Why I might buy some Qualcomm shares early next week.
Guys, one of the companies that does well from a weakening USD is Qualcomm (ticker - QCOM). Qualcomm is a company that will do well with a weakening USD because a lot of its operations are offshore USA.
From statista.com:
"Qualcomm revenue worldwide 2018-2023, by region
Published by
Thomas Alsop
, Jan 5, 2024
Qualcomm's revenue was a total of approximately 35.8 billion U.S. dollars in the fiscal year of 2023. Qualcomm generated over 22 billion U.S. dollars in China and Hong Kong alone. Vietnam surpassed Ireland, the United States, and South Korea, occupying the position of second region with the highest revenue, with around 4.5 billion U.S. dollars generated."
What does Qualcomm exactly do?
From qualcomm.com
"Every day, Qualcomm is transforming the way we work, live and communicate, pushing the limits of technologies like artificial intelligence to help us stay more intelligently connected. This digital transformation is advancing nearly every facet of society and business – from automotive, agriculture and education to healthcare and manufacturing."
Look, I don't know for sure what direction the USD will take this next week. Please see my other thread today on why I think the USDX is about to rally. Of course if the USD rally's northward then this would not be good for a Long-investment in Qualcomm. But here is the thing, any rally in the USDX I believe will be short-lived as the USA goes into an interest rate reduction next month which is pretty much 'in-the-bag'.
From Reuters 5 days ago:
The U.S. central bank will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, November and December taking the range to 4.50%-4.75% by end-2024, according to 54% of those polled, 55 of 101.
Markets, which were earlier betting on a half-percentage-point cut in September, are currently pricing around 70% probability of a quarter percentage point cut next month.
So, l am not trying to justify the trade in my own mind, I thought it might be a good opportunity for you. I probably would not buy a CFD on this one, I would be buying shares and taking it long for probably a few months of course with a Stop-loss. Because longer-term investments can turn pair-shaped very quickly.
Now, onto the most important technicals. QCOM was up a whopping 67% this-year-to-18 June when its share price hit an all-time-high of 230.47. Since 18 June it share price was sold off due to a bearish head-'n'-shoulder's pattern on the 4hr, but I have done the measurements & this sell-off has played out to the downside so in other words I see no further threat from this bearish h'n's. Price normally want to recover after such a sell-off and retrace to retest the highs.
Now checkout the very bullish Cup'n'Handle pattern on the weekly. See chart. The other timeframe from the Daily right down to the 15m look supportive of price which has recently recovered from the sell off and getting support on all the important moving averages across all timeframes.
STOP LOSS : I might take 2 trades longer term as a stock trade, not cfd, because I avoid paying swap-rates.
Aggressive-Stop would be just under a recent swing-low on the 1HR, a price just underneath a Buy-order block for added protection. That Stop-Loss level is 163.10 which represents 6.23% wriggle-room if the Share-price were to fall.
A more conservative Stop-loss level is 152.30 which is right under the weekly-handle & underneath the lowest price there.
Take Profit: A take-profit level would be 360 , this is riding on the back of the bullish Cup n Handle patterns on weekly and 4hr chart and on significant increase in sp next month when the USA reduces it's interest rate.
See chart of Daily below:
* Trading is risky. Please do not rely solely on my financial advice.
Weakusd
AUDUSDAUDUSD has exploded to the upside because of weak US data.
The daily+4H structure is clearly bullish.
The resistances has been broken.
In bullish trend we buy. But we buy in favorable and discount price which can be a retest of former reistance as support with confluence to some Fib retracement
level.
DXY: TIME for USD PULLBACKS?Hey traders, in this week we are monitoring DXY for a selling opportunity around 104 zone, once we will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed.u
we highly recommend to take a look at DXY at the beginning of every trading week if not everyday, that will help you to trade USD pairs more professionally and spot their direction!
Trade safe, Joe.
SPROTT Physical Uranium Trust. A Simple Short-Term Trade.TSX:U.U is showing an ascending triangle on the hourly that spans the past eight trading days. This is a simple trade with the stop loss below the swing low and the target at the height of the triangle. Gives us a 6.83% potential profit to 3.1% potential loss, a reward-risk ratio of 2.22. Of course that depends on whether the triangle breaks upwards in the first place. If it does, we have a confirmation and the trade is on. I anticipate it going up because the Dollar is weakening and commodities are going up. Good luck with the trade.
GBP USD - intradayHi all,
just a very quick update: for GBP USD - this is what we are seeing over the 4 hour chart within the next week and weekly close.
Price has held nicely at 0.618 retracement from the high, now we expect the "0" zone to be removed and extension targets to be met.
See our other ideas below;
Many thanks and enjoy this one.
Team Lupa
USD/RUB - Sell Update In this video update to a previous video I posted on selling USD/RUB, we look the Dollar getting weaken against the Ruble and a perfect time to enter a short sell-set up.
The Ruble has a number of factors supporting it's strength agaisnt the Dollar.
1.) Higher interest rates mean selling the currency pair gives you a positive overnight carry trade opportunity.
2.) Higher Oil prices will support the Russian Ruble as Oil makes up 55.92% of Russia's exports.
3.) A weaker U.S Dollar and negative current account balance should further depreciate the dollar.
The one risk to a downside sell is U.S Sanctions on Russia should the Joe Biden take a tough stance with Russia.
We look at Entry price, stop loss and take profit targets for this trade idea.
When all else fails BUY GOLD. Gold producer CAD looks bullish.Techincal analysis is always my first port of call and as you can see I have highlighted a Invese Head and Shoulder pattern which looks to be forming which essentially is a trend reversal pattern. Fib has also help me uncover support regions in which to trade from for entry and taking profit, this along side support and resistance from top level analysis will also aid me whilst trading this pair. WEAK NFP data for the USD last friday is a great complimentry fundamental analysis to boost the interest of the worlds current reserve GOLD, as Canada is the 5th largest producer of GOLD, CAD tends to be brought.
FOMC Minutes to weaken USD across the board!The USD has had its fair share of weakness this year., the exact opposite of the US Stock Market.
Statistically, Republicans have a weak US and Trump, being a Republican, is of the same belief. Since he was elected I waited for every good opportunity to sell the USD and today is that time again.
The above screen-shot of AUDUSD is but one example of the excellent trades that can be taken.
Here is a bullet point summary
- USD is to be weak this year. I am looking for opportunities to short it.
- FED will weaken USD
- Today's minutes will also weaken USD