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Weekahead

$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) $SPX breached its 200-day moving average, as $SPX upward momentum faltered with a -1.90% plunge on Friday after National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan acknowledged there was a “distinct possibility” that Russia could invade Ukraine before the end of the Olympics. $SPX ended the market week with a loss of -1.82%. $SPX remains resisted by a Downtrend Line coinciding with its all time high VWAP resistance. It is worth to note further deceleration of deterioration on market technical is witnessed on US Market Net Highs/Lows, with only -65 companies for the week (comparing to -121 companies on previous week). The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,320 level. A breach of 4,320 level would be concerning in mid-term as it would confirm the establishment of a downtrend channel (lower highs, lower lows) on $SPX. he large-cap indices struggled last week, as risk sentiment was pressured by increased rate-hike expectations and concerns over tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The S&P 500 fell -1.8%, the Nasdaq Composite fell -2.2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -1.0%. The Russell 2000, however, rose +1.4%. Wednesday’s Fed minutes may provide a sense of how quickly policymakers want a rate-hike. The U.S. data calendar features January figures on producer prices, which will be closely watched after data last week showing consumer prices hit their highest in 40 years last month. Meanwhile, earnings season is ending, but not before a last flurry of reports. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. 1. Geopolitical tensions – Gold & Crude Wall Street’s three main indexes closed sharply lower on Friday after the White House warned that a Russian attack on Ukraine could begin any day. While stocks got hit, prices for Treasuries, the dollar and other safe-haven assets, such as gold ($GLD) rose. Crude prices also surged as the prospect of sanctions on Russia, a top producer, added to fears over already tight global supplies. Some analysts believe soaring crude prices could exacerbate already high inflation, adding to pressure on the Fed to raise rates more aggressively. 2. Geopolitical tensions – Lessons from 2014 In keeping in line with history, we could draw lessons from when Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Tensions intensified over February through March in 2014 with the ensuing invasion drove a brief rally in the US 10-year Treasury note from a peak of 3.03% at the end of 2013 to about 2.58% by early February before stabilising in a 2.45%–2.6% range until June. There was a similarly mild and short-lived response in stocks and at a time of many other developments. The S&P500 sold-off by under 6% from late January through early February 2014 and then went on to rally for the remainder of the year. Russia eventually got heavily sanctioned and the ruble eventually collapses and subsequently drives imported inflation much higher. That scenario in 2014–15 drove the Russian central bank to hike its key rate from 5.5% at the start of 2014 to a peak of 17% by the end of 2014. The Russian economy achieved no growth in 2014 and shrank by 2% in 2015. Nevertheless, differences to 2014 include the facts that Russia’s military build-up appears to be much larger this time than in 2014 and both Europe and the US appear to be much more supportive militarily. Whether the net effect raises risk, or lowers it given a stronger counter presence is highly uncertain. 3. FOMC With markets already pricing in a strong chance the Fed will hike rates by half a percentage point at its upcoming March meeting, Wednesday’s minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, will be scrutinized for any indications on how big a move officials are contemplating. Last month Fed Chair Jerome Powell flagged a March lift-off and said there was “quite a bit of room” to raise interest rates without threatening the recovery in the labor market. Last Thursday Bullard said in the light of the latest CPI reading he now wants a full percentage point of interest rate hikes over the next three Fed meetings. On Friday, Goldman Sachs said it now expects seven quarter percentage point rate hikes this year, up from its previous forecast of five, as it updated its forecast following Thursday’s U.S. CPI data. 4. Earnings Earnings season is drawing to a close, but this week will see a big flurry of notable reports. Airbnb Inc ($ABNB) reports on Tuesday, followed by semiconductor giant NVIDIA ($NVDA) and Cisco Systems ($CSCO), which are both due to report after the close of trade on Wednesday. Deere ($DE), the world’s largest maker of farm equipment reports Friday. Retailer Walmart ($WMT), known for its everyday low pricing, reports Thursday, and is better positioned than other retailers to withstand rising price pressures. The pandemic has triggered inflation across the supply chain from labor to raw materials, forcing companies to pass higher prices onto consumers. However, many companies could still not fully offset the impact and that hit their profits.
