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CGC is indecision defined.CGC today printed a daily inside bar and intraday we saw very choppy action. I definitely did not expect this after such a strong day Monday that broke daily resistance. Today's volume is in line with yesterday's volume, which is also unusual for an inside bar day. RSI is back within the descending wedge pattern after rejecting from the attempted breakout yesterday, so the hidden bullish divergence on the MACD and RSI hasn't yet, in fact, played out. The key daily support to keep the bulls in control is 46.42, but losing the low of Monday 47.49 would be enough of a bearish signal to me. The key daily resistance to break to see continuation is 51.21. The bull break yesterday with no followthrough is concerning and had me looking for a wedge, but I find it difficult to draw a wedge pattern. Looking at the hourly chart I feel the pattern is more of a parallel channel, but I'm not really a fan of my trendline either given it's drawn from wicks (not real bodies) and I have a wick-violation of the trendline. The hourly MACD is also showing hints of hidden bullish divergence but I cannot draw this line as far back as I can draw the price channel so I give that divergence less weight. The RSI also does not back the divergence up; another notch against the possibility. The conflicting signals I'm seeing across different timeframes don't give me a lot of confidence on the direction we're looking and I'm really going to have to see a break of our key daily range to get a clear signal on where we should be looking. We are now a full month without seeing two green days in a row. Every red day we see between now and legalization is a significant strike against the possibility of seeing all time highs into Oct 17th. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
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by McGuireTO
2
CGC WEED bulls regain the daily uptrendHappy Thanksgiving! Just a quick update, only one ticker tonight. CGC bulls regained the daily uptrend today with a bull break over 50.21. Ew now have a daily higher low and higher high shifting the momentum back to the bulls just one week out from legalization. The RSI is breaking out of it's descending wedge of resistance and following through on the hidden bullish divergence I've been pointing out for the past week. The next resistance is 51.21. Key hourly support is is 48.10. Because CGC had a 6% day today and WEED didn't trade, I expect we'll see a gap up and profit taking first thing as there is information from today on the American ticker that doesn't exist on the Canadian ticker because the TSX was closed. I will be watching for a gap up open and profit taking on names that had a big bull day today (CGC, ACB, etc) and will be watching for bulls to buy that dip when the selling pressure subsides. Looks like our 7 weeks of bull run might have a bit of steam left after all!
C
by McGuireTO
2
TRST lower high set; unclear picture from hereTRST on the daily timeframe in a tightening equilibrium, Friday saw a big bull move on a tweet about a potential beverage deal in the coming months and traders took profit just below the daily key resistance. It looks like our lower high is now in at 12.88 and bulls will regroup and look to form a higher low above 11.52. The hourly chart is unclear where we see a big bull move one candle and the whole move being given back the next. Key short term support is 12.84 and we will be watching on Monday as the price action plays out and gives us a clearer picture of our new setup.
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by McGuireTO
1
NEPT deciding between equilibrium and bear flagA friend just asked me about NEPT so thought I would share that here too. Watching a daily equilibrium here, Ideally the bulls need to hold 5.08 but were not convinced yet that's our daily higher low - 4.92 is the MUST HOLD level for the bulls. We've had a weak bounce so far on decreasing volume which doesn't give the bulls a lot of confidence. Our key range right now is 4.92 - 6.20. IF the bulls do get bounce continuation I'd expect this move to top out somewhere around 6.80 and the bulls would need to regroup to set a higher low; we'll see where that gets set to gauge the likelihood of then breaking out to higher highs. Zooming into the hourly chart we see a clear channel as a range with the last hour of Friday breaking below that channel. That's not a signal per se but it's certainly not giving the bulls any confidence here, and could actually be a daily bear flag setup. Any pullback above 5.37 on the hourly chart is a higher low and keeps the bulls in control, but they need to break above 5.54 early Tuesday morning to give us any confidence in this daily equilibrium pattern. The hourly MACD cross is very weak right now, so we're patiently waiting to see how things play out before we plan any entries, bullish or bearish.
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by McGuireTO
1
OGI could be the strongest name in the sectorOGI had a very significant equilibrium bull break on Friday, breaking key daily resistance on huge volume to see continuation of the previous uptrend. We're looking up at resistances at 7.82, a doubletop at 7.90, and then our all time high at 8.07. OGI actually has a stronger chart that Aurora does, which has not yet broken it's daily equilibrium (but it likely to on Tuesday when the market reopens after Thanksgiving weekend). The bulls are in absolute control here, a daily higher low above 6.63 would keep the uptrend intact but ideally the bulls want to hold that 7.00 level as support.
O
by McGuireTO
Watch TGOD hourly chart for the early signalsTGOD broke the high of Thursday by a penny with no followthrough, remaining in its daily bearflag setup and giving the bulls cause for concern. Key support to hold is 5.92 and bulls must break 6.44 with follow through on big volume in order to negate the bear flag. Anything on the daily chart under 7.30 is just a lower high. To change the trend the bulls will need to negate the bear flag, set a lower high below 7.30, set a higher low above 5.92, then break out to higher highs. If that happens, there is a lack of resistance between here and all time highs and there could be a decent move to the upside. Bulls do appear to be buying the dips the past three trading days but will need to break above our clear resistance level on the daily chart. Looking at the 1hr chart we do see an equilibrium playing out with successive higher lows. The most recent low to hold is 6.07, so any bottomfishing attempts would be made against that support. Break that support and that will increase the likelihood of confirming the bear flag and dropping down to lower lows on the daily chart.
