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Waveb

BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Jack Be Nimble. Very.BTCUSD update: It appears Wave B is in play with one more leg expected to retest the high 6ks to low 7ks before the C Wave unfolds taking this market significantly lower. Based on the structure at the moment, the current formation appears to be transitioning into the second leg of Wave B which often looks like a minor retrace of a zig zag formation. A higher low and push to the 6930 to 7330 resistance zone is what I am anticipating as the next move for this market. Like I have been writing about, this is a tricky formation. It does not have to go as high as 6930, it may fail sooner. Or it may go slightly above the 7330 and then fail. There is no way to predict that movement for sure, the best I can do is forecast that as one possibility out of many. The key to using this information is being prepared IF the market chooses this outcome. In terms of day trading, I think there is a good opportunity for longs with a relatively small stop (70 to 100 pts while aiming for a 150 to 200 point target). In terms of swing trades I am open and flexible to go long IF price can retest the 6050 level and show a reversal formation on a smaller time frame (1 hr or 30 min). That support area offers more attractive reward/risk in my opinion for longer time frame strategies (multi day is long for this market). A break below the 6k to 5800 area (.618 of the current bullish swing) will signal that prices are likely going to break the 5400 support and retest the high 4ks (especially if there is a lower high established around the current levels). I keep repeating this because I think it is easy to forget when prices are moving: you must be nimble. That means recognize change and adapt quickly. It is a day trading mindset which has no room for opinions. If you are slow to move, or stubborn, or don't have a clear trading plan with stops and targets predefined, then you really should not be trading this market at all. My plan is simple: Buy the failed low and attempt to capitalize on the retest of the 6900 area. I am flexible, I have no opinions and no ego. To me, it is not about being right, it is about recognizing when variables are lining up that are in line with my plan, and recognizing when they are not and adjusting to that information. It is hard to share this thought process in real time because the market makes its moves when it makes them, and I am not in front of a computer 24 hours a day to write about it. This is why I always say you must learn to think on your own and use analysis like this for context and perspective to help confirm and adjust your own independent interpretation. In summary, the current bullish retrace in this market is not poised to go back to 8k (at least not yet). B Waves often attract a lot of traders thinking they are buying a pullback, but in reality it is setting up for a much broader bearish wave (C Wave). That is the way the structure is unfolding at the moment and it can change. I have written about this situation before only for the market to consolidate and break out to new highs. What makes this situation different from those previous environments is there are 5 clear bullish waves complete which on this magnitude implies a much broader correction or consolidation at least. Don't get stuck on feelings and opinions in this market, it is too fast. TA is your best friend when you need speed, but you have to know it well. An RSI on a 15 minute chart is not going to help you unless you know how to interpret it within the context of the price action going on around it. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
49
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: The Fast And The Flexible.BTCUSD update: This market moves fast. The anticipated retrace is in play as price has taken out the 6469 level signaling bullish momentum. 6950 to 7350 is the resistance zone to watch for the next bearish reversal. As written about in my previous report, the 6950 to 7350 area is the .618 of the recent bearish swing. Often, when a Wave B unfolds, it happens in 3 legs (typical corrective wave). This means from here, price can retrace or consolidate slightly before making another decisive move higher into that resistance zone. If the formation resembles a zig zag going into the 6950 area, I would be anticipating a bearish reversal and the beginning of Wave C. Waves C's are the emotional wave, they are often fast and ugly. IF the market decides to follow the scenario that I am anticipating here, then it may retest the high 4ks from this point. As the Wave B is unfolding, it is possible for price to pullback to the 5870 to 5632 which is the minor .618 of the current move from the 5400 low. IF price retests this area and reverses, it can offer a chance to get in for the completion of Wave B into the 6950 area. That is around a 1k point move that can happen fast (a day or two). Keep in mind the 6950 level is only a possibility and there is no guarantee that price WILL retest the area. It may fail sooner. So here is what all this means: A pullback to the 5870 area may offer a buying opportunity to capitalize on an attempt to push