U.S. NATURAL GAS SUCCESSFULLY REBOUNDED FROM FIRM SUPPORT.U.S. NATURAL GAS SUCCESSFULLY REBOUNDED FROM FIRM SUPPORT.
Yesterday the natural gas storage report came out higher than expected. U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 48 billion cubic feet last week to 3,123 Bcf, increasing the surplus over the five-year average to 195 Bcf from 171 Bcf the week before, the EIA reports. The storage increase was bigger than the 24 Bcf average for the week, and above the 36 Bcf estimate. However, the price rised on 2.35% afterwards, supported by increased volume, which indicates the strength of the level. The upward movement towards the 3.3000 level is highly expected.
Additionally, seasonals suggest us that current prices may become the lowest till the end of the year. Historically, since August the natural gas prices increase in anticipation of a new heating season and higher energy demand (pic2).
Wedgepatterns
ETHUSD BROKE THE LOWER BORDER OF THE WEDGE. PRICE IS MOVING TOWAETHUSD BROKE THE LOWER BORDER OF THE WEDGE. PRICE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE LOCAL SUPPORT.
Yesterday, Ethereum saw its largest monthly increase since July 2022, thanks to strong inflows into exchange-traded funds and increased activity in the Ethereum treasury. US exchanges are working to obtain regulatory approval for a standardized framework for listing crypto funds. Coinbase and JPMorgan have joined forces to provide Chase customers with access to crypto products.
Despite these positive developments, the short-term outlook does not indicate a bullish setup. It appears that all the information has already been factored into the price. The pair moves towards the local support of 3,500.00. However, in the long term, these developments are favorable for investment.
Wedge Pattern: A Key to Trend Reversals and Continuations📈 Wedge Pattern: A Key to Trend Reversals and Continuations
A wedge pattern is a technical chart formation that signals a potential reversal or continuation in the market. It’s formed when price moves between two converging trendlines — either sloping upward or downward — creating a narrowing range over time.
There are two main types of wedge patterns:
🔻 Falling Wedge (Bullish)
Formed during a downtrend or as a correction in an uptrend.
Characterized by lower highs and lower lows, with the slope of the support line steeper than the resistance line.
Typically signals a bullish reversal as momentum builds for a breakout to the upside.
✅ Confirmation: Break above the resistance line with volume surge.
🔺 Rising Wedge (Bearish)
Appears during an uptrend or as a correction in a downtrend.
Shows higher highs and higher lows, but the support line is steeper than the resistance line.
Often leads to a bearish reversal, especially when volume declines into the pattern.
⚠️ Confirmation: Break below the support line with increasing volume.
🧠 Key Characteristics
Volume tends to decrease as the pattern forms, indicating a pause in momentum.
The breakout direction (up or down) determines whether it’s a continuation or reversal signal.
Wedges can appear on any time frame and are useful for both day traders and long-term investors.
📊 Trading Tip
Always wait for confirmation of the breakout before entering a trade. False breakouts can be common, especially in low-volume environments
ETHUSD MAY FORM THE BEARISH WEDGE. THE PRICE IS GETTING READY TOETHUSD MAY FORM THE BEARISH WEDGE. THE PRICE IS GETTING READY TO DROP.
ETHUSD has been moving bullish since July 8. However since July 21 the price started to form the bearish wedge with bearish divergence on RSI on 4-h timeframe.
A bearish wedge is a bearish reversal pattern in an uptrend, where the price forms higher highs and higher lows within converging upward trendlines, signaling weakening bullish momentum and a potential downward reversal. To trade, identify the wedge with declining volume and confirm with RSI or divergence. Sell or short on a breakdown below the lower trendline with a volume spike. Set a stop-loss above the recent high or upper trendline. Target the wedge’s height projected downward from the breakdown or the next support level with a 1:2 risk-reward ratio.
We expect that the price will establish another bullish momentum and the price will go towards upper border of the wedge, slightly below the 4,100.00 resistance level and will decline towards 3,500.00 support level afterwards.
