BTC - First peg in ground. What's the next key decision point?There you go folks. We all knew it had to come back at some stage! My chart the last few days called for a potential reversal at 9800 (one of a few key levels). Now we know where it turned (one peg in the ground).
The next key thing that I see which needs to play out is whether this wave is Wave 2 of an impulse up or Wave E of a Triangle Wave.
Let me explain. There are two possibilities plotted above.
The first is shown all in BLUE from the BTC all time high at 19.9k. This shows a running flat ABC correction, which ended at 6425. After that we started an impulse wave up and the euphoria set in as wave 1 reached a peak of 9767. Now we could be in wave 2. The end of this, I cannot tell you ... but one major thing that sticks out at me is the All Time High Trend Line ... will it bounce off the top of that (around 8000ish)? Don't get confused with micro waves, where this current correction may stop at 8800 or 8500, followed by a small correction up, then another drop down. I am talking where does it end on the grand scale. Depending on how fast it drops, it could be around 8000 to 8200. Remember CME futures expire in 2 days ... so it could be fast.
The second possibility is shown all in RED from the BTC all time high at 19.9k. This shows a triangle wave, and wave D ended at 9767. This presumes we have started wave E now. If this is the case, wave E would go down to the 6700 to 6800 level and a possible extension past that is very possible. If it does break the lower boundary of the triangle the obvious bounce points would be 6425 and 6000, where we hit the two previous lows. I still like the concept of a double (or triple) bottom confirmation to set off a bull run. Imagine, after the last bull run, and then knowing it isn't going lower than 6k or 6.5k ... the bulls will have some mega power to work with.
So, how do we know what's going on. I'd say the biggest factor will be staying above that all time high trend line. Note, I might need to draw a new one to the recent high of 9767, but if we pass that, the one on my chart will definitely come into play, and I'd think this is the lowest it can reach to call it an impulse wave. If we drop below this, I'd say we are clearly in the gravity of the triangle. Obviously, no guarantees ... but again, watch between here and 8000, I'd say. Below that, I'll start preparing for a 6700 bottom, with potential wave E extension all the way to 6k. If we do bounce above 8000, it clearly invalidates the triangle wave theory, and would set off what I hope is a massive wave 3 of the impulse, and I'd expect that to test the 11.7k high.
I've drawn some very rough impulse waves in blue and red ... please don't take the levels literally. It's guesses, based on key points. Too hard to predict that far out. I show them more to help people understand the concept of the two theories. One thing is for sure, I am eager to find the bottom of this wave (whether it is E wave or wave 2), as I expect a great run up either way!
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make investment decisions using this information. For educational purposes only.
