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US10Y Elliot Wave Analysis (fun might be over) **WHERE DO WE START** At this point it is nearly unarguable that the move up form the Covid lows looks impulsive, meaning we are in some sort of a new bull cycle. In the past, since US10Y's inception back in the late 1970s the path it followed had a downwards trajectory that made new lows after each bull cycle was done. The US10Y would then correct those lows over the next 2-4 years or so and retrace to .5 fib or .618 fib of the previous high. It did this every single time, however in 2022 it is acting very different. For the first time in history since inception the US10Y blasted through the .618 fibonacci retracement of the previous top which was in November of 2018. My view was bearish for most of this year since we were coming up against strong resistances, however since the price pierced through them all with little effort and continued up makes me lean bullish on the Macro outlook. **TRUNCATION** Truncation (definition) - What is truncation in trading. In most impulses, the fifth of the Elliott waves extends beyond the extremum of the third wave, but sometimes the fifth wave may not reach the end of the third wave . This phenomenon is called truncation or truncated wave. The next event I need to go into is the truncation of the 5th wave down that took place in August of 2020. Truncations are rare events in Elliot Wave Theory and require very careful analysis to ensure the count is not something different. It is more likely to see a truncation in very volatile environments, and Covid crash of 2020 was undoubtably one. This truncation does not show up on US05Y or US02Y leading me to believe the actual bottom on US10Y was in August of 2020 and NOT in March of 2020. However this doesn't change the current count, just some clarification for those using Elliot Waves. **WHERE ARE WE NOW** Since the bottom we see an impulse up of which waves (1) and (2) are complete and wave (3) is in progress currently finishing it's 5th subwave. I expect the price to come to 4% or even 4.5% before the likelihood of a pullback for wave (4) becomes highly likely. The wave (4) retracement should be relatively large pulling back to .236 or .382 on the fibonacci levels from the top of wave (3). The price could come down to 2.75% - 3.5% on US10Y depending on how high wave (3) ends up going, although wave (4) pullback is allowed to go as low as .5 fib which could bring the US10Y down even below 2.75%, but I must say I find that unlikely considering how bullish this move up is coming to be. **LIKELY PRICE PATH** What's beginning to look clear is that after we finish wave (4) in a 3 wave structure down or perhaps a triangle formation (common in wave 4 pullbacks), we are still going to need to complete the impulse sequence and start a wave (5) up. Yes, I expect US10Y to hit and possibly go past 5%. Once there we have a completed wave 1 on a Macro outlook since the crash of 2020. I will then expect government treasury bond yields to enter a short term "bear market" and correct the entire move shown in the chart as red ABC down. This could then be last great pullback... and an opportunity to buy a house at a very affordable rate. Why? Because once this ABC that will correct this entire bull move up is done, we should see continuation in rising interest rates in a new bull cycle up. A 5 wave Elliot impulse is not a complete sequence, it should be followed by a 3, 7, or 11 wave down correction. Typically retracing to .5 or .618 on fibonnaci retracement levels and continue up again in a minimum of 5 waves. **CONCLUSION** The era of cheap rates might be coming to an end, and 2020 covid crash might have marked a long term bottom on treasury yields. Cheers,
TVC:US10YLong
by Elliot618
[09/26] Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Bitcoin seems to continue to move within the convergence, so I would like to raise the market with NASDAQ analysis today because the content is the same as yesterday's market. First, the time frame is a candle in a day. The NASDAQ is showing that it's hitting nearly 16,800 points on a daily basis and turning completely downward Intuitively seen, Elliott Wave Analysis appears to be strongly descending with five impulses in the red section, three abc in the yellow section, and three waves in the green section. If it falls like this, the previous low of 10980 line is likely to be broken at once, and if that line is broken, it is predicted that the 10,000 line will be broken and it will fall to 8,000 to 9,000 lines. Since Covid, NASDAQ and Bitcoin have become very strong in their coupling. Especially these days, since NASDAQ is moving ahead of Bitcoin a lot, you should also pay attention to the decline in Bitcoin in the current situation where NASDAQ is unstable. The dollar index remains strong, and the upward trend shows no signs of slowing down. It's very difficult to move because I'm not renewing the low point and I'm walking sideways from the bottom. If you don't get the seat you thought of, it's good to stop selling for a little while!