AMEX:RSPLong
by jfsrevg
1
The Weekly Picture: $SPX vs $RSPThe earnings season enters one of its busiest phases this week with tech giants Microsoft ($MSFT), Apple ($AAPL) and Tesla ($TSLA) are due to report. Investors will be seeking reassurance from earnings result after last week’s selloff, but market volatility looks set to continue for now.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to signal that the central bank is on course to deliver its first rate hike since 2018 in March, in a bid to tackle soaring inflation. There is also data on U.S. Q4 GDP. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. 1. Earnings  Tech giants Microsoft ($MSFT), Apple ($AAPL) and Tesla ($TSLA) are among the big-name companies due to report in what will be a hectic week of earnings results, with investors looking to separate pandemic success stories from fundamentally strong companies. FAANG darling Netflix ($NFLX) tumbled over 20% on Friday, weighing on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, after it forecast new subscriber growth in the first quarter would be less than half of analysts' predictions. Microsoft, which reports Tuesday, is expected to report quarterly revenue of more than $50 billion for the first time, according to data compiled by FactSet. Tesla and Apple, reporting Wednesday and Thursday respectively, are expected to post record profits according to FactSet. Beyond tech, there are a host of other big companies reporting including 3M ($MMM), GE ($GE), IBM ($IBM), Intel ($INTC), Caterpillar ($CAT) and American Express ($AXP). Boeing ($BA), Mastercard ($MA), Visa ($V), McDonald's ($MCD), Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ), and Colgate-Palmolive ($CL) are also scheduled to report. 2. Fed to signal March rate hike Investors are looking to the Fed for more clarity on the future path of interest rates after data last week showed U.S. inflation rising to near forty-year highs. Jerome Powell is expected to indicate that the Fed will wind up its bond purchasing stimulus program on schedule at its March meeting and raise interest rates by a quarter point from current levels close to zero at the same meeting. With markets already pricing in roughly four rate hikes this year investors will also be focusing on what the Fed says about its almost $9 trillion balance sheet. Markets currently expect the Fed to start trimming the balance sheet later in the year as a way to tighten monetary policy. The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting indicated that officials held lengthy discussions about reducing bond holdings. Any indications that the balance sheet could be shrunk faster than in the past could extend the selloff in Treasuries and tech shares. Key Economic Calendar (Weekly) On Thursday the U.S. is to release advance data on fourth quarter gross domestic product with economists expecting annualized growth of 5.3%. Expectations have been pared back in recent weeks as rising coronavirus cases, driven by the Omicron variant hit economic activity. All times listed are EST Monday 3:30: Germany – Manufacturing PMI: seen to retreat to 57.0 from 57.4. Wednesday 14:00: US – Fed Interest Rate Decision 14:30: US – FOMC Press Conference Thursday 8:30: US – GDP: anticipated to have more than doubled, to 5.3% from 2.3%. Top 3 Leading and Lagging Sectors (Weekly) 1. $XLE (Energy) -0.92% 2. $XLP (Consumer Staples) -1.21% 3. $XLU (Utilities) -1.49% Benchmark: $SPY -5.72% 1. $XLY (Consumer Discretionary) -8.62% 2. $XLF (Financial) -7.42% 3. $XLB (Materials) -6.16% Market Breath (Weekly) % of Stocks Above 200 DMA = 31.30% (-28.90%) % of Stocks Above 50 DMA = 22.20% (-47.16%)  Market Technicals (Distribution Cycle Count: Day 6) $SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) – (Net High/Low -688) Markets look set to remain turbulent in the coming week with investors focused on the Fed and earnings. In a continuation of the tech selloff that has pushed the Nasdaq into correction territory, Wall Street’s main indexes closed sharply lower last week. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq posted their largest weekly percentage declines since the start of the pandemic in March 2020. $SPX further declined -5.68%, after breaching the 4,610 support highlighted last week. $SPX is now trading below all major moving averages, the first time since March 2020. The $SPX Net High/Lows also affirmed the bearish theme with further deterioration of -688 companies within its constituents, similarly the lowest level since March 2020. Till date, $SPX have corrected -8.73% from its high (4th January 2022). $RSP have corrected -6.81% from its high (5th January 2022).  With $RSP trading at its highest daily sessional volume on Friday (since 2004), we are likely to see a bounce off 200MA for the indexes this week, if $RSP could hold its Friday low of $152.82. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,330 level, the previous major low established in $SPX during October 2021.
