Waves
Neo Wave Learner doubtWhat is the difference between projection overlapping and "obviously different in price and/or time" in NEO Wave? In Pre-Constructive Rules of Logic, Rule#1, Condition_b, Paraghraph_4, it states "If part of m2's price range is shared by m0 and m3 is longer and more vertical than ml during a time span equal to (or less than) ml and m(-1) is shorter than ml and m0 and m2 are obviously different in price or time or both and m4 (or m4 through m6) returns to the beginning of ml in a time period 50% of that consumed by ml through m3, a 5th Extension Terminal pattern may have completed with m3; add ":c3" to ml's Structure list."
Here, m0 and m2 should share price range, which means projection overlapping, at the same time, it is mentioned, m0 and m2 should be obviously different in price&/time.
Experts please help..
Also, Mr. Neely mentioned, "m1 is longer than m3" in few other places, does the length means, by means of distance between 2 price points or by means of time distance or should i consider a multiple..
Waves Rally Finally Reached The EndThere is a swelling storm
And I'm caught up in the middle of it all
And it takes control
Of the person that I thought I was
The boy I used to know
But there is a light
In the dark, and I feel its warmth
In my hands and my heart
Why can't I hold on?
It comes and goes in waves
It always does, always does
We watch as our young hearts fade
Into the flood, into the flood
this is having its double top/ blowoff on a day when bitcoin is down badly.
this is indicative that speculators are rotating into waves for one last haven of bullish liquidity.
look for a rapid volume slow-down and price to crawl back down to sub $40 in April
Apple is near key levelsFirst of all, forgive me to draw so much in this chart but AAPL is on fire and we've to take a close look to price movements because we could see awesome opportunities soon.
We all know AAPL, amazing business, great margins but now suffering some issues with production that can lead to some volatility.
In this chart, you can see:
1. A very big historical bullish channel in grey that give us resistance prices in the 100-110$ level.
2. An amazing expanding triangle unfolding with potential price objective at 100-110$ zone. Take care, I'll explain further this price formation and why it could end at 120 or 115$ the movement.
3. The RED danger zone explained in the idea of few days ago. The break of this support led to -7% returns by now.
4. The small downtrend blue line that was our previous idea. We expected a bullish break that never happened, instead we've seen the break of the danger zone support, so our mind is bearish since then in AAPL. (Please see previous idea to understand this in detail).
5. Some blue lines that are major resistances, the lowest one in the 105-110$ zone. Note that this is also the expected zone of 1 and 2.
Expanding triangle explanation
An expanding triangle is a chart pattern that occurs in a trend and is characterized by a series of higher lows and lower highs. This pattern is formed by two trendlines that converge towards each other as the price moves in a wide range. The upper trendline represents resistance and the lower trendline represents support.
As the price approaches the apex of the triangle, it becomes increasingly volatile, and a breakout is likely to occur. If the price breaks out to the upside, it is a bullish sign and may indicate that the trend will continue higher. If the price breaks out to the downside, it is a bearish sign and may indicate that the trend will reverse.
The consequences of an expanding triangle in the market depend on the direction of the breakout and the strength of the trend leading up to the pattern. If the breakout is strong and the trend is bullish, it may lead to further price increases. If the breakout is weak and the trend is bearish, it may lead to a reversal or consolidation in the price.
By now, we see a wave 3 which is 1,618 times the first wave. We expect a wave 5 which could be 1,618 times the wave 3, this would move the price to 110$, again this zone... Take care, by now wave 5 is slightly more than 100% of wave 3, so the triangle could end at any time, but for us makes sense to wait for lower prices to have a better risk reward ratio.
Ahead we have 120$ and 115$ levels which are also important previous supports and resistances and could lead to some bounces or eventually to the end of the pattern. Let's keep watching!
Worst case
If the price loses the 105$ level, we have no historical volume until 80$ so a crash could happen easily. Anyway, the 105-110$ zone is strong enough to believe that demand will appear there and the expanding triangle could then be confirmed.
Higher resolutionHigher resolutions aka lower timeframes have several uses:
HIgh res levels
1) For more precise entries past the positioned levels. You have a level on your current resolution, a level you want to use, let's call it "X". You turn in higher resolutions, and scale in around the levels there, past the X;
2) For precise entries during positioning. You have a level that you expect to be positioned 'that way', let's call it "Y". You turn in higher resolutions, and scale in around the levels there, past the Y. An example on the chart is exactly about that. Suppose we expected a 1M level (red line) to be positioned as support. We've opened 1W chart and scaled in at 1W levels below the level;
3) Overridden levels. Forgot to mention, just as overridden waves, overridden levels do exist. It really concerns an imaginary level called value aka fair price. Usually, when you have an overridden wave -> value level in the middle of this wave, the real levels around value exist only deep in higher resolutions, and are already cleared, long time ago. So, they kinda "reactivate" again inside an overridden wave, near the value;
4) For scaling out. When offloading risk, you don't want to do it at the levels that You, yourself, expect to be cleared xD. And that includes the levels from the high ress.
HIgh res waves
1) To fine tune the location of back levels. Positioning of a level on a given resolution is a so called pattern seen on higher resolutions. I can't say much about the predictive power of dem patterns, but can say for sure that fine tuning the back levels by finding boundaries of these patterns is a good idea;
2) Simply monitoring the action on higher resolutions gives information about what's happening around your levels of interest. Everything explained in "Current resolution" can be applied there.
