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Week51

USDCHF, Week 51's analysis. Short in week 52?Week 51 has seen USDCHF dropping back to Week 49's low. As with week 50's analysis, a level 2 uptrend was spotted, and I do not feel comfortable that it will continue to rise even though it was at a level 2 up trend. So indeed, when market opens on week 52, it went down straight on monday, and ended the week somewhere in the middle of week 51's weekly range. So what can we expect in week 52? I am now seeing it at a level 2 bearish trend , and I am confident that it will continue to drop further. The rise back up on friday gave shorter a chance to enter short at a better price, and I placed multiple small entries too. The current identified level 2 downtrend showed the high of level 2 zone reached back up to level 1 zone, with a lower low at level 2 zone. This might be a process of High/Low reset, as we are approaching the end of the year, with many traders going on holiday, I won't be surprised if next week still range within the high and low of level 2 downtrend. If we further identified a High/Low rest, then we will need to forget about the level counting, and wait for a reversal pattern before we continue a new level count on either the up or down trend. Conclusion As of now, I am expecting a drop to the low of level 2 zone made in week 51. However, stay alert and open, be flexible to change side if market changes. Have a profitable week 52! If you have any thoughts on USDCHF's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like and share this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
GBPUSD, week 51 analysis - where to in week 52?Week 51 continued its upward expectation that we had in week 50's analysis. It reached a bullish level 2, and largely confined itself to a limited range of about 80 pips between its weekly high and low. If you long, you will be in profit for the first half of the week, similar to EURUSD . It was surprising to me that the break to level 2 was just a minor one. I was expecting about 50 to 80 pips break above the high of level 1. (The high and low of the zone can be seen at the box drawn) That being said, as it was approaching the end of the year, the market usually gets choppy for a little while as a lot of traders are on holiday. Even though week 51 has moved itself to a bullish level 2 zone, there is something interesting that I spotted. If you look at the zone, we can see multiple tries to retouch the high of level 2 zone. The attempt to retouch the high during the later part of week 51 was unsuccessful, it did not reach the high as compared to the first half of the week. That signaled me to be cautious in building up my position in GBPUSD in week 52. Even though I am in the view that we should continue to long, that failed attempts to retouch the high has made me wary of the strength of the bull trend. Instead, the same can be said for the multiple touches, trying to retouch the low of level 2 zone which proved unsuccessful as well. However, because we have identified the trend as bullish , it is more of a red flag for not breaking the high, than not breaking the low. It is obvious too that the price is not ranging. For week 52, we might witness false breakouts or a continuation of the bullish trend to level 3. I certainly hope to see an upward break of 50 to 80 pips upwards as I am holding long contracts. If you have any thoughts on GBPUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like and follow me for my weekly updates!
Long
by xunnobi
EURUSD week 51 analysis, expectations for week 52Yes, if we followed week 50's analysis, we would have ended our first four trading day in profit, as it rises as expected. However, friday would have trapped long traders or clear off their profit. There is a micro 3 level trend that pushes EURUSD upwards which ended with a triple top and followed to drop about 100 pips just on friday alone. The move might have scared many long traders out and attract shorts in the process. I am however in the view that the movement of week 51 is in a bullish level 2 zone. From the analysis of week 50, we saw a big consolidation, followed by a rise in week 51. The long in week 51 did push the price above the level 1 zone of EURUSD , however, it fell back down into the level 2 zone. It did not form a lower low than the level 1 zone which might suggest a high/low reset like what we see in USDCHF . We are still seeing the price movement following the bull trend level counting. However, we might be seeing a more volatile up and downward swing in each consolidation zone, rather than fast trades before week 49. Traders who are going in long should be wary and lower their contract sizes to manage the risk exposure. I am currently holding a small long position as well, and I expect week 52 to be moving upwards. 1.136 is actually a refraction zone where prices have either break upwards or downwards. So this price zone +/- 20 pips is a potential area for the price to turn back on its bullish track. Since we also identified the overall trend as a bullish one. For long entry, it can be build up since the prices have dropped, however, as always, stay flexible and alert. Be ready to exit if things are not in accordance with the plan. If you have any thoughts on EURUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like and share this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Long
by xunnobi
USDJPY, week 51 analysis, big winner!USDJPY has proved to be the biggest winner amongst the four pairs that we have analyzed in week 50. I caught the first drop till level 2. I missed the drop from level 2 to level 3 because I was expecting a longer consolidation. If you have shorted in week 51, congrats to you for a very profitable week. USDJPY ended the week with consolidation at level 3, I am unsure if it will go on to level 4 instead. Using the usual form of analysis, we should expect a reversal at this level, and we have also seen a reversal pattern of W. However, I am unsure why I am not very confident about this reversal, thus, I will be waiting for a retouch to the low of level 3 zone with the correct candlestick combination before I go in long for USDJPY . According to my analysis, we can expect a reversal or upward move for USDJPY . My personal opinion would be for us to wait and see the movement coming ahead. If its a persistent downtrend, it can extend way below level 3. I am personally not too confident of the rise, however, from my knowledge and experience of using my trend analysis, my personal hunch can be wrong at times. Therefore, you can wait for a candlestick pattern near the low of level 3 consolidation or you can try and refrain from trading in week 52 and wait for a clearer picture. If you have any thoughts on USDJPY's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like and follow me for my weekly updates!
by xunnobi
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