DJIA, A comprehensive analysis from 1932 to 2022 ! Whats next?Hi great followers, traders and investors !
Today, We analyzed one of the most important indices in US market. I decided to record a video since I thought that it may be difficult to show what I am thinking in writing. In fact, I wish to transfer my idea better by this video.
In this video, We investigate Worst, Moderate and Best case Scenarios. We analyzed the index from 1932 to 202022 and discussed different possible scenarios. We can never predict the future without looking to the past.
As I told in video, what I currently suppose to be the most likely scenario is the moderate one, but we have to keep in mind that other scenarios even bullish one is possible therefor, we have to be open-minded and be ready for all possibilities.
Good Luck every body.
Wavecycle
BABA, a beautiful example of ANTI complete cycle !BABA is a beautiful example of ANTI complete cycle !
Many Elliott wave practitioners are not aware of different types of wave cycles ! They may consider themselves as a genius in a bull market ( As everyone else !! ) but suddenly thing change and they can not understand what is happening in a stock or market !
On the left side of the chart there is a schematic drawing showing an ascending complete cycle . In this well know wave cycle waves go up in 5 leg and go down in 3 legs. Correction will never go below the start of wave cycle in this type ( does it go in some other types? of course goes ) !!.
Many investors and traders were hoping for this cycle ( and may be were not aware of alternatives ) in BABA, opened long position at the possible end of wave 4 at related retracement levels and now have lost huge amount of money !!!
An ascending ANTI complete cycle is shown on the right side of the chart. In this cycle waves go up in 3 legs and go down in 5 legs and correction will never go below the start of the wave cycle. Does BABA play like this wave cycle? So far yes.
Is there any other alternative ? Of course yes ! please note we have many other types of wave cycle and we just showed two of them here !. For example, we have neutral or descending antic cycles ( for example of descending anti cycle see my related idea about BROS stock ).
It is worth to note many Chinese stocks like TIGR and XPEV showed anti cycles and this is not a surprise as BABA is leading Chinese stocks in the market.
Things sound complicated? Yes they are ! but we can extract many useful tips among all these complications :
1. Overconfidence is dangerous ! always set stop loss . Things may change suddenly in a way that we did not predict.
2. Be mindful there are many types of wave cycles . Things are not as simple as they may seem at first look.
3. Do not jump blindly into a long position after apparent up going 1 2 3 form of wave !
4. Retracement more than 50 % in what we consider a wave 4 is a dangerous warning.
We can add many other implications to the list by thinking deeply about different types of wave cycles. Hope this publication to be helpful.
Good luck every one !
BROS, A descending Anti cycle may develop !Hello my friends.
This is for informing you that a descending anti cycle may develop in BROS !
Lets keep talking about what is an anti cycle for an appropriate time. I may devote one of my "Educational Publications " to this very interesting topic.
For now lets consider this is a real probability and we are trying to make profit from a short position:
Sell point : 48.95 which has already past
Stop loss : 57.1
Long term target : Below 20
Good luck everybody.