You may come up with more uses. The main part is to understand what higher resolutions are: less data in greater detail. Now how would you leverage this info?
Lower resolutionMore data on lower resolutions, smth that others call higher timeframes.
Low res waves
While being on a given resolution, the lower resolutions are mostly used to understand the trends within the overall fractal. In general, you want to trade along with the strong low res wave, and don't trade against an exhausted low res wave. While being on given resolution, you're interested in all the lower resolutions, not only in the first adjacent one. So if you operate on 1H charts, you also need to consider 6H, 1D, 1W etc, not only 6H.
For example, imagine being in a strong up trend on 1W chart. It won't go 4 ever. There's no exhaustion in 1M wave. But here we go, and exhaustion on 1Q chart. And "suddenly", the levels on 1W chart start to position as resistances! Before that, the overall trend on 1Q surely showed some weaknesses, but there was no evident evidence. This kind of info could've been only gained from more data.
Low res levels
Now that's really interesting. As I mentioned somewhere before, while being on any resolution, ALL the levels from ALL the lower resolutions should be monitored. That's why people say that it's harder to trade on lower timeframes (higher resolutions), simply because they don't know that simple fact I just mentioned. They see a reversal "in the air", but, as you already know, there's always a level. So, a level from 1Y chart does matter on 1 minute chart. Yes, it does. How?
The action around low res levels are somewhat common with the action around option strikes. In a sense, it's a microstructural phenomena as well. Without further analysis, what you know 4 sure is that low res levels might produce reactions, even if a level is from 1Y chart and you are on 1 sec chart. In general, they allow rapid price moves to come through, and produce reactions when prices approach these levels in normal way.
Why? As you know, it becomes cheap/expensive PAST the level, never before. Now imagine price comes to a level in a usual manner, or even slower. Chances for a deep dive past the levels are low. What you do? You scale in closer to the level. And now imagine price flying fast. It'll make sense to scale in deeper with a bigger size, to get better prices, to reduce risks. Why not if the market activity allows it?
It's a 1H chart on the screen there, and the yellow level is a support from 1W chart. Take a look how the 1H action unfolds around that level.
Current resolutionAside of the usual things ie waves & levels, being on a given resolution, mainly we are interested in the direction in which trading activity develops (so called, trend, gradient, slope etc). It is not exactly necessary if you follow a vehicle on every resolution, this way you always know the direction by simply understanding whether we are in low res buying wave or we are in low res selling wave. Still it's useful, especially for spotting in real time how the trading activity reverses, how a low res wave ends (or not) .
All these higher high and lower lows, mark ups & mark downs, trend lines (omg), "value" moving up or down, it was all close but not exactly on point.
A trend aka tendency has not much doing about movement per se, it's all about a certain sequence of events.
After numerous logical experiments, you will arrive to the following minimalist understanding. First let's define 2 things: long event and short event.
Long events:
1) a level gets positioned as support;
2) a resistance gets cleared;
Short events:
1) a level gets positioned as resistance;
2) a support gets cleared;
When you see a sequence of 2 unidirectional events in a row, it means you have a tendency = trend.
1) when you see multiple long events in a row (2 is enough), this is up trend;
2) when you see multiple short events in a row (2 is enough), this is down trend;
3) when there's no sequence, this is "everything else";
Everything else is in fact a loosely defined case. Yes by definition it's the iteration between long & short events, and it works well, however this kind of activity may 'invite" emergence of very short lived trends (2 unidirectional events).
That tells us this:
1) While being in an up trend, levels are expected to be positioned as supports and then hold when approached by the exhausted selling waves.
2) While being in a down trend, levels are expected to be positioned as resistances and then hold when approached by the exhausted buying waves.
3) While being in a "everything else" situation. You expect an iteration of long & short events.
There are clues that can help in dealing with "everything else" cases, provided by comparative analysis between positioned level and waves.
Comparison between levels is made the same way as with waves. Best of 3:
1) Price: distance between front & back parts of a level. Narrower - stronger;
2) time: a level that formed later in time is always stronger;
3) volume: you compare the current amount of volume gathered & consumed during positioning & testing processes. Higher remaining volume - stronger level.
This way you can take 2 levels and obtain a binary answer which level is stronger. Now, you can compare the current level (the last level that was positioned) and the previous level positioned in the opposite direction. While being in "everything else" situation, in general, that'll mean comparing a support below and resistance above. Prices tend t go where it's easier.
Yet another thing you can do is to compare waves as explained in "Wave exhaustion", but this time you'll be comparing current wave and the previous wave in the opposite direction. While being in "everything else" situation, in general, that'll mean comparing the current wave with the previous wave, and that wave will have the opposite direction. Comparing these 2 waves, you'll now in which way the order flow is stronger.
On the chart, you can see a red arrow, a bar that produced 2 short events in a row: positioning of 3896 as resistance and clearing the support at 3890.
Btw, another thing you can do is comparing levels in the same direction while being in a trend. When the're such sequence that levels in the same direction become weaker and weaker, usually it means that the overall trend is loosing motive strength.
That's the info you can gain being on a given resolution, without having any other data.