SKILLING:US100Short
by BeastTrading_Sehyun
2
UPDATE ON BANK NIFTY, ICICI AND HDFC BANK along with NIFTY 50!recently, bank nifty gave a good bull, and now a small correction it has faced. ANALYSIS ON NIFTY 50 WAVES(check link): currently now nifty has completed its 4th wave, 5th wave will begin soon on Tuesday or Wednesday around. this impulsive movement will basically come from PHARMA AND IT sector. but there are even some large cap stock which are slow in nature and yet not completed there impulsive move. so this 5th wave will also act as a support to move those companies who are still lagging behind to complete there bull run. now if nifty50 falls, then such companies will not get a space to continue there movement, and such a thing has a very less probability to happen. ANALYSIS ON BANK NIFTY AND ITS STOCKS: hdfc has to rise a lot, and icici has to correct in a good manner. this match will make the bank nifty to hold its position, and make it stable. 1. hdfc has a weightage of 26% in bank nifty and has to rise about 20% 2. icici has a weightage of 24% in bank nifty and has to correct about 12% 3. axis and kotak are in there trend lines, but will reach its top supporting the bank nifty. so this 3 matches will make the bank nifty to stay within the range of (42200-38200) i will post the same analysis in other bank with bank nifty posts too. currently i am short on icici bank and bullish on hdfc.
NSE:ICICIBANKShort
by raghavchoudhary2016
Elliott Wave DegreesRalph Nelson Elliott acknowledged 9 degrees of waves from the Grand Super Cycle degree which is found in weekly and monthly time frame to the Sub-minute degree which is found in the hourly time frame. He labelled them as below mentioned. 1 Grand Super Cycle 2 Super Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Primary 5 Intermediate 6 Minor 7 Minute 8 Minuette 9 Sub-Minuette It is a good understanding to start applying a wave count to a market from higher degree to all the way lower degree which you want to trade. you need to first learn about the labeling of wave degrees. Elliott Wave is a very helpful to understand the charts of any assets. the waves from the main degree are subdivided into intermediate waves which also subdivided into minor waves and the minor waves are also subdivided into minutes waves and then to sub-minutte waves, each degree of waves consists of one full cycle of motive and corrective waves. each degree of trend is labelled with a different style of label for a better understanding. If you want to trade in 4H so then you will look for and count the monthly, weekly and the daily charts is will. Hope you understand the concept of wave degrees.
Education
by TheLoserMan
[09/24] Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Bitcoin is still moving up and down and not showing direction. So when I counted the Elliott waves on the 15-minute bar, there was an intuitive wave First of all, from the high 22.8k taken during the CPI announcement to the low point renewed after the FOMC announcement, it seems to be too five waves. It was counted neatly to the Cebu wave. And it's an important current segment, and I thought that if bitcoin doesn't show directions easily and keeps moving up and down, maybe it's showing convergence. It's actually showing a movement that's pretty close to convergence. Elliot's wave shows that the last wave of convergence, the E wave, is coming down, and if you leave the bottom line of convergence, you can start a new downward wave and fall pretty strongly. Bitcoin is nearing the end of convergence, so you should be careful of excessive entry and continuing to water. *Elliot wave theory suggests that the E wave, the last wave of convergence, may come out short, so it would be good to shorten the sale or wait and see until it leaves convergence.
Short
by BeastTrading_Sehyun
3
NIFTY 50, WAVES- REUPDATED!!in my previuos analysis of nifty50 waves(i will mention the link), i had drawn the waves which existed with the 2 major black line(drawn out in chart), i had thought nifty 50 will complete its 5 wave bull run impulsve movement, in that trend itself. but due to the affect of US markets, nifty is fluctuating(same acts for NIFTYIT too), so it will now hold that support(drawn in black line), which is drawn from the markets getting consolidating, after the 2020's bull run. and end up in same trend line which was going previously. today(23rd sept), when the markets opened which gave a breakdown to my analysis, i had drawn out the purple line, and today the same days when markets got closed, supporting my line, i am confirmed now with my waves. therefore this analysis even says that US markets will also recover very soon, and will give its bull run.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
2
More upside for Treasury Yields The treasury yields have been in a decline for many decades, on the other side we have a very unique situation in the equity market. We have over evaluations in many markets, especially in the tech sector that was fueled by the billions of dollars pumped into our economy during he pandemic. The interest rates were heavily suppressed and this country experienced the lowest multi-decade interest rate environment in history. Like a charged spring it was ready to burst; we can see the bottom being reached in August of 2020 as everyone rushed to buy, refinance, take loans, buy cars and borrow more debt with the assistance of the stimulus payments. Of course this caused inflation to go through the roof. Looking at the chart from an Elliot Wave perspective, keeping it simple and clean to understand, we can see an incomplete sequence with a beautiful extended 3rd wave, that is currently in progress of finishing wave "v" of the "(3)". I then expect a sizable 3 waves or triangle pullback down for wave "(4)". After the wave (4) pullback the sequence will still look incomplete and I will expect another wave (5) to the upside and into 2023. This will surely way heavily on mortgage lenders, those looking to buy a home, auto, or take out any new debt. Suddenly a 5% rate on US05Y becomes realistic. I expect other US treasury bonds like the 2, 10, 20, 30 year to rise and have similar wave structure as well.
TVC:US05YLong
by Elliot618