previously. - $63,500: Secondary support based on historical price action. These levels can serve as potential entry and exit points, depending on how price interacts with these areas. #### **3. Indicator-Based Analysis** - **RSI (Relative Strength Index)**: - Currently hovering around the 60–70 range, suggesting bullish momentum, but caution is warranted if RSI approaches overbought territory (above 70). - Look for any **RSI divergence** (e.g., price making higher highs while RSI makes lower highs), as this could signal a weakening of momentum and potential trend reversal. - **CCI (Commodity Channel Index)**: - With a value above +100, CCI suggests that Bitcoin is in an overbought condition. A drop below +100 could indicate a loss of bullish momentum and could be a sign of reversal. - A CCI below -100 could signal oversold conditions, which might provide buying opportunities on a reversal. - **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)**: - The MACD line remains above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. However, watch for a potential **bearish crossover**, which could indicate a weakening trend. - An increase in the MACD histogram could indicate growing momentum, while a decrease signals potential exhaustion. #### **4. Price Action Analysis Using Wyckoff Theory** - **Current Wyckoff Phase**: Based on recent price movements, Bitcoin may be in the **distribution phase** where large players are selling, and retail traders continue buying. This can lead to a consolidation zone followed by potential markdown if price breaks below key support. - **Patterns to Watch**: - **Spring**: A false breakout below support, followed by a quick reversal to the upside, can confirm strong buying pressure. - **Upthrust**: A breakout above resistance with a quick retraction could indicate a bull trap, suggesting a reversal might be imminent. - **Volume Analysis**: Increasing volume on down moves could signal distribution, while decreasing volume on up moves supports the idea of weakening bullish momentum. #### **5. Elliott Wave Analysis** - **Wave Count**: - The recent uptrend might be completing a 5-wave impulsive move, with the current consolidation potentially marking the start of an ABC corrective wave. - **Wave 1–5 (Impulsive)**: Look for a 5-wave pattern to complete, with Wave 5 likely being the last bullish leg. - **ABC Correction**: The ABC corrective wave could bring prices back to a support level (e.g., $63,500) before resuming the larger uptrend. - **Projection**: - If the 5th wave completes near resistance, expect a pullback (corrective ABC wave) toward the nearest support level as a part of the Elliott Wave corrective phase. #### **6. Volatility and Market Sentiment Analysis** - **Volatility (ATR)**: Monitor the Average True Range (ATR) to gauge volatility. An increase in ATR can indicate that a significant move is forthcoming. - **Market Sentiment**: External factors, including news or regulatory events, may impact volatility, which should be factored into your strategy. #### **7. Trading Strategy Recommendation** - **Entry Points**: - **Long Position**: Consider entering a long position if Bitcoin breaks above $67,000 with strong volume, confirming bullish continuation. - **Short Position**: Enter a short position if Bitcoin breaks below $66,000, with the next target being around $63,500, where support might trigger a reversal. - **Exit Points**: - Set take-profit levels near resistance at $67,000 and $70,000 for long positions, and around $63,500 for short positions. Use trailing stops to lock in profits if the trend continues. - **Risk Management**: - **Stop Loss**: Place stops slightly below $66,000 for long positions and slightly above $67,000 for short positions to protect against false breakouts. - **Position Sizing**: Adjust your position size based on ATR and individual risk tolerance, aiming to keep risk per trade under 2% of your portfolio. #### **8. Summary and Trade Plan** - **Bullish Scenario**: A breakout above $67,000 could lead to new highs, provided there’s sufficient volume and momentum. - **Bearish Scenario**: A breakdown below $66,000 with increasing selling pressure could lead to a retest of lower supports. - **Wyckoff and Elliott Implications**: If distribution is confirmed, and Elliott Wave suggests a completed 5th wave, prepare for an ABC corrective wave. This technical analysis combines multiple frameworks to provide a strategic overview, actionable insights, and trade management techniques for navigating Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency market effectively.
Short
by cryptoprofeta20