Wedge Pattern — A Key to Trend Movements📐 Wedge Pattern — A Key to Trend Movements 📈
🔍 Introduction
The Wedge is a chart pattern that represents a phase of directional consolidation following a trending move. It can act as a continuation 🔄 or a reversal 🔃 signal, depending on the context. The structure consists of two converging trendlines, both sloping in the same direction.
🧩 Pattern Description
Unlike the Flag pattern 🚩, the Wedge has no flagpole and doesn’t depend on the direction of the previous move. The direction of the wedge body determines its type:
A falling wedge ⬇️ is bullish 🟢 (buy signal)
A rising wedge ⬆️ is bearish 🔴 (sell signal)
The breakout is the key point to watch. The two trendlines slope in the same direction but at different angles, causing them to converge. This reflects a loss of momentum ⚠️ and typically indicates that buyers or sellers are preparing to take control.
This pattern can act as:
A continuation signal 🧭 — appearing at the end of a correction
A reversal signal 🔄 — forming at the end of a strong trend
📉 Volume is usually low during the wedge and rises on breakout. A low-volume breakout increases the risk of a false breakout ❗. Often, price retests the breakout level 🔁, giving traders a second chance to enter.
🎯 Entry & Stop-Loss Strategy
📥 Entry: On breakout confirmation
🛑 Stop-loss: Below the pattern’s low (bullish) or above its high (bearish), or under/above the most recent local swing point
🎯 Target: Project the height of the widest part of the wedge from the breakout point. Alternatively, use key price levels 📊 or a trailing stop 🔂 to lock in profits.
💡 My Pro Tips for Trading the Wedge
✅ Pattern Criteria
Two converging trendlines ➡️➕➡️
Clearly defined structure ✏️
Prior trending move before the wedge 🚀
Low volume within the wedge 📉, high volume on breakout 📈
Retest of breakout level = confirmation 🔁
🔥 Factors That Strengthen the Signal
Breakout on strong volume 📊💥
Appears after an extended trend 🧭📉📈
More touches = stronger pattern ✍️
Breakout occurs close to the apex 🎯
⚠️ Factors That Weaken the Signal
Low volume on breakout 😐
Poorly defined trendlines 🫥
Few touches on lines
Early breakout (too far from apex) ⏱️
No prior trend / appears in a range-bound market 📏
✅ Examples of My Successful Wedge Trades
📸
❌Examples of Failed Wedge Overview
💥
💬 Do you use the wedge pattern in your trading?
It’s a powerful pattern, especially when confirmed by volume and market structure. Share your favorite wedge setups or ask questions below 👇👇
Understanding Wedge Patterns - A Real Bitcoin Case Study🎓📊 Understanding Wedge Patterns - A Real Bitcoin Case Study 🧠📈
Hi everyone, FXPROFESSOR here 👨🏫
From this moment forward, I will no longer be posting targets or trade setups here on TradingView. Instead, I’ll be focusing 100% on education only for here in Tradinfview.
Why? Because over time I’ve learned that even when traders receive the right charts, most still struggle to trade them effectively. So, from now on, FX Professor Crypto content here will be strictly educational — designed to teach you how to read and react to the markets like a professional. Unfortunately I cannot be posting on Tradingview frequent updates like I do all day. Education is always better for you guys. And i am very happy to share here with you what matters the most.
🧩 In today’s post, we dive into one of the most misunderstood formations: the wedge pattern.
Most resources show wedges breaking cleanly up or down — but real price action is messier.
🎥 I recorded a video a few days ago showing exactly how BTC respected a wedge formation.
⚠️ Note: Unfortunately, TradingView doesn’t play the audio of that clip — apologies that you can’t hear the live commentary — but the visuals are clear enough to follow the logic. (there is no advertising of any kind on the video so i hope i don't get banned again - i did make a mistake the last time and will avoid it-the community here is awesome and needs to stay clean and within the rules of TV).
