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EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 23rd January 2022EURUSD pulled back deeper than expected but still found support at the bottom of a rising channel. While the overall trend is clearly bearish, the 2 months bullish trend still holds and we could expect a stronger rebound from the current demand level towards 1.14. This week, we will look to buy at the beginning while the price is still at the bottom. We may attempt to sell again when it reaches the supply level at 1.14 as this may also develop into another bearish wave.
Short
by AlgoVenture
Gold weekly analysis: The USD in under pressureThe dollar has posted its worst weekly performance in five months as it closes out the week. China's gross domestic product (GDP) is higher than expected is at the top of all of the other happenings this week. We will be keeping an eye on various data points throughout the week. It was the largest weekly loss in the general index of the US dollar since August of last year when it closed the trading session on Friday, the 14th of January, at levels of 95.14, after testing its lowest level in two months at 94.60 midweek, as the US dollar ignored all the news that supports the speed with which the US Federal Reserve is tightening policy. Because of his monetary policy, which includes raising US interest rates more quickly during the current year and raising expectations that what will raise interest rates four times during the current year rather than three times as previously expected, interest rates are expected to be submitted four times during the current year. At the beginning of the week, statements by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced these expectations, as Powell stated in his testimony before Congress that the US Federal Reserve must raise interest rates quickly to counteract the effects of accelerating inflation. According to the most recent figures, the consumer price index in the United States of America increased at an annual rate of 7 percent in December, compared to 6.8 percent in the previous reading, in line with expectations for the fastest rate of inflation growth in 40 years. In November, the consumer price index increased at an annual rate of 6.8 percent, compared to 6.8 percent in the previous reading. The dollar did not benefit in any way from all of this, and despite the positive news that dominated most of last week's sessions for the US dollar, the dollar continued to decline sharply. However, I believe this can be explained by the beginning of the year and the construction of new centers, especially given the high expectations of pricing an opportunity greater than 90 percent. Moreover, according to the FedWatch CME Group tool, what will raise the interest rate in March, and it will be presented a total of four times during the current calendar year, starting in March. One of the most recent data released last week was the December retail sales data from the United States, which came in below expectations and disappointed as sales fell by 1.9 percent in December, raising concerns about the economy and rising inflationary pressures on consumers spending. Aas fundamentally the USD is under pressure, so the gold still has chances to go upside in the coming days. Check out the H4 chart to better understand. What is it that the markets are looking forward to this week? Several important economic reports are expected to be released during the sessions of the current week, and the markets are anticipating them. We began the day with data from China's growth and retail sales, which were released during the Asian session, as well as minutes from the Central Bank of Japan's meeting, inflation data from Canada and the United Kingdom, labor market data from Australia and the United Kingdom, and manufacturing data from the United States of America. Data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics in the Asian session today, Monday, showed that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 4 percent in the fourth and last quarter of 2021, exceeding expectations of growth of approximately 3.7 percent. On the other hand, retail sales fell short of expectations, with annual sales growth slowing to 1.7 percent, down from 3.9 percent in November and expectations of 3.8 percent in December. On the other hand, industrial production increased by approximately 4.3 percent in December, compared to a growth of 3.8 percent in November, exceeding expectations of a gain of 3.7 percent, while the rate of investment in fixed assets increased by approximately 4.9 percent. The Bank of Japan is featured prominently on the front page. The Bank of Japan is expected to announce its monetary policy tomorrow, Tuesday, during the Asian session, with expectations indicating that the Bank of Japan will maintain its monetary policy and interest rates at -0.10 percent. The sharp rise in the value of the Japanese yen over the past week may explain why the Bank of Japan has hinted that it may impose strict measures shortly, particularly in light of the rise in inflation in Japan, which is in line with the global trend. On the other hand, Japanese bond yields saw significant increases last week, with the 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level in more than a year on concerns that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy shortly. We will keep an eye on various data points throughout the