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Perfect Example On How To Utilize Strong FX pair With Weak One !There are many trading strategies out there in the world but it all does not suit us perfectly!. Therefore we end up looking for a new or revised strategy and customize it to our needs. Here i am going to explain one of the best strategy to approach the market when one FX currency has been showing bullishness both fundamentally and technically as well as sentimentally. Currently as i write, we would all wonder everyday what could be the possible strongest FX Currency showing more bullishness at the moment so we can take advantage? Well to answer this question can be hard as the trader needs to keep up and read the fundamental aspects of each FX currencies and decide what FX currency is doing the best. A few weeks ago it was the USD and now in my opinion its the GBP! If you do your reading and technical analysis well you will observe that GBP has some pretty bright future and to add to that the pair (GBPUSD) has been rising for 4 weeks in a row!. Furthermore fundamentally its a currency that is brexit driven and recent news suggests that a deal may be about wrap up by somewhere in October 2018. The GBP has been hit hard by brexit for a long time now, but the currency is largely undervalued by looking at the monthly charts of GBPUSD. Many GBP pairs are showing a lot of signs of bulishness at the moment and are poised for likely gains in the near term. So once you have established the strongest and the currency with a brighter future at the moment we can proceed to the next step. Now ask yourself logically, since i have found the strongest currency pair at the moment what currency should i pair the GBP with? Its a very important question! and as traders we would always like our trade run smoothly with least disturbance as possible and therefore pairing the GBP with the weakest currency seems to be the only logical and technical option here. So coming back to step one, what is the weakest currency pair at the moment? if you read your news and do technical analysis well it might not take you too long to figure it out. For me its the NZD! Why you ask me its the NZD? Well my answer is based on my personal analysis such as looking at the NZDUSD chart its been dropping like rocket for a long time and the fundamentals are the least favorable for this pair. Not only the trade war has hit NZD hard but also their reserve bank failing to give hints on the NZD rate hike. You may look for other currency such as the CAD, but its price is closely linked to OIL market and the volatility can make the CAD go crazy even on short terms. The USD seems to be another currency to think about, recently its showing some weakness but i see it as only temporary. The EUR is strong too at the moment and supported well fundamentally. The safehavens JPY and CHF as said are safehavens and in the event of any market turmoil they become quite volatile and change directions pretty quickly! The AUD is also quite weak at the moment but fundamentals are starting to support this pair. So the last and final crucial step would be to shortlist the most weakest fx currencies and do technical analysis to look for LONG opportunites on higher timeframes! GBPAUD does not indicate any good long term technical opportunity to enter however the GBPNZD has provided some nice set up. Look at the main chart it can be observed that the price was confined in a range for weeks and has now broken out!. I am simply waiting for the price to retrace to 38.2 fib ratio of previous swing before i decide to go LONG on this pair!. The redline represents the target which also happens to be the strong resistance on the monthly charts. The price might likely head to that level which would give us a good risk to reward ratio possibly 1:3. I hope this analysis would be helpful to all as for now and in the future too. Its a really well rounded good strategy pairing the strongest and the weaker pairs together to have a best possible scenario and reward. thank you and follow me if you like my analysis. If there are any signals pertaining to this pair i will post them.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Euro Approaches Crucial SupportI'm calling short on this one. US economy is strong, the Dollar will likely continue to rise in value. Various geopolitical reasons are weakening Europe. We've had a decent rally over the past few days, which I think will be short lived. Rejected hard off the upper Bollinger band, and hit a green 9 on the sequential indicator. The bulls must retain support above 1.153 as this is evidently a crucial level. If this is taken out, all we have is 1.30 as support which will likely fail. *** This is not financial advice, purely educational ***
Short
by kickflip360
NZD/USD - Expecting a Sell-Off ! Towards the end of last week, we saw some weakness on the US dollar across many of its pairs. This has given us some signs the dollar strength and bull run may be running out of steam but I would not short the US Dollar just yet. This weakness saw this pair gain 50 PIPs on Friday which gave a strong finish for the week. So far today there has not been a lot of movement. The US dollar has again gained some strength on various pairs and I believe there is more room to the upside for the Dollar highs to be tested once again. If so, this leaves a potential pullback on this pair. Immediate support is at 0.6600, which was holding as resistance until we saw a break out on Friday. This pair could come lower before a leg higher if any as we will need to watch price action around those levels to confirm. If we achieve this move higher we have a confluence for a target at 0.6700 as this is a former monthly support which is yet to be retested as resistance and in line with my Fibonacci -61.8% extension. This pair still has the possibility of moving lower and creating new lows below 0.6545 as the New Zealand Dollar is still very weak and open to another sell-off.
