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[09/29] Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis After a sharp drop from the night of the 27th, there are more ups and downs than expected. In the case of a normal adjustment wave, it is often returned to 0.382 / 0.5 / 0.618 of the trend wave and then proceeded to the trend again. The black square section is considered to be a downward impulse wave. After the fall impulse wave ended, it returned nearly 0.618 of the fall. *The reason for viewing the black section as a falling impulse was because a very strong transaction volume occurred in the part predicted to be 3 waves, and the falling angle was also very steep. There are two probability scenarios that are shown on the current basis. 1. 19.8k was the high point, and when it was slightly lowered after being hit by resistance near Fibonacci 0.618, the upward reversal ended. Now it will go down to a downward impulse. (Blue Path) 19.8k is not yet a high point, but there is one more high point renewal left. It will slightly renew its 19.8k high and start a downward impulse. (Purple Path) Not both of these, but we also have to be prepared for a rise The position where the black interval drop-pulse view is discarded is 20.4k. If you break through 20.4k, there is a high possibility of an additional increase. The downward impulse perspective is also discarded. Until 20.4k, I would like to recommend short positions, and if you pierce it, you should report the situation and respond flexibly! The market is very difficult these days, so let's make good results with flexible responses :) These days, I feel that the intestines have more fakes and the difficulty has increased a lot. As waves emerge differently than before, many people are having difficulty predicting. The more this type of market is, the more we need to focus on responding. Be sure to think that your predictions may be wrong when trading, and think about how you will respond if the predictions and charts flow differently. :)
Short
by BeastTrading_Sehyun
ZIM bounceNYSE:ZIM I see ZIM stock fallowing Baltic Dry Index with a lag. As we observe a bounce in BDI we can expect the same in ZIM stock price. From a technical point of view the same thing. We are now in wave 5 of an impulse wave down. which could also be done. So from wave analysis point of view we can expect a correction up, most likely to the minor wave 4 extreme. in the region of $34. And financially the company is rock solid. Disclaimer: This is my analysis and does not constitute financial advice.
NYSE:ZIM
by WavesInvesting
2
[09/27] Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Finally, the boring convergence seems to be over. Eventually, it deviated upward from the convergence pattern, rose slightly, and then rose in the morning with trading volume attached, and now it seems that the wave frame is being taken little by little. Up to 18.1k, it came down to five waves, and it seems that the waves have ended, and the current section after that is important 18.1k - 19.5k = A 19.5k to 18.8k = B (Triangle convergence) It seems that the C wave has been rising since 18.8k. If this ABC wave is a "B wave" in this big picture and the selling pressure is a little severe, and the C wave does not come out short, it is likely to go up to 20.3 to 20.4k. After that, it is expected to fall quite strongly with five waves, and it is likely to break 17.6k in this downward wave and renew its previous low. We recommend that you do not hold a long position or respond briefly, and if there is a rebound up to 20.3k, it is better to enter a short position by looking at the trend change signal on the line!
Short
by BeastTrading_Sehyun
4
US10Y Elliot Wave Analysis (fun might be over) **WHERE DO WE START** At this point it is nearly unarguable that the move up form the Covid lows looks impulsive, meaning we are in some sort of a new bull cycle. In the past, since US10Y's inception back in the late 1970s the path it followed had a downwards trajectory that made new lows after each bull cycle was done. The US10Y would then correct those lows over the next 2-4 years or so and retrace to .5 fib or .618 fib of the previous high. It did this every single time, however in 2022 it is acting very different. For the first time in history since inception the US10Y blasted through the .618 fibonacci retracement of the previous top which was in November of 2018. My view was bearish for most of this year since we were coming up against strong resistances, however since the price pierced through them all with little effort and continued up makes me lean bullish on the Macro outlook. **TRUNCATION** Truncation (definition) - What is truncation in trading. In most impulses, the fifth of the Elliott waves extends beyond the extremum of the third wave, but sometimes the fifth wave may not reach the end of the third wave . This phenomenon is called truncation or truncated wave. The next event I need to go into is the truncation of the 5th wave down that took place in August of 2020. Truncations are rare events in Elliot Wave Theory and require very careful analysis to ensure the count is not something different. It is more likely to see a truncation in very volatile environments, and Covid crash of 2020 was undoubtably one. This truncation does not show up on US05Y or US02Y leading me to believe the actual bottom on US10Y was in August of 2020 and NOT in March of 2020. However this doesn't change the current count, just some clarification for those using Elliot Waves. **WHERE ARE WE NOW** Since the bottom we see an impulse up of which waves (1) and (2) are complete and wave (3) is in progress currently finishing it's 5th subwave. I expect the price to come to 4% or even 4.5% before the likelihood of a pullback for wave (4) becomes highly likely. The wave (4) retracement should be relatively large pulling back to .236 or .382 on the fibonacci levels from the top of wave (3). The price could come down to 2.75% - 3.5% on US10Y depending on how high wave (3) ends up going, although wave (4) pullback is allowed to go as low as .5 fib which could bring the US10Y down even below 2.75%, but I must say I find that unlikely considering how bullish this move up is coming to be. **LIKELY PRICE PATH** What's beginning to look clear is that after we finish wave (4) in a 3 wave structure down or perhaps a triangle formation (common in wave 4 pullbacks), we are still going to need to complete the impulse sequence and start a wave (5) up. Yes, I expect US10Y to hit and possibly go past 5%. Once there we have a completed wave 1 on a Macro outlook since the crash of 2020. I will then expect government treasury bond yields to enter a short term "bear market" and correct the entire move shown in the chart as red ABC down. This could then be last great pullback... and an opportunity to buy a house at a very affordable rate. Why? Because once this ABC that will correct this entire bull move up is done, we should see continuation in rising interest rates in a new bull cycle up. A 5 wave Elliot impulse is not a complete sequence, it should be followed by a 3, 7, or 11 wave down correction. Typically retracing to .5 or .618 on fibonnaci retracement levels and continue up again in a minimum of 5 waves. **CONCLUSION** The era of cheap rates might be coming to an end, and 2020 covid crash might have marked a long term bottom on treasury yields. Cheers,
TVC:US10YLong
by Elliot618