Wavetheory
State of The Coin 1: Updated Chart Same analysis however, I realized that the tools on my previous chart became misplaced.
State of Coin 1: Minor Crash or Major Dip?Since Dec 2017, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general have been hit hard with bad news time and time again,
fuelling a historical selloff from the previous high of $20k.
Firstly, I would like to address some major issues:
1. Korea FUD and Bitcoin Exchange Bans in Asia
Time and time again we have heard rumblings and rumours of Bitcoin bans in China, Korea and even some rumours that Japan is seeking to work in conjunction with the aforementioned nations to draft a regulatory bill in regards to cryptocurrency. This time around, South Korean officials leaked news of a planned ban on exchanges. Despite the lack of evidence to support the claims, global Bitcoin markets entered a frenzy as Korean volume spiked and overall fear once again consumed the market.
The Silver Lining of this story is that once Bitcoin halved in price following the news, Korean regulators released an official statement claiming that it is "nearly impossible" to ban cryptocurrency exchanges and that the rumour was propagated by certain key individuals in an effort to manipulate the markets. As a result the ministers in question are now under investigation for insider trading.
Lesson 1: Bitcoin has been "banned" dozens of times in Asian countries. This is generally FUD used for manipulation of sentiment.
Lesson 2: Cryptocurrency exchanges are nearly impossible to ban. This is not just true for South Korea but MOST modern 1st world nations. As long as the exchange is not partaking in illegal activity and is operating legitimately under KYC & AML, they are safe. While this is difficult to prove, I think most of the community has an idea of which exchanges are not taking part in the proper procedures.
2. Collapse of Bitconnect ($BCC)
With the collapse of the largest Ponzi Scheme in crypto it's hard not to imagine fear running rampant in the hearts of new comers. I mean after all BIT-coin, BIT-connect ... certainly some similarities there right? $BTC's second and largest leg down was correlated with Bitconnect officially announcing the termination of their lending platform. With the collapse of the first large "lending platform ponzi" in crypto, we are seeing tighter government scrutiny on other similar projects such as Davor Coin ($DAV). Although I don't believe that the collapse of $BCC negatively impacts $BTC in any other way than a sell off, it has left a bad taste in the mouth of millions and has potentially scared away millions more.
Lesson : Don't be f***ing stupid.
- No one can offer fixed return of 1% a day
- Just do the math... you would be a trillionaire within a year at those rates
3. Tether/Bitfinex Issue
I think by now most people know about the suspected Tether issue so I won't bore you with the details. When news came of the CFTC's subpoena to Tether, yet again the market reacted by dumping and maintaining the extreme bearish sentiment. Although this is a serious concern, I believe it has been mostly priced in at this point. What is more concerning to me is that IF the critics of Tether were accurate in their accusation of market manipulation, a large portion of the bullish driving forced behind $BTC may be wiped out.
Technical Analysis
- Contracting wedge shape indicates momentum compression in the downward trend. This is often noted at the end of an Elliott Wave as an indication of pending reversal
- Strong stoch RSI support on the Daily/Weekly timeframes
- MACD divergence
- Bottom of 240 day MA (adjusted for crypto to 243.33). This is a significant level since the last correction to fall this deep was post first bull run out of the major Mt. Gox correction.
Long : $6000-$7000 range
Target 1: $10,000
Target 2: $12,500
Target 3: $18,000
SL: $4800
Closing Ideas:
There is alot of uncertainty at this time, no one truly knows what is going to happen. Scalping shorts may earn you quick profit, however for longer term traders with higher risk tolerance, these levels appear ripe for accumulation.
STRAT Amazing 400% grow!This is for you HODLers! (Also included a shorter term strategy).
I've seen a lot of TA's on STRAT which are off, because they look at "binance" history and miss a major pat of STRAT's history which learns us the long term trend.
Strategy:
1) Take 25%/25% at safe target 1 & 2.
2) Potential strengthen position, rebuy from profit. (add new stop loss)
3) Take 25% profit before reaching the double top (target 1).
4) Take % at Target 2 & 3 (don't get greedy).
BTC thank you adress: 1EQuazVs5MHpcBrceUvKWwtmFBVpNn6hxw
ETH: 0x9746e2692bad3dc2da5c8d759e2d8c56af74e3d9
Ride them waves!
