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What are Falling and Rising Wedge Patterns?What Is the Wedge Pattern and Its Common Characteristics? 1. Wedge patterns have converging trend lines that come to an apex with a distinguishable upside or downside slant. a. Wedge with an upside slant is called a rising wedge b. Wedge with downside slant is called falling wedge 2. It has declining volumes as the pattern progresses. 3. It breaks out from one of the trend lines. Why We Should Pay Attention to Wedge Patterns? Some studies suggest that a wedge pattern will breakout towards a reversal rather than a continuation more often than two-thirds of the time. Therefore as the rule of thumb, people generally treat a falling wedge as a bullish pattern and a rising wedge as a bearish pattern, especially a falling wedge would be a more reliable reversal indicator than a rising wedge. Since we know a wedge pattern has a higher probability to reverse and due to the fact that the price of wedge pattern converges to a smaller area, we can trade the reversal set up with a relatively close stop loss to its entry price, which provides us with a good trading opportunity with a decent Risk:Reward ratio. Examples of a Bullish Rising Wedge and Bearish Falling Wedge. Sadly, there is nothing that works 100% in trading. Not every rising or falling wedge will reverse as one might expect. Every trader must properly manage their risk by setting stop losses and not just trading based on price patterns. Below are two examples. Bullish Rising Wedge (ETHUSDT during 15/NOV/20 - 28/DEC/20) In the early stages of the epic 20-21 bull market, if traders blindly treat the rising wedge as a bearish signal and trade accordingly, they would pay a heavy price. Bearish Falling Wedge (LTCUSD during 14/AUG/18 - 14/NOV/18) On the contrary, in the late stage of the 2018 bear market, any trader who blindly trades the falling wedge to bet on a reversal would also learn a hard lesson. Comment down your thoughts on Ascending Triangle Pattern in the comment section. Disclaimer: This is just an educational post. Never trade just any pattern. And please do your research before making any trades. Happy Trading!
Education
by Coinlog
7
Broadening Wedges - Advanced AnalysisIn our previous post in this series about chart patterns we described the characteristics, rules, and causes of triangle patterns (if you haven't seen it, see the related idea below). In this post, we perform an advanced analysis of broadening wedges patterns. We provide a description of each pattern and its implications. We also review the literature in order to find their deterministic cause. 1. Broadening Wedges Broadening wedges are characterized by price variations laying within one support and resistance, both having the same direction and broadening over time. As such the apex of the support/resistance in a broadening wedge is located to the left. Broadening wedges must not be confused with other broadening formations. While they all have a broadening characteristic they can have different identification rules Broadening wedges are classified depending on the direction of the support/resistance. 1.1 Ascending Ascending broadening wedges mostly occur during uptrends with rising local maxima (higher highs) forming an upward sloping resistance and raising local minimas (higher lows) forming an upward slopping support. The slope of both the support & the resistance should be significantly different from 0. Bulkowski suggests the price needs to test the support and resistance three times each. Additionally, the resistance should be steeper than the support. Volume tends to increase during the formation of such pattern. Ascending broadening wedges have a bearish bias with breakouts mostly occurring downward. Downward breakouts are often followed by a decrease in price. Example of an ascending broadening wedge followed by a downward breakout on SOLUSDT 4h. 1.2 Descending Descending broadening wedges mostly occur during downtrends with declining local maxima (lower highs) forming a downward sloping resistance and declining local minimas (lower lows) forming a downward slopping support. The slope of both the support & the resistance should be significantly different from 0. Similarly to ascending broadening wedges, Bulkowski suggests the price needs to test the support and resistance three times each. Additionally, the support should be steeper than the resistance. Volume tends to increase during the formation of such pattern. Descending broadening wedges have a bullish bias with breakouts mostly occurring upward. Upward breakouts are often followed by an increase in price. Example of an ascending broadening wedge followed by a downward breakout on AVAX 1h. 2. Partial Rises/Declines Partial rises/declines are phenomena described by Bulkowski in broadening formations and are described as being common. Partial rises/declines often indicate the direction of a breakout. Partial rises commonly occur in broadening ascending wedges, price bounces off the support, moves towards the resistance without reaching it, and go back to the support. We can expect a potential downward breakout after that. Note that a partial rise always starts from the test of the support. Partial declines commonly occur in broadening descending wedges. The price bounces off the resistance, moves towards the support without reaching it, and then goes back to the resistance where we can expect a potential breakout upwards. Note that a partial decline always starts from the test of the resistance. Partial rises and declines can offer a better price to buy/sell instead of waiting for a breakout. 