EUR/USD SELL SIGNALHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another free trade-plan.
This is meant to be a preparation for you guys.
We will obviously have to wait for a confirmation before we execute a short-trade.
Market Sell: 1,11500
Stop-loss: 1,12300
Target 1: 1,11300
Target 2: 1,09850
Target 3: 1,08875
Target 4: 1,08015
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Irasor
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Weeklyanalysis
BTC update! What's next???These past few weeks has been really bearish! The C&H pattern did not hold, and we broke down (see previous post). This break down started a very steep decline in price.
In the chart above we can see BTC dropped almost 53% towards 3800 ~ 3900 USD. It broke right through the 100 and 200 weekly MA. There BTC got a lot of support from a high volume node, before bouncing back above the large yellow trendline. Currently, BTC is hanging at the 200 weekly MA combined with the 0.786 FIB level. BTC never closed below the 200 weekly MA. If it does close below, we could be in for a far bigger decline than we experience the last few weeks. The coming hours are very important!
A close above would confirm the strong support at the 200 weekly MA, and probably result in a longer consolidation/sideway movement. The CHOP index needs to recover and prepare for a next big move. If this happens, we need to keep an eye on the smaller timeframes, because all smaller timeframes are in a downtrend as well. Changes start from the inside out. Uptrend on the smaller timeframes will translate in an uptrend in the larger timeframe.
Until we close the weekly chart, I wouldn't recommend taking any long or short position. We need a confirmation first! If we consolidate, look for an upward or downward channel to trade. If we close below, I'll short from 5000 USD with a price target of 3900 USD (high volume node support).
Stay safe and focus on price. Don't let news headline blur your view!
The week results: the epidemic & the Friday bloodbathThe past week has so far been considered the most eventful of the last few months. And the point is not even in the number of new events that took place, but in the price dynamics in the financial markets. One of the strongest drops in the US stock market in history (during the week Nasdaq lost up to 15% of its capitalization), the Fear Index grew almost three times, the oil decreased by almost 20%.
The culmination was a natural "blood bath", which was arranged by traders in the financial markets on Friday, when, for example, gold was reduced by $80 during the day.
How did markets get to such a life? We wrote about this quite actively for more than six months and now we are faced with the results of those temporary bombs that were planted.
Epidemic coronavirus is still able to be a "black swan", which freed all the energy that accumulated markets. More precisely, not all, because it is still only in the process of development.
The main event of the past week - the coronavirus epidemic ceased to be a local problem in China and became a global disaster (the number of newly diagnosed cases outside China steadily exceeded the number of cases in China). It was after this that investors became completely scared.
And if the week began with the fact that the problems were in South Korea, Japan, Italy, and Iran, then it ended with a radical expansion of the list. Now it has the USA, France, Germany, Spain, Great Britain, Singapore, Malaysia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and many others. The total number of cases in the world over the week has grown significantly and has already exceeded 7,000.
Naturally, now no one has any doubts that the world economy will suffer and will suffer very much. Out of habit, everyone turned their eyes to the Central Banks, which have recently been playing the role of traditional savers of the economy.
Fed Chairman Powell said at the end of last week that the US Central Bank is ready to act. Accordingly, the markets instantly rebuilt their expectations and now assess the probability of a rate cut in March at 100%. Typically, 95% of traders expect a decline of 0.5%. So the problems of the dollar on Thursday and Friday are generally understandable. One side. On the other hand, other central banks, in particular the ECB, may also lower rates.
Thus, we continue to consider the growth of the EURUSD pair abnormal and this week will be very active in selling the euro against the US dollar. Not forgetting, of course, about the feet.
In general, in the current conditions, when the most terrible volatility has increased many times, a trader can do it - work without stops and try to impose his will on the market. So we’ll definitely put the stops - it’s better to re-enter the position when the dust settles, rather than stand against the market and lose the deposit in one day, essentially out of the blue.
What else do we plan to do this week? Definitely buy gold and at the same time buy a pair of USDJPY. It’s a kind of under-hedge on safe-haven assets that did absolutely nothing on Friday, but we believe that the markets will return to some semblance of rationality and this hedge will work.
