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TLT: Potential Reversal After Completing ABC Correction [LONG]NASDAQ:TLT Observation: The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) appears to have completed its C-wave of an ABC Elliott Wave correction. Prices have shown signs of consolidation around the critical support zone at $87.50, suggesting the possibility of a double-bottom formation. Support Zone: TLT is consolidating near the $87.50 level, which has historically acted as strong support. Elliott Wave Structure: The recent price action indicates the completion of a corrective ABC structure, with the C-wave potentially marking the final low. Bullish Outlook: If the support holds, the ETF is likely to resume upward momentum, targeting the $94.00 level as the next key resistance. Double-Bottom Potential: Retesting the support zone could further validate a double-bottom reversal pattern. Risk Management: Set stops below $85.14 to minimize downside risk. Monitor overall market sentiment and bond yield movements, which can heavily influence TLT's price action. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing involve significant risks, and you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or decisions made based on this analysis. Always trade responsibly and within your own risk tolerance.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Whisperwave
2
Next week's gold trend trading strategy: Analysis of gold market trends: The gold market showed an extremely complex trend this week. Since the plunge from the high of $2,950 last week, the market has repeatedly fallen and rebounded. It is worth noting that the gold price in the US market bottomed out and rose sharply on Friday. The US market also rose sharply after Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The US market also rose slightly on Thursday, and the US market rose strongly again yesterday. In this series of fluctuations, each time the key position is touched, it can trigger a rebound to varying degrees, which fully demonstrates the tenacious resistance of the bulls. From the analysis of the market, the gold price experienced a sharp drop on Friday, and then rebounded strongly. The daily line finally closed with a medium-sized Yin line with a lower shadow of nearly 30 US dollars. In terms of the weekly line, it presents a large Yin line pattern, and a bearish engulfing pattern appears. A Yin line directly engulfs the previous two Yang lines, and successfully ends the nine-week continuous Yang trend. The monthly line is a medium Yang line, but the upper shadow is as long as 97 US dollars. At present, the prospect of the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks is overshadowed, and the subsequent trends have attracted much attention. This is also one of the important driving factors for the rise in gold prices at the end of Friday. Looking ahead to next week, the United States will release non-agricultural data, and the eurozone will also announce interest rate decisions. In addition, US manufacturing data and the Federal Reserve Beige Book will also be released one after another, all of which will have a significant impact on the gold market. After a sharp drop in gold this week, there is a need for a rebound correction in the short term. From the monthly line, the longer upper shadow line indicates that there may be a move to fill the upper shadow line in the early stage of the decline. The bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly line and the closing of the negative line after nine consecutive weeks of gains have significantly suppressed the bulls. However, the long lower shadow of the daily line on Friday shows that there is strong support below. On the 4-hour chart, after a short-term sharp drop, it has shown a serious oversold signal, so it is bound to usher in a rebound correction. The 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average, which were originally used as support, have turned into pressure points for subsequent rebounds after being broken. It is expected that gold prices will face downward pressure again when they rebound and test these two moving averages. Taking all factors into consideration, the impact of Trump's tariffs has been basically digested. In the absence of new tariff news, the relevant tariff news is likely to be regarded as a factor that induces more buying. Next, the focus will be on whether there will be any new news from the U.S.-led Russia-Ukraine peace talks over the weekend, as well as the release of U.S. non-agricultural data. From a technical perspective, gold is expected to rebound before the $2835-2840 range is broken next week. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict does not deteriorate further, the overall trend of gold is expected to be mainly high and then fall, and the high-level short-selling strategy can continue to be adopted in terms of operation. However, it should be noted that if the situation between Russia and Ukraine deteriorates further, the market trend may change significantly. The upper resistance levels are $2880-2885, $2890-2895, and the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average; the lower support levels are $2835-2840, $2805-2810, and $2785-2770.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Caesar_Gorman1
How Will GBP/USD Move at the End of the Trading Session?Hello everyone! Let’s take a look at how GBP/USD might move as we approach the final trading session of the week. As expected, GBP/USD declined yesterday, extending its losses below 1.2580 in today’s session, with no signs of a bullish correction yet. Uncertainty surrounding tariff policies from U.S. President Donald Trump has weakened the British pound against the U.S. dollar, making GBP/USD look even more bearish. Technical Outlook: GBP/USD is targeting lower levels, with the trend channel under pressure. The pair has dropped to the EMA 34 and 89 levels, reinforcing the probability of further downside momentum. If buyers continue to lose ground to the bears, 1.2460 will be the next major support level to defend.