AMEX:RSPLong
by jfsrevg
4
Week ahead – Debates, Speeches, PMI’s & CPI’sWho else feels like this year has gone by so quickly? Each week ahead article, I have been talking about how the election is coming and how volatile times are coming ahead. Now we are neck-deep into election season, with the first one in New Zealand granting Jacinda Ardern and her party a landslide victory, enabling them to govern themselves. All eyes now are on the Presidential Election in the United States and the Brexit outcome between the UK and the EU. Here is your week ahead. Note that Jerome Powell is set to speak on Monday – however, this is regarding digital currencies that may provide good information on his stance on digital currencies, but is unlikely to move the market much unless he provides other viewpoints on the future of the economy. Monday, 19th and Tuesday 20th October – China’s GDP YoY, Third Quarter and PBoC’s Interest rate decision Everyone likes to talk about how well New Zealand handled the Coronavirus, with the nation opting for an elimination strategy rather than a suppression strategy. However, not many talks about China’s statistics. They, too, went with an elimination strategy rather than a suppression strategy and have achieved results similar to that of New Zealand. Coronavirus is all but a memory in Mainland China, especially in Wuhan, where the virus originated. A Bloomberg Poll of economists expects China to a third-quarter economic growth rate of 5.5%, which is near pre-Coronavirus levels. Morgan Stanley believes this is due to “very strong exports and the gradual improvement in domestic consumption,” citing higher exports in the previous month. Furthermore, China’s central bank is set to release its decision on interest rates later this week. Unlike the rest of the world, which cut rates at the start of the Coronavirus pandemic, China opted to restrain in cutting rates in favor of the fiscal policy. Ma Jun, a PBoC adviser, stated earlier this year that “the PBOC doesn’t use its bullets all at once. China has plenty of room in monetary policy”. And it seems like analysts predict to keep it that way, with the consensus being that the PBOC will keep rates unchanged at 3.85% this week ahead. Monday, 19th and Friday, 23rd October – ECB’s President Christine Lagarde speech and EU PMI’s With a second wave of the Coronavirus hitting Europe as they enter into their winter seasons, Christine Lagarde is expected to reiterate further support for the economy and the central bank’s relatively bearish stance. With lax lockdown measures in the UK and Spain, alongside many partial reopening’s around the nations in Europe, has wreaked havoc as the second wave in many countries nearly doubles or even triples the new daily cases seeing the first wave. Furthermore, PMI’s are set to come out for both the EU as a whole and Germany. Analysts predict EU PMI’s to drop below 50, to 49.5, showing a consensus of contraction in manufacturing in October. Wednesday, 21st October – Australia’s retail sales Month over Month Australia has tamed its second outbreak of the Coronavirus, providing the opportunity for a quasi “trans-tasman” bubble that has been talked about between them and New Zealand. As things return to relative normality in Australia, many cities in Melbourne, Victoria, continue to be in a state of lockdown, which may weigh on the Retail Sales figure, which is predicted to drop by 4% this month. Wednesday, 21st October – UK’s CPI The mismanagement of the Coronavirus by Prime Minister Boris Johnson has put the UK in a terrible position. Even with a second lockdown, the Coronavirus continues to post double-digit new cases each day, way more than the first wave. With Boris keen to get business back on track, his focus became on ensuring economic downfall was minimized as much as possible. However, as shown by countries that opted for a full elimination strategy rather than a suppression strategy, the first step in an economic recovery is eliminating the virus. The UK seems to have skipped that bit and opted to recover without fully squashing the virus. This has lead to disastrous consequences, with England’s deputy chief medical officer Professor Jonathan Van-Tam resorting to hopes that the UK can roll out a Coronavirus vaccine “soon after Christmas” A restriction in demand in the UK alongside many subsidies has forced business in the UK to raise their prices – therefore, analysts predict an increase in the CPI this month by 0.5%. Wednesday, 21st October – Canada’s CPI Another country that opted for a relatively loose lockdown – who encouraged, but did not enforce, citizens to stay at home is facing the consequences. A second wave has hit many Canada regions, with 80% of the cases having stemmed from Ontario and Quebec, its two most populated provinces. However, the government still has not ordered a complete lockdown, with Ontario closing certain establishes