Wavecount
[Advanced] Bitcoin Elliott Wave Analysis
In my previous breakdown of Bitcoin's chart, I described a very simple approach where i identified significant support and resistance levels for Bitcoin.
- For this chart, I have meticulously counted all significant elliott waves for Bitcoin.
- You can click around, zoom in and out to see the specific wave counts I made for the past price action as well.
- We have currently completed the first wave of the final 5th cycle wave.
- The correction that is taking place could be seen as the second corrective wave.
- While most people have their eyes on $53k, I think there's untapped supply below $53k.
- If we see Bitcoin break and close above $60-61k on the daily, the most probable case would be Bitcoin retesting the $63.6k resistance.
- Breaking through $63.6k would indicate that Bitcoin could resume to the uptrend immediately.
- However, we have broken down the $60-61k range, and attempted to break above it multiple times.
- The chart suggests that this short term upward move not only lacks momentum, but is also considered a mere pullback before a potential leg down.
- The key area of support that I consider to be important is $51.4k.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk.
AMD, Major/Minor correction or progress continuation?Any clue?There are some moments in live wave counting that different scenarios are valid based on Elliott wave certain rules . What can an analyst do in these cases? Is there any clue? Of course there are some guidelines which can help us to give more weight to a possible scenario.
Please note that these are ,as the name suggests, guidelines not rules which means things can deviate from what we consider to be the most probable.
AMD at this point is one of those examples. Several valid wave counting are published for AMD every day. Most of them are valid. Some are optimistic and some are pessimistic. I myself think , based on larger cycle waves, AMD is generally bullish. But what is the most probable next move?
I showed on the chart just two valid wave counting. There are more but we just skip those since the purpose of this publication is education not a trade analysis and these two scenario serve our purpose well enough.
On the left side of the chart we can see a scenario which suggests that a cycle is completed and we are going to have a retracement back to 106 USD and even back to below 100 if we consider a completion of the larger cycle wave ( which is possible).
On the right side of the chart we can see a scenario which suggests AMD is just completed wave 1 of a new wave cycle and after a minor retracement it goes to much higher targets.
Which scenario is more probable now? Here I show you some guidelines:
1- Alternation : wave 2 and wave correction are different in time and characters. As we can see what labeled in left side of the chart confirms this guideline.
2. Volume is highest in wave 3 while price goes higher in wave 5. Again left chart shows it clearly.
3. Slope is highest at wave 3. As it is clear in left side wave count.
4. Optimism is at the peak at wave 5. As you can see on many publication and target analysis these days, majority of analyst talk about 180 TP for AMD.
on contrary there are some guidelines which support right side wave counting. One example is :
1- wave 3 is often the extended wave with clear subdivision ( please note that what labeled on the right side as wave 1 can be just wave 1 of 3 of 3 or wave 3 of 3). So far the most extended wave is the last move up from 99.5 to above 140.
All in All as more guidelines supports left side scenario we can give more weight to it, however we keep it in mind that these are just guidelines not rules.Also we have to consider that we are doing live wave counting. Any further progress without a correction calls for major wave count updates.
Can we have a further clue? Of course. Since a cycle from 99.5 to above 140 is most likely completed we probably will have a correction. The amount of next correction and it's character can help us to choose between possible scenarios. We can update our wave counts as upcoming wave character unfolds.
Please do not hesitate to ask questions if more explanation is needed, We are here to help each other as far as we are able to.
Good luck my friends.
🔥 Natural gas will rise in price three times 🥶●● Preferred count
● NATURALGAS ( Currency.com ) 🕐TF:1W
Globally, the price of natural gas is driven by the third wave of the Grand Supercycle , within which the final wave (V) is developing. Wave (IV) that preceded it took the shape of a w-x-y double zigzag , although one should not exclude further complication before a sideways correction.
● NATGASUSD ( OANDA )🕐TF:1D
Behind the most powerful part of the wave ① of I — Third of a Third — 3 of (3) , on the horizon — a less rapid growth in the fifth waves, followed by a series of downward corrections.
● NATGASUSD ( OANDA )🕐TF:4h
A correction by wave 4 is expected in the form of an expanded flat , the target for which may be the area of the previous fourth .
● NATGASUSD ( OANDA )🕐TF:2h
Wave ⓒ of 4 , presumably, is unfolding the ending diagonal .
●● Alternative count
● NATGASUSD ( OANDA )🕐TF:2h
As an alternative count — wave 4 of (3) is a running contracting triangle . This interpretation implies the resumption of growth within wave 5 from the current levels.