week. Today, Monday will be a trading holiday in the United States observant of Martin Luther King Day. At the same time, manufacturing sales and the Bank of Canada survey of business outlook will be released from Canada in the late afternoon and evening. During the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy, while during the European trading session, we will be looking at data from the British labor market, the ZEW index from Germany, and the Eurozone, and during the American trading session, we will be looking at the Empire Estate manufacturing index from the United States of America. Thursday's economic calendar includes inflation data from the United Kingdom in the European period and Canada in the American session and statements from Bank of England governor Mark Carney at the end of the American session. On Wednesday, inflation data will be released in European and American sessions. What will monitor Thursday's labor market data from Australia (unemployment rate and change in employment) in the Asian session? At the same time, the European region will release the final inflation reading in the European period - in the American session, the Philadelphia manufacturing index, weekly unemployment benefits, and home sales will be removed, among other things. The final session of the week is on Friday. The Bank of Japan meeting minutes will be released during the Asian session, and we will be keeping an eye on retail sales in the United Kingdom and Canada during the European and American sessions, respectively.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Trading_Expert
2
Nasdaq: Weekly Forecast 16th January 2022Nasdaq is no doubt in a bull market even though it has ranged for the past 2 months and seems to be breaking lower. However, it has repeatedly create a new wave of rally every times it reaches the black MA, rebounded off, then retest again before it really takes off. As of now, the market has completed a retest and we are seeing a rebound again which may very well be the beginning of yet another rally to a new high. This week, we will focus on buying, likely to buy at the beginning as we are expecting little to no retracement before it reaches 16300.
ULong
by AlgoVenture
3
Gold: Weekly Forecast 16th January 2022Gold rebounded off well from a rising trendline, found resistance at 1829 but stayed closed to it. The fact that the market is constantly rejected at 1829 may cause a deeper pullback towards the downside before it garner stronger buyers. A minor rising trendline was also broken below after multiple rejection at the current high. This week, we will focus on selling at the beginning, looking for a better price to sell at 1823. Later on and should the price comes down, we will look for support at the demand level 1797 to see if there's an opportunity to buy again.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by AlgoVenture
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 16th January 2022EURUSD has broken above a 7-month falling trendline, opening the door for more buyers. However, the bigger picture shows a clear downtrend and the recent increase in the price could be just another major pullback. Resistance was also seen at the supply level of 1.1450, causing EURUSD to give up over 70 pips before the week ends. Nevertheless, a direction needs to be picked and we will follow the recent bullish trend and look for buying opportunities as the price pulls back a little more or finds support at the demand level 1.1370.
Long
by AlgoVenture
EURUSD - LONG TERM VIEWFX:EURUSD is currently trading in a range on weekly and daily basis. The crucial resistance level is 1.14246. The next two crucial levels are 1.15924 and 1.17006. If the trend line and the range breaks, these crucial levels are the next to reach . The forecast line is being followed from 2016, at 2020, we have seen a big volume when the price reached near to this line again. Trade Details : Trade Active: When range, trendline breaks Entry at or below = 1.14246 Stop Loss = 1.11679 , or the Red Forecast Line Target 1: 1.15924 Target 2: 1.17006 Trading period: 5-6 weeks or longer Take your trade only after doing your own analysis and plans. Happy Trading :)
Long
by Rajat_the_HERO
Gold: Weekly Forecast 9th January 2022Gold came down again after a month-long of upward consolidation but found support at demand level 1787. The trend is currently still ranging and the price is now trading right in the middle of the entire symmetrical triangle. This week, we will observe for further support at the demand level 1787 and look for buying opportunity if it holds. Otherwise, the price could break down and go lower towards the 1767 demand level and we can look for buying opportunities again at the bottom of the symmetrical triangle.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
2
WTI: Weekly Forecast 2nd January 2022WTI found resistance at 77 after another rally at the beginning of the week. While the oil prices have been on the rise through December, it is becomingly obvious that this is part of a pullback for the bearish trend that formed through November previously. The price has also came down on the last trading day which did cause some breakdown of its current bullish structure. This week, we will be waiting to sell the pullback from 76.20 onwards, aiming for 73. P.S. Give a thumbs up if you like our idea:) Do follow us as we will be providing daily trading ideas as a continuation to our weekly forecast. Cheers!