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by McGuireTO
APH chart remains the weakest in the sectorAPH continues to show weakness on the daily timeframe and is still a potential bear flag setup. We were unable to break the high of Thursday but broke the low, continuing to test down towards that very key 15.76 support. To negate that bear flag setup, bulls have to hold that level and break convincingly above 17.28 with big volume and follow through. If they can do that, we will look for a lower high on the daily chart below 18.69. The biggest comfort the bulls have right now is volume is not increasing on the way down towards support, but even that isn't giving too much comfort at this point. Zooming into the 4hr chart we see a clear downtrend pattern of lower highs and lower lows. We are not convinced 15.93 is our new higher low until that first resistance level 17.28 can be broken. We're starting to see the first signs of a bullish MACD cross but it's a weak move right now, and I'm not giving the bulls any benefit of the doubt whatsoever. I like APH but this is one I'm going to be patient with. There is no sense playing the weakest chart in the sector just because I like the company. I'm going to protect my profits by letting the trade come to me instead of trying to catch a falling knife.
A
by McGuireTO
Significant bullbreak puts focus on potential ACB daily breakoutACB broke the 4hr equilibrium bullish today right before market close then the uplisting NYSE application they filed with the SEC surfaced online. The daily volume is only moderately larger, but the amount of volume coming in the last hour of trading was incredible The key resistance now for the daily breakout is 12.95, really 13.00 psychological. Key support to hold is 11.69 on the daily. Daily RSI is also piercing through the resistance line and the bulls want to see continuation early next week to accompany this 4hr breakout. Looking at the 4hr, you can see the clear bullbreak of 12.65 resistance on the 4hr chart. There's a lack of support down to 11.95 and the chart is over-extended. Looking at the 5min chart you can see there hasn't been any short term supports set since 12.05. We are very over extended here and there are no good entries without some healthy consolidation to cool off the charts and give the bulls a rest. You can see the incredible amount of volume pouring in when the SEC uplisting documents surfaced online - so even though the daily chart didn't have impressive volume, you can see how much bullish momentum came in at the end of the day. There were definitely shorts being squeezed on this move, and the next level we will see shorts cover is on the break of $13.00 in my opinion. The Canadian exchanged is closed Monday for Thanksgiving so it will be up to the American ticker ACBFF bulls to determine the fate on Monday. Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that it lost the weekly uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
TSX:ACB
by McGuireTO
CGC looking for a break mid next weekCGC saw another day of consolidation on very low volume, with the low of day holding the lower trendline of the pennant as support. It's clear to me we have another little daily equilibrium forming with the bulls looking to form a higher low relative to 44.90 to form a base of support and run up to break 50.21 and shift the daily trend back in favour of the bulls. On the 4hr chart we can see more details of our equilibrium pattern. The bulls are trying to bounce from 46.42 as our new base of support but we aren't fully confident yet of that as our new higher low. Key range to watch right now is 44.90 - 50.21. Keep an eye on the 4hr chart to watch this range tighten as it gives the most clarity on the short term action. This pullback is more than the bulls would have hoped for, so we are more likely than now to set a lower high and continue this tightening pattern. The RSI and MACD are both showing hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart but that will be negated if we head down to lower lows. Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that it lost the weekly uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
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by McGuireTO
CRON the clear lead bear in the sectorCRON is the clear lead bear of the major names in the sector, not even trying for a bear flag of consolidation, preferring instead to continue a slow bleed down. We will eventually see a bounce, anything under 11.99 will be a lower high and I would not be surprised if the bulls were not even able to penetrate the middle bollinger band. Since losing the RSI support line October 3rd we've seen a backtest of previous support, now resistance, and continuation down to lower lows. Key daily range: 9.94 - 11.99 Zooming into the 4hr shows just how weak CRON is. While other weak names such as APH and TGOD are seeing some sideways consolidation before another leg down, Cronos Group isn't even trying for the equilibrium, instead breaking down to lower highs and lower lows. Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that SPY lost the daily uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships. A great example of that today was a losing trade I made shorting CRON. Let's look at the 5 minute chart below: CRON is represented in the candles and SPY is represented underneath with the bars. You can see the correlation all morning, with a move down, a sideways consolidation bear flag, and a continued move down. The correlation breaks around 1pm and I notice CRON consolidating sideways in a bearish ascending wedge pattern, with multiple tops at 10.15 SPY on the other hand continued down. I placed a pretty large short and was filled at 10.14, with a stop loss at 10.16. I liked this setup because we had cooled off RSI levels, we had a clear resistance level with numerous rejections, and it was the weakest name in the sector on a day when the S&P500 lost the daily uptrend and was dumping - it was the perfect storm to profit significantly on another leg down. At 2:20pm SPY hit the low of the day and started an hourly oversold bounce that ultimately led to a bull break that stopped me out of my short for a decent sized loss, due to slippage. This is one instance where the setup and the plan were absolutely perfect, - except I forgot to check the correlation. SPY hourly RSI had briefly touched 16 and bounced, stopping me out for a loss. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