Long position under the conditions of the implementation of the main scenario seems to me less risky, but the alternative count also offers good opportunities for long at current prices.
BTC EOY PredictionBITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Sharing my thoughts on how I think the crypto bull run will finish. I believe that we are currently in wave 3 of the final impulsive wave for BTC. In terms of the entire market cycle we are in wave 5, but we are completing a wave 3 within wave 5. I expect that the bullish momentum will carry us past the current ATH of roughly 65k until we hit 72k to finish wave 3(sometime in the end of this month).
Then I expect a wave 4 correction taking us back down to backtest the previous ATH at 65k (some wicks below) before completing a wave 5 that could take us anywhere between 82k-85k. It is possible that we will have an extended wave 5 reaching towards 100k but I don't think the volume profile supports this.
Once BTC tops I expect there to be a deep A-B-C correction with the A-wave coming down near the highs set in early September. Then a "return to normal" B leg for BTC comes and the Altcoin Mkt cap gets extremely parabolic. This will likely occur near the start of the new year before BTC finishes its retrace to the .702 retracement level and then rolls over to complete a C leg below 40k to begin the bear market.
AUDJPY TREND UPDATEThe idea is still strongly active. Weekly timeframe WAVE 2
With Wave 1 on the daily timeframe completed. A 5 wave internal structure is seen.
A corrective Wave is (ABC) with a 0.5 retracement zone is completed.
The next probable wave is wave 3 the longest and sharpest trend. This trend has a higher probability of being extended to extension zone 2.168. The reason for this bias is on the daily wave 3 is occurring on wave 3 of the weekly timeframe
NZDCAD SWING TRADEHigh probability trade
The analysis begins from the Daily timeframe to the 4-hour timeframe execution zone .
5 wave structure complete with multiple wave structures currently in a 3 wave pattern internal structure (3-3- ((with a possibility of 5 to follow)))
Considering where wave B has ended we should consider a high probability that wave C might only go back to the previous high in the wave structure or point A
GBPJPY DAILY
Daily 5 Impulse wave up completed. Currently in a 3 wave corrective move down on the Daily timeframe.
HOURLY
Wave currently trading likely to be a (3-3-3-3-3) hourly move down in the same manner that wave A moved.
NOTE
Wave c termination likely to be 147.830 which is 0.38 retracement zone and 145.214 which is 0.5 retracement zone
Short Term BUY on US30US30 is moving beautifully with Elliot Wave Theory so far this week. Here we see a correction after the W3 impulse then bottoming out to complete the W4 structure. Now we're starting to form a really nice sub wave within the last impulse wave on the higher time frame(W5). The sub wave (1) shot up then came down to create sub wave (2), which rejected the 61.8% fib level to the T. What we can expect now is another impulse wave upwards to simultaneously complete the Short Term Wave Count and the Longer Term Wave Count. A safe place to take profit would be the sub wave (3), which I've marked "35710".
Litecoin is showing a potential RUN!I am watching LTC here, I like the wave count.
Litecoin has very nice cycles, Kinda like DOGE/BTC but slightly different.
I like cycles, Market cycles, Elliott wave cycles, Planetary cycles, etc.
I think we have more upside for this coin, Major support is quite strong.
Major resistance looks like it can easily be broken.
Stay profitable
- Dalin
BITCOIN - Stop hunt in both directions after triangleWill the bear flag, spotted on the longer time frames, roll out near 15k? (rough 15k target derived by measuring the first move down)
Will global changes, and specific government monetary policies changing to include BTC, have a lasting positive impact on price?
Aside from the wave count question on the chart, the price is fading at resistance, how strong is that resistance?
Stochs says overbought, so sideways for the short term is most likely as not many people win in that scenario.
If I were to trade this I would set a 5% trailing stop from the recent high (41k is the recent high in this case) and think of it as a gamble, as every crypto trade is essentially a casino game.
XAU-USD. The short-term trade base on Elliott Wave Theory(EWT)Currently we are in the (b) of B of (4) wave in an impulsive move that show us the gold will go up next years, but for now we will have an impulsive wave (c) after the correction formation. It is a position that will be held a couple of days.
again BTC ganna fallMy previous analysis about BTC exactly happened. ABC has completed and its ready to finish the zigzag .
There is slight possibility that ABC hasn't finished and it might rise above the invalidation point so trade with money management and put your ST above invalidation point.
BE AWARE If BTC falls, most of the altcoins will fall too.