Short
by Bullback_FX
SPX500 Bullish Retracement or Short Continuation? 1. Top-Down Bias 1. Weekly (Long-Term): • Structural Trend: Bullish (higher highs/higher lows) since mid-2022. • Momentum: Cooling (Weekly MACD negative, RSI slipping from overbought). • Conclusion: Still in an uptrend overall, but increasingly vulnerable to corrective pullbacks. 2. Daily (Intermediate-Term): • Trend: Corrective/short-term bearish tilt (price below 10 & 50-Day SMAs). • Support: Key rising trendline near 5,830–5,850; 200-Day SMA around 5,737. • Conclusion: Intact broader uptrend, but near-term momentum is down. Bulls must reclaim ~6,000–6,100 to regain full control. 3. 4-Hour (Short-Term): • Trend: Bearish (lower highs/lower lows, price below major 4H SMAs & Ichimoku Cloud). • Bounce: Price is rebounding off ~5,830. Overhead resistance near 5,950–6,000. • Conclusion: Still bearish unless price closes decisively above ~6,000. 4. 2-Hour (Intraday): • Trend: Dominantly down, but intraday MACD and RSI have turned bullish. • Resistance: 5,940–5,970 (Fib confluence) and ~5,990–6,000 (Ichimoku Cloud base). • Conclusion: Short-term bounce is underway, but the structure remains cautious below 6,000. Overall Bias: • Long-Term: Bullish. • Short-Term: Bearish/Corrective. • Potential for a relief rally if price breaks above ~5,970–6,000. Otherwise, deeper corrections could target 5,830–5,850 or below. 2. Key Levels & Confluences • Major Resistance Zones: • 6,000–6,100: Overhead supply on Daily & 4H, plus 10 & 50-Day SMAs, Ichimoku cloud underside. • 5,970–6,000: 2H/4H Fib confluence and descending trend line. • Major Support Zones: • 5,830–5,850: Short-term bullish order blocks, rising daily trendline, and 2H/4H support. • 5,737: 200-Day SMA, key if the above zone fails. • 5,600–5,400 (Weekly OB) and 5,634 (50-Week SMA): Deeper support if a more significant correction unfolds. • Indicator Confluences: • Weekly Ichimoku → Price well above the cloud, but momentum fading. • Daily Ichimoku → Price near/below the cloud (~5,990–6,000). • MA Clusters → 10 & 50-Day near 6,000; 100-Day ~5,960; 200-Day ~5,737. • Fibs → 5,830–5,970 region offers multiple retracement overlaps on lower timeframes. 3. Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation / Recovery Narrative: Despite recent short-term weakness, the longer-term uptrend is still intact. A rebound could take hold if price holds above critical support (5,830–5,850) and reclaims the Daily/4H resistances near 6,000. Indicators on lower timeframes (2H MACD & RSI) hint at a near-term bounce. 3.1 Aggressive / High-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Look for intraday bullish reversal candles (e.g., 2H bullish engulfing) near 5,840–5,860 support—before a confirmed 4H close above resistance. • This could be triggered if RSI on 2H recrosses above 50 (it already has) and price bounces off a retest of 5,850. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Tight stops just below 5,830 (recent swing low). • Accept the risk of whipsaw if the market tests that area again. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Potential for a strong R:R if the bounce holds; you enter near the bottom of the range. • Cons: High chance of a false breakout or further drawdown if short-term momentum fails. 3.2 Moderate Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Wait for partial confirmation such as a 4H close above ~5,950–5,970 (descending trend line/Fib zone). • Alternatively, a bullish MACD crossover on the 4H chart or price reclaiming the 4H Ichimoku conversion line (~5,950–5,970). • Stop-Loss Placement: • Below the newly formed higher low (e.g., if price pulls back to 5,880–5,900, place stops slightly beneath). • Gives moderate breathing room compared to the ultra-tight approach. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Lower risk of immediate fakeouts. • Cons: May miss the absolute bottom if price reverses sharply without much consolidation. 3.3 Conservative / Low-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Require strong confirmation: a Daily close above ~6,000 (10 & 50-Day SMAs + Ichimoku Cloud) to ensure the short-term trend has flipped bullish. • Prefer RSI (Daily) back above 50 and MACD turning positive on the Daily timeframe. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Wider stop below the 200-Day SMA (~5,737) or below 5,830 pivot if you want a slightly tighter but still “safer” cushion. • Aims to weather typical intraday volatility. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Much higher probability trade aligned with a proven trend resumption. • Cons: Enters at a higher price; your initial R:R might be smaller. 