NASDAQ:CRON
by McGuireTO
3
WEED the most likely to negate daily bear flagWEED on the daily timeframe left a bearish dark cloud candle and a possible bear flag pattern. Increasing bear volume is a concern for the bulls. We are still within our larger daily pennant but that pattern will break bearish if we lose 57.60. The hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart will be less likely to play out with the loss of this level as well. Key daily range: 57.60 - 66.23 Zooming into the 4hr we see a bit of a more hopeful picture with a tightening equilibrium. Bulls have seen enough of a bounce that we can anticipate them holding 57.60 support forming a higher low, and the extend of the pullback will determine the likelihood of breaking 64.63 resistance or forming a lower high relative to that level. Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that SPY lost the daily uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
TSX:WEED
by McGuireTO
TGOD bear flag setup gives bulls little comfortTGOD daily chart is weak, similar to Aphria with a convincing bear flag pattern printing. Bulls could only break high of yesterdya by 3 cents before immediately rejecting and pulling back. Daily RSI level is right up against a downtrend line; bulls are going to need some volume to break the high of today and to break through that RSI downtrend resistance in order to negate the bearflag. A break of 5.92 will confirm the bearflag. If the bulls do find continuation of the bounce, anything under 7.31 will be a lower high. Key daily levels - 5.92 - 6.43 Zooming into the 4hr chart we don't see a very optimistic picture whatosever - sideways consolidation doing nothing except cooling off the RSI potentially in advance of another leg down. Our 4hr higher low in the equilibrium is at 6.00, if we lose that level we will likely break the daily support as well. Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that SPY lost the daily uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
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by McGuireTO
APH a convincing bear flag setupAPH has a similar setup to CGC and WEED but is far weaker; Canopy has seen enough of a bounce and a moderate enough pullback to potentially see continuation of the oversold bounce, but Aphria doubletopped at the high of yesterday (breaking by only 2 pennies) and had a much more aggressive pullback today. Both Canopy and Aphria are potential bear flag patterns on the daily, but when you look into the 4hr charts of each name you can see why the bear flag is more likely to confirm on Aphria than it is on Canopy. Key daily levels - break 15.76 support to confirm bearflag, break 17.28 resistance convincingly with volume to negate the bearflag Zooming into the 4hr chart you can see the much weaker bounce and the much stronger pullback that makes this setup much weaker than Canopy Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that SPY lost the daily uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
A
by McGuireTO
ACB equilibrium break on watch tomorrowACB saw a gap up and profit taking, forming a daily lower high right within the range I was anticipating. The daily chart is going to break Friday, and if not Friday, then Monday by way of the American ticker ACBFF, making the break Tuesday when the Canadian market reopens after Thanksgiving. The daily printed a bearish dark cloud cover candle. The key daily range is 12.65 - 11.69. Beak bull, and bulls continue to test $13 and $13.50 resistances. Break bear, and we look down to test supports at 11.21 and 10.87 Zooming into the 4hr shows us that our daily equilibrium is now so tight, it's playing out on the 4hr chart. I find this gives the best clarity on what's going on. Bulls are trying to hold 11.98 as the new support but have not yet bounced enough to give us confidence that higher low is in. Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that SPY lost the daily uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
TSX:ACB
by McGuireTO
3
CGC 4hr equilibrium attempting to negate daily bear flagCGC on the daily timeframe left a bearish dark cloud candle and a possible bear flag pattern. Increasing bear volume is a concern for the bulls. We are still within our larger daily pennant but that pattern will break bearish if we lose 44.90. The hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart will be less likely to play out with the loss of this level as well. Key daily range: 44.90 - 51.21 Zooming into the 4hr we see a bit of a more hopeful picture with a tightening equilibrium. Bulls have seen enough of a bounce that we can ancitipate them holding 44.90 support forming a higher low, and the extend of the pullback will determine the likelihood of breaking 50.35 resistance or forming a lower high relative to that level. Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that SPY lost the daily uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
C
by McGuireTO
APH triple bottom of support to watchAPH once again held key support, making 15.76 a very important range to watch in the coming days and weeks. Bullish reversal candle on the daily, and a daily inside bar, bulls want first thing tomorrow to break the high of the day 17.26. There's a support at 16.68 but price hasn't bounced enough from that level to convince us that's the new hourly higher low. Anything under 18.69 is a daily lower high and we would anticipate a daily higher low once this bounce tops out. This bounce doesn't change the fact we're in a daily downtrend here, this is nothing more than an hourly oversold bounce at this point. I do see some potential hidden bullish RSI divergence but it's not as convincing as CGC/WEED divergence so we will have to keep an eye on this potential clue. The range to watch on the daily is is is 15.76 - 18.69, with a close watch on 17.26 first thing tomorrow morning to ensure the bulls can see continuation. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
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by McGuireTO