Bitcoin - Time to buy again!Currently, it can be said that Bitcoin has completed its fourth corrective wave and from now on, the price can be expected to rise to the top of the triangle.
If the triangle breaks, we expect a new ATH to occur, but in new year.
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Wavetheory
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support area at 64.617.Dear colleagues, it seems that the price is in a downward movement and at the moment the price is forming wave “2” of lower order.
I assume that after the formation of wave “2” (72.299), the price will start to form wave “3” of lower order.
The nearest target is the support area at 64.617.
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(Update) !!! Daily Chart Analysis (READ)POPCAT is in an ascending triangle which means the price is about to do a good bullish movement. The price can increase as much as the measured price movement ( AB=CD ) .
Previous Analysis
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Long to the 100%-161.8% Fibo lvl 1.13296Colleagues, I reviewed the waves a bit and realized that the upward movement is likely to continue. At the moment I believe that the price is in wave “3” lower wave and in wave “5” higher wave.
Therefore, I think that the nearest target is in the area of 1.13296, which is 100%-161.8% of Fibonacci extension levels.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to area 5791 (Wave 3).Dear colleagues, it seems that the price continues the upward movement in the wave “3” of the higher and lower order. This means that two scenarios are possible:
1) I expect a small correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 5550, then continuation of the upward movement.
2) Price will continue the upward movement in wave “1”, possibly immediately to the area of 5791.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | GOLD (4H): Long to 100% Fibo lvl 2673 (Wave 3).Colleagues, I believe that the price has not finished the upward movement in wave “3” of the higher order and wave “3” of the lower wave.
After a small correction of 2603 I expect a continuation of the upward movement to the area of 100% Fibonacci extension (level 2673).
It is quite possible that this movement will not start immediately and will be preceded by a slightly deeper correction.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | GOLD (4H): Long to resistance area 2619.Dear colleagues, I believe that the upward movement in the impulse of the five-wave structure has begun.
At the moment I believe that wave “1” has either completed or is being completed.
In the first case, I expect a corrective movement in wave “2”. Wave “2” is indicated by the 50% Fibonacci level. This is the area of 2533.
But the main direction is still upward. Therefore, the main target is the resistance area 2619.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
UsdJpy moving down on retracement.Looking for Impulse Down.
UsdJpy break out TL and will start to move down soon on retracement. Make sure you have your own rules on RR and follow them. This is just a trading idea to help you gain better knowledge. If you have any question ask me in comments.
Learn & Earn!
Wave Trader Pro
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Long to the resistance area 1.11587.Dear colleagues, in the last forecast I counted on the fact that wave “2” is completed, but now it is clear that it is not.
I think that the price will complete wave “2” in the area of 100% - 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels. This is the range of 1.09788 - 1.08690.
But from here I hope to see the beginning of the upward movement in wave “3”, because I still want to see an update of the highs and the nearest target is the resistance area at 1.11587.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to resistance area 41687. Dear colleagues, I believe that the correction in the wave “2” has already taken place and therefore the impulse wave “3” has started, which according to the rules of wave analysis should reach the resistance area 41687.
This is possible in 2 cases:
1) wave 1 has not been formed yet
2) after wave 2 in wave 3 (then this level will be reached 2 times).
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Bitcoin Cycles: Predicted Highs and Lows for 2025-2026
In this post, we will explore the Bitcoin market cycle in an effort to predict when the next cycle's top and bottom might occur, along with their potential price levels.
Our analysis will cover several key concepts, including the Four-Year Cycle Theory, peak-to-peak and bottom-to-bottom analysis, cycle timing (peak-to-bottom), and the idea of diminishing returns, to support our forecast. Lets go!
The Four-Year Cycle Theory:
The Four-Year Cycle Theory in Bitcoin refers to a recurring market cycle that aligns with the Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years. It suggests that Bitcoin's price moves in predictable cycles, driven largely by the dynamics of supply and demand, with the halving event acting as a significant catalyst.