toward the 6950 zone. If price reverses above the 5870 area, it would be a higher low formation which will strengthen the argument even more. For day trading this trade is simple because you can measure risk from smaller time frames and exit for 2:1 or 3:1 without much drama IF you are paying close attention. This can even qualify as a one or two day swing trade, BUT again you must be nimble because any sign of failure and the position must be exited. I do not anticipate this market going back up to 8k in this next bullish retrace. This market is FAST and there are A LOT of IF's. Flexibility is more important than anything else. If you cannot be flexible and recognize changes as they are unfolding, then avoid this market altogether until this corrective formation plays out. Since I am flexible, and this market is so generous with momentum, I am open to take a swing trade long IF price retraces back to the 5870 area and forms a reversal structure within that zone. If I can justify 2:1 or 3:1 based on that structure at that time, I will take the trade, but like I just wrote, the target will either be 6950 or below if price shows signs of turning earlier. I am doing my best to describe trading scenarios, but I cannot force you to understand the concepts of flexibility and change. If the market offers the scenario I just described I will do my best to show the actions that I take by updating this report. At the moment there is a clear relationship with BCH. If price goes lower in this market, BCH goes up and vice versa. From what I understand, BCH solves the scaling problems that BTC is facing. Now that BCH has the world's attention, there will continue to be a tug of war between these two markets which offers more opportunity for day traders in my opinion. Meanwhile the rest of the alts are going nowhere fast. Watch BCH for an inverse relationship. An example is if BTC retests 6950 and fails, in theory, that should be a buying opportunity in BCH. In summary, there is a great deal of momentum pushing this market as well as BCH. This means this is no time for opinions, and where TA will help you the most. If you can't be flexible, then the most you can do is hope things go your way which is NOT a strategy that I recommend. I am watching for the higher low and reversal in the 5870s for a possible long, BUT if it gets there without fulfilling my criteria, I will avoid the trade altogether. And if you are confused by all this, trade forex, its slower. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Is This A Good Time To Buy?BTCUSD Update: Price continues lower as it nears the 6040 support. What makes this area especially notable is that fact that it is the previous range resistance from October (5960 to 6150 highs). This is a likely area for price to retrace into a Wave B counter correction. Price appears to be falling like a rock and scaring out the weak hands. Now the 7500 price action doesn't look so appealing any more. My guess is that most people who bought into the 7ks not wanting to miss the train, are now jumping off the train. At the moment, 6841 is the .382 resistance of the recent bearish swing. This level will keep adjusting lower until price stops making new lows. As long as price stays below this level, it is likely to trend lower, even after a minor bullish retrace to test this level. The bullish retrace I am describing would be the Wave B leg of the correction which is counter to bearish momentum at the moment. Wave B is what sucks in many early longs and then fails to make a new high. This Wave is tricky because it is actually possible for it to retest the previous high or go slightly higher before the C Wave asserts itself. The 6040 area and price range just below 6k (high 5900s) is the old resistance of the October consolidation. This is a high probability area for a price bounce and convenient starting point for Wave B. Is this a place for swing trade longs? No, but day trade sure. Again you must be agile and take profits when you can because a bounce to the high 6900s is not unreasonable over a day or two. Why not a swing trade long? There is no justification of stability on this time frame. When markets are this dramatic, swing trades carry a lot more risk because the more time you are in the trade, the more of a chance things can change and go against you. I would rather initiate a long once I see solid signs of reversal on this time frame, like a double bottom. If day trading though, the chances of a reversal pattern appearing just above the 6040 area but on a smaller time frame are much greater. All you need is a small bounce of 100 points, and have a nice trade on your hands. That is where the opportunity is in this market, again if you have the time, experience and agility. If you think you are going to hold it to 7900 from here, that is where the problems arise. I am interested in a long, but not at these levels unless I see a range, or a large time frame reversal. Also keep mind the money that is migrating out of this market is not exactly going into all the alts. It appears BCH is where the order flow spot light is at the moment. That would be a better market to look for longs in upon a retrace. The question is, when this market bounces, will