TVC:USOILShort
by AlgoVenture
1
Gold: Weekly Forecast 2nd January 2022Gold rose for the 3rd week since it took off from the demand level at 1768. As the price reaches a key resistance at 1829, little resistance is seen and thus could extend the rally going into the coming week. The gold is expected to continue rising through the vacuumed area from the current 1829 to the key supply level at 1850. This week, we will wait for a pullback towards 1818 to buy again and aim for the top of the entire symmetrical triangle, as well as the key supply level at 1850. However, we also see a good chance of pulling deeper towards 1805 should the current trend continues to follow its whippy structure. P.S. Give a thumbs up if you like our idea:) Do follow us as we will be providing daily trading ideas as a continuation to our weekly forecast. Cheers!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
1
GBPUSD: Weekly Forecast 2nd January 2022GBPUSD stayed very bullish for the 2nd week since the BOE started raising rates. There's no doubt that the pound can continue to climb higher but will face strong resistance as it approaches a major supply level at 1.3560. The supply level also sits well at the top of a 6-month falling channel, together with the golden ratio. This week, we will wait for a pullback towards 1.3500 for an intraday buy and look out for strong resistance from 1.3560 onwards. P.S. Give a thumbs up if you like our idea:) Do follow us as we will be providing daily trading ideas as a continuation to our weekly forecast. Cheers!
Long
by AlgoVenture
2
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 2nd January 2022EURUSD has been squeezing out more bulls and managed to stand above an one and a half-month consolidation. While the overall trend is still clearly bearish, there's just about enough gap between the current price and the supply zone at 1.1440 for another couple of bullish run in the intraday. Therefore, we will wait for a pullback towards 1.1350 for an intraday buy in the coming week while looking out for a strong reversal as it approaches 1.1440 right at the top of a 7-month falling channel. P.S. Give a thumbs up if you like our idea:) Do follow us as we will be providing daily trading ideas as a continuation to our weekly forecast. Cheers!
Long
by AlgoVenture
4
Forex Forecast: Pairs in FocusWhen starting the trading week, it is a good idea to look at the big picture of what is developing in the market as a whole and how such developments and affected by macro fundamentals and market sentiment. There are a few long-term trends beginning to reassert themselves, so it can be a profitable time to trade the markets. Big Picture 12th December 2021 Last week’s Forex market was very quiet leading up to Friday’s release of US inflation data, which was expected to be the key driver of market movements for the week. However, the data arrived almost completely in line with the consensus forecast, and the market did not react very strongly to it. This meant the week ended quietly with low price volatility. Despite the long-term bullish US dollar trend, the greenback fell a little over the course of the week, and it also fell after the US inflation data were released. The inflation data showed that annualized US inflation is now increasing at a rate of 6.8%, the highest seen since 1982. However, the pace of the increase lessened, with the recent month’s increase coming in at only 0.8% compared to 0.9% in the previous month. It might be that the slight reduction in the pace of the increase is seen as significant enough to prevent more panic over inflation. Risk sentiment improved over the week, with most stock markets higher and the benchmark US S&P 500 Index rising to approach its all-time high price. Most global stock markets rose over the week, as did the Australian and Canadian dollars which are commodity currencies and key risk barometers. The improvement in risk sentiment globally is probably mostly because there is an increasing feeling that the omicron coronavirus variant will not turn out to be as economically destructive as had been initially feared. Safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and the US dollar are all lower. The precious metal silver fell to a new 50-day low price after falling quite strongly for several days. It bounced back a little on Friday but remains quite close to 1-year lows. Trend traders may be interested in going short on Silver. I wrote in my previous piece last week that the best trades for the week were likely to be short of AUD/USD and NZD/USD, following daily (New York closes) at new lows. Fortunately, neither of these currency pairs made a new low at the end of any day during the week, so this was sufficient to stay out of what would have been losing trades. Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment The headline takeaways from last week were: US CPI (inflation) data came in very slightly higher than had been expected and is now increasing at an annualized rate of 6.8%, the highest seen in 39 years. However, the pace of the monthly increase slowed slightly from 0.9% to 0.8%. Markets reacted little during the rest of Friday’s session. A coronavirus variant of concern, named the omicron variant, has continued to spread around the world. The variant is heavily mutated, and latest studies suggest that it has a strong capacity to evade current vaccines. However, latest studies suggest that a maximal course of vaccination will still offer strong protection against severe disease. The Reserve Banks of Australia and Canada held their respective interest rates and monetary policies steady in their monthly policy releases during the week. This probably had little impact on either currency, both of which rose firmly. The coming week is likely to see a higher amount of volatility due to the busy economic calendar, with direction likely to be determined partly by the upcoming FOMC release and partly by how dangerous the omicron variant is shown to be as more tests are performed on it. The coming week’s major scheduled economic releases will be: FOMC statement, federal funds rate, and economic projections. Monthly policy releases from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank. British and Canadian CPI (inflation) data. New Zealand GDP data. US retail sales and PPI data. German manufacturing and services PMI data. Australian employment data. Last week saw the global number of confirmed new coronavirus cases fall for the first time in seven weeks. Approximately 56% of the global population has now received at least one vaccination. Pharmaceutical industry analysts now expect a large majority of the world’s population will receive a vaccine by mid-2022. The omicron variant has been confirmed as present in fifty-seven countries. The strongest growths in new confirmed coronavirus cases overall right now are happening in Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Jordan, South Korea, Laos, Luxembourg, Mali, Nigeria, Norway, Poland, Portugal, San Marino, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Trinidad, and the UK. Technical Analysis U.S. Dollar Index The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a bearish inside bar last week, after making its highest weekly closing price in over one year the previous week. While one weekly candlestick of a relatively small size is not enough to invalidate a long-term trend, it is notable that there is clearly strong resistance here, which has had some impact. This suggest that despite the trend, we may be due for a bearish pullback or even a reversal. However, probability suggests this strong long-term bullish trend is likely to continue, so there is no strong reason not to be prepared to a take a long USD trade over the coming week, but do not expect bullish momentum in the USD will necessarily save you. XAG/USD Silver priced in US dollars made its lowest weekly close since July 2020. However, there are a few potentially supportive inflection points below the current price down to $21.45. It is also true that the pace of the bearish decline has slowed, and that Friday was an up day. Therefore, it is far from clear that silver is going to decline now with good momentum, but there does seem to be a potential for a sharp breakdown once the price gets established below $21.45. Traders may wish to short this at the weekly open or at least once the price turns bearish over a few hours, but more cautious traders might want to wait for a daily close below $21.45 or at least $21.53. USD/TRY The Turkish lira has been falling very strongly and losing an enormous amount of its value. The pace of the decline slowed last week, but we again saw the lira reach a new record low against the US dollar and close at a record low too. There is a strong trend here against the lira, the problem for traders is that it is very difficult to exploit this as Forex brokers are asking for huge spreads and overnight fees on long positions. However, the odds remain strong in favor of further declines in the Turkish lira. S&P 500 Index After trading below its 50-day moving average just last week, the major US stock index has risen strongly. Although the price did not trade yet at a new all-time high, the index made its highest ever daily close on Friday. The weekly candlestick was solidly bullish and closed extremely close to the top of its price range. This, and the record high close, are bullish signs. The S&P 500 Index looks likely to remain a good potential buy in the current “risk off” market environment, provided we get no nasty surprises from the omicron coronavirus variant. Bottom Line I see the best opportunities in the financial markets this week as likely to be long of the S&P 500 Index and short of Silver in US Dollar terms following a daily (New York) close below $21.45.
TVC:DXY
by SmoothJB