The theory suggests that each four-year cycle consists of four distinct phases:
a. Accumulation (Bear Market Bottom)
b. Uptrend (Bull Market Start)
c. Parabolic Rise (Bull Market Peak)
d. Correction (Bear Market Crash)
The halving significantly reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is mined, which leads to a supply reduction. As supply decreases while demand stays the same or increases (due to growing adoption, media attention, etc.), the price often rises after the halving leading to phase c. the Parabolic Rise.
With the basics of the Four-Year Cycle Theory covered, we can now analyze the intervals between cycle peaks and bottoms.
Cycle interval analysis:
A cycle analysis aims to identify recurring patterns by analyzing the time and price movements between key events, such as market tops (peaks) and bottoms, in the case of Bitcoin the halving event may also be considered. By examining these cyclical behaviors it is attempted to predict future tops and bottoms.
The simplest and easiest-to-understand patterns are:
1. Top-to-Top
The time difference between consecutive market tops
2. Top-to-Bottom
The time difference between a market top to the next market bottom.
3. Bottom-to-Top
The time difference between a market bottom to the next market top.
4. Bottom-to-Bottom
The time difference between consecutive market bottoms.
There are however also more advanced patterns such as:
5. All-Time-High Break to Top
The time difference between a break of the last cycle top to the next market top.
6. Halving event to top
The time difference between the halving event to the next market top.
It can be observed that market cycle patterns in the 2nd cycle are shorter compared to those in the 3rd and 4th cycles. This is likely due to a lack of market maturation or the fact that it occurs before the first halving.
What stands out is the similarity between the 3rd and 4th cycle patterns. By averaging these cycles, we can predict the 5th cycle. Even more striking is that several of these predictions closely match the subsequent cycle top AND bottom.
The predicted upcoming market cycle top is predicted as follows:
Based on the Top-to-Top pattern, the market top is forecasted for November 3, 2025.
According to the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the top is expected on October 13, 2025.
The Halving Event-to-Top pattern suggests a market peak on October 6, 2025.
Additionally, the ATH-Break-to-Top pattern indicates that the Parabolic Rise of the current cycle will begin on December 9, 2024.
The predicted upcoming market cycle bottom is predicted as follows:
Based on the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 19th 2026.
According to the Top-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 26th 2026.
Here is a graphical overview of our prediction timelines:
Price prediction using diminishing Returns:
In the context of Bitcoin and market cycles, diminishing returns refers to the phenomenon where, as Bitcoin’s market matures and more capital or resources are invested, the incremental gains or price increases from additional investments become smaller over time.
In essence this means the following:
Bull Market Peaks: As a market cycle reaches its peak, diminishing returns become evident. The price increases become smaller and less dramatic each cycle compared to earlier in the cycle.
Bear Market Corrections: Following the peak, the market often enters a correction phase where prices decline significantly. The decline also becomes smaller and less dramatic compared to earlier cycles.
In essence, this results in less dramatic bull cycles but also less severe declines during bear markets:
Here is a table overview with the values:
The effects of diminishing returns are clearly observable, with one exception: the Cycle Top to the next Cycle Bottom in Cycle 3, which saw a 6x loss. However, if we take the effects of diminishing returns into consideration, we can make the following conclusions:
The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Top-to-Top multiplier of 3.4x, meaning it is unlikely to exceed a price of 224K.
The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Top multiplier of 20.5x, meaning it is even more unlikely to exceed a price of 333K.
After considering the effects of diminishing returns, we believe a Top-to-Top multiplier in the range of 2 to 2.6 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle top price of $131,000 to $170,000.
Regarding the next bear market Bottom:
The next Cycle Bottom will likely be below the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Bot multiplier of 5.1x, meaning it will likely be below 83K.
We believe a Bot-to-Bot multiplier in the range of 3 to 4 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle bottom price of $49,000 to $65,000.
Final Conclusion:
Predicted Cycle Top: The upcoming market cycle top is forecasted to occur in October or November 2025. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $131,000 to $170,000.
Predicted Cycle Bottom:
The upcoming market cycle bottom is forecasted to occur in October or November 2026. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $49,000 to $65,000.
These predictions incorporate the effects of diminishing returns and historical cycle patterns.
Hellena | GOLD (4H): Short to support area of 2471.720.In the last forecast I assumed a price decline to the area of 2443, but a difficult correction took place and now we see a flat.
