WBA - DAILY CHARTHi, today we are going to talk about Walgreens and its current landscape.
The opioid crisis has been plaguing the U.S at the most for nearly two years now. With scary numbers like the record of 47,600* overdose deaths caused by opioids in 2017 but the number seems to start slowdown since 2018 were the war against opioids gained some traction.
In the justice field, some companies have already faced some sort of rebuke for involvement and even a bit of responsibility for the opioid crisis. For example
*Jun 2019, Insys Therapeutics Inc. had to file for bankruptcy after being convicted for conspiring to bribe doctors to increase opioid sales, ending up in a deal with the federal government of $225 million.
* Aug 2019, Johnson & Johnson was obligated to pay $572 Million, as Oklahoma ruled that the company intentionally played down the dangers and oversold the benefits of opioids.
* Oct 2019, Johnson & Johnson was once more condemned by two counties of Ohio to pay $20.4 million, with the accusation of having helped the opioid crisis to spread.
* Nov 2019, New York Federal Prosecutors opened a criminal investigation over six companies ( Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd, Mallinckrodt, Johnson & Johnson, Amneal Pharmaceuticals Inc. AmerisourceBergen Corp., and McKesson Corp. to see if they intentionally allowed opioid painkillers to flood communities.
Now, the State of Michigan has sued four companies over the deadly painkiller epidemic as drug dealers. The Attorney General Dana Nessel filed a lawsuit against Walgreens, which could lead to unknown sanctions and liabilities for the company in Michigan, and possible further problems since its the first time. The war against opioids it's just poised to grow up as every justice department across the country and every candidate that it's next to run on elections its eager to hang this trophy on the wall.
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*Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC )
WBA
WBA - Testing Gap ResistanceWBA gapped down at the beginning of April due to an earnings report. The price continued to fall until the end of May, failed when it hit gap resistance in mid-July, & fell again creating a double-bottom at the end of August. Price has continued to fail when attempting to fill the gap but recent price drops have created an ascending triangle pattern. I'm looking for the gap to be filled at some point in the near future.
WBA: Strong bullish technical set-upThis stock (WBA) offers a very nice entry opportunity. It has been falling over the last days, mainly due to earnings report. Despite earnings beating the consensus , the stock dropped 12 percent in the pre-market.
Nevertheless this company is still doing well and there is a potential for a long -term trade or maybe even for an investment. WBA is currently falling to the red area, which is a strong S/R area. So i guess there might be a very big bullish volume at these levels. There is also upward trendline and this stock has some potential to perform very nicely afterwards.
BUY ZONE:
Red S/R area -> 51.70 - 45.00 USD
This is just my point of view, and it doesnt represent an investing advice. You trade on your own risk.
WBA potential trade setuplong term trend is trending down finding support at 80.21
looking to play for a mini breakout short term
ascending triangle on intermediate time frame
increasing positive volume pressure/ increasing relative strength
measured move up to around 82.32 resistance area
risk reward ratio= 3.25 stop at 81.15
remaining cautious as longer trend is to the down side
Near-Term Drop For WalgreensWalgreens Boots Alliance stock has been in a defined bullish trend since the beginning of 2016. Its current position displays the stock is ready to cycle down. The typical movement occurs over a period of 15 or more trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 62.2076. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock has is moving down as this indicator recently turned downward when it was near overbought territory. The last two time the stock was at its current RSI level, the stock dropped greater than 7% over the following 32 trading days.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 11.6581. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending upward. This indicator is more indicative of long term trend and it is slow to reverse course.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1647 and the negative is at 0.7472. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock was moving up, but this is beginning to weaken and trend downward.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 53.7979 and D value is 63.7308. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock exited overbought territory and should continue to decline.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 3.5% over the next 28 trading days.
WBA EARNINGS PLAYSWBA announces earnings tomorrow before market open, so look to put on a play before today's NY close.
Here are the metrics for defined/undefined risk setups:
WBA July 15th 76.5/90 short strangle
POP%: 76%
Max Profit: $106/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/$1031/contract
WBA July 15th 74/78/89/93 iron condor
POP%: 67%
Max Profit: $104/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $296/contract
Notes: Shoot to take these off at 50% max profit and move on. For the short strangle, the buying power effect metric is quite "ugly." For the iron condor, I had to bring the wings in to squeeze $100+ out of the setup, which lowers the probability of profit (POP) of the setup heftily. There are always trade offs between max profit potential, buying power effect (defined vs. undefined), and probability of profit ... . To gain with one metric, you inevitably give up ground on another ... .
WEEK OF 1/4 -- EARNINGS TO PLAY VIA OPTIONS: MON, BBBY, WBAAlthough I traditionally see earnings season as beginning with the first play in the alphabet (AA), there are some that occur before AA that I've frequently played. Next week, it's MON, BBBY, and WBA. MON announces earnings on 1/6 before market open (look to put on that play before Tuesday NY close); WBA, 1/7 before market open (put on Wednesday before market close); BBBY after market close on 1/7 (Thursday).
MON's implied volatility rank is currently 63, has an implied volatility of 31, and a short strangle appears to offer nearly 1.00 in credit ($100 per contract) for a 93/104 short strangle, Jan 15th expiry (currently .97 at the mid price).
BBBY (rank 49/implied 45) needs to have its implied pop a bit to make it 1.00+ attractive; I generally only like to play these when the implied volatility rank is high (70+) and it's implied is kind of right in the middle of its 52-week range right now.
WBA (rank 83/implied 41): the 78.5/91.5 Jan 15th short strangle is currently going for 1.05 at the mid price.
I looked at other earnings announcement plays for next week (CUDA, FINL, KBH, HELE, for example), but none of them look particularly attractive for an options strategy because liquidity is poor on the options end of things and/or the underlying doesn't offer weeklies.