3. Measure Rule The measure rule for broadening wedges allows us to determine the position of a take-profit/stop-loss. For a broadening ascending wedge the measure rule would place our take profit at the lowest low inside the formation. Selling directly after a partial rise would allow for higher profits. For a broadening descending wedge the measure rule would place our take profit at the highest high inside the formation. Selling directly after a partial decline would allow for higher profits. Certain analysts close trades caused by partial rises/declines when the price reaches the support/resistance of the wedge, opening a new position in the case of a breakout while using the metric rule for setting their take profit. 4. Causes Of Broadening Wedges Bulkowski offers a description of the causes of broadening wedges in the market in terms of the market participant's behavior. The cause of an ascending broadening wedge is a surge from an initial buying impulse, driving the price higher. Momentum traders follow the initial impulse further pushing prices up. Contrarian traders judge the price to be trading above its intrinsic value, selling and thus creating a decline in prices. However, before the decline reaches the previously established low, certain market participants buy again. These participants can be composed of initial buyers, accumulating positions, or late traders seeing the potential to buy at a better price. This allows the creation of a new impulse, with only a divergence left. This scenario eventually repeats itself with increased volume, causing impulses and retracements of higher magnitude reinforcing a positive feedback loop until the price is judged overbought even by initial buyers. A broadening falling wedge follows the same scenario structure but with sellers instead of buyers. 5. Other Observations The amplitude of the cyclical variations within a broadening wedge increases over time, thus potentially highlighting volatility clusters in higher time-frames. Another interesting observation that can be made is that prices within a broadening wedge are subject to heteroscedasticity (variability is not constant, it increases inside a broadening wedge), while prices inside a channel are homoscedastic (variability remains constant). This concept is inherent to regression analysis. 6. Conclusion In this post we described broadening wedge patterns in depth. We have highlighted partial rises/declines as well as how the measure rule applies to such patterns. We then focused on showing how market participants act during the formation of broadening wedges. Note that unlike triangles patterns we did not find a significant amount of studies mentioning such patterns, nor any agent models developed to describe their occurrence. 7. References (1) Bulkowski, T. N. (2021). Encyclopedia of chart patterns. John Wiley & Sons.
LEducation
by LuxAlgo
45
+1100% TEL Descending Wedge Breakout Within Next 2 Weeks?History KUCOIN:TELUSDT is 15 days away from pinching between the bottom and top resistance that formed on March 7, 2021, which occurred just two breakouts ago. The most recent breakout took 14 days to complete and resulted in a +1,077% gain. Potential If history repeats itself for a 3rd time in a row, we'd be looking at a +1,105% gain by October 10th, if TEL were to break out today. Supportive Observations Price action is within a descending wedge and has been knocking on the upper trendline, which is bullish. RSI is at 42, which is the level it's been at immediately prior to numerous other breakouts. The blue MACD line is curling up towards the signal line, and the red histogram bars are decreasing in volume, which is bullish. Volume has been descending below the MA. Waiting for a breakthrough and retest of the top trendline for support would be the safest time to secure a position. The Information contained in this idea is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice. You understand that you are using any and all Information available on or through this website at your own risk.
Long
by mattdim805
3
BTC Descending Wedge / Bull Flag - PT $51,200BTC has quite a few clear bullish things going for it. First, the bearish three drives harmonic pattern. The green arrows marked show three attempts by sellers to cause a break downward, and three fails to cause that break. Immediately after the third, the price trends upward with consecutive straight green candles with solid volume, and that's exactly what we see here. If you want more precedent for the above harmonic, look no further than the BTC daily from May of this year to right now. You can see almost the exact same thing happening here. A wick on the initial crash to the range low, then a series of bearish drives which failed to break down significantly below 30k. Immediately after that third bullish drive, the candles immediately gain volume we had never seen in a while, and it was shocking to see BTC's strength. Second, the descending wedge. You can see a very clean and well defined descending wedge right after the consecutive green candles. This itself is a bullish pattern, and when you consider the support line as well as the fib support thwarting any breakdown attempts from sellers, you can see we're about to go much much higher. Make sure to set a nice SL, somewhere around 46.5k, since you might get stopped out by those breakdown attempts. Good luck!
Long
by Slip1244
2