3.4 Bullish Targets & Management • Target 1 (T1): ~6,100 (major overhead supply, near the upper end of daily cloud/resistance). • Target 2 (T2): ~6,200–6,250 (next potential swing high if momentum truly shifts). • Partial Profit / Trailing: • Consider taking partial profits at T1 (~6,100) and trailing stop to break-even. • If price pushes above 6,100, let a portion ride toward 6,200+. • Invalidation: • A Daily close below ~5,830 (or a 4H close well beneath that pivot) undermines the bullish thesis. • Bearish signals on Daily MACD (staying negative) also reduce bullish odds. 4. Scenario 2: Bearish Reversal / Deeper Correction Narrative: Recent breaks below key Daily MAs and a confirmed 4H/2H downtrend indicate the market may extend its pullback. The bounce to ~5,950–6,000 could fail, triggering a new leg lower toward 5,830 or even the 200-Day SMA (~5,737). 4.1 Aggressive / High-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Look to short on a minor retest/failure at intraday resistance (e.g., 2H pivot near 5,960–5,970). • Could also short an immediate break below 5,850 if that level cracks intraday. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Tight stop just above the local swing high (e.g., if shorting near 5,970, stop ~5,995–6,000). • This captures a potential quick continuation lower but risks getting stopped out on whipsaws. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Larger reward if the market breaks down quickly from near-resistance. • Cons: Elevated risk of fake breakdown or sudden bullish intraday reversal. 4.2 Moderate Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Wait for a 4H candle close below ~5,850 (the short-term support / OB zone) or for RSI (4H) to slip back under 50 from its bounce. • Confirm negative MACD cross or downward slope on the 4H chart. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Place stops slightly above the retest zone (5,870–5,880) or the most recent swing high. • Allows for typical 4H volatility around S/R lines. 4.3 Conservative / Low-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Require a Daily close below 5,830 (rising trendline break) and a retest that fails to reclaim that line. • Confirm daily MACD remains negative and RSI stays below 50. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above the nearest significant daily pivot or 200-Day SMA if you’re aiming for a multi-day to multi-week short. • A wide stop to accommodate more volatile corrections. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: High probability of a sustained down-move once that daily trendline is lost. • Cons: The initial break might be fast; you could miss the “best” short entry. 4.4 Bearish Targets & Management • Target 1 (T1): ~5,737 (200-Day SMA) if the immediate support at 5,830 fails. • Target 2 (T2): ~5,600–5,400 (major weekly OB & 50-Week SMA ~5,634). • Partial Profit / Trailing: • Consider locking in partial gains near T1 (200-Day) and trailing stops to break-even. • If momentum accelerates, hold a runner down toward 5,600 or lower. • Invalidation: • 4H or Daily close back above ~6,000 would undercut the bearish premise, as it signals a reclaim of critical MAs and Ichimoku territory. • A bullish MACD crossover on Daily also weakens the short thesis. 5. Risk Management & Position Sizing 1. Volatility (ATR) Awareness: • Weekly ATR ~166; 4H ATR ~44. Elevated intraday volatility means you may need slightly wider stops or smaller position sizes. • For short-term trades (4H/2H), consider using a fraction of your usual size to account for bigger swings. 2. R:R Ratios: • Target at least 1:2 or better. • Scale your position so the max loss is within your tolerance (1–2% of your account per trade). 3. Timeframe Alignment: • Larger positions if Daily & Weekly confirm a direction. • If 4H/2H contradict the higher timeframes, trade smaller or wait for alignment. 4. Partial Profit Strategies: • At T1, take partial off (e.g., 50%) and move stop to entry. • Let the rest ride to T2 if momentum follows through. 6. Timing & Confirmation 1. Candle Close vs. Intraday: • For more reliable signals, wait for 4H or Daily closes at critical S/R (above 6,000 for bullish or below 5,830 for bearish). • Aggressive traders may jump in on intraday wicks or 2H signals but must accept higher whipsaw risk. 2. Market Sessions: • Key breakouts often occur during London or New York opens when liquidity spikes. • If trading overnight or in low-liquidity sessions, be mindful of sudden volatility pockets. 7. Extra Notes & Contradictions 1. Mixed Signals Across Timeframes: • Weekly bullish vs. 4H/2H bearish. This can cause choppy price action. Intraday shorts may still work in a higher timeframe uptrend as a temporary pullback trade. 2. Event & News Catalysts: • Unexpected fundamental events (economic data releases, central bank announcements) can override technical setups. 3. Ranging vs. Trending: • If price stalls between 5,850 and 5,950 for several sessions, we may be in a short-term range. Look to fade extremes until a breakout clarifies direction. 