I believe that the decline will still take place, but I will set the target a little closer than before. I will set the target in the support area of 2471.720. This is the boundary of the flat.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to 38.2%-50% Fibo lvl`s 40137.Dear colleagues, after I realized that the price is in the upward impulse of wave “1” I realized that we should look for the beginning of the correction of wave “2”.
At the moment I expect the price to rise a little more to the resistance area of 41379 and then start a corrective movement to the area of 38.2%-50% Fibonacci levels (40137).
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Long to the resistance area 1.12998.Dear Colleagues, In the last forecast I expected a deeper correction, but it didn't happen. Well, so the price is in a strong bullish movement and at the moment I expect the price to complete wave “3” and start a small correction in wave “4” 1.10671, then I expect the resumption of the upward movement and the beginning of wave “5”, which will update the maximum 1.12331 and come to the resistance area 1.12998.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to resistance area 80.432.Dear Colleagues, the price is in a corrective movement and at the moment I believe that wave “b” is coming to an end. The wave completion range is 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension levels (73.591-75.000). Next, I expect price to rise to the nearest high of 80.432. This is the resistance area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
XAUUSD: 2531 high will definitely be refreshedGold market fundamentals:
Powell made a speech on interest rate cut last Friday. The September interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion, and the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut has increased.
The US dollar index and US Treasury yields continue to fall.
The Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical crises are intensifying, and risk aversion continues to rise.
Gold market technical aspects:
From the 4H chart, gold prices still maintain an upward trend. Last week's correction did not effectively fall below the Fibonacci retracement of 0.618. According to the wave theory, from 2380 to 2530, this is the rise of AB waves, and now it is the extension of C waves. According to the amplitude of each wave, the high point of 2531 will definitely be refreshed.
Trading strategy: Now it depends on when 2531 breaks through. If it breaks through directly, we will chase the rise. If there is no break, wait for the retracement to the 2510-2515 range to buy.
Support range: 2515, 2510, 2500
Resistance range: 2531
Daily risk data:
US durable goods orders monthly rate in July
US Dallas Fed business activity index in August
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Short to 50% Fibo lvl 1.08580.Dear Colleagues, the price has completed wave “1” and I believe that the price will leave for the correction of wave “2”.
At the moment I believe that it is possible to update the high of 1.1047 for the bears to gain strength, then I believe that the price will reach the area of 50% Fibonacci level of 1.08580.
It is possible that the price will immediately start a downward movement, but the correction should take place.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to resistance area 41000.Dear Colleagues, because the big wave “4” (38549) has completed, now I believe that the price is in wave “5”. This means that the price probably has not yet completed the upward movement. I expect a small correction, then a continuation of the upward movement at least to the 40900-41000 area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
NVDA Demand ZoneThis is how I like to combine my demand zones with TrendCloud.
Notice how TrendCloud counts the waves in this downtrend.
As price falls we also see Bullish Divergence on the TrendCloud Momentum Filter.
When you combine these together you get a higher probability of success.
Add this to your trade plan and let me know how it works out.
Enjoy!
Hellena | GOLD (4H): Long to 2494 area (Wave "3").Dear colleagues, I believe that the price is still in an upward movement and at the moment I see a corrective movement “abc” which is wave “2”.
After reaching the area of 2420 I expect the beginning of the upward movement at least to the area of 2494, which is an update of the maximum of 2483.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to 50% Fibo lvl 76.54 (Wave "a").Dear colleagues, after the last target achievement the price is actively growing and I believe that this growth is not over yet, but I expect a correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 76.54. This movement is a corrective wave "b". After it I will consider the continuation of the upward movement, but at the moment the price needs wave "b".
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 5566.Dear Colleagues, because the big wave “4” (5095) has completed, now I believe that the price is in wave “5”. This means that the price probably has not yet completed the upward movement. I expect a small correction, then a continuation of the upward movement at least to the 5566 area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | GOLD (4H): Long to 2484 area (Wave "3").Dear Colleagues, in the last forecast I expected wave "C" to be lower, but now it is obvious that this wave is already completed at the level of 2355 and the price has started an impulsive upward movement.
I expect the price to reach at least the 2484 area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!