Here’s what happened:
🔸 A clean wedge formed over several days
🔸 We anticipated a fake move to the downside, grabbing liquidity
🔸 BTC rebounded off support around a level marked in advance
🔸 Then price re-entered the wedge, flipping support into resistance
The lesson?
📉 Often price will exit the wedge in the wrong direction first — trapping retail traders — before making the real move. This is a classic liquidity trap strategy, exercised by the 'market'.
💡 Remember:
Wedges often compress price until it "runs out of space"
The initial breakout is often a trap
The true move tends to come after liquidity is taken
The timing of the 'exit' has a lot to do with the direction. In the future we will cover more examples so pay attention.
I stayed long throughout this move because the overall market context remained bullish — and patience paid off.
Let this be a reminder: it’s not about guessing the direction — it’s about understanding the mechanics.
More educational breakdowns to come — keep learning, keep growing.
One Love,
The FX PROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Gold Futures Update – 0.5 Fib Stop Hit, Eyes on 0.618 ConfluenceGold Futures Update – 0.5 Fib Stop Hit, Eyes on 0.618 Confluence
Our initial long setup at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level has been stopped out, but the structure remains constructive.
Price is now approaching a key confluence zone at $3,336 , where:
The 0.618 fib retracement from the recent swing low to high aligns perfectly,
The ascending trendline support (respected multiple times since May) intersects, and
The oint of Control (POC) from the visible volume profile shows dominant volume transacted.
This area represents a high-probability support level where bulls may attempt to defend again. We’re monitoring for reaction and potential entry signals around this level. A break below would invalidate the rising wedge structure and shift bias toward lower fib extensions.
Trading Divergences With Wedges in ForexTrading Divergences With Wedges in Forex
Divergence trading in forex is a powerful technique for analysing market movements, as is observing rising and falling wedges. This article explores the synergy between divergence trading and wedges in forex, offering insights into how traders can leverage these signals. From the basics to advanced strategies, learn how you could utilise this approach effectively, potentially enhancing your trading skills in the dynamic forex market.
Understanding Divergences
In forex trading, the concept of divergence plays a pivotal role in identifying potential market shifts. A divergence in forex, meaning a situation where price action and a technical indicator like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) move in opposite directions, often signals a weakening trend. This discrepancy is a valuable tool in divergence chart trading, as it may indicate a possible reversal or continuation of the current trend.
There are two primary types of divergence in forex—regular and hidden. Regular divergence occurs when the price makes higher highs or lower lows while the indicator does the opposite, often signalling a reversal. Hidden divergence, on the other hand, happens when the price makes lower highs or higher lows while the indicator shows higher highs or lower lows, typically suggesting a continuation of the current trend.
Trading Rising and Falling Wedges
Rising and falling wedges are significant patterns in forex trading, often signalling potential trend reversals. A rising wedge, formed by converging upward trendlines, often indicates a bearish reversal if it appears in an uptrend. Conversely, a falling wedge, characterised by converging downward trendlines, typically reflects a bullish reversal if it occurs in a downtrend.
Traders often look for a breakout from these patterns as a signal to enter trades. For rising wedges, a downward breakout can be seen as a sell signal, while an upward breakout from a falling wedge is often interpreted as a buy signal. When combined with divergences, this chart pattern can add confirmation and precede strong movements.
Best Practices for Trading Divergences
Trading divergence patterns in forex requires a keen eye for detail and a disciplined, holistic approach. Here are key practices for effective trading:
- Comprehensive Analysis: Before trading on divergence and wedges, be sure to analyse overall market conditions.
- Selecting the Right Indicator: Choose a forex divergence indicator that suits your trading style. Common choices include RSI, MACD, and Stochastic.
- Confirmation Is Key: It’s best to watch for additional confirmation from price action or other technical tools before entering a trade.
- Risk Management: Traders always set stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively. Divergence trading isn't foolproof; protecting your capital is crucial.
- Patience in Entry and Exit: Be patient as the divergence develops and confirm with your chosen indicators before entering or exiting a trade.
