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Week52

USDJPY, start of bull for week 1, 2019USDJPY has made a very predictable and good price movement. Anyone who has shorted it since week 50, would have ended with very good profit! I personally shorted but did not hold it all the way as I mainly day trade, so I got a couple of drop while USDJPY was on its way down. So what can we expect for 2019, week 1? From my analysis, the bear movement of USDJPY should have ended, and a new bull trend on 1H should be coming up. I would expect perhaps week 1 or week 2 of 2019 to make bullish movement, to perhaps finish off the 3 bullish level, and they can continue on to bear and back to bull. Some traders have asked me how long can the trend last? My answer: as long as it last. Even though counting the zones and levels have been fairly accurate to give us an overview of the price movement, this type of analysis does not provide an estimate of how many pips it will go. It is based on price movement and price patterns. Trying to estimate the extent of pips movement is not a strength of my trend analysis. However, from the price movements, we can usually infer how strong the current trend is. For USDJPPY, the bear trend that was showing itself in the H1 chart is quite strong, giving very little space for range movement in the respective zones, it went straight down with no hesitation. so it might take a while for the bull trend to commence because it takes time for traders to accept or to change their positions from bear to bull. That being said, I am in the view that week 1 of 2019 will bring the prices up, at least break up to a bullish level 2 trend. Keep an open mind and be flexible if there is a need to change your positions. That will keep us profitable for the many years to come. If you have any thoughts on USDJPY's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Long
by xunnobi
GBPUSD, moving from 2018 to 2019GBPUSD did not move a lot in week 52 of 2018, it did break upwards to a bullish level 3 zone, however, it wasn't by a lot. Anyone who entered long in this pair would have stayed in the green, however, it might not hit the expectations of many traders. Most of the movement was spent in the range of the level 3 zone. The price movement doesn't seem convinced that it will continue to head upwards, and a reversal pattern was spotted in the level 3 zone, which hinted that the following week 1 of 2019, we might see a new bearish trend. The break from bullish level 1 to level 2 and top level 3 wasn't too fantastic. Each break upwards is just marginally higher than the previous. This did not give me confidence on the upward strength of GBPUSD. On the other hand, GBPUSD hinted that the coming bearish trend will be as strong as the second top of the double top pattern in level 3 zone failed to reach the same high as the first top. I will be building contract short contracts and expecting a drop for week 1 of 2019. However, lets stay flexible and open to market development and trade in the direction of the market, so we can all stay profitable in 2019! If you have any thoughts on GBPUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
EURUSD, analysis for week 52. 2019 is differentEURUSD has successfully pushed up to level 2 for week 52, anyone who long this pair since last week would be able to see a good profit. However, because of their price movement in week 50 to 52, it prompted me to question my outlook on this particular pair using my usual trend following on 1H chart. We have seen this pair went up to a bullish level 2 zone, which usually means that it will continue higher to level 3. However, this time around, I will be looking at EURUSD reversing at level 2. I interpreted the level 1 as a high low rest and a reversal pattern in its level 2 zone. What we see at level 2 is a double top, which will set the reversal stage for 2019, week 1. A double top occurring in a bullish level 2 zone can also continue its upward trend by simply failing to break the previous low formed in zone 2, or creating a flag pattern. I am more towards a reversal this time around because it seems that the weakening of USD is not going to be permanent and a government shutdown occurred in week 52 did not bring this pair a lot higher. So it seems that the overview of EURUSD is more bearish than bullish. Therefore I am giving a higher probability to an upcoming bearish trend in week 1 of 2019. I hope all traders will continue with their good performance and make consistent profit from the market! If you have any thoughts on EURUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
USDCHF, last move for 2018. Rdy for 2019Finally a completion of a 3 level moves for USDCHF! Last week, the analysis point us towards a drop in USDCHF for week 52, and fortunately it did end up a lot lower with a new level 3 zone. This three level downward moves did throw me off a little with the high of level 2 zone getting to same level as zone 1, it triggered my paranoia of a high/low rest. Currently we only see half of the W being formed therefore I have yet to put a rectangle on the level 3 zone. For week 1 of 2019, ideally a candlestick pattern to push the price up so to confirm a complete W shape before we can take a good long position. With the absence of a complete reversal formation, long can also be entered at a smaller position. You can build up the long positions with longer monitoring frequency. If you have shorted in week 52, you would have net a good profit before the market closes. I changed my outlook of USDCHF to a long from short in week 51. However, do note that level usually stops at three but not always they will end off at three zones. For USDJPY, we have seen the fourth zone in week 52. Be flexible, stay open and be ready to take on positions on the other side! Hope your 2018 has been great and continue the great work in 2019! If you have any thoughts on USDCHF's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Long
by xunnobi