BCH pull back simultaneously? That would offer a swing trade opportunity long since that market has a ton of potential both near term and long term. In summary, unless you are day trading, this market is not in a position that offers attractive reward/risk for swing trade longs. It is too early to begin buying for a multiday or mulitweek hold in my opinion. For the traders who had the courage and conviction to short and stay short, this is a good area to lock in some profit as well (never hurts to reduce risk). The next resistance is the 6840 area and will likely be an attractive level to short again (to be clear, I do not short these markets). If the next bullish retrace is shallow (stays below 6840) and turns lower, the next leg can take this market into the 5ks. I report what I see and propose scenarios based on the price structure that is present at the moment. Things change extremely fast in these markets, and not getting stuck with an opinion and being flexible to whatever the market throws at you is more valuable than trying to figure out "why" everything is the way it is. It just is. Accept it, trade it or not, adjust and move on. That is the active trading mentality. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Key Resistance Zone.BTCUSD Update: 4212 to 4548 resistance zone implies limited upside and the possibility of a being the price area where a broader Wave C can begin. In my previous report about ETHUSD, I wrote about a Wave B high at 315 which once established, prompted me to stay away from any long swing trades. The bullish structure is not that bullish and overall it is a lower high. I checked the BTC chart as well and the current resistance adds to the bearish argument even further. In this chart, I want to show the Elliott Wave count similarity, potential levels of where this count can lead price, and confirmation levels to know if this market is most likely in a bearish C Wave. Keep in mind, for those of you who are less experienced and expecting the certainty of a weather forecast, you need to understand, technical analysis does not provide any certainty. It provides CLUES as to what scenario is more likely to happen compared to a population of countless scenarios. By having an idea or "Perspective" of what this market can do, you can better prepare IF the market chooses this scenario. The goal is to simplify the decision making process to something like, "If market does this, I do that. If market does not do this, then I do nothing.". Reacting to the market based on impulses, or how YOU interpret news, is completely irrelevant to the market and is the best way to achieve inconsistent and random results. Presently this market is fluctuating in a major resistance zone. 4212 to 4548 is the .618 of the recent bearish swing. Price action and short term structure may appear bullish at the moment, but the resistance, on top of the wave count seriously counter the bullish argument. This price area is a very convenient location for a B Wave to peak which presents a great deal of risk for any new long positions. The reason is the C Wave has the potential to retest the low 3000s and even the low 2000s. Of course in order for that to unfold, there will be strong catalyst or series of catalysts in the market. Often the bearish signals are in place before the news comes out. The level that I am watching to confirm the bearish momentum is 3976 (.382 of most recent bullish swing). A break below that, and the next support to test is the 3481 to 3260. How will I use this information? First, no swing trade longs in any alt coins, even if reversal patterns show up at support levels. And IF the market offers the opportunity to buy at extreme prices like 3000 or below, I will be looking to buy for the long term. There is no precision to that, and now way to know where the bottom is (this is an investment, not a swing trade). Now if I am wrong, the market will have to prove its strength by pushing above this 4212 to 4548 resistance zone. IF this happens, THIS IS NOT A BUY SIGNAL. This price action simply serves as a clue that points to further strength. In that scenario, I reevaluate and find the next best support level. I do not care if price has to go up 300 points without me to prove itself. If you find yourself caught up in the idea of "I'm missing out" then you still have a lot to learn about trading. Also if you are looking for "action", swing trading is probably not a good style for you. In summary, as hopeful and hype full as people are at the moment with this market flirting with the 4200 level, the bigger picture presents a different story. Elliott Wave shows that there is more potential of a B Wave completion, followed by a bearish C Wave, rather than a retest of 5000. A break of the 3976 level will be the first confirmation, followed by a retest of the 3481 to 3260. If the market chooses otherwise, it will have to clear 4548 in which case I reevaluate and look for new support levels to work with. I always keep an open mind and do not worry about what I am "missing out" on. I simply analyze the clues that appear in the price action, and adjust as new information becomes available. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
54