Strategy 1: RSI and Wedge Divergence
Traders focus on regular divergence patterns when the RSI is above 70 (overbought) or below 30 (oversold), combined with a rising or falling wedge pattern. The strategy hinges on identifying highs or lows within these RSI extremes. It's not crucial if the RSI remains consistently overbought or oversold, or if it fluctuates in and out of these zones.
Entry
- Traders may observe a regular divergence where both the price highs/lows and RSI readings are above 70 or below 30.
- After the formation of a lower high (in an overbought zone) or a higher low (in an oversold zone) in the RSI, traders typically watch as the RSI crosses back below 70 or above 30. This is accompanied by a breakout from a rising or falling wedge, acting as a potential signal to enter.
Stop Loss
- Stop losses might be set just beyond the high or low of the wedge.
Take Profit
- Profit targets may be established at suitable support/resistance levels.
- Another potential approach is to exit when the RSI crosses back into the opposite overbought/oversold territory.
Strategy 2: MACD and Wedge Divergence
Regarded as one of the best divergence trading strategies, MACD divergence focuses on the discrepancy between price action and the MACD histogram. The strategy is particularly potent when combined with a rising or falling wedge pattern in price.
Entry
- Traders typically observe for the MACD histogram to diverge from the price. This divergence manifests as the price reaching new highs or lows while the MACD histogram fails to do the same.
- The strategy involves waiting for the MACD signal line to cross over the MACD line in the direction of the anticipated reversal. This crossover should coincide with a breakout from the rising or falling wedge.
- After these conditions are met, traders may consider entering a trade in anticipation of a trend reversal.
Stop Loss
- Stop losses may be set beyond the high or low of the wedge, which may help traders manage risk by identifying a clear exit point if the anticipated reversal does not materialise.
Take Profit
- Profit targets might be established at nearby support or resistance levels, allowing traders to capitalise on the expected move while managing potential downside.
Strategy 3: Stochastic and Wedge Divergence
Stochastic divergence is a key technique for divergence day trading in forex, especially useful for identifying potential trend reversals. This strategy typically employs the Stochastic Oscillator with settings of 14, 3, 3.
Entry
- Traders may look for divergence scenarios where the Stochastic readings are above 80 or below 20, mirroring the RSI approach.
- This divergence is observed in conjunction with price action, forming a rising or falling wedge.
- Entry may be considered following a breakout from the wedge, which signals a potential shift in market direction.
Stop Loss
- Setting stop losses just beyond the high or low of the wedge might be an effective approach.
Take Profit
- Profit targets may be set at key support/resistance levels.
The Bottom Line
Divergence trading, coupled with the analysis of rising and falling wedges, offers a comprehensive approach to navigating the forex market. By integrating the discussed strategies with sound risk management and market analysis, traders may potentially enhance their ability to make informed decisions in the dynamic world of forex.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
ETHUSD FORMED A BEARISH WEDGE. READY TO REVERSE?ETHUSD FORMED A BEARISH WEDGE. READY TO REVERSE?📉
ETHUSD has been moving bullish since July 9, forming the bearish wedge, supported by the bearish divergence. Today the price started to breakdown this pattern.
A bearish wedge is a bearish reversal pattern in an uptrend, where the price forms higher highs and higher lows within converging upward trendlines, signaling weakening bullish momentum and a potential downward reversal. To trade, identify the wedge with declining volume and confirm with RSI or divergence. Sell or short on a breakdown below the lower trendline with a volume spike. Set a stop-loss above the recent high or upper trendline. Target the wedge’s height projected downward from the breakdown or the next support level with a 1:2 risk-reward ratio.
The decline towards local support of 3,500.00 is highly expected. If the bearish impulse gets strong enough, we may see the decline towards 3,000.00 support level.
U.S. NATURAL GAS - BEARISH WEDGE WORKED OUT. WHAT'S NEXT?U.S. NATURAL GAS - BEARISH WEDGE WORKED OUT. WHAT'S NEXT?