8. Final Summary • Top-Down Bias: • Weekly remains bullish overall but losing momentum. • Daily is short-term bearish, yet still above the 200-Day SMA. • 4H/2H are in a downtrend, but a bounce is in progress. • Key Levels & Confluences: • Support: 5,830–5,850; 5,737 (200-Day); deeper ~5,600–5,400. • Resistance: 5,970–6,000 (short-term), then 6,000–6,100 (major daily overhead). • Scenarios: • Bullish if price holds support (5,830–5,850) and reclaims ~6,000. • Aggressive: Buy near 5,840–5,860 on 2H signals. • Moderate: Wait for 4H close above ~5,950–5,970. • Conservative: Require Daily close above ~6,000 and a bullish MACD on Daily. • Bearish if price fails near 5,950–6,000 or breaks 5,830. • Aggressive: Short rejections around 5,960–5,970 or immediate break of 5,850. • Moderate: Wait for 4H close below 5,850. • Conservative: Require Daily close below 5,830 and retest fail. • Risk Management: • Use ATR to size positions, keep R:R ≥ 1:2, scale out at T1, etc. • Edge Cases / Fundamentals: • Stay alert for macro news or high-impact data that could abruptly change the technical landscape. Bottom Line: We have a long-term bullish market undergoing a short-term correction. A push above ~5,970–6,000 would reassert upside momentum; failure at this zone and a drop under 5,830 could extend the sell-off toward the 200-Day SMA or deeper weekly supports. Select the risk profile (Aggressive, Moderate, or Conservative) that best fits your trading style and capital preservation goals, and always align position sizing with your maximum risk tolerance.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by EliteMarketAnalysis
USDJPY Trade Idea - Bullish Bias### **📈 USDJPY Trade Idea - Bullish Bias** **🔍 Market Outlook:** I am considering **USDJPY bullish** based on the following factors: ✅ **Previous Month Low Sweep:** The price has recently swept the **previous month's low**, signaling potential accumulation before a move higher. 🧹 ✅ **Bullish Monthly Bias:** With the previous low swept, the next target is **monthly buy-side liquidity**, indicating a strong potential for an upward move. 📅💰 ✅ **Break of Structure (BOS):** A shift in market structure is evident, supporting the continuation of the bullish trend. 📊 ✅ **SMC Alignment:** This setup is in line with **Smart Money Concepts**, suggesting institutional involvement in pushing prices higher. 🏦 ### **📌 Trade Plan:** 🔹 **Entry:** Look for a retracement or consolidation near the **previous month's low** before entering long positions. ⏳ 🔹 **Stop Loss:** Below the **sweep low** or swing low, with a reasonable buffer for invalidation. 🚨 🔹 **Take Profit:** Target the **monthly buy-side liquidity** zone for profit-taking. 🎯💵 🔹 **Confluence:** Wait for confirmation of **bullish order flow** and additional **BOS** on lower timeframes (LTF). 🔄 Let me know if you'd like a chart or further analysis! 📊
Long
by Asif_Brain_Waves
NATGAS What Next? BUY! My dear friends, My technical analysis for NATGAS is below: The market is trading on 3.819 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 4.073 Recommended Stop Loss - 3.667 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Up for EUHi traders, Last week EU started impulsive up as I've predicted in my outlook but it could not break the highs and on Wednesday it dropped. Now it could be that this was a leading diagonal (orange wave 1) and price has now finished wave a (grey) of wave 2. In that case next week we could see a correction up and another impulse down to finish wave 2 (orange). Or the last move is wave c (blue) of a bigger wave 4 of the leading diagonal and we could see another impulse wave up. In both cases I expect a move up to minimal the 4H FVG (light blue box). Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bullish and a small correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost or respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
Long
by EduwaveTrading
DXY Trade Idea - Bullish Bias### **📈 DXY Trade Idea - Bullish Bias 🚀** **🔍 Market Outlook:** I am now considering **DXY bullish** due to multiple confluences aligning with **ICT & SMC** principles: ✅ **Break of Structure (BOS):** DXY closed above a short-term high, confirming bullish intent. 📊 ✅ **Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG):** A strong bullish FVG has formed, acting as a potential support zone. 📉➡️📈 ✅ **Unicorn Model + Breaker Block:** ICT structural setup aligns with smart money movements. 🦄📦 ✅ **SMC Confirmation:** Price action is in sync with **Smart Money Concepts**, suggesting institutional participation. 🏦💰 ### **📌 Trade Plan:** 🔹 **Entry:** Wait for a retracement into the **bullish FVG** or **breaker block** for a high-probability entry. 🎯 🔹 **Stop Loss:** Below the recent **swing low** or the invalidation level. 🚨 🔹 **Take Profit:** Target **liquidity above** the next significant high. 🎯💵 🔹 **Extra Confirmation:** Look for **BOS on lower timeframes (LTF)** and **bullish order flow** before executing. 🔄🔍 Would you like me to add a chart analysis or refine the execution details further? 📊📉📈
TVC:DXYLong
by Asif_Brain_Waves