ConocoPhillips still on track to drop by end of FebruaryMy Cycle wave 3 top appears to have been originally off by 7 trading days. This does not appear to impact the pending drop. The estimated upcoming bottom for COP is around 56.20 on March 5, 2018.
Bitcoin Read For $30k +Volume starting to come back, divergence on MACD and similar structure to $3k drop:
Long: $9000-lower
T1:$12k
T2:$15k
T3:$20k
VEN Elliot Wave Count Correction PhaseBullish run end seems to coincide with the completion of two impulsive Elliot Wave fractals, entering the ABC correction phase of both.
Feedback appreciated.
GBP/USD vulnerable - Ending Diagonal vs cause-effect GBP/USD has possibly finalized the Ending Diagonal and could start a deeper Bearish Sequence.
if Breach of the Pivot, I will be very Bearish moving forward.
Intel Set To Lead Intermediate Bears DownAlthough, harder to identify at first, Intel Corporation is in the process of Grand Supercycle Wave 3. The stock has most likely met a near-term top or will do so no later than tomorrow, January 23. Our short-term target is 40.50 by the end of February. Our Intermediate target is 30.00 by June of 2019. Once the stock reverses up from this 30 mark, the stock should fly high for a while. Finally, the long-term target is 78.00 well out in to the future (2022-2024). As always, the rest of the stats will be up shortly on our site.
Further Analysis Shows A Drop Is Coming For CBIWe have "zoomed" in further and are highly confident Cycle wave 1 has ended for CBI. The stock has met 3 Fibonacci retracement and extension points while creating Cycle wave 1. The stock is set to drop over the next few weeks. Our target is south of 17, most likely around 15. Once this bottom is met, the stock should head to 25 in the next 6-7 months. Full analysis in my other idea and website.
Chicago Bridge and Iron Set To Gain 66% By OctoberChicago Bridge and Iron makes reading Elliott waves easy. Even though the stock has had a rough time of late, it was a natural movement when wave theory is applied. The stock is set to drop 20% over the next month to month and a half. Once the bottom is found, the stock should gain 66% over the next 6-7 months. More is detailed at limitlesslifeskills.
NZD/CAD Multi-year potentialHey this pair looks like it has been correcting for the past 17 years and it may be breaking out to the downside.
I have a sell stop order in red and I'll be looking to add to this one on the way down.
Long term chart - fxtop.com
What if BTC is going to 9000? What if it will go to 3500?BTC Wave Count is suggesting that there is a possible Extension in play for Minor C (red) within Minute III (red).
9000 Levels represent 100& Fibs Extensions of Minors A & B (red) and 150-161.8% represent a possible Breach of 9000 Levels which would indicate that there is a major sell-off in play which could reach the 3500 bottom.
Is this realistic? Does it make any sense?
I think so! BTC needs a solid pull-back before moving higher than 40-50K.
Even has potential of topping a 100K this year, is that realistic? Why not!?!
9000 Levels to be watched closely for reactions.
History Repeating Itself on GBPUSDHere we see the same pattern revealing itself as we have seen two times before in the past. 1.47000 is a long way away but it is possible price will keep correctively rising until that area. If we do see price come to that area expect to see a huge move down just like we have seen two times in the past.
Ripple to make a flag before going upAfter the recent spike up we will hopefully see a flag before Ripple BITSTAMP:XRPEUR moving higher.
USDJPY - Buy OpportunityLook for one of the following scenarios to play out. We may get a longer correction. in the overall Uptrend or we may start going back to meet the previous top before a selling opportunity presents itself.
AUDUSD - Short OpportunityLooking to sell this pair on the completion of this Corrective Trend Continuation Pattern.
XRP/USD (Ripple) - Potential Buying OpportunityWe are looking for Ripple to produce the following pattern before looking for bullish evidence. Confirmation of Uptrend will be present if we get a correction outside of the pattern.
ETH headed to new highsMy Elliott Wave Analsysis has ETH in minuette wave (v) of minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) of primary wave . Last night I posted targets for minuette wave (iii) , which it hit today. Then we were looking for a 38.2% retracement to the level of subminuette wave iv of (iii) and we got that move as well. From here we should see new highs before another pullback to the area of today's lows in interemdiate wave (4). In other words, expect some intermediate term choppiness for ETH, but new highs along the way until primary wave tops.
EURNZD - Buy to Sell SetupLook for confirmations for a buy once we have a lower timeframe impulse and correction. Once we get a move up start looking for momentum loss to enter long inline with bigger reversal pattern.