like gyms, movie theatres, casinos, and restaurants. Analysts predict the rate of CPI increase to drop slightly by 0.7%. Thursday, 22nd October – New Zealand CPI New Zealand has been the poster child for how the world wishes they initially handled the Coronavirus. As I stated many times already, New Zealand opted for an elimination strategy, and has seemed to work. “Hard and Fast,” the Motto Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern went by, seemed to work, with New Zealand back to a relatively normal. The Coronavirus success has also won many voters’ hearts this weekend, with elections giving her and the party a second term with a landslide victory. They retained 49% of the votes, enabling them to govern alone. With that said, there are mixed thoughts regarding CPI figures this week ahead, with last month’s print showing a 1.5% increase. Friday, 23rd October – US Presidential Debate. A lot has happened since the last Presidential Debate. President Donald Trump contracted Coronavirus, a new stimulus bill has been proposed, and Biden’s son Hunter Biden has been in the news for leaked emails. Personally, I do not think the debate will provide much insight into future policies. It will be more comedic than anything. If anything, I believe this is a period where traders and investors should keep trading at a low, as both candidates’ comments may whipsaw the market – as shown by the previous debate. Stay safe, Trade safe.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by BlackBull_Markets
Week ahead – GDP and Inflation. Last week was a bloody week in the markets, with US equities selling off on fears that the market has been overstretched. The NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and the S&P 500 were down 4.52%, 3.66%, and 3.28%, respectively. – talk about NFP As we approach election season in the United States, traders should be looking out for changes in future policies which may whipsaw the market. Investors and traders are heading into a turbulent start of the week, with Hong Kong/ China Tensions increasing as we get close to election season. This may incentivize countries like Australia and the United States to implement policy changes that many move the markets. Leshgo! Here is your week ahead. All dates are in NZDT. Tuesday, 8th September – Japan GDP Growth Annualized It has been a turbulent week for Japan, as total Coronavirus cases are starting to creep up amidst Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s resignation. Furthermore, Typhoon Haishen just landed, causing more disruption to an already chaotic year. Analysts predict a significant drop in GDP growth by 28.6% – Brutal, considering the Japanese economy has been in the slump in the past couple of years. Tuesday 8th and 10th September – Euro Area GDP Growth Quarter over Quarter and ECB Interest Rate Decision. With the European bloc having a relative collective response regarding the pandemic, individual countries have started to release specific stimulus plans. For example, France revealed a 100 billion Euro stimulus plan, the biggest than any other country in Europe. The stimulus is just under 4% of its GDP. Analysts predict a 12.1% drop in their growth rate quarter over quarter, with the ECB expected to leave rates at 0%. Thursday, 10th September – Bank of Canada Interest rate decision Canada has been relatively prosperous in trying to contain the Coronavirus without implementing a strict lockdown. In Quebec, the Coronavirus’s epicenter earlier this year has stated that they plan to have students return to school as soon as possible. Economists predict to the central bank to keep interest rates at 0.25%, with 80% of Economists surveyed by Finder expecting no rate change until 2022. Oxford Economists Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport stated that the Bank of Canada has signaled that they will keep the interest rates at 0.25% “until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.” Friday, 11th September – UK GDP Year over Year As the United Kingdom continues to grapple with the Coronavirus, Prime Minister Boris Johnson insists that Brexit talks should continue with no delay. The United Kingdom has recorded over 347,000 Coronavirus cases, with the UK recording the highest number of daily Coronavirus cases today since May. Saturday, 12th August – United States Inflation Rate Year over Year Similar to Japan, the United States has a turbulent couple of weeks ahead. With main market indices diving, traders and investors should brace for market volatility in the times ahead alongside election season getting into full swing. With the Federal Reserve pledging a new tool combatting inflation, these data figures may be too early to see whether this tool is working. However, a higher than expected figure than the market forecast of 1.2% may see Gold push higher alongside the dollar go lower. Trade safe this week ahead.