This week, we are inclined to start buying oil, because a) the achievement of the $ 44 mark for the WTI brand corresponds to our goals, which we announced when it was still in the region of $ 60; b) OPEC is seriously concerned about what is happening, and this week there will be a meeting within the framework of which amendments may be made to the OPEC+ agreement - they announce an additional reduction in oil production by 1 million BPD. It is very serious. But again, these purchases are a rather risky attempt to catch a U-turn, which is not yet available. So we advise fans to take risks, do not forget about the stops, and we recommend that conservative traders put the oil trade on hold or at least wait until the end of the week and OPEC's decision.
Week Results: Virus, NFP, Pound & Investor ConcernsA week in the financial markets was held in the chronicles of the coronavirus. The epidemic is still under development. The number of deaths exceeded 700, and the number of deaths approached 40,000. A number of quarantined cities in China, many plants are idle, are already starting to disrupt the functioning of the global economy: some companies outside of China cannot continue the production process, since components from China do not arrive, some ( like Toyota and Honda) temporarily shut down their Chinese capacities and sharply lose in production volumes, some (like Apple) close their stores in China.
And if on Monday and Tuesday last week, the markets still tried to pretend that they did not notice this, then towards the end of the week even excellent NFP figures could not inspire American investors to buy on the stock market.
And although the VIX Fear Index fell by 15% over the week, there is a feeling that the time of unbridled euphoria in financial markets is coming to an end. And this means that now is the time to start opening short against risky assets. Moreover, the markets marked the highs, respectively, the points for placing stops are obvious, and the stops themselves are small especially with respect to the goals that can and should be set.
The week as a whole turned out to be very successful for the dollar and ended on a major note: NFP figures came out well above market expectations (+225K with a forecast of +165K). In principle, employment data from ADP (+291K) were prepared by the markets for good numbers, but until the very last it was difficult to believe in them. The overall view was somewhat spoiled by weaker than expected growth rates of hourly wages, as well as unemployment, which went above forecasts.
The main losers in the foreign exchange market were the euro and the pound. Traditionally, the reason for the sale of the euro was the weak macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. So German industrial production in December literally collapsed by 3.5% during a month, recalling that the recession is not just an economic term, but also one of the aspects of reality. As for the pound, the pressure on it was due to growing fears that the UK and the EU would not be able to agree on a trade agreement until the end of 2020.
Our trading plan for this week is next. We continue to look for points for purchases of gold and the Japanese yen anyway (unless an ultra-effective vaccine is found and the epidemic of coronavirus is quickly over). We will wait until the euphoria around the dollar subsides, and we will look for points for its sales. The pound is not bad, the Canadian dollar looks interesting. We won’t touch the euro - the single European currency seems too toxic in the light of the latest data from Germany. While oil is below 51.20 (WTI benchmark) - we sell it with stop-flips above 52. In general, the situation with oil looks rather uncertain. OPEC +’s decision to expand the decline in oil production by 600K bd is, under normal conditions, the strongest bullish signal.
GWO Double Bottom 200SMA GWO has recently passed the 200MA on the weekly chart signalling a strong reversal in the price trend from bearish to bullish. after price showed a double bottom reversal, the price rebounded to break the resistance and cross over the 200SMA indicating a strong bullish trend. Price showed a similar pattern of a double bottom reversal crossing the 200MA in late 2011/early 2012 leading to a strong rally seeing the price increase almost 50% after breaking the resistance. the price target is 45-47.50 (35%)
#EURUSD #EURO Weekly Analysis: Bullish Zone Ahead with 61.8 FibPlease watch DXY analysis first because DXY and EURUSD are usually inversely correlated. EURUSD Is expected to fall for a day or two to test and retest few important levels. However it has been a game of 61.8 fib levels so far. So a bullish zone lies just ahead.
EURJPY – Price is at waiting bullish momentWelcome to our Academy. We’re here to help you achieve what you have been looking for.
Use our free analysis where you have everything you need for potencial trade ideas and profit.
EURJPY – Price is at waiting bullish moment
Trend : Strong Buy
Support/Resistance:
R5: 124.680
R4: 123.517
R3: 123.392
R2: 122.526
R1: 121.751
S1: 121.354
S2: 119.996
Price action:
This currency pair is at the moment on very strong bullish edge. Because we can't decide yet, it is better to wait for finnal Elite strategy sign. For everyone who is not yet Elite member we recomend that price broke First resistance level and then test Second resistance level. If Buyers are able to break second important resistance level which is marked as last daily higher high, then price is expected to see following targets.