USDCHF, Week 51's analysis. Short in week 52?Week 51 has seen USDCHF dropping back to Week 49's low. As with week 50's analysis, a level 2 uptrend was spotted, and I do not feel comfortable that it will continue to rise even though it was at a level 2 up trend. So indeed, when market opens on week 52, it went down straight on monday, and ended the week somewhere in the middle of week 51's weekly range. So what can we expect in week 52? I am now seeing it at a level 2 bearish trend , and I am confident that it will continue to drop further. The rise back up on friday gave shorter a chance to enter short at a better price, and I placed multiple small entries too. The current identified level 2 downtrend showed the high of level 2 zone reached back up to level 1 zone, with a lower low at level 2 zone. This might be a process of High/Low reset, as we are approaching the end of the year, with many traders going on holiday, I won't be surprised if next week still range within the high and low of level 2 downtrend. If we further identified a High/Low rest, then we will need to forget about the level counting, and wait for a reversal pattern before we continue a new level count on either the up or down trend. Conclusion As of now, I am expecting a drop to the low of level 2 zone made in week 51. However, stay alert and open, be flexible to change side if market changes. Have a profitable week 52! If you have any thoughts on USDCHF's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like and share this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
GBPUSD, week 51 analysis - where to in week 52?Week 51 continued its upward expectation that we had in week 50's analysis. It reached a bullish level 2, and largely confined itself to a limited range of about 80 pips between its weekly high and low. If you long, you will be in profit for the first half of the week, similar to EURUSD . It was surprising to me that the break to level 2 was just a minor one. I was expecting about 50 to 80 pips break above the high of level 1. (The high and low of the zone can be seen at the box drawn) That being said, as it was approaching the end of the year, the market usually gets choppy for a little while as a lot of traders are on holiday. Even though week 51 has moved itself to a bullish level 2 zone, there is something interesting that I spotted. If you look at the zone, we can see multiple tries to retouch the high of level 2 zone. The attempt to retouch the high during the later part of week 51 was unsuccessful, it did not reach the high as compared to the first half of the week. That signaled me to be cautious in building up my position in GBPUSD in week 52. Even though I am in the view that we should continue to long, that failed attempts to retouch the high has made me wary of the strength of the bull trend. Instead, the same can be said for the multiple touches, trying to retouch the low of level 2 zone which proved unsuccessful as well. However, because we have identified the trend as bullish , it is more of a red flag for not breaking the high, than not breaking the low. It is obvious too that the price is not ranging. For week 52, we might witness false breakouts or a continuation of the bullish trend to level 3. I certainly hope to see an upward break of 50 to 80 pips upwards as I am holding long contracts. If you have any thoughts on GBPUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like and follow me for my weekly updates!
Long
by xunnobi
EURUSD week 51 analysis, expectations for week 52Yes, if we followed week 50's analysis, we would have ended our first four trading day in profit, as it rises as expected. However, friday would have trapped long traders or clear off their profit. There is a micro 3 level trend that pushes EURUSD upwards which ended with a triple top and followed to drop about 100 pips just on friday alone. The move might have scared many long traders out and attract shorts in the process. I am however in the view that the movement of week 51 is in a bullish level 2 zone. From the analysis of week 50, we saw a big consolidation, followed by a rise in week 51. The long in week 51 did push the price above the level 1 zone of EURUSD , however, it fell back down into the level 2 zone. It did not form a lower low than the level 1 zone which might suggest a high/low reset like what we see in USDCHF . We are still seeing the price movement following the bull trend level counting. However, we might be seeing a more volatile up and downward swing in each consolidation zone, rather than fast trades before week 49. Traders who are going in long should be wary and lower their contract sizes to manage the risk exposure. I am currently holding a small long position as well, and I expect week 52 to be moving upwards. 1.136 is actually a refraction zone where prices have either break upwards or downwards. So this price zone +/- 20 pips is a potential area for the price to turn back on its bullish track. Since we also identified the overall trend as a bullish one. For long entry, it can be build up since the prices have dropped, however, as always, stay flexible and alert. Be ready to exit if things are not in accordance with the plan. If you have any thoughts on EURUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like and share this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Long
by xunnobi
USDJPY, week 51 analysis, big winner!USDJPY has proved to be the biggest winner amongst the four pairs that we have analyzed in week 50. I caught the first drop till level 2. I missed the drop from level 2 to level 3 because I was expecting a longer consolidation. If you have shorted in week 51, congrats to you for a very profitable week. USDJPY ended the week with consolidation at level 3, I am unsure if it will go on to level 4 instead. Using the usual form of analysis, we should expect a reversal at this level, and we have also seen a reversal pattern of W. However, I am unsure why I am not very confident about this reversal, thus, I will be waiting for a retouch to the low of level 3 zone with the correct candlestick combination before I go in long for USDJPY . According to my analysis, we can expect a reversal or upward move for USDJPY . My personal opinion would be for us to wait and see the movement coming ahead. If its a persistent downtrend, it can extend way below level 3. I am personally not too confident of the rise, however, from my knowledge and experience of using my trend analysis, my personal hunch can be wrong at times. Therefore, you can wait for a candlestick pattern near the low of level 3 consolidation or you can try and refrain from trading in week 52 and wait for a clearer picture. If you have any thoughts on USDJPY's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like and follow me for my weekly updates!
by xunnobi
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