TVC:IXIC
by BlackBull_Markets
Nonfarm Payroll, RBA Interest rates – Week aheadBusy week ahead as September kicks in. As New Zealand and the United States elections slowly approach, the Coronavirus pandemic will most likely be the center focus for many parties and how they handle the post Coronavirus world. Here is your week ahead. Tuesday, 1st September – Germany’s Inflation and Unemployment rate Like most of Europe, Germany is experiencing an uptick in cases as a reopening of Europe too early takes its toll. However, this has not stopped protesters storming the German Government building in Berlin alongside Germany’s total cases ticked over 243,000. With prices of oil slowly increasing, analysts expect inflation to increase slightly by 0.1%. Furthermore, with Germany’s unemployment benefit allowing unemployed citizens to claim up to 67% of their previous wage, analysts predict no change in the unemployment rate at 6.4% in the week ahead. Tuesday, 1st September and Wednesday 2nd September – Reserve bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Australia’s Year over Year GDP. Australia continues to fight a hard battle with the Coronavirus, after their original strategy of having no lockdown has lead to massive spikes in Melbourne, Victoria. Australia recorded 123 new cases of the Coronavirus – all in the state of Victoria. Denita Wawn, Master Builders Australia’s Chief Executive, stated that “Our industry is facing a bath… Private sector investment is evaporating, and the government must step in to save businesses and jobs,” conveying how dire the situation is in Australia. However, the Reverse Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 0.25%. Any deviation from this consensus is most likely to move the Australian dollar significantly. Furthermore, Melbourne’s sustained lockdown has seen forecasts of GDP growth to drop to -5.3%, down 6.7% GDP growth of 1.4% in the previous quarter. Tuesday 1st September – Italy’s Markit PMI. One of the country’s worst-hit with the Coronavirus, Italy, has recorded over 268,000 cases with cases continue to spike, with newly registered cases yesterday just over 1,200. Italy is predicted to be one of the first to get a grant from the Bloc’s 750 Billion Euro grant as it suffers from worsening GDP growth pre-Coronavirus. Italy is set to release Manufacturing PMI’s to 52, slightly higher from 51.9 last month. Tuesday 1st September – Euro core inflation rate Year over Year Europe is currently experiencing a resurgence in Coronavirus cases as an early lifting of lockdowns just before Summer has forced a spike across Europe. However, many countries are against a second lockdown due to the Economic calamity it will bring. Analysts predict a drop in the inflation growth rate to 0.9%, down from 1.2% in July. Non-farm payroll – Friday, 4th September The United States continues to post daily double-digit Coronavirus cases as their total case count tops 6 Million. As elections approach in just over a month, President Donald Trump continues to let the economy open to win over voters. Non-farm payrolls are predicted to be just over 1.4 million, down from a previous 1.73 million print. As usual, we have many critical economic events that traders need to watch out for to avoid being whipsawed by the market in the week ahead. Trade Cautiously.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
Events to Look Out for Next WeekBy Andria Pichidi - July 6, 2019 An interesting week is coming up, following a confirmation that the US and China will resume trade negotiations.Market attention is also honed in on the central banks, as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress. In the UK, the focus turns to GDP. Monday – 8 July 2019 Industrial Production and Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 06:00) – In Germany, the surplus is expected to increase to EUR 18.6 bln in May, from EUR 17 bln in the previous month. Overall exports are clearly impacted by geopolitical trade tensions and the risk of US tariffs on auto imports from the EU is still hanging over the manufacturing sector and spells further troubles ahead. Meanwhile, Industrial Production is expected to be corrected -0.4% m/m in May, from -1.9% last month. Tuesday – 9 July 2019 JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April. Wednesday – 10 July 2019 Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – June’s Chinese CPI is expected to drop to -0.1%. The overall reading is estimated to be unchanged. Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing & Industrial Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. May’s GDP is expected to be lower at -0.7% m/m following the -0.4% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have increased, with industrial output providing an upwards contribution of 1.5% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have risen to 2.3% from its -3.9% last month. Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) –Last time, Bank of Canada held the policy rate setting steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations, while the statement was largely optimistic in terms of the growth outlook. The expectations remain for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020. FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) -The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on June 19, FOMC left rates unchanged but the statement, which removed the word “patient”, along with the inflation outlook, the dot-plot, and Bullard’s dissent in favor of easing, made for a dovish stance. Thursday – 11 July 2019 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June. Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May. Fed Chair Powell Testimony (USD, GMT 14:00) Friday – 12 July 2019 Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to hold at 0.1% in June, and at 0.2% in the core index. These readings would keep in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.3%-1.9% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 2.1%-2.5% range. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
by HotForex
1
Events to Look Out For Next WeekBy Andria Pichidi - June 1, 2019 Trade and geopolitics will continue to dominate the headlines into June along with PM May’s official resignation on Friday. Top of the agenda next week will be the RBA and ECB policy meetings, but a lot of attention will also be on the contemporaneous data on the May US Jobs report, the global PMI outcomes and the European Q1 GDP. Monday – 03 June 2019 [* ]Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to slip into the neutral zone in May, after the weak Manufacturing PMI signalled contraction yesterday. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 53.5 in May from 52.8 in April, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Overall, we’ve seen a stabilization in sentiment since the late-2018 pullback. Tuesday – 04 June 2019 Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail sales are expected to come out lower, standing at 0.2% m/m in April, after drifting to 0.3% increase in March from the 0.9% high in February. Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) –A 25 bp reduction to 1.25% is anticipated from the current 1.50% rate setting as the RBA adds accommodation amid a slowing economy and low inflation. The minutes from the early May policy review were dovish-leaning, adding to the expectation that rates will be reduced in June. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for May is expected to drop back to 1.4% y/y from 1.7%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 1.3% y/y. Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT N/A) Wednesday – 05 June 2019 Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Gross Domestic Product figure is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country, closely followed by the unemployment rate. The final Q1 Australian GDP is expected to grow to 0.3% from 0.2%. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to edge up to 55.7 in April from a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. Thursday – 06 June 2019 Event of the week – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy rates on hold at the June council meeting, but the presser is likely to be very dovish, with the guidance on rates likely to be pushed well into 2020. The details on the new TLTRO programme are also due to be released and are likely to be generous, but rate tiering doesn’t seem to be on the agenda for now, as the assessment of the possible side effects on negative interest rates continues. Friday – 07 June 2019 Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – Along with Thursday’s employment data, payrolls are important in gauging how many people are employed in non-agricultural businesses. Jobs are expected to have increased in May, at 190k following a 263k increase in April. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, while average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%. Employment and Unemployment (CAD, GMT 12:30) – After the 106.5k surge in April employment, which notched a new all-time record 1-month gain, the Canadian unemployment rate is expected to have increased further in May. Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
by HotForex
USDCHF week ahead overview Well formed channel on 4H chart. 3 consecutive bullish weeks for usd/chf Daily MA shows upside momentum Pin bar formed around channel low on daily chart , followed by bullish engulfing bar. We still dont know if the price will rally for new highs , the confirmation we looking for is 4H chart MA cross and start scalping on 15m chart in the way of the trend. If not then price will rally up to the middle of previous high , then we might see consolidation around MA cross , followed by bearish price action and this is where we can take short scalps on 15m chart with high risk/reward ratio.
by samgeorgev