Today, the market opened 2.66% below its closing price on Friday. The current price has already fallen on 4.8% since the closing on Friday, and it is now above the 3.400 support level. I expect further decline, however, with a possible rebound from the current level and pullback towards the SMA50, with a final target of 3.000.
OMSE falling wedge after IPONeutral on OMSE, another relatively new ticker. Similar to my previous post on DVLT, this ticker is fundamentally strong but stuck in a falling wedge after IPO. Price is struggling to break the daily 20EMA (overlayed on this 4H chart) and has rejected multiple times. The company has strong financials, take the time to do some DD, however this pattern could break to the downside and hit new lows before we see any type of rally given the weakness in this sector at the moment. Set alerts and watch the price action play out, or don't bet your rent money on any direction if entering a position.
I'm just a cat not a financial advisor.
ETHUSD SHAPING THE BEARISH WEDGE, READY TO DECLINE
Ethereum has been forming the bearish wedge since the June 23th. The asset goes precisely according to Elliot 5-waves formation and is currently starting the wave E, rebounding from the lower border of the chart pattern.
What a trader may do?
We may go aggressive and trade long right immedia CAPITALCOM:ETHUSD tely with a take profit slightly below the 2,700.00 resistance level
🔼 a market buy order at 2544.19 with
❌a stop loss at 2489.90 and
🤑a take profit at 2691.35,
risk-reward ratio is 1:2.71 (nice one!)
However, I prefer to stay conservative and wait till the price tests the 2,700.00 level and enter the position there with
🔽 a pending sell stop order at 2691.35 with
❌a stop loss at 2759.92 and
🤑a take profit at 2409.89
risk-reward ratio here will be 1:4.1 (even better!)
In mid-term, I still expect ETHUSD to trade within a 2,400.00-2,700.00 range. So after assets reaches the 2,400.00, could be reasonable to look for new long opportunities! But will see.
Bitcoin is bullish now & many Traders don't see it !!!I currently expect the price to correct slightly, as indicated on the chart, and then pump by about 6% from the PRZ . This signal is reinforced by strong positive divergence and a wedge pattern. In summary, the PRZ is a solid entry point, derived from the confluence of touchlines and pivots. However, if the price ignores this zone and falls below it, my analysis will be invalidated.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
Oil Price: Breakout or Fakeout? Watch This Zone Closely Technical Overview:
The current price action is testing the upper boundary of a descending wedge, a bullish reversal pattern. The recent strong green candle indicates a potential breakout attempt, yet price is hovering near a critical resistance level at $74.20 (Fib 0.5).
Key levels from the Fibonacci retracement are:
🔼 Resistance at $74.20 (0.5), then $78.16 (0.618)
🧲 Local support at $69.78 (0.382)
🛡️ Strong demand zone near $63.81 (0.236) if rejection occurs
Structure + Patterns:
Price has been compressing inside a falling wedge, which statistically resolves to the upside.
The breakout candle broke above the 20 EMA and touched the upper wedge resistance — signaling a decision point.
Volume is rising on bullish candles — initial confirmation of buyer interest, but not yet decisive.
Scenarios to Watch
Bullish Case:
Break and close above $74.20 on higher volume → likely move toward $78–$86 resistance zone.
Confirmation of wedge breakout could trigger trend reversal, aligning with bullish fib levels.
Momentum could accelerate if macro factors support demand (see geopolitics below).
Bearish Case:
Failure to close above $74.20 = fakeout risk → price may reject down to $69.78 or even retest $63.81.
Bearish rejection wick on the daily/4H would be an early signal.
Macro & Geopolitical Factors to Monitor:
Middle East Tensions: Any escalation (especially around Iran or shipping lanes) could spike oil due to supply fears.
US Strategic Reserves & Elections: Moves to refill reserves or control inflation could support demand.
China Demand Recovery: Data showing improved industrial output or stimulus from PBoC may strengthen global oil outlook.
Final Thoughts:
Price is at a pivot zone — breaking this wedge with strength could shift the short-to-midterm trend. Until then, this remains a "show me" breakout . Watch how the next 1–2 weekly candles close around the $74–$75 area to confirm direction.
