WEED - letting the dust settleWatching the WEED.TO range from low of Friday to high of today. Today's low bounced right off the golden pocket of the fib pull with swing low as the oversold bounce low, to the high of today. It will be interesting to see if that holds. I'll be remaining very patient as the next couple of days set a tightening range with new levels to play off of. The break of that tightening pattern will set momentum for the days to follow. I find the most clarity here on the 4hr and daily charts.
The bear volume today was significant
We know there is ETF balancing ongoing this week that must settle up Friday, so I am leaning towards seeing more selling pressure into tomorrow and Friday.
Weedstocks
pattern almost donelooking at 3rd consolidation move now. market likes to move in 3's. So were very likely to see a big volatility move soon. In addition to the cup and handle/ascending triangle that has been panning out for quite some time now, this is definitely looking very bullish. needs that confirmation volume to drive it home or else it will fizzle out.
3 chariots of gloryIm coining that term for the first 3 waves (5 including retraces) that start the big momentum parabolic move without even having any ABC correction. This move is very popular in bubble markets and was observed a lot in the altcoin market in december 2017/january 2018.
A few other stocks that have this pattern (completed) are OTC:GTBIF and TSX:WEED (if you look at the montlhy chart its very obvious).
Looking for a big parabolic move here with will bring us way past previous ath
CGC - Short for the big incoming correction.CGC has completed 5 waves up on the weekly chart. Get ready for a big long ABC correction down to around $22-$25.
TLRY - might be time for a pullback, reentry targetCrazy run up, wish I bought in earlier. But looks like a good time to take a little profit, with an aim for reentry around the 50MA (blue line) and the Yellow Kijen line. I put Pink squares around areas
around areas of interest where the pattern repeats, it seems to have played out a few times already.
Is Shopify going to be the Amazon of the Dope Game?Rumors
Shopify is a platform that allows small businesses to launch e-commerce websites, so who knows online retail better than them?
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Shopify SHOP:CN is a Canadian e-commerce powerhouse. Kylie Jenner made almost a billion dollars and guess which platform is credited with helping her do the most in the make up game?
In February of this year news came that it would be partnering with the Ontario Government to handle online cannabis sales with the provincially run Ontario Cannabis Retail Corp. This is probably one of the better moves by the Government, because they are known to be literally the worst at making business decisions.
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I mean, who pays $700k for a logo that looks like this? Bruh, I could have done that shit in paint. Holy Face Palm Emoji Batman.
OK, so there was some other marketing wrapped up in that deal but let’s just say that Ontario tax payers and blunt smokers alike should have been happy about the Shopify news.
Anyways, the news in Feb sent SHOP stock soaring to new highs and was baked into the price at the time.
After a recent pullback, the stock is now moving back to its all time highs. This is because there are many new articles coming out about the impact that Cannabis will have to SHOP’s bottom line. At this time, several Canadian provinces have picked Shopify to run their e-commerce websites and the company has also signed deals with marijuana companies including Canopy Growth Corp.
This has the stock up about 3% at the time of this writing.
This is an abbreviated synopses of my thesis for investing in this stock. A detailed and rigorous analysis relying on trusted information from various sources and analysis tools learned over time is always present in the decision making of these equity choices, but omitted for proprietary reasons.
Fundamentals
Everybody knows that Cannabis is the new frontier. The once taboo “drug” has now become mainstream, and investors cannot wait to jump in to companies that produce, refine or sell it on the retail level.
Shopify is not a cheap company by any traditional metrics. We normally like to buy good companies that are growing fast when they are cheap, so caution is warranted here. However, this company is doing 9 Billion dollars in sales a quarter and is growing at 56% a year.
That being said, the numbers are growing like weed (ha), even without the company slingin’ herb on the side. The potential for this to entice investors to jump in the stock and set the stock a blaze. Ok, I’ll stop.
If these deals fall apart it is difficult to justify a valuation of over $120. In a down market this kind of stock can fall to $40-50 easily. The trading range on this stock is wider than my waistline after Thanksgiving Dinner.
Technicals
Technically, the stock has consolidated after a pullback from what looked like a double top in early august and has reversed that pattern, which is typically very bullish. This is because when there’s a technical pattern that easy to recognize, technical traders rush to short the stock. As that pattern get’s invalidated, those short sellers have to cover their positions and buy back the stock.
See the chart for a quick TA and trade breakdown.
Will Coca-Cola be the next big player in the Cannabis Market?Aurora ACB:CN is a Canadian Cannabis stock that is up 15% today on news it’s in talks with Coca-Cola, about starting a partnership in the weed game. Imagine going to the corner store or wherever beer, wine & liquor are sold and seeing Cannabis infused drinks beside your Bud Light or Corona.
I’ve been asked by many of my subscribers to publish my picks, in real time. Unlike most pundits, analysts and personalities, I will be doing so in an open and transparent way, so that I show my process, win or lose.
One thing for sure is that Coca-cola does it BIG, so any deal for Aurora will be huge and have immediate impact on the companies earnings.