Potencial trade idea:
Bulls targets:
T1: 122.526
T2: 123.392
T3: 123.517
T4: 124.680
Bears targets:
T1: 121.751
NOTE – We are trading EURJPY via the preferred trading setups by EliteFxAcademy
Disclaimer: Martin’s views on the Chart analysis is ment as a trading advice for education terms; Education terms include: trading consistency to everyone who is reading this blog; for every advance student and for every Elite student who is using this analysis for managing his equity by Elite strategy and custom indicator. This analysis is understandable and transparent for all Elite students. This is a free content which is based from Academy in term of transparency to support and following progress to everyone. We know that there is always possible way that market can pull you out even when you follow our analysis blog and advice for a trade. We don’t publish where you have to have your risk management – Stop Loss, because, it would not be fair to Elite members, who learned this techniques in our Elite course.
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Elite strategy, Custom Indicator, Fundamental Analysis , Tehnical analysis, Price action, Advanced strategies, Trading Education
Good trading!
Elitefxacademy
#GBPUSD Top Down Fibonacci Confluence Weekly AnalysisHi Traders, Here is weekly top down analysis of GBPUSD using fibonacci confluence. I am bearish on GBPUSD for now and based on few levels it can be bullish. But we must remember that we have Brexit coming too which can make this pair drop by a lot.
Please hit the like button and drop a comment or query.
#EURUSD Top Down Fibonacci Confluence Weekly AnalysisHi Traders, Here is top down analysis of EURUSD using fibonacci confluence and harmonic patterns. As you will notice that how wonderfully fibonacci levels and fibonacci extensions work in the market. Currently the set up is very bullish in the medium to long term. But we are watching the current important level for that to happen.
Hit the like button and leave a comment if you find a value in this analysis or have any query.
Waiting For The Entry For A Real Long!On the weekly time frame we can see that wave 3 seems to have completed to the downside and I am now looking for an entry trigger to trade wave 4 to the top of the blue structure.
I will be looking at the H4 time frame for entry signals.
Happy Trading!
Linton White
JP Markets
South Africa
#GBPUSD - Watch 38.2 Fib For Short & Long - Weekly AnalysisHi Traders, GBPUSD has been falling down after test of 61.8 fibonacci level but that is expected because of completion of a harmonic pattern. The last bound was from 38.2 fib level of this pattern and now if that level is broken, we can expect to move towards 50.0 or 61.8. At 50% we have confluence of 200SMA, trend line. So we must watch that area for taking profits on short trade and going long.
Please like, follow and share if you find value in this analysis video
#EURUSD Positioning For Huge Rally - Top Down Weekly AnalysisHi Traders, In this top down weekly analysis we see where EURUSD is going and what has been causing to reverse at various points. We also see how Fibonacci plays out in the market along with other factors such as trend lines, support and resistance, moving averages. We look at how to identify W and M patterns and use then accurately with fibonacci ratios on multiple time frame for accurate entry, stop and exits.
Please like, follow and share if you find value in this analysis video.
BTCUSD Bearish FormationBitcoin on the higher time frames created a bearish formation on the lows. on the 2D it's a Triangle which the measuring point would be the bottom trend line (Macro descending channel) .
The 2D SMA 200 could be a Support but I don't think it'll hold. Then there is the bottom horizontal support line. It could bounce on there even it can go through and fake the breakage.
2D Stochs are rejected by the Bullish Control Zone:
The VPVR on the $6000 horizontal has the last node of the populated area:
Hidden Bearish Divergence on 2D RSI(14) is present:
Although the Divergence is present in the Bearish control zone and it's a Hidden . So I don't put too much weigh on that. But it can drive the price to the bottom of the range and the horizontal support which is approx. $6800 .
So after all, if BTC Close a 2D candle below $6900 , the downside chain reaction would be started and could bring it the low $6000 . From there probably a bounce and ranging ( and even downside continuation ). But before all this BTC could pump from here to the upside of the channel but if this happens nothing will change all of this because the Weekly is on a DownTrend . when a Weekly candle closes above $9600 it would make a Higher High on the Weekly scale, but until then the Weekly and higher time frames are bearish .
-Hashem