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Not That Bullish.ETHUSD Update: 312 level compromised, but price sold off right back to 300. As I wrote about in my previous report, double tops are not always precise and based on this price action, this can be identified as a double top variation. A double top is a bearish sign, especially on this magnitude. On top of that, the current wave count is not bullish at all, which limits the upside potential of these markets, and I will explain why in a moment. People have asked me why I switch back and forth from using Elliott Wave. I don't switch back and forth, I am always evaluating the wave counts, but when they appear conflicting or confusing, I am not going to write about them in order to maintain clarity in my reports. I choose to present information that makes sense and provides clear insight. The short term price action since the 198 bottom has been conflicting, but obviously bullish. Great for day trading because you limit your risk to small moves, but that kind of evaluation and risk management is up to you. My reports focus on swing trades and taking them when the factors line up to offer the most attractive reward/risk based on the criteria of MY trading plan. It can go without a trade for days, as many of you have noticed, but it is more important for me to control risk, rather than jump into any move just because the market is moving. When this market peaked at 315, I was evaluating the next support levels which are: 292 (.382 of bullish swing) and 276 to 266 (.618 of bullish swing). Then I zoomed out to get more perspective, this is when I realized this market is not as bullish as it appears. The 320 to 352 resistance zone (.618 of bearish swing) is a major area that needs to be cleared to prove this market is not completing a Wave C of a broader B and BTC has the same situation. B Waves are very tricky, and I know some traders have shared charts with the Wave A defined properly, my count was slightly off. In light of this wave count, the sluggish price action makes more sense now. Even if you don't count the waves, the broad resistance zone limits any long swing trade potential at these levels. Especially after the kind of price failure off of the 312 level. If you want to day trade the bullish fluctuations on smaller time frames, that is up to you. As far as potential for swing trades, risk to clearly way too high. I do not want to get long at the highs of a corrective Wave B when the next wave is likely to be the C Wave to complete the corrective structure. This can take prices back to the low 200s at least. On top of that, we have the broader double top in play which looks to be establishing a lower high. All bearish signs. In summary, the recent bullish price action has been slow at times, but looked like the buyers were returning , until you zoom out and see where this market is on the road map. The confirmation that the bearish C Wave is in play would be a break of the 276 to 266 support zone. If this bearish wave asserts itself, there will be plenty of day trading opportunities to get short, but again you have to have your own plan for that. Based on the current price structure, this is the scenario that is more likely to unfold. How will this help me? I know not to expect support levels to hold, and I know that bullish reversals will offer limited potential. In order for the market to prove otherwise, it needs to clear the 320 to 352 resistance zone. Comments and questions welcome. Also special thanks to the Tradingview community again for your support, I am now over 3K followers.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
23
USD/CNY - Correction from 6.9366 coming to an end?The resent strength of the Chinese Yuan has cached the headlines lately, but my Elliott wave count suggest that the correction in wave (B) could be coming to an end in the cluster-area between 6.3625 - 6.3928. As wave v of c of (B) has been the extended wave, we should expect a quick reversal once the low is in place. Short-term a break above 6.5566 will be the first good indication that wave (B) has completed and wave (C) is developing, while a break above resistance at 6.6964 will be needed to confirm the corrective low is in place and a new impulsive rally to above 6.9366 is developing for a rally towards 7.2885.
by EWS
Feeder Cattle - Strong close last week calls for minimum 169.58Last weeks strong close at 149.65 confirms that wave A from 244.80 to 134.13 is complete and a zig-zag correction to at least 176.28 and possibly 189.35 will be seen over the coming months in wave B. Wave v of A turned into an ending diagonal and once this formation is complete a return to the origin of the ending diagonal should be seen in half or less of the time it took to build. In this case it took 28 weeks to build, so a return to the origin at 169.58 should be seen within 14 weeks. However, it's more than likely that the correction in wave B will move higher towards at least the 38.2% corrective target of wave A at 176.28 and possibly even closer to the 50% corrective target at 189.35, but only time will tell. Feeder Cattle continues to display picture perfect waves and behave perfectly to the Elliott Wave Principle.
FLong
by EWS