MOST CANNABIS STOCKS ARE OVER VALUED AND OVER HYPED. THIS IS A RISKY TRADE. PLEASE CONSIDER RISK OF LOSS BEFORE CONSIDERING TO PURCHASE THIS STOCK WITH ME. PLEASE ALSO RISK ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.
At the time of this writing, Aurora is trading at $9.86. I have purchasing 2000 shares on the open market. Here are my trade parameters, for your consideration.
MY BUY PRICE: $9.73
BUY RANGE: $8.00 - $10.50
1ST TARGET: $24.50 - $15.90
2ND TARGET: $28.00 - $32.75 (if a deal actually gets done)
STOP LOSS: $7.20 - $7.60
Notice: Stocks like this can move very quickly, so experienced traders may want to use a mental stop zone, so they are not whip sawed out of a trade. Inexperienced traders may choose to put a simple limit at $7.50 and not re-enter the trade if stopped out. If the rumors fall apart, I will be exiting the trade at those prices.
While Aurora has not gone hyperbolic like other stocks in the sector such as Tilray (TLRY:US) and Canopy (WEED:CN, CGC:US), it is important to note it should not be worth more than $3, even with a generous fundamental valuation. This sector is on fire and completely controlled by momentum traders and speculators.
CRON bounce was by far the weakest of the major sector namesCRON low of Friday was just below the .5 retracement from low of consolidation to all time high 13.39. It had the weakest bounce Friday out of the big four, rejecting hard from the .382 dump retracement whereas other names hit the .5 or in the case of APH hit the .618. Watching the hourly chart for a break of it's tightening range to indicate short term momentum for this week, and helping to define levels for the daily tightening pattern on a macro level
APH nails Lower High target; Do the bulls have more energy?APH After retracing almost .5 of the move up from the low of consolidation before the constellation news breakout to our recent high, I was watching for a lower high to be set in the mid $19 range, right around where we closed Friday. It will be notable if the bulls keep pushing higher, and when they tire out I'll be watching for a higher low compared to low of Friday $15.95 and a tightening daily equilibrium.
ACB Uplisting Announcement Muddying Lower High targetACB After retracing almost .5 of the move up from the low of consolidation before the constellation news to our recent high, I was watching for a lower high to be set somewhere between $upper $8 range. Cam Battley confirming in an interview with Midas Letter ACB uplisting to a major US exchange after close on Friday. I'm now looking slightly higher for a profit target, but the lack of a formal press release hasn't given me much to adjust so far. After hours Friday saw ACB trading on PURE exchange for 9.15, which is the .786 retracement of the dump.
wedge consolidationTesting downtrend line harder and harder. Looking for long opportunity with tight stop loss in case of descending triangle breakdown
CGC tightening range on watch this coming weekCGC After retracing .5 of the move up from the low of consolidation before the constellation news to recent all time high, I'm now watching for a lower high to be set somewhere between $49-50 range. If we get a quick push up Monday to that area I would expect enough profit taking to have us looking back down to find a new base of support above Friday's low $40.68
WEED.TO tightening range on watch this coming weekWEED.TO After retracing .5 of the move up from the low of consolidation before the constellation news to recent all time high, I'm now watching for a lower high to be set somewhere between $64-65 range. If we get a quick push up Monday to that area I would expect enough profit taking to have us looking back down to find a new base of support above Friday's low $52.80
Pressure building inside wedge!RSI and price charts are showing concentrated pressure. Probably gonna pop a bit here soon. We're really close to the all time low points from the past, and honestly $1 seems like a great value for this stock. Got me 200 shares. Planning to hold until year's end or late spring depending on when it REALLY pops.
Love Terra Tech. and all they've got going!Downward pennant, bearish reversal pattern. Likely to bounce up in the coming month.
This company is strategically placed to quickly take advantage of further legalization here in the U.S. and outside as well. Check out their other enriched food products besides cannabis as well! They've got a bunch of hydroponic food farms that are prepped for cannabis when legalized in those areas. Love this company, and going to be holding for a long time.
www.terratechcorp.com
WEED back within an old narrowing ascending channelWEED.TO finds itself back within an ascending channel, for the first time since losing it June 26th. Indicators on larger time frames are getting very extended as the price level tests the upper limit of the channel, and while the price is at all time highs and running on both hype and news, I do believe at least temporary consolidation is in the very near term future. That said, I expect this reentry to be rejected and for a new support level to be found.
STF Cronos Group INC / CRON short. Time for a cool down.Cronos has performed great, especially today amid a minor weed stocks sell-off but the chart is showing signs of exhaustion and fundamentally it is over-priced for its sector, despite being one of the few making money.
FA
Horizons cannabis fund $HMMJ and $MJ will begin re-balancing around September. I predict some of CRON will be sold-off to maintain weighting.
Weed stocks are all "over-priced" and the recent cannabis supply agreement in Canada may mean further government supplied products hitting the market.
TA
RSI's both show over-bought.
Big gap up followed by lower volume.