Short
by QW-Trading
Bitcoin Still WeakBeen a while since I did some TA for Bitcoin! My outlook remains bearish as it has done for the past 4 months. It seems clear that we are ready to breakdown from a Descending Triangle which I'm sure everyone sees. There's possibly a trade soon as the RSI looks almost oversold and I expect a small rally up soon. But Bitcoin -2.35% 0.30% looks pretty weak right now I can imagine it struggling to surpass even the 50 Day MA before heading back down. I'm still looking for 5k to be tested, and from there we can see if it's strong enough to hold. Otherwise 4k and then 3k are my next support zones to be looking for. Check out the prediction I made a few months back, It's been pretty accurate so far:
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by kickflip360
Time to Re-evaluate BTC!Welcome traders! As you can see, Bitcoin has gone from Bullish to Bearish almost over night, and just like that the market sentiment switches! It's a testament to how quickly these markets can change in these volatile times. Just how low can we go? I have switched to linear charts as this gives us a more accurate channel to draw. It is different from my previous TA which was based on Logarithmic charting, but this is why I previously stated that we would have to completely re asses the markets in the event of a bullish to bearish switch. We have capitulated dramatically from the top of the channel, all the way down to the famous .618 Retracement line. We are currently below the 200 day MA, so things are looking bleak to say the least. If we can't stay above the .618 line, then I can't imagine that the 0.786 will hold us for long as we will be pretty close the 6k lows from the beginning of February. It's not impossible that we can stay above this low and bounce back, but catching a falling knife is dangerous and I would really want to see some strong buy volume come in to give us any indication of a reversal. If we break 6k, we could go as low as the bottom of the channel, which would be around 3k. I know that sounds drastic, and I hope that this doesn't happen, but panic selling could really set in so it's definitely not out of the realms of possibilities. Hopefully we would find support at 5k with a strong bounce, but as it's so close to 6k I find it hard to believe this level will hold. Lets hope some strong buying can come in soon, or we can find support above 6k!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by kickflip360
ETHUSD: Broken Support But Great Place For A Reversal.ETHUSD Update: Major support at 246 area is broken. A sign of continued short term weakness ahead. I am still bullish long term. During these type of corrections within a larger bullish trend, it can be very easy to get sucked into buying too early, especially when very opinionated. One less bearish observation that I can make about the current price action is even though 246 has been broken, price has not gone dramatically lower and may be in the process of forming a broader double bottom. If this formation presents itself, this general area of 238 to 246 may offer an early buying opportunity. If price breaks below 238, the next major support area is 229, which again will have to show a broader bottoming process before I even think of getting long. There are quite a few key resistance areas that need to be compromised before I can consider short term momentum to be bullish again. The major ones that will change my outlook back to bullish are 262 and 269. Unless those are taken out, price is likely to persist lower, or to consolidate. I am still not comfortable shorting because the major trend is not bearish yet. The conservative plan is to wait for the pivot resistances to break before considering a long and until then stay flat. A more aggressive variation is to wait for a bottoming formation like a double bottom or higher low somewhere between 245 and 230, put on 25% of my regular position size and if the reversal follows through and price starts breaking the pivot resistances, I can then evaluate my targets, add to the position and adjust my risk. My aggressive entry will all depend on the quality of the formation. Otherwise I will simply wait it out for real buying to come back. At the moment the only reference point I have to measure risk is the 239 low. If I happen to get long with a small position, the risk is reduced if I am stopped out below 239. I'm not using 245 as my risk point because it was broken (red arrow) and momentum is bearish. I am not going to consider it a reliable support for the type of trade I am contemplating. This update is to share my thoughts based on the price action at the moment. Since it is a holiday here in the US, I probably won't post any detailed updates until after the holiday. If I happen to enter on my aggressive scenario, I will attempt to update this post.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
Copper: CUUUSD Another weak Dollar play for next 3/4 days' tradeCopper: CUUUSD Another weak dollar play. Ideal is to buy any dip in Tokyo and rely on dollar weakening ahead of Thursday. Then sell it off the parallels above and go flat (which one depends on your own appetite for risk/reward) and wait to see if the upper parallel can be broken (unlikely on first attempt but you never really know) and if/when it is broken go long again as per comment. Maybe it will happen and maybe it won't. But ask yourself this: would YOU really be wanting to hold USD between now and Thursday if you had the choice? Here's the thing: you do have the choice. You can hedge or you can do nothing.
CLong
by sumastardon
EURUSD Riding the Trump BounceOANDA:EURUSD bounced off the lower channel with the help of Trump showing a nice reversal to the upside. Daily Timeframe View: The channel is still intact so the upper channel trendline is the next logical target from here. OANDA:EURUSD is also currently above the daily 50MA and the 4H 200MA so it might consolidate and even provide support before the next run up. Entry: 1.06619 Stop: 1.0645 Profit: (tg1) 1.0840 (tg2) 1.092 Any feedbacks are appreciated!
Long
by SimpleMillennialAverage