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Still Need Some Correction For S&P500 / ES Before Going UpAttention: Prices are read on the futures chart, so they might be different if you are reading on cash charts. But directions and realtionships, should be very similar. I believe S&P is in a very volatile correction and it is a bit hard to read. To me it looks like price completed a green (a) of the grey ((y)) wave with a failed 5th and started the green (b) wave with a very aggressive purple a wave. I believe we are now finishing the blue a-b-c correction in a c-wave diagonal and I would like to see it go down to 5110 area in the green box, for the c wave to have room to develop into the yellow box in the 5530 area. If price is heading above the 5630 area, I would start to look for another count, since this would mean the green (a)-(b)-(c) correction should have been a flat, and since the green (a) wave is not counted in three waves, this can't be correct. Right now I would like price to go down to the 5110 area, then back up to the 5530, and then we start the last green (c) wave of the grey ((y)) correction. And this green (c) wave has plenty of room. All the way down to 4176 before it invalidates the count. After all this correction, happy days are starting again, where the 5th wave could be heading for the 6500 to 7000 area.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TheDane
A Zoom of the Weekly DXY into a Daily viewI kept the colored rectangels from my weekly analysis, to keep the focus and knowledge where we are on the chart. DXY is doing a long A-B-C before it's is going into the last impulse og the C of Y of x of the larger degree. It's quite a lot of corrections to manage, but if you swipe from the daily to the weekly timeframe, it makes good sense. For me at least :D. The purple B wave took some time to figure out, but this was what made most sense to me. I was trying to look at it as a triangle, but that wouldn't have a good shape, so I ended out with this white ((w))-((x))-((y)) correction. DXY is right now performing, what I see as, a extended 5th wave in the white ((iii) wave, before it goes into the white ((iv)) correction. The white ((iv) wave correction could be become a long shallow drawn out correction for two reasons. We had a steep and swift white (ii) followed by an extended white ((iii) wave. This usually means we are going to spend some time correcting that white (iii) wave and the rule of alternation tells us, if we have a quick 2nd wave, we are usually going to see a slow fourth wave. I don't believe we have completed the white (iii) yet, so we have a long time to go still until that white (iv) wave is done. When the white (iv) wave is done, the white (v) wave is probaly going to take us down to that green box. So relax for the next 6 months and grab yourself a cup of coffee.
TVC:DXY
by TheDane
2
DXY In Difficult Circumstances Since the Start 80's I decided to give a go at the Dollar Index given the circumstances around the world. And to be honest, I tried to put on the positive glasses. I believe the dollar has been in a complex correction since the mid 80's. Starting out with a large dump in '85 with the a-wave, the correction slowed down and only grew more and more complex. Thought about current wave: What I believe we are going through now is, that we are finishing up the purple C-wave in a green (C)-wave. This wave can end at any time now, since it's now at the 61.8% fib level of the purple A-wave. But it might go down to the 95 level (The green box) to complete at the 100% fiblevel of the purple A-Wave. But first we will have the fourth wave meaning the DXY is gonna struggle for some weeks. Because we had a swift two week wave 2, which means we are probably going have a slow fourth wave according to the rule of alternation. This mean the purple C-wave could drag out into the end of '25 into early '26. This is also with that in mind that a C-wave most likely will take longer than an A-wave. These are the Purple boxes. BUT, after this, DXY is gonna experience some happy years again, going back up to the yellow box somewhere between 110 and 120 to finish the WXY of x of the larger degree. This will take DXY into a couple of years bull-run as long as the green (C) wave runs and completes no earlier than late '27, depending when the purple C-wave prior to the green (C) wave ends. But I believe the green (C)-wave will take about two years to complete. But after this, DXY could again go into some dark ages and considering the high degree purple w-wave took 23 years to complete (blue giant box), there is no reason to believe this high degree purple y-wave will be a swift matter and actually don't complete before the year 2050. And it will take the DXY all the down to start 60's or lower. The reason I said I tried to put on the positive glasses, is that I tried seeing the white channel as a leading diagonal for a new bull run, but I just don't see it as such. I also tried seeing it as a C-wave of a flat diagonal, but this would result in another C-wave afterwards, and also take us down to the 60's level. So that didn't do us any good. For the sake of DXY, I hope I'm wrong, but this is how I see it.
TVC:DXY
by TheDane
2
XAG getting ready for another run down.I believe XAG has finished the blue ((c)) of green (iv) with an ending diagonal, and now doing the first 1-2 of the green (v) wave of gray ((c)). The price might do a very small retrace to 31.12 before starting a 3rd wave down. I believe the green (v) is going to the green box area at 28.15 - 27.40 area. But I actually have a weekly trendline lower down, which the price might want to go won and test, which also fits with the idea that the (v) wave could go all the way to the 100% Fiblevel of (i)+(iii) level. This would mean the price would probably test the 25.0 level.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by TheDane