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Week50

USDJPY, week 50 analysis, a beautiful trend movementI love the movement of USDJPY in week 50, it moved quickly and completed the whole trend levels. USDJPY started with a W, moving upwards fast during the opening hours in week 50, and never looked back. Through week 50, it managed to create all the consolidation zones on the H1 and went on to create a reversal M on its level 3, and only moved away to form a level 1 downtrend a few hours before the close of the market on Friday. I managed to enter a couple of profitable trades when USDJPY is in its level 2 and 3. I exited the short from its level 3 before the close of the markets as I do not want any unpleasant surprises and gap during the opening of the market in week 51. I am maintaining a bearish outlook for this pair, I will be finding the short opportunities in the coming week. Such movement of the USDJPY can wipe out traders who made their decision(s) partly or hugely on the correlations between currency pairs. For example, we generally know that USDJPY and EURUSD has an inverse relationship; one moves up, and the other one down and vice versa. In week 50, EURUSD constrained itself to a range of roughly 170 pips, staying at level 1 consolidation uptrend, and even break below the obvious support line in its level 1 zone, which it made a pullback before market closure. However, we did not see USDJPY engaging on similar price movement, instead, it made a full 3 levels uptrend. EURUSD consolidated, while USDJPY made a clear trend movement. This is a great example of how trading on correlations between pairs can hamper your outlook, trade entries, and profitability. However, many of us are susceptible to such focus on correlations, so I circumvent such focus by focusing on 1 pair at a time, and only enter when candlestick patterns, overall trend views are clear to me. With the price movements of USDJPY in week 50, I am confident to suggest us taking the bearish view and find good opportunities to enter short in USDJPY. You can do it in stages, breaking up contract sizes into smaller portion if you are not too confident or unsure about its movement in week 51. For me, I am going to build up contact sizes when the market opens. If you have any thoughts on USDJPY's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like and share this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates! If you would like to see how I enter and manages my trade, it would be shared on Twitter (@xunnobi) and StockTwits (@xunnobi)
Short
by xunnobi
EURUSD, week 50 analysis for week 51, profitable conslidation. Week 50 sees the whole week in zone 1, with a full range of roughly 170 pips movement through Monday to Friday. I did a couple of long and short within this consolidation and fortunately, it is wide enough for day traders like to me net a profitable week by trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and, USDCHF. The analysis points us towards a bull trend, even though the low of zone 1 did go back to the low that reversal W has touched. Such price movements have happened before when the level 1 zone went back up to the low/high of the preceding W/M. Such moves would have made the long exited or started shorting, and tempt the shorters to increase their position. Either way, big contracts would have been entered and piled up in such a situation when the consolidation lasted for a couple of weeks in a big range from between 120 pips to 200 pips. From the chart, we can see an extended zone 1 which lasted for 3 weeks. Within that zone, if you are day trading or following micro trends, there would be many long and short opportunities lying around for us to pick. You need to combine the H1 chart with the M15 chart and trade on a daily basis to capture the movements. If you are trading on an H4 or D1 chart, chances are you would have taken lesser trades, but remain profitable on a bullish outlook. With the price movements, trend and chart patterns, I am in the view of continuing to look out for buying opportunities characterized by price levels and candlestick patterns. Breakout traders would have shorted as price broke below 1.13042, however, do note that it went back to zone 1 before the closure of the market on Friday. With such pullback, I caution against shorting. Stay flexible to changes in trend, and make the necessary change in outlook if needs arise. If you have any thoughts on EURUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like and share this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates! If you would like to see how I enter and manages my trade, it would be shared on Twitter (@xunnobi) and StockTwits (@xunnobi)
Long
by xunnobi
GBPUSD, Week 50 analysis, a long for week 51Week 49's analysis of GBPUSD pointed us towards a long with a level 3 zone and an identified W shape. However, in week 50, we see it fell 282 pips, I was in for long, and it wiped me off 10% of my account's equity. I got out on Monday and did some short-term trades in Tuesday and I finally long it on Wednesday. Together with other pairs, I managed to achieve roughly 17% week on week returns. Week 50's Wednesday see a completion of W shape, which sends the pair upwards of 210 pips and ended the week back at 1.25801, prior to moving up to 1.25801, the price bounced off at 1.25286, which gives us confidence that the first V might be formed, which explained why I placed a level 1 zone after the W. That gave me comfort to say that the H1 trend has changed to a bull trend, from a previous bearish trend which lasted a couple of weeks. Even though the analysis points towards a new bull trend which started from Wednesday in Week 50, we still need to stay flexible and mindful of the announcement that would be coming in week 51. Manage the position size carefully and a reasonable stop loss based on pips, price, or pattern break would be helpful for traders in the short term. I will look for opportunities to long when the market opens in week 51 and hopefully, this long trade can last for a while upwards. Share your thoughts below, and we can all learn together. Please help me to like and share this post, and also follow me for weekly analysis on forex pairs! Thank you!! =)
Long
by xunnobi