GBP/USD Downtrend Wedge Breakout Setup – Bullish Target AheadThe GBP/USD pair is currently displaying a downtrend wedge pattern, a structure that typically signals a bullish reversal when confirmed. The pattern is formed by a descending resistance trendline (in red) and a gradually sloping support line (in green), converging to a point. Price has bounced off the wedge’s support multiple times while forming lower highs, creating pressure that often leads to a breakout.
As seen in the chart, the pair recently surged toward the upper resistance line and is now attempting to break above it. A successful breakout with bullish candle confirmation could lead to a strong move upward.
📈 Breakout Scenario
If the price manages to close above the resistance zone (~1.3490–1.3500), it would confirm the wedge breakout. Based on the height of the pattern, the projected breakout target is around 1.3692. This target is calculated by measuring the vertical height of the wedge and adding it to the breakout point. Confirmation of breakout should ideally include a retest of the broken resistance acting as new support.
📉 Rejection Scenario
However, if the breakout attempt fails and the price gets rejected again from the red resistance line, the pair could retest the wedge’s support area around 1.3360. A breakdown below the green zone would invalidate the bullish outlook and suggest continued bearish pressure.
⚙️ Strategy Tips
Buy Setup: Enter after breakout candle closes above 1.3500 with stop loss just below breakout zone.
Take Profit: Use the 1.3692 level as the primary target or scale out on the way up.
Confirmation: Always wait for breakout confirmation before entering; avoid false breakouts.
✅ Conclusion
This wedge breakout setup offers a bullish trading opportunity if confirmed. The clear structure, repeated tests of both support and resistance, and recent momentum build a strong technical case. Still, confirmation is key before initiating any positions.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Wedge Pattern – Simple Explanation
📚 Wedge Pattern – Simple Explanation
A wedge pattern is a shape on the chart that looks like a triangle or cone. It tells us that the price is getting ready to break out — either up or down.
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🔻 Falling Wedge (Bullish)
Looks like price is going down, but slowly.
Lines move closer together.
Usually means the price will go up soon.
It's a bullish signal (good for buying).
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🔺 Rising Wedge (Bearish)
Price goes up, but losing strength.
Lines get closer together.
Usually means the price will go down soon.
It's a bearish signal (good for selling).
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💡 Easy Tips:
Wait for breakout (big move out of the wedge).
Use a stop-loss below/above the pattern.
Target = height of the wedge.
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📌 In Short:
Wedge = Squeeze pattern.
Falling wedge = Buy chance.
Rising wedge = Sell chance.
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Let me know if you have sny doubt in comments
GBPUSD SHORT IDEAGBPUSD has been rally up for a while. Currently, there's a divergence signal from the awesome oscillator on the daily timeframe. Switching to 4 hours timeframe, there's a clearer view of what's going on. Based on the 4 hours chart, rising wedge has been formed and there's also a bearish divergence signal from the awesome oscillator. In addition to these, price has mitigated a daily supply zone after taking out a significant high as a liquidity. Then, a bearish engulfing candlestick was formed, signifying potential reversal. On 1 hour timeframe, price has broken out of a rising wedge and retested it.
As a retail trader, one can enter a short position after the bearish engulfing candlestick confirmation. This aligns with the 1 hour breakout and retest. While one can wait for price to break out of the 4 hours rising wedge.
As a smart money trader, one can wait for a change of character and break of structure on the 4 hours timeframe to confirm that price has really changed its trend ready for a reversal.
Either way, one can take advantage of the potential short opportunity on GBPUSD.
Confluences for the short signal:
1. Bearish divergence signal from awesome oscillator on daily and 4 hours timeframe.
2. Rising wedge on 4 hours timeframe.
3. Price mitigating daily supply zone.
4. Price has taken out a significant high as a liquidity.
5. Bearish engulfing candlestick formation on 4 hours timeframe.
Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice. The outcome maybe different from the projection. If you can't accept the risk, don't take the signal.